Three reasons, I am not optimistic about the future-Papi Papi sauce sauce, net red-IT information

Reticulocyte recently is very hot, it is too hot, various myths network red makes hundreds of millions of water myth, makes many people in droves.

Red circle of friends in one of the most popular network these days is Papi sauce, Luo Zhenyu Tan and Papi sauce in a circle of friends a photo of that paragraph did not know who made the bias, then crowding the screen this afternoon to raise 12 million , it is fire too much.

I do not deny that I am Papi sauce user, her I now will look to gain recognition of the capital, I bless and happy, after all, open a new form. But in the long run, there are three reasons I don′t like Papi sauce.

1, how to continue to meet rising expectations

Anyway today was going to offend people, then give examples of logic thinking. Dad came to Beijing to help me decorate the House a few years ago, apart from boring I recommend him logic thinking, he found very interesting, broaden their ideas and vision. Home a year later, he asked me why logic thinking and now said no as well? I say that is because you have made progress, none has slipped. That logic thinking up behind output content, already can′t keep up with users ′ expectations. I believe there are many everyday listening to 60s voice of logic thinking and video of each logic thinking to see the man, a week, a month or even a year, and not listening to/watching for ages.

If we can continue to produce good content, and meet or exceed the user′s expectations, this is a huge challenge. Logic thinking I am not saying that this thing is hard to do, but almost all of them are very difficult to do.

In fact, in my opinion, logic thinking has been done very well, micro-letter has more than 6 million users, more than 1 million customers, is a model for others to study. But Papi sauce can do this thing, in the long run it is difficult to say. And Papi sauce now say was riff, would you subscribe to some of the jokes, jokes, fun, when you see every day, and now? The more popular content, users easier access, more easily fatigued, most users a fresh sense of the past, no stimulation of the consequences will be dire.

2, the user is not enough vertical precision

We make products, needs to make very clear the core users of the product pictures according to certain characteristics common to the crowd, make commercial behaviour.

Are examples of logic thinking, Luo said he is selling knowledge, his core group is also interested in people who want to gain knowledge, so he can sell books, can sell tickets for the speech, or other knowledge-related physical or virtual goods. What does Papi sauce can sell? Joke books, joke books sell? Not many people want to buy it.

Papi paste content that anyone can see, so it gets the user is easy, but it is a double-edged sword, because easy side note value is low. If you do not do in-depth analysis, it′s hard for me all of a sudden to Papi core users to make portraits of sauce, or just a simple word: people, three words: normal, nine words: sight and sound no problem man, n word: people who use computers and cell phones to surf further subdivided is difficult.

When your portrait is hard to describe the core users of the product, the commercial value of the future will be very low, Papi sauce now go into this kind of vicious circle.

3, not IP

IP has recently been fire, someone must say Papi sauce is also good IP. I can only say that Papi sauces at present only a very small IP, whether it′s fan size or depth of the content, it is difficult to form a large IP.

We by know of and funny related of network IP has absolutely series, and big Peng of cock silk men series, but these are not a people do out of, are is set whole team of power, and company of resources and capital of promoted, has times of opportunities, also has big scale user of recognized, not unilateral of efforts, but stereo of of to build, is behind of box office big sold of movie.

Now Papi sauce, is can I do it? I do not know in the future is a big unknown.

At last

I, as a people who have never met each other and Papi sauce, the circumstances obtain limited information from the outside world, only from the perspective of industry observers, based on the analysis of the above 3 points.

I believe that old and actually vote for Papi sauce must have had their reasons, because, after all, there are some things I don′t see think of, such as Papi sauce there are many cattle x no show. They obtain information about Papi sauce than I do might view than me in the long run, higher dimension than I see things, I hope so.

Although I very much hope that the Papi sauce will be very successful in the future, but this splash of cold water is poured.

Author: V5 public contract number: sjydhlw

三个理由，我不看好Papi酱的未来 - Papi酱,网红 - IT资讯

网红最近非常火，实在是太火了，各种神话级网红造就数亿流水的神话，让很多人趋之若鹜。

这几天朋友圈里最火的网红就是Papi酱了，从罗振宇在朋友圈里晒出和Papi酱的合影，到那段不知道谁编的瞎话，再到今天下午刷屏的融资1200万，实在是火过头了。

我不否认我也是Papi酱的用户，她发的内容我现在都会看，对于获得资本的认可，我也表示祝福和高兴，毕竟开启了一个新的业态。但是在长期看来，我不看好Papi酱的有三个理由。

1、如何持续满足用户不断提高的期望值

反正今天都要得罪人了，那就举罗辑思维的例子吧。几年前老爸来北京帮我看装修房子的事情，在无聊之余我推荐他看罗辑思维，他觉得非常有意思，拓宽了自己思路和视野。后来有一年回家，他问我为什么罗辑思维现在讲的内容没有以前那么好了？我说那是因为你进步了，不是别人退步了。也就是罗辑思维的成长速度，后面产出的内容，已经跟不上部分用户的期望值了。我相信现在也有很多之前每天听罗辑思维60s语音的人，每期罗辑思维视频必看的人，已经一周、一月甚至一年、几年没有听/看了。

是否能持续性产出好的内容，而且满足甚至超出用户的期望值，这是一个巨大的挑战。我并不是说这件事情就罗辑思维很难做好，而是几乎所有人都很难做好。

其实在我看来，罗辑思维已经做得非常好了，微信上拥有600多万用户，100多万的客户，是其他人学习的典范。但是Papi酱是否能做好这件事情，在长远看来就很难说了。而且Papi酱目前说的还是段子，请问大家订阅号里的某些段子、笑话等取乐的号，想当初也是天天看的，现在呢？越是大众的内容，用户越容易获取，也越容易疲劳，最怕用户新鲜感过去，没了持续刺激的后果很可怕。

2、用户不够垂直精准

我们做产品，需要对产品的核心用户做出非常明确的画像，然后根据人群共有的某些特征，做出商业化的行为。

还是罗辑思维的例子，老罗说自己的是贩卖知识的，对他感兴趣的核心人群也是想获取知识的人，所以他可以卖书，可以卖演讲门票，或者是其他和知识相关的实物或虚拟品。Papi酱可以卖什么呢？卖笑话书、段子书？应该没多少人要买吧。

Papi酱的内容谁都可以看，所以获取用户很容易，但这是把双刃剑，因为容易就侧面说明价值低。如果不做深度的分析，我很难一下子给Papi酱的核心用户做出画像，或者就是简单的一个字：人，三个字：正常人，九个字：视觉听觉没问题的人，N个字：会用电脑和手机上网的人，再细分就很难了。

当你很难描述产品的核心用户画像，未来的商业化的价值就会很低，Papi酱目前就走入了这样的怪圈。

3、还谈不上IP

IP近来也比较火，肯定有人说Papi酱也是个好的IP啊。我只能说Papi酱目前只能算是一个很小很小的IP，无论是粉丝规模还是内容深度，都很难形成一个大的IP。

我们所知的与搞笑相关的网络IP有万万系列、大鹏的屌丝男士系列，但是这些都不是一个人做出来的，都是集整个团队的力量、公司的资源和资本的推动，有时代的机遇，还有大规模化用户的认可，不是单方面的努力，而是立体化的去打造，才有后面的票房大卖的电影。

以目前Papi酱的情况是否能做到呢？我不得而知，未来更是一个很大的未知数。

最后

我作为一个从未和Papi酱见过面的人，从外界所获取有限资料的情况下，只从行业观察者的角度，有了基于以上3点的分析。

我相信老罗和真格投Papi酱一定有他们的理由，因为毕竟有些东西是我所没看到想到的，比如Papi酱还有很多牛X的能力没有展现出来。他们获取关于Papi酱的信息比我多，或许眼光也比我长远，看事情的维度也比我高，但愿如此。

虽然我也很希望Papi酱未来会很成功，但是该泼的冷水还是要泼。

本文作者：契约V5   微信公众号：sjydhlw