Expert: middle-income "demographic pit" trap to drag down China's economic growth | population growth _ news

"Demographic pit" traps drag on economic growth in China

Wang Ling

According to the data released by the national statistical office, in 2015, China's economic growth rate to 6.9%, below 7% for the first time in 6 years. Economists are exploring, what are the reasons behind the Chinese economy continues downward.

Zhou tianyong, Deputy Director of the Institute for the international strategy of the Central Party school study found that rapid rates of population growth decline, demographic too fast population, main economic size of population (22-44) shrinking and ageing, resulting in China with other countries in the middle-income trap different, unique, middle-income "demographic pit" trap and make waves downward fluctuations in the Chinese economy. Demographic changes affecting labour supply, consumption, investment and so on, plus the obstruction of migration, has led to China's sustained economic growth downward.

Zhou tianyong came to the conclusion after analysis over the population and economic data: 20 years ago, population growth and after 20 years of economic growth are highly correlated. He predicted that China may face more downward pressure on economic growth.

　　Decline in population growth rates are underlying causes of

First business news: as economists, in your opinion, how population affects economic growth?

Zhou tianyong: the underlying causes of the current economic downturn in China is that rapid rates of population growth decline and the population structure have fewer children and aging, while a considerable number of migrant workers no way to stay in the city after the old, can choose to return home, or volume of 80 and after the floating in the city, resulting in a low level of urbanization of rural population of real people. On the impact of these factors in the causes of the current economic downturn accounts for a large proportion.

From three aspects of the impact of population growth. First is the labor supply. The working-age population declines, rising labor costs, which had a direct impact on exports. Meanwhile, the elderly more, increased pension costs in the national economy as a whole. Whether pensions are taxed or five insurance payments paid by the Government, will enter the cost of the product, it will lose its international strengths.

Second, from the perspective of consumption, 22-44 of the population is the main economic base of the population, the age population decline directly affects consumption. Education first shrink, and then the House, down the rigid demands of the car to turn, and cause excess cement, steel, coal, metallurgy, and comprehensive.

Third, from the investment point of view, if the lack of industrial demand, export, consumption, excess products where to vote? Investments are also declining, so that economic growth will decline, of course.

Academic and policy community to focus more on population and ageing. However, it is to be noted that, 22-44-age population, is labour supply, entrepreneurship, innovation, investment, and consumption of main groups, which slowed or even negative growth, shrinkage, will inevitably lead to slower economic growth.

　Middle-income "demographic pit" trap

Daily: from the perspective of China's population situation, as a result of compulsory intervention, is it means that when you cross the middle stage face even greater difficulties?

Zhou tianyong: we calculated, implementation guidance, China family planning, population reduction is more than 100 million. As a result of a mandatory family planning, population has decreased more than more than 200 million. This part of the problem is to reduce the population, more than 100 million are in their 20-40, is the main economic base of the population, consumption, innovation, venture capital, employment, the main population. Another 100 million reduction in population is 0~20sui, which is the growth of the population, to continue in the future to enter the working age, that is most in need of economic growth in the future continue to come into the economic trends of the main part of population is shrinking year by year.

In other words, in national enforcement and market forces under the dual role, due to population growth and ageing time is longer, deeper, formation of China with other countries in the middle-income trap different, unique to middle-income "demographic pit" trap. China has formed stage of middle-income population pit traps. Due to the existence of the population, China's population downward contraction of the Bar graph is, more and more of the elderly, young people are less and less.

Daily: main economic shrinking population will inevitably lead to economic downturn, do you have any statistics to support this conclusion?

Zhou tianyong: from 1974 to 1994, the population growth rate, found that between 1994 and 2014 economic growth rates are highly correlated. We came to the conclusion of a regular, population growth decisions 20 years ago after 20 years of economic growth. In the population due to war, famine, pestilence, volatile situations such as government intervention, population growth was up 20 years ago to promote economic growth up after 20 years; otherwise promote the economic downturn. This is a very important discovery.

This is because in 20 years after entering the working-age population, which directly increase or decrease in the number of labour supply; and then they start to get married and have children, buy a house or rent, expanding consumption, and entrepreneurship and innovation. The number of this group of the population has a direct and significant impact on economic development.

　"Thirteen-Five" during an economic downturn increased pressure

Daily: in accordance with decision 20 years after the conclusion of economic growth rates of population growth, how do you expect next growth trends?

Zhou tianyong: according to our research, from 1994 until 2014, the population growth rate, you can calculate economic growth downward trend after 2015, it would seem that has too much downward pressure on economic growth.

This figure, "the Thirteen-Five" during the economic growth rate may be reduced from 6.5% to 3.5%, "Fourteen-Five" and after the economic downward pressure even greater. A lot of people still don't feel the danger.

As the population of main economic contraction, as well as aging, not only Labor's decline with rising labor costs, due to the increase in pension costs, pension costs are rising, to the international competitiveness of the Chinese economy tremendous constraints and pressures. China's economy is now caught in a dilemma, expansionary fiscal policies, lower interest rates, construction of the plant, will result in more of the surplus. Said policies to stimulate demand for the relative shrinkage of shrinking aggregate demand and very difficult to play. Like Japan Economist for the economic policy review, you can print money, but you can't spend money man.

China stressed that the supply side reforms, to be useful, such as cutting taxes, reduce corporate financing costs, reform education, health care, tourism, institutional, trade competitiveness in the export of services to strengthen and improve the proportion of consumption in GDP, retaining private capital investments in the Mainland, and so on, may improve the growth of the national economy. Just capacity, the growth rate falls, is negative; just emphasizes that the efficiency, increase output, supply more, there is no demand, then more excess.

Responsible editor: Mao Minmin SN184

Article keywords:
Population growth rate

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专家:中等收入“人口坑”陷阱拖累中国经济增长|人口增长率_新闻资讯

　　“人口坑”陷阱 拖累中国 经济增长

　　王羚

　　根据国家统计局公布的数据，2015年，中国经济增长率为6.9%，6年来首次跌破7%。经济学界在探究，中国经济持续下行背后的原因到底是什么。

　　中央党校国际战略研究院副院长周天勇在深入研究后发现，人口增长率过快下滑、人口结构过快少子化、经济主力人口规模（22到44岁）萎缩和老龄化，由此形成了中国与其他国家中等收入陷阱不同的、特有的中等收入“人口坑”陷阱，并使中国经济产生排浪式下行波动。人口变化影响了劳动力供应、消费、投资等多方面，再加上人口迁移中的梗阻，共同导致了中国经济增长的持续下行。

　　周天勇在分析历年人口与经济数据后得出一个结论：20年前的人口增长与20年后的经济增长呈现高度相关。他由此预测，未来中国经济增长可能面临更加严峻的下行压力。

　　人口增长率下滑是深层原因

　　第一财经日报：作为经济学者，你认为，人口是如何影响经济增长的？

　　周天勇：当前中国经济下行的深层原因在于：人口增长率过快下滑及人口结构过快少子化和老龄化；同时，相当多的外出务工人员年老后没有办法留在城市，只能选择返乡，或者大量的80和90后，漂泊在城市中，由此造成了农村人口真正市民化的城市化水平很低。这些因素在影响当前经济下行的原因中占有很大比重。

　　人口从三个方面影响经济增长。首先就是劳动力供应。劳动年龄人口减少，劳动力价格上升，这就直接影响出口。同时，老年人越多，整个国民经济中养老的成本就提高。不管养老支出是通过政府收税还是五险一金缴纳，都要进入产品成本中，就会丧失国际优势。

　　其次，从消费看，22到44岁的人口是经济主力人口，这个年龄段的人口减少的话直接影响消费。先是教育萎缩，然后是房子、车子的刚性需求掉头往下，然后导致水泥、钢材、煤炭、冶金等全面过剩。

　　其三，从投资上看，如果产业需求不足、出口不足、消费不足，产品过剩了往哪里投？投资也在萎缩，这样，经济增长当然就下降。

　　学界和政策界更多地关注了少子化和老龄化问题。但是，特别需要指出的是，22到44岁年龄人口，是劳动力供给、创业、创新、投资和消费的主力群体，这部分人口增长速度放慢，甚至负增长，规模萎缩，必然会导致经济增长放缓。

　　中等收入“人口坑”陷阱

　　日报：从中国的人口生产情况看，由于采取了强制性干预，那么是不是意味着在跨越中等收入阶段时面临更大的困难？

　　周天勇：我们计算了一下，中国如果实行指导型计划生育的话，减少的人口是一亿多。由于实行了强制性的计划生育，人口减少了2亿多。问题是减少的这部分人口，一亿多是20到40多岁，是经济主力人口，是消费、创新、创业、就业、投资的主力人口。另外一亿多减少的人口是0~20岁，这是成长性人口，将来要不断地进入劳动年龄的，即将来经济增长最需要的不断进入经济主力人口部分数量也是逐年萎缩的趋势。

　　也就是说，在国家的强制和市场的力量双重作用下，由于人口增速下降过快和老龄化时间较长、幅度较深，形成中国与其他国家中等收入陷阱不同的、特有的中等收入“人口坑”陷阱。中国已经形成中等收入阶段的人口坑陷阱。由于这个人口坑的存在，中国人口柱图是向下收缩的，老年人越来越多，青年人越来越少。

　　日报：经济主力人口的萎缩必然导致经济的下行，这个结论你有数据支持吗？

　　周天勇：分析1974年到1994年的人口增长率，发现跟1994年到2014年的经济增长率高度相关。我们得出一个规律性的结论，20年前的人口增长率决定20年后的经济增长率。在人口因战争、饥荒、瘟疫、政府干预等波动剧烈的情况下，20年前人口增长是上行的，就推动20年后经济增长上行；反之就推动经济下行。这是个非常重大的发现。

　　这是因为人口在20年后进入劳动年龄，其数量的多少直接增加或减少劳动力供给；然后他们开始结婚生子、买房或者租房，扩大消费；还进行创业和创新等。这批人口的数量对于经济发展有着直接、重大的影响。

　　“十三五”期间经济下行压力加大

　　日报：按照人口增长率决定20年后经济增长率的结论，你预计下一步经济增长的趋势是怎样的？

　　周天勇：根据我们的研究，从1994年到2014年的人口增长率，就可以推算出2015年之后的经济增长下行趋势，这样看来经济增长下行的压力太大了。

　　以此推算，“十三五”期间经济增长率可能会从6.5%降到3.5%，“十四五”及之后经济下行压力更大。很多人还没有感受到这个危险。

　　由于经济主力人口的萎缩，以及老龄化，不仅劳动力的减少使劳动成本上升，也因养老费用的增加，使产品的养老成本也上升，给中国经济的国际竞争力带来巨大的束缚和压力。中国经济现在陷入两难之中，扩张性的财政政策，降低利率，建设工厂，会导致更加过剩。可以说刺激需求侧的政策因人口相对萎缩的总需求收缩问题而使效果很难发挥。就像日本经济学者对安倍经济政策的评论，你可以印出钞票，但你印不出花钞票的人。

　　现在中国强调供给侧改革，会有用处，比如减少税费，降低企业融资成本，改革教育、医疗、旅游等体制，使服务贸易在出口中的竞争力加强，提高居民消费在GDP中的比率，留住民间资金在国内投资等，会改善国民经济的增长。仅仅去产能，发展速度就下降，就是负增长；仅仅强调提高效率，增加产出，供给更多，没有需求的话就更加过剩。

责任编辑：茅敏敏 SN184

文章关键词：
人口增长率

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