Objective and rational view of China's overall debt ratio _ news

According to securities daily, recently, some foreign institutions and the media have started to worry about the debt problems of China, said China had met with 2008 United States the same "Minsky moment"; the territory of academics have also borrowed the "Minsky moment" of the concept. So, how does China's debt burden? Is to wallow in the degree?

Public statistics calculated in 2015, Central and local government debt is about 262,000, divided by the total GDP that year, gross debt ratio is 38.7%, not very high. But local government debt reached 23.6%, belonging to the high area. Was also estimated the debts of local governments more than 100%. In August 2015, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report, 2014 end of real sector (excluding financial institutions) debt 138.33 trillion yuan, real sector leverage ratio is 217.3%.

HSBC the calculation result is that by 2015, China's debt to GDP ratio of 249%. Part of the external debt, Bank for international settlements is calculated as $ 877 billion; another part of domestic debt, mainly concentrated in enterprises (especially the State-owned enterprise) debt. By the end of 2015, the Government debt-to-GDP ratio of 44%. If the Government's contingent liabilities included, total government debt to GDP ratio will be expanded to close to 64% but, even under this level, general government debt is still manageable.

Although the caliber of these data some differences, but reflecting China's debt level is high and the reality of corporate debt burden; but on the other hand, the central government debt is low, low rate of household debt, a great adjustment. To solve these problems, in 2016, the Chinese Government clearly presented and solid implementation "to capacity to inventory, to lever, lowering costs, make" policy, attach great importance to risk of inefficiency, redundancy, debt, debt debt problems have also taken positive measures to make up for the short Board, release the reform dividend. One of the major appeals for reform, is to increase the proportion of direct financing. By expanding capital market size, expanding the depth of capital markets, large amounts of savings into equity investments, we have the advantage.

Up to now, the scale of China's direct financing of Community financed a total of only 13.9%, this data far compared with developed countries, such as United States, 2015 direct financing accounted for more than 80%. China can be adjusted by the system, expanding the proportion of direct financing, reducing the debt burdens of the real economy.

In my opinion, study the Chinese Government and corporate debt, leverage, both international experience and also depends on the specific reality of the country; on the different regions and different industries in the country, there are a lot of different situations. Big debt pressure, high leverage rate is not high, the key is to look at how effective use of funds, see the adjustment of the economic structure and the financing structure space in a big way.

In the United States are very popular "Minsky moment" what is a concept? Simply put, is the sudden devaluation of assets, scope of debt defaults, the financial crisis is about to detonate. United States Economist Hyman Minsky (Hyman Minsky,1919-1996) first proposed, so using his name. Minsky and noise due to the financial crisis of 2008 by foreign scholars, their logical relationship can be summarized as follows: investment is a major source of economic fluctuations, and the micro-Foundation is the financial instability, that borrowers and lenders risk volatility. This view has the certain reference value, but is also far from how profound connotations.

For any economies, developing economies need to debt. From 2000 to 2015, the global economy is developed on the basis of the debt, the debt is 3 times more than GDP, partly even in developed countries is 3.8 times. It can be said that debt risks in any economy is an objective reality; but the risk can be like a storm is coming, is actually made up of economy, social conduct and superposition effects of the mentality of the people to decide.

United States social long-term borrowing, uncontrolled consumption and waste, the financial oligarchy greedy, shifty, crises do not come it is strange. In China, not only the total debt ratio can be controlled, and foreign debt within the context of the world's major economies is low. Meanwhile, China's total GDP ranked second in the world, measures to resolve the debt problems more than any other country.

It can be said that although China is "debt", but not "serious wave of debt".

In my opinion, crisis notions are springing up, as thinking on the development in the new global economy and warns, in itself is worthy of respect and attention. But if these concepts are hard in all emerging economies, will weave a "distortion of the global picture."

China's development has its own logic. China's economic development and political system, regional complementarities and potential of the internal market, there is technology to upgrade space, there are needs for international cooperation, but the depth of the need to strengthen the rule of law and market-oriented. This is true of China's economy "description".

Responsible editor: Ms. fan Ying Wu

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客观理性看待中国的总体负债率_新闻资讯

　　据证券日报，近期，一些境外机构和媒体又开始担忧中国的债务问题了，称中国遭遇到了与2008年美国同样的“明斯基时刻”；境内也有学者借用“明斯基时刻”这个概念。那么，中国的债务压力究竟如何？是否到了不可自拔的程度呢？

　　按照公开统计数据计算，2015年中央和地方债务余额约为26.2万元，除以当年GDP总额，总负债率是38.7%，不算很高。但地方政府负债率达到23.6%，属于偏高区域。还有人估算地方政府的债务率超过100%。2015年8月，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布报告称，2014年末中国实体部门（不含金融机构）的债务规模为138.33万亿元，实体部门杠杆率为217.3%。

　　汇丰银行测算的结果是，截至2015年，中国债务规模与GDP之比达249%。一部分是对外债务，国际清算银行计算为8770亿美元；另一部分国内债务，主要集中在企业（尤其是国企）债务。截至2015年末，政府债务与GDP之比为44%。如果将政府的或有负债包含在内，政府债务总规模与GDP之比会扩大至接近64%；但即便是按照这一水平来看，政府负债总体仍属可控。

　　尽管这些数据的口径有些区别，但都反映出中国地方债务水平偏高和企业债务负担偏重的现实；但另一方面，中央政府债务率很低，居民债务率很低，大有调节余地。针对这些问题，2016年，中国政府鲜明地提出并扎实地落实“去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板”的政策，高度重视低效债务、冗余债务、风险债务问题，也采取积极措施弥补短板，释放改革红利。其中一项重要改革诉求，就是大幅度提高直接融资比重。通过扩大资本市场规模，拓展资本市场深度，将大量的储蓄资金转为股权投资，是我们具备的优越条件。

　　截至目前，我国直接融资占社会融资总规模的比重仅为13.9%，这一数据与发达国家相比差距甚远，如美国，2015年直接融资规模占比超过80%。中国完全可以通过制度调整，扩大直接融资的比重，降低实体经济的债务负担。

　　笔者认为，考察中国政府和企业的负债率、杠杆率问题，既要看国际上的一般经验，也要看本国具体实际；就国内不同地区、不同行业来说，也有很多不同的情形。负债压力大不大，杠杆率高不高，关键还是看资金使用的效率如何，看经济结构和融资结构调整的空间多大。

　　在美国很流行的“明斯基时刻”是个什么概念呢？简单说，就是资产骤然大幅贬值，债务大范围违约，金融危机即将引爆的时刻。因美国经济学家海曼·明斯基（Hyman Minsky，1919-1996）首先提出，所以用他的名字命名。明斯基及其思想因2008年金融危机而名噪西方学界，其逻辑关系大致可以概括为：投资波动是经济波动的主要来源，而其微观基础便是金融不稳定性，即借款人和贷款人的风险波动。这个说法有一定参考价值，但也谈不上有多么高深的内涵。

　　对任何一个经济体来说，发展经济都需要负债。从2000年到2015年，全球经济都是在债务的基础上发展的，债务基本是GDP的3倍以上，部分发达国家甚至是3.8倍。可以说，债务风险在任何一个经济体都是客观存在的；但风险会不会像暴风雨一样来临，其实是由经济体系、社会风气、人民心态的叠加成效来决定的。

　　美国社会长期寅吃卯粮，人们无节制消费和浪费，金融寡头贪得无厌、翻云覆雨，危机不来反而是奇怪的。而中国，不仅总的负债率可控，而且，外债在世界主要经济体范围内较低。同时，中国GDP的总量在全球排第二位，解决债务问题的手段也比其他国家多。

　　可以说，虽然中国存在“债务风险点”，但不具备“严重债务风潮基础”。

　　笔者认为，不断涌现出来的各种危机概念，作为对全球经济发展中新问题的思考和提出警示，本身是值得尊重和重视的。但如果拿这些概念硬套在所有新兴经济体身上，则会编织出一张“失真的全球画卷”。

　　中国的发展有自身独特的逻辑。中国经济发展有政治制度优势，有区域互补优势，有内部市场潜力，有技术升级空间，还有国际合作需求，但需要加强法治化和深度市场化。这才是中国经济的真实“性状”。

责任编辑：樊英武

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