Foreign Media: beauty in the South China Sea, first concession that might prevent serious upgrade
According to foreign media reports, in view of the South China Sea arbitration ruling is expected in the next few weeks, in this regard, the United States has recently accelerated in the South China Sea issue, "fanning the flames" of speed. On the 5th, 6 warships of the Navy into the South China Sea, and Nansha keep Islands joint military exercises amid "voice" even United States defence experts call, saying "American" should be avoided at a war "stop Chinese construction of huangyan island". United States Forbes, 8th point Lodge is a sensational: China may be like Iran blockade the South China Sea.
However, the United States posture of confrontation led to the United States and allies more and more criticism. A number of foreign media or journal article, or cited comments on experts ' opinions, United States strategy toward China has a problem. "Artificial island in the South China Sea, China does not endanger the United States national security, but the United States has spent huge sums of money involved in unnecessary disputes in South China Sea. United States should reach a compromise to avoid confrontation with China in the South China Sea into unnecessary. "The United States on the national interest magazine website published an article said.
　　"The best get away from unnecessary entanglement in the"
United Kingdom Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) website has published an article saying, Philip from the Philippines in January 2013 start compulsory arbitration disputes in the South China Sea between the two countries after the arbitration case in South China Sea received unprecedented attention. The South China Sea has been growing in "high wind swells and contradictions", seems to mind drift away from the settlement of disputes. Even just around the corner of the ruling as "minority" wish, nor to dispute eased, it will be a battle without winners.
"The United States are not stakeholders in the South China Sea, in addition to publicly and privately asked China to comply with the arbitration, and the efforts of the allies to sustain freedom of navigation and overflight, United States does not have an empty sea, GEO and time advantages, unsustainable for long. Their motivation was clear: in addition to challenge China's claim to put pressure on China beyond is more to the world, and particularly its allies claim credit for the future when they can't go "unscathed" pave. "The BBC said.
However, the United States authorities do not see it that way.
"The United States was strong by the time beyond the symbolic gesture," freedom of the seas ". "The United Kingdom published in the financial times United States Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain article shouting said United States should increase the pace and scope of freedom of navigation operations, to challenge China's maritime claims to increase United States warships in the days of navigation in the South China Sea. Joint patrols and exercises should be expanded, and continue to conduct maritime surveillance patrol in order to gather intelligence throughout the Western Pacific.
Taiwan ettv news, United States Defense Secretary Mr Hague said recently South China Sea arbitration cases if any party fails to abide by the verdict of the Philippines and China will mean "in the generally accepted, the peaceful settlement of disputes in the international order risk beginning."
"Iran threatens to shut down offshore oil hub, in the South China Sea will also do that? "The 8th Forbes website published an article on this topic, said Iran's move seems to be in the South China Sea in recent days to take action" threatened ", particularly in China to enhance reclamation and other" military activities "background.
"The United States must demonstrate determination to tackle the South China Sea", Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported that the United States Chief of naval operations before qiaonasen·gelinnate said should be explored in the South China Sea held in American and Japan self-defense forces joint operations of the above training level, and highlighted the continued to expand "freedom of navigation," the need for action. However, he also pointed out that, in order to avoid excessive stimulation of China, it is best to start with humanitarian aid and relief operations.
However, while the United States continued vocal and tarnish the image of China, however, from domestic to international, but there are still many people do not buy it. The associated press reported, House Foreign Affairs Committee a senior Congressman, Democrat Sherman on the Obama administration's South China Sea policy has been strongly criticized, pointed out that the Obama administration exaggerate the importance of the existence of a sovereignty dispute over the South China Sea Islands, criticized the Pentagon exaggerates China's threat.
According to the BBC report, former Commander of the US Pacific Locklear said, beauty can never be a military solution in the South China Sea, the South China Sea to calm down, to avoid misunderstandings, and need for continuous dialogue. "The South China Sea issue will have to be compromise on both sides, changed the situation", he said, China should be allowed within the region, under the existing international mechanisms have more space to play, sounding pipes and roles, while the United States will have to ensure that this change for the world and region bring prosperity and peace as much as possible.
The latest issue United States the global policy information magazines published by its Washington Bureau Chief William Jones signed article points out, United States Government tried to intervene in the provocative policies of the South China Sea issue was a contemporary of the "gunboat policy", the urgent need to change course.
"Although the United States Government" to defend freedom of navigation "such high-sounding reasons to justify its provocation of the naval vessels in the South China Sea, but in fact the reasoning than the gunboats of 19th century European invaders stay more untenable in the Yangtze estuary. "The article says, United States violation of China's territorial waters, and its attempts to joint the few allies in the South China Sea" mini NATO "will minimize the possibility of peaceful settlement of the question of South China Sea.
　　Expression is you read the news? page
　　"The Obama administration does no cards to play"
"The fact is that in Washington, no one had ever really asked a crucial question: the United States willing to maintain established order in Asia and war with China? Clearly stated and answer this question before, Washington is unlikely to deter China. "Australia East Asia Forum Web site published an article, States should seek a United States role to maximize and minimize competition in the beauty of the new order.
The media publish another article were of the view that Washington one of the weaknesses of the strategy is to overestimate the United States military strength in Asia today. If there is a credible threat of military action for support, Washington's diplomatic offensive may also work. But China's overall attitude shows that it does not think it is a serious threat. Instead, Washington is unwilling to take the risk. Because China know that, although the United States holds the advantage in numbers, but today the United States is not at war in the Western Pacific in symmetry means that the United States cannot win quickly; only the United States first backed off, can avoid serious escalation.
Military costs increase significantly the area happens to be the United States against the "spoiler" of the South China Sea, one of the most important reasons. United States on the national interest magazine website published an article saying: the United States with more than 19 trillion dollars in debt, it cannot afford to protect and guard duty all over the world, especially when the United States when interests are not directly threatened. In fact, the United States allies in the Asia-Pacific region capable of their own collective security military spending.
"The United States strategy limited to China. "Japan Tokyo news reported said, American last year October to sea Spratly Islands sent has" Zeus shield "level destroyer, this year January and sent another a ship" Zeus shield "ship to Paracel Islands cruise, although showed that will continues to for" sailing free action ", but even in United States, most views also think China not stop in sea of action, Obama Government does" no brand can playing ".
United States President Barack Obama had told United States public broadcasting network said in an interview, US-China relations are not a zero-sum game, and stressed he hoped diplomatic mechanism for the peaceful settlement of disputes.
But that is not the United States intention.
"Two of the most powerful country in the world, are vying for military dominance of the Western Pacific, this competition will become increasingly fierce. "Australia the age newspaper published an article said this" could escalate into if not history, is the most serious conflict of our time, "struggle will be intensified. Conflict or confrontation is not inevitable. But the risk is real, the trend is very bad. Find a way to ease the competition in order to reverse those trends in the United States, remain in Asia in the coming decades to create conditions of peace, stability and growth.
"Only peace diplomacy to ease tensions. "United Kingdom website published an article in the Daily Telegraph said.
　　Expression is you read the news? page
　　"Regard China as an enemy is a serious error"
What about Asia's future? Australia National University's Strategic Defense Studies Center Professor Hugh White opinion, was "whether we like it or not, the Asian region will form a new order. Therefore, we must be more creative and think what the order will be ".
"Creative" idea is not without. Voice of America radio, May 9, 2005-2008 served as United States Deputy Secretary of State William Burns released a few days ago the United States President said in an address to Asian security challenges over the next half century, Asia-Pacific will be the United States's most strategically important regions, United States top priority should be the next President is what to do with a good relationship with China. In his view, China in helping address climate change, human trafficking, terrorism and transnational issues such as international health plays a key role, so that United States must be in close contact with the Chinese Government and United States do not make China as an enemy of the current error.
"Although China is likely to become one of our most important partners, but it will be our most important competitors. But this does not mean contradiction. "Burns said.
United Kingdom published in the financial times Web site Singapore National Institute of Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of public policy, said the article "while the two positions, but the two maritime powers in the world have a common interest in some fundamental issues, such as free shipping and" simple ". As the largest exporter of goods, and China's interests than the United States. Therefore, if the United States and China's interest in the 95% of the Ocean can be agreed on, and that they can do it in the South China Sea. What is needed now is nothing but a little wisdom. "He also pointed out that Obama working quickly and resolve the issue in line with Beijing's interests. To the next stage may be more difficult.
"The United States needs to review its supervision of participants did. If the United States sought to strengthen its policy, but indicated that his intention was to avoid aggression and risk reduction, although the situation in the South China Sea may not improve immediately, but may be able to avoid worse. "The United States published an article saying the Brown political commentary Magazine Web site.
Situation is quite urgent. "The seriousness of the problem has not risen to the South China Sea out of control, but such an event would have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. "United States Foreign Affairs bimonthly Web site published an article said that once the United States and China have eased tensions and stabilize security in the region, it could be in the broader region sign a broader multilateral agreement. The agreement could end the consolidation of a more permanent diplomatic process and tackle the root causes of maritime boundary issues. (Reporter Huan) page (source: PRC-people's daily overseas edition)
(Editors: Pan Yi burn UN657)
2016-05-12 15:48:00
People's daily online

外媒：美在南海首先退让才可能避免事态严重升级
据外媒报道，鉴于南海仲裁案预计将在未来几周内做出裁决，对此，美国近来加快了在南海问题上“煽风点火”的速度。在本月5日，中国海军6艘战舰开赴南海，与南沙守岛部队联合军演之际，“美国之音”甚至借美国防务专家的口叫嚣，称“美军"应不惜一战"阻止中国建造黄岩岛”。美国《福布斯》网站8日更是由此事提出一个耸人听闻的观点：中国可能会像伊朗一样封锁南海。

　　然而，美国一味对抗的姿态引来了美国内部及盟友们越来越多的批评声。多家外媒或刊文，或援引专家观点评论认为，美国的对华战略存在问题。“中国在南海的人造岛并不危及美国的国家安全，但美国却在南海花费巨资投入不必要的纠葛中。美国应该做出妥协，避免与中国在南海陷入不必要的对抗。”美国《国家利益》双月刊网站刊文称。

　　“最好从不必要的纠葛中脱身”

　　英国广播公司(BBC)网站近日刊文称，从2013年1月菲律宾就中菲两国间的南中国海争端启动强制仲裁程序后，南中国海仲裁案得到空前关注。南中国海局势日益“风高浪急、矛盾丛生”，似乎离解决争端的初衷渐行渐远。即便指日可待的裁决结果如“众”所愿，也无助于争端的缓解，反而会成为一场没有赢家的争斗。

　　“美国并非南中国海的利益攸关方，除了公开和私下里要求中国遵守仲裁、与盟国持续进行航行与飞越自由的努力外，美国不具有空海、地缘和时间优势，难以支撑太久。其动机其实很明显：除挑战中国的主张，向中国施压之外，更是向世界尤其是其盟友邀功，为日后自己撑不下去时"全身而退"做好铺垫。”BBC称。

　　然而，美国当局却不这么看。

　　“美国是时候超越象征姿态、发起强大的"海洋自由行动"了。”英国《金融时报》近日刊登美国参议院军事委员会主席约翰·麦凯恩的文章叫嚣称，美国应当提高航行自由行动的节奏和范围，以挑战中国的海上主张，增加美国战舰在南中国海的航行天数。应当扩大联合巡逻和演习，并继续执行海洋监视巡逻，以搜集整个西太平洋的情报。

　　台湾东森新闻报道，美国前国防部长黑格日前针对南海仲裁案表示，若菲律宾与中国任一方不遵守判决结果，将会意味着“在广为各界接受的、和平解决争端的国际秩序中出现危险的开端”。

　　“伊朗威胁要关闭海上石油要道，中国在南海会不会也这么做？”《福布斯》网站8日以此为题发表文章称，伊朗近日的举动似乎是中国未来在南海采取行动的“先兆”，特别是在中国加强填海造地等“军事活动”的背景下。

　　“美国有必要表明解决南海问题的决心”，日本共同社报道，美国前海军作战部长乔纳森·格林纳特日前表示，应探讨在南海举行美军与日本自卫队训练级别以上的联合行动，并强调了继续展开“航行自由”行动的必要性。不过，他也指出，为避免过度刺激中国，最好先从人道主义救援和救灾行动入手。

　　不过，虽然美国不断发声并抹黑中国，然而从其国内到国际上，却依旧有很多人并不买账。美联社报道，众议院外交委员会资深众议员、民主党人士谢尔曼就对奥巴马政府的南海政策进行了强烈的批评，指出奥巴马政府夸大存在主权争议的南海岛礁的重要性，批评五角大楼夸大中国的威胁。

　　而据BBC报道，前美军太平洋司令洛克利尔也称，美中无法靠军事解决南海问题，南海问题要冷静下来，避免误解误判，必须持续对话。“南海问题终须双方妥协，改变情况”，洛克利尔说，应让中国在区域之内、现行国际机制下有更多发挥空间、发声管道与角色，而美国则要确保这一改变能为世界及区域尽可能地带来繁荣与和平。

　　最新一期美国《全球策略信息》杂志刊发的其华盛顿分社社长威廉·琼斯的署名文章指出，美国政府竭力介入南海问题的挑衅政策是当代的“炮舰政策”，亟须改弦更张。

　　“尽管美国政府用"捍卫航行自由"等各种冠冕堂皇的理由为其海军舰艇在南海的挑衅行为辩解，但实际上其理由比19世纪欧洲侵略者的炮舰停留长江口的行为更站不住脚。”该文称，美国对中国领海的侵犯，及其在南海地区企图联合仅有的几个盟友搞“迷你北约”，将使南海问题和平解决的可能性降至最低。

　　您看完这条新闻的表情是？page

　　“奥巴马政府确实无牌可打”

　　“事实上，在华盛顿还没有人认真问过一个关键问题：美国愿意为维持亚洲现有秩序而与中国交战吗？在明确提出并回答这个问题之前，华盛顿都不可能威慑中国。”澳大利亚东亚论坛网站刊文称，各国应该寻求一种能将美国的作用最大化又能将美中竞争最小化的新秩序。

　　该媒体刊登的另一篇文章则认为，华盛顿战略的弱点之一是高估了美国今天在亚洲的军事实力。如果有可信的军事行动威胁作支撑，华盛顿的外交攻势也许还能奏效。但中国的整体姿态表明其并不认为这是一个严重的威胁。相反，华盛顿不愿冒这个险。因为中国深知，尽管美国在数量上占有优势，但今天美中在西太平洋交战的不对称性意味着，美国不可能迅速取胜;只有美国首先退让，才可能避免事态严重升级。

　　地区军事费用的显著增加恰好是美国国内反对“搅局”南海的重要原因之一。美国《国家利益》双月刊网站刊文称：美国背负超过19万亿美元的国债，它负担不起保护和警戒全世界的职责，特别是当美国的利益并未直接受到威胁的时候。事实上，美国在亚太地区的盟友完全能够承担自己集体安全需求方面的军事开支。

　　“美国对华战略有局限。”日本《东京新闻》报道称，美军去年10月向南海南沙群岛派遣了“宙斯盾”级驱逐舰，今年1月又派另一艘“宙斯盾”舰到西沙群岛巡航，虽然表明将继续进行“航行自由行动”，但即使在美国，大多数看法也认为中国不会停止在南海的行动，奥巴马政府确实“无牌可打”。

　　美国总统奥巴马此前在接受美国公共广播社采访时称，美中关系不是一个零和游戏，并强调，希望通过外交机制和平解决争端。

　　但这显然不是美国的本意。

　　“世界上最强大的两个国家，正在竞争西太平洋的军事主导权，这场竞争将越来越激烈。”澳大利亚《时代报》刊文称，这场“可能升级为即使不是历史上，也是我们这个时代最严重的冲突”的斗争将会愈演愈烈。冲突或对抗并非不可避免。但风险的确是切切实实的，趋势十分不利。想办法缓和美中竞争从而扭转那些趋势，对于创造条件在今后几十年里保持亚洲的和平、稳定和增长至关重要。

　　“只有和平的外交磋商才能缓解紧张局势。”英国《每日电讯报》网站刊文称。

　　您看完这条新闻的表情是？page

　　“把中国看作敌人是严重错误”

　　亚洲未来会怎么样？用澳大利亚国立大学战略国防研究中心教授休·怀特的观点，就是“不管我们喜不喜欢，亚洲地区都将形成一个新秩序。因此，我们必须更富有创造性地想想那个秩序会是什么样子的”。

　　“富有创造性”的想法也并非没有。美国之音电台网站5月9日报道，在2005到2008年期间担任美国副国务卿的伯恩斯日前发表有关美国下任总统应对亚洲安全挑战的演讲时表示，在今后的半个世纪，亚太将是对美国最有战略重要性的地区，美国下届总统最优先的考虑是如何处理好与中国的关系。他认为，中国在帮助解决气候变化、人口贩卖、反恐以及国际卫生等跨国问题上发挥着关键的作用，因此美国必须与中国政府进行密切的接触，美国不要犯把目前的中国当作敌人的错误。

　　“中国虽然很可能成为我们最重要的伙伴，但它也必然会成为我们最重要的竞争者。这样说并不矛盾。”伯恩斯说。

　　英国《金融时报》网站刊登新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长马凯硕的文章称，“尽管中美两国立场不同，但世界上的这两个海洋大国在一些根本问题上是有共同利益的，例如航运自由和"单纯通过"。作为最大的商品出口国，中国的利益比美国还要大。因此，如果美国和中国的利益在95%的海洋上都可以一致的话，那他们在南海也可以做到这一点。现在所需要的不过是一点智慧。”他也指出，在奥巴马在职的时候迅速解决这个问题可能符合北京的利益。到下一任上台后可能就困难多了。

　　“美国需要检讨其监督地区参与者所作所为的方式。如果美国设法加强其策略，同时表明自己的意图是避免侵略和减少风险，那么南海的形势虽然可能不会立即好转，但却也许能够避免恶化。”美国《布朗政治评论》杂志网站刊文称。

　　局势已经相当迫切了。“南海问题的严重性还没有上升至失去控制，但这样一个事件将会对全球经济产生灾难性后果。”美国《外交》双月刊网站刊文称，一旦美国和中国缓解了紧张局势，稳定了该地区安全，就有可能在更广泛地区签署更广泛的多边协议。这一协议可能最终巩固一个更永久的外交进程，并解决根本的海上边界问题。(本报记者 宦 佳)page (来源：人民网-人民日报海外版)
(责任编辑：潘奕燃 UN657)
2016-05-12 15:48:00
人民网