Analysis of overseas blindfold misread China's economy _ news

At the threshold of transformation and upgrading of China's economic is complex. If such complex economic phenomena prejudices fit into the established framework, can cause a lot of misunderstanding on the Chinese economy. After Chinese economic data published in the first quarter, some overseas media regularly raises many questions on China's economy. To restore a true and complete picture of the Chinese economy, there is a need to clarify these habitual bias.

Question one: data reliability

Chinese economy in the first quarter in "good start", but the United Kingdom Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in the statistics published on the same day to question the authenticity of data, considered part of the local government and enterprises may have provided false data to enhance their performance and results.

Whether China data reliable? United States Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City recently released research report confirms that China's official gross domestic product (GDP) is a good measure of China's overall economic growth. Construction of China's key industry indicator in the report model, the recalculated 2008-2014 years of GDP growth in China, results are consistent with China's official statistics up to 99%.

Bernstein Research said Michael Park, an economist in Hong Kong that China will let the country's tens of thousands of and even hundreds of thousands of accounting and statistic personnel in ten years and even longer in unison to distort the data, the idea sounded incredible.

Some Western media bias towards China statistical credibility is quite deep, this bias ignores the facts: first, China continue to improve statistical standards into line with international norms, second, China changed the way officials check to eliminate local "data injection" impulse.

In 2002, China joined the International Monetary Fund (IMF) General data dissemination standard (GDDS). On October 8 last year, China has also announced the adoption of more higher-order of the IMF special data dissemination standard (SDDS).

SDDS data published coverage, publication frequency, timeliness, data quality, availability to the public, and so has a very high demands. IMF first Deputy Managing Director, Lipton said, "using SDDS in China shows that China's strong will to use international standards to improve data transparency. ”

In addition, in China under the background of economic transformation and upgrading, the Central Government has changed its local leadership assessment "GDP on" approach. Express request of the Central Organization Department of the documents issued by the end of 2013, not only evaluation of GDP and growth rate as an achievement of key indicators.

Question two: growth of power conversion

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that China's first-quarter economic growth is built on the high credit and borrowing on the basis of, "this will make the already long-standing more serious structural imbalances in the economy." Article also criticized IG markets analyst quoted: "the Chinese Government is back (to investment-led growth) the development path. ”

This criticism is mainly based on credit data for the first quarter. Statistics show that social financing stock rose 13.4% in the late March, outstanding loans rose 14.5%, fast credit growth. But Ma, China's Central Bank Chief Economist, said there are periodic, cyclical reasons, including steady growth measures leading to infrastructure projects started in the early focus, real estate recovery, oil prices fell, lead to fill inventories.

Take all these factors into consideration, will find that rapid credit growth in the first quarter was not "normal". UBS wrote in his latest report: "we expect that future credit expansion will stabilize. ”

In addition, some foreign media on a quarter credit data misinterpretation is that: the structure of growth of credit, no credit. Credit growth in the first quarter is not a "flood irrigation" and "precision", "redirect" features, incremental credit flow from inefficient industries and efficient industry.

Central Bank data shows that industries with surplus production capacity medium-and long-term loans in the first quarter fell 0.2%, iron and steel and building materials up to 7.5% and 10.3% respectively, while high-tech manufacturing medium-to long-term loans rose 8.9% in the field.

And, growing much faster than the Eastern Midwest loan, small business loan growth than large and medium enterprises, farmers ' loan have achieved faster growth. Also has many economists took note of this change. Commonwealth Securities Economist Craig James in Sydney: "results exceeded market expectations, it shows that China's economic rebalancing is proceeding as planned. ”

Question three: the transformation continues

Fears of poor economic data does not stimulate, worrying about the reform a good economic data, which has become part of the mindset of the Western media. United States a few days ago the Wall Street Journal reported criticism that the, see 2016 there are too many structural reforms.

"There are talking about reform and the economies in transition, while reform and restructuring in China than in the rest of the world countries or regions more certainty," Hans-Paul bürkner, President of the Boston Consulting Group, a global reform in China cast a vote of confidence.

Whether China's economic transformation stagnation, most convincing data. China's National Bureau of Ning Ji喆 noted that the continued optimization of the economic structure in China in the first quarter, continues to upgrade the industrial structure.

First, the services sector grew faster than the industry. First quarter, value added of the tertiary industry grew 7.6%, 1.8% faster than secondary industry. Secondly, to high-end. A quarterly strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing value added growth, respectively, and 10% and 7.5%, growth is significantly faster than traditional manufacturing. Again, from the perspective of demand, consumption in the first quarter economic growth rate continues to exceed 60%.

So far this year, from pilot projects to deployment in full swing camp increased to further encourage "public undertaking, the much anticipated innovation" is practical new measures the Chinese Government never stops on the path of reform. Some foreign media on the reform questions, ignore the fact that transformation of China's economic reform is advancing, underestimated the courage and determination of the Chinese Government continues to press ahead with reforms.

Question four: debt risk control

Since the first quarter, many Western institutions and media hypes China debt risks. For example, China's sovereign rating Outlook downgraded to negative by ratings agency Moody's and p are worrying government debt. Bloomberg also reported that, although the Chinese economy achieve steady growth in the first quarter, but it also raises the sustainability of debt-fueled growth problems.

Asian Development Bank zhongweiwuyan recently about China's debt problem, said if GDP can grow at a rate of about 6.5%, then the debt is manageable in China.

This year, the Chinese Government will make the deficits per cent of GDP rose from 2.3% to 3%, incremental increase of debt. But from the level of the stock of debt, China is still far lower than in other countries. In 2015, Chinese local government debt balance plus the Central balance as a percentage of GDP was about 39.4%, and United States public debt as a percentage of GDP reached 104.17%, and Japan up to 229.2%, United Kingdom 88.7%.

In terms of corporate debt, IMF report warned that some industry firms and higher risk and may give some pressure on the banking system. But the report also pointed out that given in 2015, China's commercial banks have about $ 400 billion and about $ 356 billion in pre-tax profit the Bank sets aside, strong economic growth and the Government's overall debt levels low, China has sufficient policy space to deal with potential losses in the banking system. Chinese IMF holds dongjinzhongxia stressed that the China financial risk control is the report release of positive information.

In recent years, the Chinese Government adopted a series of measures to control the risks, including debt risk early warning mechanism, constructing a replacement of debt supervisory system and local government debt.

It can be said that excessive concerns about China's public and corporate debt is unfounded, and ignore the fact that China's overall low debt levels, also ignored the Chinese Government's reform initiatives aimed at reducing risks.

Question five: the stability of RMB exchange rate

Experienced sharp fluctuations in the year, RMB exchange rate basically stable. In the view of some foreign media, the current stability is only temporary. United Kingdom, the Financial Times reported that Fed rate hike suspended, China has avoided selling Yuan is encounter, the RMB exchange rate stable for the time being just "good luck".

At present, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, strong international competition, the current account surplus remains high, low inflation, devaluation of the RMB does not exist ... This view was supported by United States intelligence kubidesen Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Institute of international economics agreed. He believes that, despite the slowdown of economic and export growth, China is facing pressure, but the Renminbi not depreciated basis.

From a look at the numbers, January devaluation of the Renminbi against the US dollar spot rate 1.3%, 0.48%, March continued to rise in February rose slightly to 1.23%. After joining the SDR, the RMB exchange rate "to a basket of currencies" remained basically stable. "The current foreign exchange market tends to return to normal, return to reason and return to fundamentals, and the trend is likely to continue," spokesman for the State administration of foreign exchange said Wang Chunying.

Responsible editor: Ms. fan Ying Wu

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辨析海外误读中国经济的障眼点_新闻资讯

　　处在转型升级关口的中国经济无疑是复杂的。如果将这种复杂的经济现象削足适履地塞入既定的偏见框架之中，会导致很多对中国经济的误读。在一季度中国经济数据陆续公布后，部分海外媒体习惯性地对中国经济提出诸多质疑。为还原真实、完整的中国经济图景，有必要对这些习惯性的成见加以澄清。

　　疑问一：经济数据可信度

　　一季度中国经济迎来“开门红”，但英国广播公司（BBC）在统计公布当天就对数据真实性提出质疑，认为部分地方政府和企业可能虚报数据从而提升其政绩和业绩。

　　中国数据可信否？美国堪萨斯城联邦储备银行不久前曾发布研究报告证实，中国官方国内生产总值（GDP）可以很好衡量中国整体经济增长状况。该报告采用中国关键行业指标构建模型，对中国2008-2014年的GDP增速重新进行计算，结果与中国官方统计数据吻合度达99%。

　　伯恩斯坦研究公司驻香港经济学家迈克尔·帕克表示，认为中国会让全国数万甚至数十万财会及统计人员，在十年乃至更长时间里步调一致地歪曲数据，这样的想法听起来让人难以置信。

　　部分西方媒体对中国统计可信度偏见颇深，这种偏见忽视了以下事实：其一，中国持续改善统计标准，已与国际通行准则接轨；其二，中国改变官员考核方式以消除地方政府“数据注水”冲动。

　　中国在2002年加入国际货币基金组织（IMF）数据公布通用标准（GDDS）。而去年10月8日，中国更宣布采纳更高阶的IMF数据公布特殊标准（SDDS）。

　　SDDS对数据覆盖范围、公布频率、公布及时性、数据质量、公众可得性等方面有着极高要求。IMF第一副总裁利普顿说：“中国采用SDDS表明中国使用国际标准提高数据透明度的强烈意愿。”

　　此外，在中国经济转型升级大背景下，中央政府已改变地方领导考核“唯GDP论”的做法。中央组织部2013年底印发的文件明确要求，不能仅仅把地区生产总值及增长率作为政绩评价的主要指标。

　　疑问二：增长动力转换度

　　《华尔街日报》日前报道称，中国一季度经济增速是建立在高信贷和举债基础上的，“这会使本来就长期存在的经济结构性失衡更加严重”。文章还援引IG市场公司分析师的话批评说：“中国政府正在回到（以投资拉动增长）的发展老路。”

　　这一批评的主要依据是一季度中国信贷数据。统计显示，3月末社会融资规模存量同比增长13.4%，人民币贷款余额同比增长14.5%，信贷增速的确较快。但中国央行首席经济学家马骏表示，这里面有阶段性、周期性原因，包括前期稳增长措施导致基建项目启动比较集中、房地产回暖、油价回落导致企业补库存。

　　将这些因素全部纳入考虑，会发现一季度信贷增长较快不是“常态化”现象。瑞银集团就在最新报告中写道：“我们预计未来信贷扩张度将企稳。”

　　此外，部分外媒对一季度信贷数据的误读还在于：只见信贷数量增长、未见信贷投放结构之变。一季度的信贷增长并不是“大水漫灌”，而具有“精准”、“定向”特点，信贷增量从低效行业流向高效行业。

　　央行数据显示，一季度产能过剩行业中长期贷款余额同比下降0.2%，其中钢铁和建材行业降幅分别高达7.5%和10.3%；而高新技术领域制造业中长期贷款增长8.9%。

　　并且，中西部地区贷款增速远高于东部，小微企业贷款增速超过大中型企业，农户贷款也实现了较快增长。也有不少经济学家注意到了这一变化。位于悉尼的联邦证券公司经济学家克雷格·詹姆斯认为：“结果超出市场预期，它表明中国经济再平衡正在按计划推进。”

　　疑问三：转型改革持续性

　　经济数据差就担心不刺激，经济数据好就担心不改革，这已经成为部分西方媒体的习惯性思维。美国《华尔街日报》在日前的报道中批评说，看不到2016年中国政府有太多结构性改革。

　　“谈论改革和转型的经济体不在少数，而中国的改革和转型比世界上其他国家或地区更具有确定性，”波士顿咨询集团全球主席汉斯-保罗·博克纳为中国改革投下了信任票。

　　中国经济转型到底有没有停滞，数据最有说服力。中国国家统计局局长宁吉喆指出，一季度中国经济结构持续优化，产业结构继续升级。

　　首先，服务业发展快于工业。一季度，第三产业增加值同比增长7.6%，比第二产业快1.8个百分点。其次，工业向中高端迈进。一季度战略性新兴产业、高技术产业和装备制造业增加值分别增长10%、9.2%和7.5%，增速明显快于传统制造业。再次，从需求结构看，一季度消费对经济增长的贡献率继续超过六成。

　　今年以来，从部署全面推开营改增试点到进一步推出激励“大众创业、万众创新”的务实新举措，中国政府在改革道路上从未停歇。部分外媒对改革的质疑，既忽视了中国经济转型改革正在推进的事实，也低估了中国政府继续推进改革的勇气和决心。

　　疑问四：债务风险可控度

　　一季度以来，不少西方机构和媒体多次炒作中国债务风险。例如，将中国主权评级展望下调至负面的评级机构穆迪和标普均担忧中国政府债务。彭博社也在报道中称，虽然中国经济一季度实现稳定增长，但这也引发了债务助推增长的可持续性问题。

　　亚洲开发银行行长中尾武彦近期在谈到中国债务问题时表示，如果GDP能以6.5%左右速度增长，那么中国债务规模是可控的。

　　今年中国政府将使赤字占GDP比重由2.3%提高到3%，债务增量的确有所增加。但从债务存量水平来看，中国仍远低于其他国家。2015年，中国地方政府债务余额加上中央国债余额占GDP的比重约为39.4%，而美国公共债务占GDP的比重达104.17%、日本高达229.2%、英国为88.7%。

　　在企业债务方面，IMF发布的报告警告，部分行业企业债务风险较高，并可能给银行体系带来一定压力。但报告也指出，鉴于2015年中国商业银行拥有约4000亿美元税前利润和约3560亿美元银行拨备、经济增长强劲以及政府整体负债水平较低，中国拥有足够政策空间应对银行体系潜在损失。中国驻IMF执董金中夏强调，中国金融风险可控是这份报告释放的积极信息。

　　近年来，中国政府通过一系列措施管控债务风险，包括建立债务风险预警机制、全面构建债务监管体制、实施地方政府债务置换等。

　　可以说，对中国公共和企业债务的过度担忧是没有根据的，忽视了中国整体负债水平较低的事实，也忽视了中国政府旨在降低债务风险的改革举措。

　　疑问五：人民币汇率稳定性

　　经历了年初的大幅波动，目前人民币汇率基本稳定。而在一些外媒看来，当前的稳定只是暂时的。英国《金融时报》就报道说，美联储暂缓加息，让中国避免了人民币即将遭遇的抛售，人民币汇率暂时稳定只是“运气好”。

　　当前，中国经济保持中高速增长、国际竞争力强、经常项目顺差仍较高，通胀率较低，人民币不存在持续贬值基础。这一观点得到了美国智库彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员尼古拉斯·拉迪的认同。他认为，尽管中国经济和出口增长面临增速放缓压力，但人民币不存在大幅贬值基础。

　　从数字上看，1月人民币对美元即期汇率贬值了1.3%、2月略涨0.48%、3月继续上涨1.23%。而加入SDR后，人民币汇率对“一篮子货币”保持了基本稳定。“目前外汇市场趋于回归正常、回归理性和回归基本面，这种趋势还可能会持续下去，”国家外汇管理局新闻发言人王春英如此表示。

责任编辑：樊英武

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