Most confusion in the history of United States presidential elections behind the technology-the Internet, data, social networking-IT information
Big data is seeping into the Hillary voters and Trump in the battle. Over the next 8 years and even longer in the Millennium generation, social networking and video for the Internet, the representatives of large data and program advertising technology will play an increasingly important role in the election, there will not be any exceptions in the business world.
? Hillary Clinton supporters in Wisconsin and the self timer
Even imagination, perhaps the most rich people would not imagine the United States presidential election situation now appears.
Prior carry Bush family fame and to of Jeb Bush eventually had to dismal exit, Hillary Clinton although early in party primary in the lay huge of leading advantage, but Bernie Sanders (Bernie Sanders) rallying cry of left Socialist fantasy in young groups in the raised of support is let Democrats of competition added a few minutes waves, and had was outside General think is purely spoiler who of Republican candidates Trump now is seems to a Deputy days selected of people of posture.
This is an unprecedented change in United States history in the future presidential election, we not only see the left in which to flourish, we also see ethnic, class and other isolated and irreconcilable.
If, say, we can′t guarantee and will determine the future of this campaign is how to, then at least one thing is clear for sure is, to associate advertising technology, represented in this chaotic election campaign played a more important role. This article would like to talk about the technology behind this mess-fighting force.
Who moved my constituents
In the elections of 2012, Republicans into the ground, after which they reflects on this, finally, come to the conclusion that he did not make good use of the Internet. So, here. In 2013, the Republicans, including Jeb Bush began and Deep Root Analytics media analysis company, use Alteryx′s data fusion and advanced analysis techniques to analyze voter information, set-top-box data, financial data, such as targeted advertising.
In the gubernatorial elections of 2014, Deep Root Analytics participated, including New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Republican campaign, although only half joined McConnell′s team, but Deep Root Analytics helps the media buy (media buy) cable television stations increased from 18 to 34. In this election, Republicans swept the campaign around two years ago, won 31 seats in the Governor, while the rival Democratic Party only 17 seats.
Voter turnout continues to decline has become the candidates have had to face the problem, for them, the key problem is to attract those who support their policy goals of the programme of the voters went to the polling station, otherwise it is empty. If further back, then, what is more important is, how to publicize those target voters.
This is program advertising WINS.
Trump′s target voter is this: lawful ability of skilled immigration, income and falling living standards for middle-and lower-level people, high on tax policy and interventionist foreign policy dissatisfaction, to spread religious and ethnic issues of political correctness has tired of it.
Target immigrants Sanders is this: they were not entering the community of young people, resentment of the middle class and her class holds simple hatred emotions, they desire to raise when you raise taxes on big business and pay, trying to achieve universal free health care and education.
So, in programmed advertising of role Xia, a do car repair workers of Mexico immigration in Internet Shi see of is advertising should is Trump of "let United States again powerful" (Make America Great Again), and appeared in a carry with heavy University loan pressure of students front of advertising is should is Sanders of "political reform ready stay sent" (a, Political Revolution Is Coming).
Even within the same page, using the DSP Platform, each with different educational background, income, religious beliefs and other Internet users to see the campaign ads are not the same, they are most likely to let themselves go to the polls, allow yourself to vote for that candidate′s ad.
Let us recall the big data, Internet program supported by advertising before the Declaration of war, accurate release candidate′s ad just fewer ads in the base area, more ads in swing districts, according to its own policy of advertising slogan aimed at different target voters. Even in polls and statistics system is mature and developed of the United States, so in order for 100,000 of base unit publicity and there are a lot of unforeseen and uncontrollable factors. Program advertising appearances and mature means that candidates can get rid of these constraints and restrictions, in support of more accurate data for more accurate real-time information delivery.
Voters in any one position, in theory, can not escape program advertising network, for each candidate, and the only problem is that the ads they are enough to impress the person and encourage them to vote for themselves.
Election technology
? The House of cards in the voter information obtained by illegal means
In the fourth season of House of cards in the Presidents intentionally seek data scientist Ed Underwood (Aidan MacAllan) got the chance to access to national security databases, with such facilities to promote gun Bill Clare has hundreds of thousands of her people, including telephone, personal information, such as email, to these target voters through gun ads, In less than 24 hours, more than 84,000 calls expressing support for Claire, the Bill finally passed in Congress.
This is not just the art of fiction, in the real elections, how to make better use of data technology and the Internet to achieve the objective of voters has become now you fought for the primaries of candidates ′ campaign manager had to a priority issue.
Advances in technology and the development of the Internet made it possible for candidates would be better use of advertising budget.
? From 2008 to 2020 United States political trends in digital ad spending growth
Study says 2016 presidential campaign unprecedented in political ad spending will reach $ 11.4 billion. About $ 1 billion will be invested in digital advertising, if you do a compare, in 2008, that number just for us $ 23 million, 8 years, digital advertising scale up nearly 5,000 times!
In the 2008 campaign, the Obama team every week in that each candidate State will call the call center of 5000 to 10,000 short calls, about 1000 times more calls to through this constantly modify their algorithms to voters in the form model and the election prediction: Obama team predicted rate 57.68% of votes in Hamilton County, Ohio, effective results for the final 57.16%.
▲ 2012 campaign, Obama′s investment in online advertising is nearly twice times Romney
In the 2012 re-election campaign, the Obama team in digital advertising and data collection has an astonishing performance, and ultimately achieved amazing results. Election of each candidate′s biggest inspiration may be able to use the MIT Technology review, conclude with one sentence:
Voters can actually be seen as a collection of individual citizens, and are available on the personal dimension of every citizen are measured and estimated.
Last year, Facebook introduced Facebook for Politics, in fact, social networks are increasingly becoming candidate ads platform. More importantly, no better than Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, more convenient and user profile more accurate social network, this vast amount of data makes program advertising really comes in.
▲ The 2012 presidential election with voters at the Department′s attitude on the issue of distribution of positions
Micro-data at the level of individual voters and voters across the country, bulk complementary macro-analysis of regional distribution, which can avoid the traditional region, race, level of education, such as dividing the voters ′ simple and crude, while the latter makes the former distribution based on more accurate and more effective.
All of this eventually on stark display advertisements for the program, user information will be associated with Ad Exchange and voters, which formed after analyzing data of the Ad Exchange and link up with DSP, and eventually, through the DSP, the candidate was finally able to publish your own ads to their target voters.
Program advertising Targeted Victory co-founder Zac Moffatt commented:
Programming means you can use technology to make real-time decisions.
Politics and business
In the 2012 presidential election, Obama in the millennial generation (Millennial born between 1978-2000) won 36% votes, the groups during the entire voting population accounts for about 19%.
Millennial generation′s population currently has more than 75 million, more than the baby boomers, became United States largest contemporary generation. The 2016 presidential election, the Millennium generation will occupy nearly one-third of the total number of actual voters.
Survey on the millennial generation:
? 80% think the video before deciding to buy useful;
? 76% will focus on a brand on YouTube, on Facebook, the proportion is as high as 84%;
? 70% online shopping to watch the company video;
? 48% watching video on a mobile device;
Steeped in the Internet these changes of the millennial generation are deeply affected and changed the election rules of the game.
? Frank′s political career in the fifth season of House of cards in a new opponent: weier·kangwei
In the House of cards in the latest quarter, Conway, Republican presidential candidate (Will Conway) is a keen video site to share home videos of politicians, while his fictional search engine secrets through the play Pollyhop to collect the user′s behavior and data to push propaganda to target voters and nearly so in trouble.
In fact, these plots are the real United States election is happening. Social networks, video sites and other popular Internet platform for young people love all politicians use program advertising is becoming propaganda tools than display ads, video ads not only caters more in line with the Millennium generation groups, no doubt more can help them better promote itself and attract voters.
Now in full swing party primary battle, Trump best health is not only a video Web site using this tool the most perfect candidates, in fact, he himself was a reality show of the disciples (The Apprentice), executive producer and host. On YouTube, with Trump as the search term, with the result that more than 4.7 million, and with Hillary as the keyword, only about 2.1 million, including Sanders, Cruze (Ted Cruz), the search results are only erbaiduowantiao.
Trump is a novice politician, and he is an entertainer, but in the end, he is a worth billions of businessmen. In this time, triple identity fusion have done a superb job on him.
Election itself is a cruel and gorgeous game, but it is also a banner of high business. Program advertising in the future in these behind, video platform will play an increasingly important role, it is actually its own trends.
In 2015, the United States program advertising spending to $ 2.5 billion, occupying the entire share of the television advertising 4%, estimated that by 2019, programmed to ad size will increase to 10 billion dollars, in the TV advertising market share rose to 17%.
A speak out the truth is that neither Clinton nor the election almost negligible Trump, over the next 8 years and even longer in the Millennium generation, social networking and video for the Internet, the representatives of large data and program advertising technology will play an increasingly important role in the election, there will not be any exceptions in the business world.
Or, as someone put it:
Like piece orders can only move forward. They may lose, but they can also win the game.
这场史上最混乱美国总统大选幕后的技术战 - 互联网,大数据,社交网络 - IT资讯
大数据正在渗透到希拉里和特朗普选民争夺大战中。在未来8年乃至更长的时间里，千禧年一代、以社交和视频为代表的互联网、大数据和程序化广告技术不仅在选战中会发挥日益重要的作用，在商业世界里也不会有任何例外。
▲希拉里赴威斯康星州竞选与支持者自拍
即使想象力最丰富的人或许也不会想象到美国总统选举会出现如今的局面。
事先挟布什家族名利而来的杰布·布什最终不得不惨淡退出，希拉里·克林顿虽然早就在党内初选中奠定巨大的领先优势，但是伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）振臂一呼的左翼社会主义空想在年轻人群体中引发的支持却让民主党的竞争平添几分波澜，而当初被外界普遍认为是纯粹搅局者的共和党候选人特朗普如今却俨然一副天选之人的架势。
这是一次将前所未有地改变美国未来历史进程的总统大选，我们不仅看到左右两派在其中争奇斗艳，亦看到族群、阶层等的割裂和不可调和。
如果说，我们现在还不能保证和确定这场大选未来的走向究竟会如何的话，那么至少有一点可以明确肯定的是，以程序化广告为代表的技术手段在这次分外混乱的选战中扮演了前所未有的重要角色。本文就想讲讲这场混乱背后的技术暗战力量。
谁动了我的选民
2012年的大选中，共和党一败涂地，此后，他们就对此进行了反思，最后，得出的结论是自己并没有很好地利用到互联网。于是，到了。2013年，包括杰布·布什在内的共和党人就开始和Deep Root Analytics等媒体分析公司合作，利用Alteryx公司的数据融合和高阶分析等技术来整理分析投票者的信息、机顶盒数据、财务数据等进行针对性的广告投放。
2014年的州长选举中，Deep Root Analytics参与了包括新泽西州长、威斯康星州长及肯塔基参议员米奇·麦康诺（Mitch McConnell）等共和党人的竞选，尽管只是在半程才加入了麦康诺的团队，但是Deep Root Analytics帮助他的媒体购买（media buy）从18家有线电视台增加到了34家。在此次竞选中，共和党人一扫两年前的选战颓势，获得了31个州长席位，而对手民主党则仅仅只有17席。
投票率持续下滑已经成为各个候选人都不得不面对的难题，对他们而言，最关键的问题首先是吸引那些支持自己纲领政策的目标选民到投票站去，否则一切便是空谈。如果再往前回溯的话，那么更重要的是，如何让自己的宣传接触到那些目标选民。
这恰恰就是程序化广告的胜场。
特朗普的目标选民是这样的：合法的有能力有技术的移民、收入和生活水平不断下降的中低层民众、对高税负政策和干涉主义外交政策不满、对泛滥的宗教种族问题上的政治正确已经感到厌烦。
桑德斯的目标移民则是这样的：他们都是些还未进入社会的年轻人，对中产阶级和妇人阶层抱着质朴的反感仇恨情感、他们渴望提高提高大企业的税收和时薪，试图实现全民的免费医疗和教育。
那么，在程序化广告的作用下，一个做汽车修理工的墨西哥移民在上网时看到的是广告应该是特朗普的“让美国再强大”（Make America Great Again），而出现在一个背负着沉重大学贷款压力的大学生眼前的广告则应该是桑德斯的“政治改革蓄势待发”（A Political Revolution Is Coming）。
即使在同一个页面，借助DSP平台，每个有着各自不同教育背景、收入、宗教信仰等的网民看到的竞选广告都是不一样的，他们看到的都只是最有可能让自己去投票站、让自己去投那一票的候选人的广告。
让我们回想一下有着大数据、互联网支持的程序化广告之前的宣战，候选人的广告精准投放仅仅局限在基本盘的地区投放较少的广告，在摇摆地区投放更多的广告，根据自己的政策口号针对不同的目标选民投放广告。即使在民调和统计体系已经成熟发达的美国，这样的以十万量级为基本单位的宣传也存在着大量的意外和不可控因素。而程序化广告的出现和成熟则意味着候选人可以摆脱上述的束缚和限制，在更精确的数据支持下进行更加精准的实时的宣传投放。
任何一个存在自己立场的选民，在理论上都无法逃脱程序化广告的大网，对各个候选人而言，唯一的问题就在于，他们投放的广告是否足够打动这些人并促使他们为自己投票。
选战即技术战
▲《纸牌屋》里通过非法手段获得的选民信息
在《纸牌屋》第四季中，安德伍德总统耍弄权谋使得数据科学家爱德（Aidan MacAllan）获得了接入国家安全部门数据库的机会，借助这样的便利，致力推动禁枪法案的克莱尔掌握了数十万赞同她的民众的包括电话、个人邮箱等在内的信息，通过向这些目标选民传递禁枪广告，在不到24小时里就有超过8.4万通电话表达了对克莱尔的支持，这一法案最终也在国会顺利通过。
这不止是艺术的虚构，在现实的大选中，如何更好地利用数据技术手段和互联网来争取目标选民已经成为如今各位为党内初选而争得不可开交的各位候选人的竞选经理不得不放在优先位置的议题。
技术的进步和互联网的发展使得候选人有可能将广告预算更好地利用起来。
▲2008年到2020年的美国政治数字广告支出增长趋势
有研究称，2016年总统竞选活动的政治广告花费将达到史无前例的114亿美元。其中约10亿美元将投放在数字广告方面，如果做一番纵向比较的话，在2008年，这一数字仅仅为不到2300万美元，8年之间，数字广告的规模上涨了近5000倍！
2008年选战中，奥巴马团队的呼叫中心每星期在每个竞选州都会拨打5000到10000个短电话、约1000个时间较长的电话来，通过这种形式来不断修改自己对选民的算法模型和选情预测——奥巴马团队预测在俄亥俄州汉密尔顿郡的得票率为57.68%，最终实际结果为57.16%。
▲2012年的选战中，奥巴马线上广告的投入是罗姆尼的近2倍
在2012年的连任选战中，奥巴马团队在数字广告和数据的收集利用上有着惊人的表现，最终也取得了惊人的效果。而这次选战对各个候选人最大的启发或许可以用《麻省理工科技评论》的一句话作为总结：
选民实际上可以被视作个体公民的集合体，而每个公民都可以在个人的维度上被测量和估量。
去年，Facebook推出了Facebook for Politics，实际上，社交网络正越来越多地成为成为候选人投放广告的平台。更重要的是，没有比Facebook、Twitter以及Instagram等更方便、用户测写更精确的社交网络，这些海量的大数据实际上使得程序化广告真正有了用武之地。
▲2012年总统竞选中的选民在部门问题上的态度立场分布情况
个体选民微观层面上的数据恰好可以和选民在全国范围、本体区域内分布的宏观分析进行互补，前者可以避免传统单纯以区域、种族、教育程度等划分选民的简单粗暴，而后者则又能使得前者在总体分布基础上更加精准更加有效。
这一切最终都鲜明地体现到程序化广告上，用户的信息将Ad Exchange和选民联系在一起，而这些信息整理分析之后形成的大数据则将Ad Exchange和DSP连接起来，最终，通过DSP，候选人终于能将自己的广告发布给自己的目标选民。
程序化广告公司Targeted Victory联合创始人Zac Moffatt对此评价道：
程序化意味着你可以利用技术实时地做出决定。
政治与生意
在2012年的总统选举中，奥巴马在千禧年一代（Millennial，出生于1978到2000年之间）中获得了36%的选票，该群体在整个投票人口占据了大约19%。
千禧年一代的人口总数目前已经超过7500万，超过婴儿潮一代，成为美国当代数量最大的一个世代。到2016年总统大选时，千禧年一代将占据实际选民总数的近三分之一。
调查显示，在千禧年一代中：
• 80%认为视频在决定购买前有用；
•76%会在YouTube上关注某个品牌，在Facebook上，这一比例高达84%；
•70%会在线上购物时观看公司宣传视频；
•48%在移动设备上只看视频；
浸淫于互联网的千禧年一代的这些变化正深刻地影响及改变着选战的游戏规则。
▲《纸牌屋》第五季中弗兰克政治生涯中的新对手：威尔·康威
在最新一季《纸牌屋》中，共和党总统候选人康威（Will Conway）是一个热衷于在视频网站上分享自己家庭视频的政客，与此同时，他也秘密通过剧中虚构的搜索引擎Pollyhop来收集用户的使用习惯和数据以向目标选民推送宣传并险些因此惹祸上身。
事实上，这些情节都是正在现实的美国大选中切实发生着的。社交网络、视频网站等倍受年轻人钟爱的互联网平台正成为各个政客利用程序化广告进行宣传的利器，相比展示广告，视频广告不仅更加符合千禧年一代群体的口味，无疑也更加能帮助这些候选人更好地宣传自己和吸引选民。
在目前进行得如火如荼的党内初选大战中，风头最健的特朗普不仅是将视频网站这一工具利用得最炉火纯青的候选人，实际上，他本人就是真人秀节目《门徒》（The Apprentice）的执行制片人和主持人。在YouTube上，以trump为搜索关键词的话，结果有超过470万条，而以hillary为关键词的话，结果只有210万条左右，包括桑德斯、科鲁兹（Ted Cruz）在内的搜索结果都只有二百多万条。
特朗普既是一名初出茅庐的政客，同时，他是一个娱乐家，但归根到底，他还是一个身价数十亿的商人。这次的选举里，三重身份在他身上融合得出神入化。
选举本身既是一场残酷华丽的游戏，同时又是一门高举高打的生意。程序化广告未来在这些社交、视频平台上将扮演越来越重要角色的背后，其实也是它本身的发展趋势。
2015年时，美国程序化广告的支出为25亿美元，占据整个电视广告份额的4%，预计到2019年，程序化广告的规模将增加到100亿美元，在电视广告市场中的比重上升到17%。
一个不言而明的真相是，无论是希拉里还是当选可能性几乎微乎其微的特朗普，在未来8年乃至更长的时间里，千禧年一代、以社交和视频为代表的互联网、大数据和程序化广告技术不仅在选战中会发挥日益重要的作用，在商业世界里也不会有任何例外。
或许，就像有人说的那样的：
就如棋子落盘只能向前。它们可能会输，但是也可能赢得整个游戏。