Tsai is not a city's "goodwill"? Here it comes

Book earlier. Speak of the devil and he will appear.

The day before yesterday, the island uncle had just finished reading the front page of people's daily commentator article, concern on both sides of the news and continued to weight. This is not propaganda, but to open the door, is the real goodwill was felt by people on the island.

According to the latest news, the World Health Organization in line with the principle of one China, invited Taiwan as "Chinese Taipei" name, "Observer" status for the 2016 World Health Assembly. Taiwan from 2009 to 2015 are invited to "observers" participate, but this time, the situation is very different.

　　The last bus?

Next Monday is the World Health Assembly (WHA) network application deadline. It is understood that the WHA meeting using Web registration, Member States and observers received invitations in the network registration user ID and password. Only by user ID and password, can be successful. See, this is a typical rhythm of just catch the last bus.

According to Taiwan authorities information received over the WHA invitation time, from March to May; received the invitation date is May 1, 2009 at the latest. Invitation not to this year, breaking the previous records at the latest.

Taiwan WHA has been very heavy. Authorities before Ma Ying-jeou to accept Singapore the Straits Times in an interview said, "Taiwan has yet to receive an invitation, a topic that is probably sensitive sensitive, are the top priority." For a paper invitations, twists and turns, Taiwan already suffering bad.

On April 20, the Taiwan media reported it's true, WHA "Observer" invitation process has ended, "Taiwan will not receive the invitation". Outsiders also have changes reasons is expected, is after the 5·20 identity "92 consensus," Ma Ying-jeou to point off the uncommitted aware of Tsai Ing-wen took office. Taiwan cannot join this year rumors of more like mainland policy toward Taiwan weather vane a gauge of mutation. To this end, the Taiwan "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" and "Wei fu" recently became a "legislator" focus of asked question and the media bombardment.

Officials in dare not guarantee, struggling even at their own expense to outside Geneva outside the trial record. Called the trial, the treatment is different, is to send someone to line up for early in the morning every day to attend card can not enter the Hall on the first floor, a typical guest roles. Looking back at the observer, will speak at the meeting, and there is a 5-minute speech time. For the needs of international visibility and presence of the Taiwan authorities, 5 minutes seconds seconds is a treasure.

Tsai Ing-wen, who took office in care? "Premier" Lin Chuan went out in the first wave of personnel appointments, announced Lin played extended "5·20" post as the new "Minister of Wei Fu". Speculation that is to participate in the WHA to leave enough space for him. Now Taiwan caught the last bus on the entry point of this Assembly. This session of the General Assembly, whether Taiwan is about to say goodbye to "Observer" status "last train"? Keys in the hands of incoming Tsai and the DPP.

　　Point in time

WHA this year will be held on May 23 in Switzerland Geneva meeting, Tsai 5·20 worked only three days. This point in time across the island handover, and concerning Taiwan, "international space" issues sensitive overlay, city can be conservative treatment, it is recommended that invitations a year who stopped, "watching his deeds" before deciding whether to release. This is many people gauge the action taken by the city on the island.

In fact, the city is taking out enough goodwill.

Although the extension is played first time announced by the new forest "Wei Fu Minister", but here's the funny part, according to the Taiwan media disclosed that invitations above the recipient's name to the current "Minister of Wei Fu" been Chiang. Through detailed analysis, Mainland or the Taiwan authorities as well. Since Ma Ying-jeou made it clear that, on both sides of the common political basis "92 consensus" reached consensus is Taiwan after 2009 to participate in the WHA. City, Taiwan officials say more clearly that covered the rules of an international organization is clear, without exception, all the one-China principle, Taiwan admits the "92 consensus", you can use "Chinese Taipei" flexibility, there is no "92 consensus", there is no flexible space.

Can say who's invitation with "reasonable arrangements" marks is an extension of Ma Ying-jeou era peace dividend. Think city, definitely not agree to issue invitations, so horse-8 "deviation" in Exchange for "face" off, such myths can take.

Taiwan's more than nine times publicly urged Tsai Ing-wen accepted the "92 consensus", but "on the Moon, when the moon shines on the ditch". Tsai has softened on both sides, but not on the core issues with the Mainland dock. So this time, who also reached at the last minute, allowing city to give Tsai "horse power" the rumors fall, Jing Wei, also with a discriminating choice. If the "92 consensus" relatively abstract concept of, Tsai Ing-wen, playing word games, such as space, then a paper invitations let it image, set a "one home people not say two home words" case and typical.

Conversely, if the admission is two people, how a door? More say, invitations will give new authorities face neither gold, nor to Tsai Ing-wen on the "92 consensus" vague solution sets.

Well, turn to "maintain the status quo say" show sincerity.

　　The international space

Taiwan seeks the so-called international space is a sensitive topic. The objective has always been to the Taiwan public opinion pressures of accountability. But there is a myth not desirable, is the old banner outside Tiger Island, swing dance fun Hey. City has China daily, Taiwan has China Times, CAI English accept China Times interview (yesterday Island tert-a excited Pigtailed into has joint reported, specially corrections about) does not representative she has identity "on both sides of with is a China"; Similarly, who is international occasions, APEC annual is international occasions, Taiwan hand took invited letter or confirmed civil identity only allowed participate in, does not can to outside proved Taiwan is independent Yu city of political entity.

Even so, nor on the island want to recruit, or even want to put aside the mainland alone. In recent years, Taiwan attempts to build the pipes with Interpol, but are knocking at the door to no avail. Taiwan "representative in France" Lv Qinglong headquarters in Lyon to visit in person, only visits the library, not even my visitor information registration. Contact the "plate" background, and recollection of President Ma Ying-jeou on the "92 consensus" is based, would have been more meaningful.

While the new authorities on this issue have been guilty, than "former dynasty", has not been selected on the key in the lock, even tickets for the peace dividends have not yet received. State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang 6th during the night should be explained clearly, and undermined the political basis for cross-straits relations, reasonable arrangements would be similar to the who Assembly to sustain. Public concerns on the island, Taiwan's "international space" will be more and more narrow. Because the city has the full capacity to bridge Taiwan has very narrow "ROC", it also has the ability to let Taiwan participate in the activities of international organizations in the future more difficult.

Of course, privately there is still little on the island. Such as the United States Senate recently passed a Bill to support Taiwan to join Interpol as observers. This year in the WHA invitation of anxious waiting, media had hoped the relevant departments in the United States and Europe on the island a "friend" of persuasion.

And eggs. International space sovereignty, don't expect every day which will rain clouds of the us, Japan and Europe. Taiwan head just for a day, that is, "on both sides". Without mainland China's goodwill and the default, and then flirting with strangers, at the international level is not something. City, is given in good faith, there must be a condition, that's what gets the support of the people. Greatest common divisor of both sides of the city, and to public opinion, naturally the "92 consensus" not belong to. From a city perspective, if the discharge is given in good faith, on international occasions in turn by the DPP to demonstrate its pursuit of "independent entities" implications, and how to explain to the 1.3 billion people, end?

Invitation is the answer sheet, is a bellwether, is also a stepping stone. To begin, Taiwan can continue to participate in the September Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the November APEC Peru annual meeting? Island media said there are still significant variables, "went on to fight a battle", is a test of, Tsai faces. Recognition of the "92 consensus", the wide expanse. If you try to continue to be a drag, as well as horses do not eat breakfast, and horses run faster, definitely not a good idea. Don't believe me? Think--city shortly before the Gambia diplomatic relations, Kenya and Malaysia Taiwan fraud suspects were escorted mainland, Taiwan represented Belgium international steel Conference was rejected ... ...

/Dong Lu guest editor/son Mowgli

(Editors: Biao Guo UN832)
2016-05-08 06:35:34
Knight island

蔡英文不是要大陆“释放善意”么？来了

　　书接前文。说曹操，曹操到。

　　前天，岛叔刚解读完《人民日报》头版评论员文章，事关两岸的重量新闻又接连而至。这次不是喊话，而是开门，是实实在在让岛内民众都有感的善意。

　　根据最新消息，世界卫生组织本着一个中国的原则，邀请台湾方面以“中华台北”名义、“观察员”身份参加2016年世界卫生大会。台湾自2009年至2015年均受邀以“观察员”身份参与，但这次，情势大有不同。

　　末班车？

　　下周一就是世界卫生大会（WHA）网络报名截止日。据了解，WHA会议采用网络报名方式，会员国和观察员收到的邀请函内有网络报名的账号和密码。只有通过账号和密码，才能报名成功。看看，这是典型的刚刚赶上末班车的节奏。

　　据台湾相关部门的资料，历年收到WHA邀请函的时间，从3月到5月都有；最晚收到邀请函的时间是2009年5月1日。今年邀请函迟迟未到，破了历届最晚纪录。

　　台湾方面一直把WHA看得很重。当局领导人马英九之前接受新加坡《海峡时报》专访时说：“台湾到现在还没有收到邀请函，这个议题恐怕是敏感中的敏感，可谓是重中之重”。为了一纸邀请函，中间一波三折，台湾早就煎熬坏了。

　　4月20日，台湾媒体还言之凿凿报道说， WHA针对“观察员”的邀请程序已经结束，“台湾不会收到邀请了”。变故原因外界也早有预期，就是5·20之后认同“九二共识”的马英九到点下车，尚未表态清楚的蔡英文上台。台湾今年不能入会的传言，更像是针对大陆对台政策风向标是否突变的一种揣度。为此，台湾“外交部”和“卫福部”近日来成了“立委”质询和媒体追问轰炸的重点对象。

　　不敢打包票的相关部门，焦头烂额之余甚至做好了自费前去日内瓦场外旁听的备案。所谓旁听，待遇大不同，就是每天一大早派人去排队领取旁听证，无法进入一楼会场，典型的匆匆过客角色。反观观察员，就可在大会上发言，且有5分钟主题演讲时间。对于需要国际场合能见度和存在感的台湾当局来说，这5分钟秒秒都是宝。

　　即将上任的蔡英文在不在乎？“准阁揆”林全特意在首波人事任命中，就宣布林奏延“5·20”后担任新“卫福部长”。外界推测，就是为他参加WHA留出足够空档。如今台湾赶上了本届大会报名时间点上的末班车。本届大会会否也是台湾即将告别 “观察员”身份的“末班车”呢？钥匙在即将上任的蔡英文和民进党手里。

　　时间点

　　今年WHA将于5月23日在瑞士日内瓦召开大会，与蔡英文5·20就职只差三天。这个时间点横跨岛内政权交接，加上事涉台湾“国际空间”议题，敏感度叠加，大陆完全可以保守处理，建议世卫组织停发一年邀请函，“观其行”后再决定是否放行。这也是岛内不少人揣度大陆会采取的行动方向。

　　事实上，大陆还是拿出了足够的善意。

　　尽管新当局第一时间宣布林奏延任“卫福部长”，但有趣的是，据台媒透露，邀请函上头收件人姓名为现任“卫福部长”蒋丙煌。透过细节分析可见，大陆认同的还是这届台湾当局的作为。因为马英九明确表示，两岸就共同的政治基础“九二共识”达成一致意见，是台湾2009年后能够参加WHA的主因。大陆涉台官员说的更明白，举凡国际组织的章规很清楚，无一例外都是一个中国原则，台湾承认“九二共识”，就可用“中华台北”弹性处理，没有“九二共识”，自然没有弹性的空间。

　　可以说世卫组织的邀请函，带着“合情合理安排”的印记，是马英九时代和平红利的延伸。认为大陆铁定不同意发放邀请函，所以马当局8年“倾中”换来的只是“打脸”送行，此种谬论可以休矣。

　　马英九多次公开劝蔡英文接受“九二共识”，无奈“有心对明月，明月照沟渠”。蔡英文虽然软化了两岸表述，但就是不在核心问题上去跟大陆对接。所以，这次世卫组织最后一刻又伸出手来，一方面让大陆要给蔡英文“下马威”的流言落空，另一方面也是出了一道判别泾渭的选择题。如果说“九二共识”的概念还相对抽象，让蔡英文等有玩文字游戏的空间，那么一纸邀请函就让它无比形象起来，树立了一个“一家人不说两家话”的事例和典型。

　　反之，如果自认是两家人，怎进一家门？更深一步说，邀请函既不会给新当局脸上贴金，更不能给蔡英文对“九二共识”的模糊态度解套。

　　好了，轮到“维持现状说”拿出诚意来了。

　　国际空间

　　台湾谋求所谓的国际空间是个敏感话题。客观上，当局一直存在向台湾民意交代的压力。但有个迷思要不得，就是老扯外界虎皮做岛内大旗，自挥自舞自爽自嗨。大陆有《中国日报》，台湾有《中国时报》，蔡英文接受《中国时报》专访（昨儿岛叔一激动张冠李戴成了《联合报》，特地更正一下）并不代表她已经认同“两岸同属一个中国”；同理，世界卫生组织是国际场合，APEC年会也是国际场合，台湾手拿邀请函或确认民间身份才获准参加，并不能够向外界证明台湾是独立于大陆的政治实体。

　　即使这样，岛内也不是不想招儿，甚至想撇开大陆单干。比如近年来，台湾多次尝试与国际刑警组织建立管道，但都敲门无果。台湾“驻法代表”吕庆龙亲自去总部里昂拜访，却只能参观图书馆，连访客资料都没有登记。联系这个面对“钢板一块”的背景，再回味马英九关于“九二共识”是基础的话，就更觉得意味深长了。

　　而新当局在此问题上一直比较心虚，因为比起“前朝”来，尚未选对钥匙开对锁，连和平红利的入场券都还没有拿到。国台办发言人马晓光6日夜间应询时解释的很清楚，如果两岸关系的政治基础遭到破坏，类似世卫大会的合情合理安排将难以为继。岛内舆论也担忧，台湾的“国际空间”会越来越窄。因为大陆方面有充分能力缩小台湾已很狭窄的“邦交国”名单，也有能力让台湾未来参加国际组织活动变得更加困难。

　　当然，岛内私下应对的小动作还是有的。比如美国参议院近日通过法案，支持台湾以观察员身分加入国际刑警组织。在今年WHA邀请函的焦急等待中，媒体透露岛内有关部门也曾寄望于美欧“友人”的说项。

　　然并卵。国际空间事关主权，不要天天巴望着美日欧的哪块云彩会下雨。台湾头顶只有一个天，那就是“两岸一中”。没有中国大陆的善意和默认，再跟外人眉来眼去，在国际上也搞不出什么名堂。大陆给出善意，也得有条件，那就是获取民意的支持。大陆和两岸民意的最大公约数，自然非“九二共识”莫属。从大陆角度，如果放水给出了善意，反过来被民进党拿来在国际场合彰显其追求“独立实体”的意涵，又如何向13亿民众交代、收场？

　　邀请函是答题卷，是风向标，也是敲门砖。以此开始，台湾能否继续参加9月国际民航组织大会以及11月APEC秘鲁年会？岛内媒体表示，都仍存有相当变量，“一仗接着一仗”，是蔡英文面临的考验。承认“九二共识”，本可一马平川。如果试图继续以拖待变，既要马儿不吃早，还要马儿跑得快，断断不是明智之举。不信？想想前不久的事——大陆与冈比亚复交、肯尼亚和马来西亚的台湾诈骗嫌犯被押送大陆、台湾代表参与比利时国际钢铁会议被拒……

　　文／东鲁虬髯客编辑／公子无忌

(责任编辑：郭彪 UN832)
2016-05-08 06:35:34
侠客岛