Fu Ying at the Joint Media wrote: the situation in the South China Sea to come this far

Fu Ying profile picture. New Mr Liu Xinhua photo
News Agency, Beijing, May 11 of China's national people's Congress Foreign Affairs Committee Director Fu ying and Dean Wu Shicun, South China Sea recently in the China News weekly, and the United States published in the synchronization of the national interests on the issue of South China Sea jointly signed article.
This article sorts out the situation in the South China Sea in the evolution of many small and large events, show an association between them, hoping the problem extended context, for people interested in the South China Sea to better knowledge and understanding of its essence provide a reference, we also hope to avoid any misunderstanding and the deepening spiral of escalation of the situation provides a warning. Article summary is as follows:
In recent years, the South China Sea issue has become about Sino-US relations are the most important topics, both sides in the ongoing diplomatic and public opinion propaganda, military tension and even friction. Seems to be by competition and confrontation between China and the South China Sea issue unfolded, both starting from the strategic level to assess each other's intentions.
History is not difficult to find, in the 1930 of the 20th century, the sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, China does not have any international disputes, many maps and encyclopedias in the world marked the Spratly Islands belong to China. Spratly dispute originates from Japan imperialist expansion and organization of postwar order, fermentation of the cold war. Philippines, Viet Nam and other countries to the Spratly Islands ' originated in the late 1950 of the 20th century, arrived in the seventies or eighties of the 20th century, due to the discovery of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, as well as negotiations and the introduction of the system of the exclusive economic zone, such encroachment into a crazy phase of the operation.
After World War II, United States actually acknowledge that China has sovereignty of the Nansha Islands for a long time. United States had through diplomatic inquiries, applications for measurement, communications navigation over the plan, shows its recognition of China's position on the sovereignty of the Spratly Islands, China Taiwan authorities in Nansha about reception on the island had been United States military personnel. For the Philippines, Viet Nam and other countries claimed the island in Nansha reef madness, United States did not have a clear attitude for a long time, but has repeatedly assured Taiwan authorities consulted the views of the Islands sovereignty issue. Same period, United States published maps and books, such as the 1961 Edition of the Colombia Lippincott Gazetteer of the world, the 1963 Edition of the encyclopedia of the weierdemaike States, the 1971 Edition of the encyclopedia of world Division, also confirmed China's sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands.
United States policy dilemma in the South China Sea issue is during the cold war, although based on the law and ethics should recognize China's sovereignty over these islands, but on the other hand because the Republican push Asia-Pacific strategic considerations, United States and reluctant to let mainland China holds these islands, but do not want to damage relations with allies such as the Philippines.
In the early 1990 of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, at the end of the cold war, Asia-Pacific relations, economic development has become the main tone of the background and development of China's relations with Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN into the fast lane. In the meantime, China-ASEAN relations have witnessed rapid development of basic mask fluctuations of the situation in the South China Sea. To ease tensions, China put forward the "shelving differences and jointly develop" proposition, and ASEAN countries signed the Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea (DOC). 10 years after the signing of the Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea, in fact, only China has complied with its provisions and principles, without taking any controversial expansion of operations, and actively promote cooperation in maritime peace and common development. However, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries from the outset did not fully and seriously in the implementation of the Declaration, and constantly on the Islands and reefs occupied by rebuilding and expansion, strengthening administration, intensify oil and gas exploitation, detaining Chinese fishermen from time to time, a common point in these countries, is curing the illicit proceeds of embezzlement, negative controversy, instead of "laying aside disputes." These practices continue to stimulate China's domestic public opinion and sentiment, their unabated attention to the issue of Nansha.
From 2009, in particular the South China Sea situation after 2012 started to get nervous. By 2009, although all kinds of frictions, but is generally controlled the situation in the South China Sea, complicate the situation turn around in 2009, and the continental shelf of the United Nations Commission to submit information on the continental shelf outside 200 nautical miles for (May 13, 2009) to some extent, while United States strategy-adjusting on Asia-Pacific is a bigger stimulus.
Sino-US military friction became more frequent in the South China Sea, in 2009 alone, the United States ships and Chinese ships in the process of reconnaissance and anti-reconnaissance, there had been at least 5 incidents of confrontation between the friction. Among them, the most famous of number "impeccable" incident. Entering 2010, United States policy of accelerating the transformation of the South China Sea, characterized by "taking sides".
ASEAN countries and United States action in China by the media attention and media coverage has prompted a public outcry. China's restraint policy policy continuity and the pressure of public opinion. April 2012 the huangyan Island event can be said to be "the camel's last straw", broke China's policy and the limits of patience, China would have to take a number of measures to counter.
On January 22, 2013, drew attention to the official of the Philippines to the United Nations Tribunal for arbitration in China. In this regard, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement several times, pointed out that "the Philippines and substance of the arbitral tribunal to disregard the arbitration case is the territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation and related issues, and malicious evasion of China in 2006, according to the United Nations Convention on the law of the relevant provisions of Article No. 298 exclusive statements made" and stressed that China "does not acknowledge, does not participate."
Clearly, China and the Philippines to start arbitration was completely negative stance. Philippines claims that its arbitration on the grounds that consultations and negotiations had reached an impasse with China, but the fact is, since huangyan Island event, the Philippine side has refused any serious dialogues with the Chinese side, let alone negotiations, without consultation with other members of the DOC. Furthermore, in 2006, in accordance with Article No. 298 of the Convention made exclusive statements, as related to sovereignty, the jurisdiction of the Arbitration Tribunal of the historic rights and ownership, thus it has immunity from jurisdiction. No matter how the outcome of arbitration, there is no provision in the Convention can do arbitration against China.
Changes in the overall situation of Nansha, and Nansha, China to thoroughly improve the people's livelihood, basic military defense and the need to maintain sovereignty and interests, China at the end of 2013 in control kept myself on the reef begins expansion project, these reefs are far away from international shipping lanes, total absence of problems affecting the freedom of navigation. But the United States and the Philippines and other countries reacted strongly, and hype and accuse China.
In the view of many Chinese, United States is the biggest drivers of the current tensions in the South China Sea. First, the United States in accelerating the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy, more and more to China as the main target in the Asia-Pacific. In addition, American troops seized every opportunity to hype the Chinese "anti-access and area denial" threats, and actively improve the tailored for the Chinese "one war" and other concepts. The move undoubtedly increases the South China Sea situation in the Asia-Pacific, complication and tension. Many Chinese scholars began to pay attention, United States in the Asia-Pacific strategic adjustment preset threat or crisis, and led to "prophecy of self-realization"?
Nearly two years, the United States even more to the front, openly taking sides, direct pressure on China threats. "Impose costs" strategy began to be United States policy options, which means such as political, military, diplomatic, public opinion, increase the cost of operations, South China Sea, forced China to retreat, with a view in the absence of armed conflict to stop the so-called South China expansion.
United States South China Sea policy adjustment not only weakened the position of us just talk, has also deepened fears more damage to China's own interests, stimulate China's determination to enhance the ability to defend itself.
Situation in the South China Sea developed to this point, is a variety of behaviors and expression lines entangled with results, impact, interaction, but also due to some changes in the international environment and regional security situation. The factors contributing to situation in spiral, the parties continue to spur each other, not only based on sovereignty, resources, strategic security demands reality of conflicting interests, there are memories of incoherence of the lack of historical context and information, between strategic intention and objective speculation and skepticism. United States extraterritorial powers as a sea, its involvement and position changes complicate the situation in the South China Sea since 2009 the main cause. We are concerned about how the situation will develop in the future? Us concern about China's next step will be to take any new action, but also cast deep doubt on American intentions. Situation in the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands dispute, there is a risk of contradictions and even strategic miscalculation.
China's interests in the South China Sea over the years consistently, that is to safeguard the territorial integrity of the country and the need for maintaining peace and tranquility in the region. China cannot ignore the historical dimension. Although China is growing into a powerful country, but history's imprint is still profound, this country is stumbling under heel trampling of aggression of imperialism into the 20th century, Chinese people could not forget there have been more than a century of repeated foreign invasions, power the humiliating experience of bullying, it is a State and national an indelible memory. Based on this, the Chinese people and Government have to issues involving territorial sovereignty have highly sensitive, and would never permit such a thing even in local recurrence, which is outside the view and must be understood and taken into account when judging China. Of course, there is no Chinese living fundamental challenges major external threats and development, China unswervingly follows the road of peaceful development to promote world peace, development and cooperation, belief and commitment in this area does not and will not change.
President XI Jinping of China on April 28, 2016 in a yaxin meeting of Foreign Ministers stressed: China has always been committed to safeguarding regional peace and stability of South China Sea, firmly safeguard its sovereignty in the South China Sea and related rights, through direct friendly consultations of the parties negotiating a peaceful settlement to the dispute. Contact from the Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and ASEAN countries can see that China's "twin-track" the idea that by direct consultation through negotiation the parties resolve disputes, China and ASEAN to jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea, have been recognized by many countries and support. ASEAN also recognized that to control the situation, the importance of back tracks of dialogue.
Future development depends on the understanding of the parties and the choice, if you choose to cooperate, could be a win-win; if you choose confrontation, may be an impasse or even in conflict with, any party to benefit fully from it.
(Editors: Pan Yi burn UN657)
2016-05-11 16:38:10
China News Network

傅莹在中美媒体撰文：南海局势如何走到今天这一步

傅莹资料图片。 中新社记者 刘震 摄

　　中新社北京5月11日电 中国全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹与中国南海研究院院长吴士存近日在《中国新闻周刊》和美国《国家利益》同步发表关于南海问题的联合署名文章。

　　该文梳理了南海局势演进过程中发生的许许多多或大或小的事件，展示出它们之间可能的关联，希望借此反映出问题延展的脉络，为关心南海问题的人们更好地了解和认识其实质提供参考，同时也希望能为避免误解的加深和局势的螺旋升级提供一个警醒。文章摘要如下：

　　近年南海问题渐成为关于中美关系的最重要话题，双方在外交和舆论场不断相互喊话，军事上也出现紧张气氛甚至摩擦。中美之间的竞争与对抗似乎正在通过南海问题展现出来，彼此都开始从战略层面评估对方意图。

　　回顾历史不难发现，20世纪30年代以前，国际上对中国南沙群岛的主权状况没有任何争议，世界有不少地图和百科全书标明南沙群岛属于中国。南沙争议缘起于日本帝国主义扩张和战后的秩序安排，发酵于冷战。菲律宾、越南等国对南沙群岛的侵占发端于20世纪50年代末，到了20世纪七八十年代，由于南海油气资源的发现以及专属经济区制度的谈判与出台，这类侵占行动进入到一个疯狂的阶段。

　　二战后，美国实际上长期承认中国拥有南沙群岛的主权。美国曾通过外交询问、申请测量、通报航行飞越计划等方式，显示了其承认中国对南沙群岛主权的立场，中国台湾当局还曾在南沙有关岛礁上接待过美国军事人员。对于菲律宾、越南等国在南沙夺岛占礁的疯狂举动，美国长期未有明确态度，但曾多次向台湾当局咨询过对这些岛礁主权归属问题的意见。而同期，美国出版的地图和书籍等，例如1961年版的《哥伦比亚利平科特世界地名辞典》、1963年版的《威尔德麦克各国百科全书》、1971年版的《世界各国区划百科全书》，也均确认中国对南海诸岛的主权。

　　美国冷战时期在南海问题上的政策困境是，虽然基于道义和国际法理应承认中国对这些岛礁的主权，但另一方面由于反共和推进亚太战略的考虑，美国又不情愿让中国大陆占有这些岛礁，更不愿因此损害与菲律宾等盟友的关系。

　　20世纪90年代初至21世纪初，在冷战终结、亚太国家关系缓和、经济发展成为主基调的大背景下，中国与东南亚国家和东盟的关系发展步入快车道。在此期间，中国与东盟关系的快速发展基本掩盖了南海局势的起伏波动。为缓和局势紧张，中国提出了“搁置争议、共同开发”的主张，并与东盟国家签署了《南海各方行为宣言》(DOC)。《南海各方行为宣言》签署后的10年，事实上只有中国基本遵守了其规定和原则，未采取使争议扩大化的行动，并且积极推动海上和平合作和共同开发。然而，越、马、菲等国从一开始就没有全面和认真地落实《宣言》，不断对所占据岛礁改建和扩建，加强行政管理，加紧油气资源开采，不时抓扣中国渔民等，这些国家的一个共同指向，就是固化非法侵占所得，否定存在争议，而不是“搁置争议”。这些做法不断刺激中国国内民众和舆论的反感情绪，使得他们对南沙问题的关注热度不减。

　　南海形势是从2009年、特别是从2012年后开始紧张起来的。在2009年以前，虽然各种摩擦不断，但南海局势总体上是可控的，局势复杂化的转折大约发生在2009年，这与联合国大陆架界限委员会关于提交200海里外大陆架界限信息的期限(2009年5月13日)有一定关系，而美国亚太战略的调整则是一个更大的刺激因素。

　　中美在南海的军事摩擦变得更加频繁，仅2009年，美国军舰与中国船只在侦察与反侦察过程中，至少发生了5起对峙摩擦事件。其中，最著名的当数“无暇号”事件。进入2010年，美国对南海的政策加快转变，表现出“选边站”的倾向。

　　东盟部分国家和美国的这些动作在中国受到媒体的密切关注，而媒体的广泛报道也激起公众的强烈反响。中国的克制政策面临政策延续性和民意的双重压力。2012年4月发生的黄岩岛事件可以说是“压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草”，突破了中国政策和忍耐的底限，中国不得不采取了一些反制措施。

　　2013年1月22日，菲律宾正式向联合国海洋法法庭提请针对中国的仲裁。对此，中国外交部多次发表声明，指出“菲律宾和仲裁庭无视仲裁案的实质是领土主权和海洋划界及其相关问题，恶意规避中国于2006年根据《联合国海洋法公约》第298条有关规定作出的排除性声明”，强调中方“不承认、不参与”。

　　显然，中方对菲启动仲裁是持完全否定立场的。菲律宾声称其提出仲裁的理由是与中国之间的协商和谈判已陷入僵局，但事实上，菲方自黄岩岛事件以来一直拒绝与中方进行任何严肃的对话，遑论谈判，也未与其他DOC成员协商。再者，中国已在2006年根据《公约》第298条做出了排除性声明，由于仲裁庭的管辖涉及到主权、历史性权利及所有权，因而已免于管辖。无论仲裁结果如何，《公约》中没有任何条款规定可以执行对中国不利的仲裁结果。

　　针对南沙整体形势的变化，并且为了彻底改善中国南沙岛礁民生、基本军事防御和维护主权权益的需要，中方于2013年底在自己控守的岛礁上开始了扩建工程，这些岛礁都远离国际航道，完全不存在影响航行自由的问题。但美国和菲律宾等国反应强烈，并且大肆炒作和指责中国。

　　在中国许多人看来，美国是当前南海局势紧张的最大推手。首先，美国在加快推进“亚太再平衡”战略时，愈来愈将中国视为在亚太的主要针对目标。此外，美军抓住一切机会炒作中国“反介入与区域拒止”威胁，积极完善为中国量身打造的“空海一体战”等作战概念。这些举动无疑都增加了包括南海在内的亚太局势的复杂化与紧张程度。中国许多学者开始关注，美国是否在为其亚太战略调整预设威胁甚至危机，然后导致“预言的自我实现”？

　　近两年来，美国更是走向前台，公开的选边站，直接对中国施压恐吓。“成本强加”战略开始成为美国政策选项，即动用政治、外交、舆论、军事等各类手段，增加中国南海行动的成本，迫使中国后退，以期在不发生武装冲突的情况下制止中国的所谓南海扩张。

　　美国南海政策的大幅调整不仅削弱了美方公正说话的地位，也进一步加深了中方对自身利益受到更多损害的担忧，刺激中方增强捍卫自身利益能力的决心。

　　南海局势发展到今天这个地步，是各种行为和言论在多条线索上相互纠缠、影响、互动的结果，也是国际环境和地区安全形势变化使然。造成局势螺旋升级、各方不断相互刺激的因素中，不仅有基于主权、资源、战略安全诉求的现实利益纠葛，也有各方记忆中历史脉络的缺失和信息的不连贯，更有相互之间战略意图和政策目标的揣测与猜度。美国作为一个南海域外大国，其加大介入和立场的调整变化是2009年以来南海局势复杂化的主要肇因。大家关心的是未来的局势会如何发展？美方关注中国下一步将采取什么新的行动，而中方对美方意图也产生深深的怀疑。围绕南海局势和南沙群岛的争议，存在矛盾激化甚至战略误判的风险。

　　中国在南海的利益诉求多少年来一以贯之，那就是维护国家领土主权完整性和维护地区和平安宁的需要。观察中国不能忽略历史维度。中国虽然正在成长为一个强大的国家，但是历史的烙印仍然深刻，我们这个国家是在帝国主义铁蹄侵略践踏之下跌跌撞撞进入20世纪的，中国人民无法忘怀曾有一个多世纪的屡遭外敌入侵、强权欺凌的屈辱经历，那是国家和民族不可磨灭的记忆。也正是基于此，中国人民和政府始终对涉及领土主权完整的问题抱有极强的敏感性，绝不会允许那样的事哪怕在局部重演，这是外界在看待和判断中国时必须了解和考虑的。诚然，现在已经没有能对中国的生存与发展构成根本性挑战的重大外部威胁，中国坚定不移地走和平发展道路，致力于促进世界的和平、发展与合作，这方面的信念与承诺没有也不会改变。

　　中国国家主席习近平2016年4月28日在亚信外长会议上强调指出：中国一贯致力于维护南海地区和平稳定，坚定维护自身在南海的主权和相关权利，坚持通过同直接当事国友好协商谈判和平解决争议。从王毅外长与东盟国家的接触中可以看到，中方提出的“双轨”思路，即由直接当事国通过谈判协商妥善解决争议、中国和东盟共同维护南海的和平稳定，得到许多国家的认可和支持。东盟也认识到控制局势，重回对话轨道的重要性。

　　未来形势如何发展取决于各方的认识和选择，如果选择合作，可能是多赢；如果选择对抗，则可能是僵局甚至冲突，任何一方都难以从中完全获益。
(责任编辑：潘奕燃 UN657)
2016-05-11 16:38:10
中国新闻网