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published in(发表于) 5/21/2016 9:45:24 AM
Chop hand subject: 2015 online pull China GDP up to 2%,

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Chop hand subject: 2015 online pull China GDP up to 2%-online shopping, consumer-IT information

The past 5 years, who gains the most amazing? Not the price, but Internet consumption index, full expansion of the 12.1 times.

On May 21, China's consumer price index--the first network-Ant new supply networks of the consumer price index (hereinafter referred to as Internet consumption index) released. Data show that from January 2011 to April 2016, in five years time, network consumption expanded by 12.1 times times, compared with growth has been maintained in the retail sales of consumer goods total more than twice times per cent growth from per capita over the same period, based on the increasing numbers of online shopping, per capita consumption level of 96.0 April 2016, up 122.2 of the index from January 2011, or 27%.

Online consumption final consumption expenditure and gross domestic product boost rise. According to the statistics of national network spending amounts in 2014 and 2015, the report estimates the national network spending in 2015 to driving GDP growth 2%, national network spending to gross domestic product growth rate was 29.1%, contribution to the final consumption growth rate is 43.6%

Jia Kang, Director of the Institute of Chinese new supply points out that consumption will continue to be a stable operation of the economy, "ballast."

Worthy of note is that during the sample period, network consumption index and the new PMI level index compared with the fiscal year (to 1-4 months) were positively correlated, and correlation coefficients in the next 4 months maximum, this correlation also exists at the National Bureau of PMI. If this correlation over time of testing is relatively stable, the network consumption index for macro-economic forecasts and financial market development would be of some significance.

A character cannot ignore: 5 years, drink services such as network size expands 70.2 times times, average monthly growth rate of 7%, services-oriented network spending from 2011 April 2016, up to 25% per cent. Network consumption is from kind to service, from survival to development and enjoy the upgrade.

Where the money went? Data shows that within this time, buy a pack of bags, food and other consumption of real networks finance ratio fell from 95.7% in 2011 to April 2016, 75%, catering (off-line consumption), air travel, education and consumer services annual growth in consumption of services, such as 70%, becoming new consumption growth.

What's the fastest? Network consumption level, more economically developed provinces, enjoying higher levels of consumption. Beijing, and Shanghai and Jiangsu of enjoy type network consumption level (cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry, and sports entertainment, consumption) over has survival type network consumption level (food, and commodity,), from enjoy type network consumption level index see, Qian 5 name followed by is Beijing, and Shanghai, and Zhejiang, and Jiangsu and Guangdong, row in last five name of followed by is Guizhou, and Henan, and Shanxi, and Ningxia and Gansu.

City man does play, but online shopping in the village faster. The past 5 years, increasing numbers of three or four tier network consumption, where the incremental user transactions number accounted for more than three or four cities, from 2015, up 2011 in 63%. The rural market, consumption, China is becoming the mining potential of the "new blue sea".


剁手族发威:2015年网购拉动中国国内GDP达2% - 网购,消费 - IT资讯

过去5年,谁的涨势最惊人?不是房价,而是网络消费指数,整整扩张了12.1倍。

5月21日,中国国内首个网络消费指数——《新供给-蚂蚁网络消费指数》(下称网络消费指数)正式发布。数据显示,从2011年1月到2016年4月,五年时间里,网络消费规模指数扩张了12.1倍,同比增速一直保持在社会消费品零售总额同比增速的2倍多;从同期的人均情况看,在网购人数不断增加的基础上,人均网络消费水平指数从2011年1月的96.0上升到2016年4月的122.2,涨幅为27%。

网络消费对最终消费支出和国内生产总值拉动作用上升。根据国家统计局公布的2014年和2015年全国网络消费支出金额,报告估算了2015年全国网络消费支出对国内生产总值增长的拉动为2个百分点,全国网络消费支出对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为29.1%,对最终消费增长的贡献率为43.6%

华夏新供给研究院院长贾康指出,网络消费将继续成为经济稳定运行的“压舱石”。

值得注意的是,在样本期内,网络消费规模指数和水平指数的同比都与财新PMI同比(未来1到4个月)呈正相关,且在未来4个月时的相关系数最大,这一相关关系也同样存在于国家统计局的PMI。如果这种相关程度经过时间的检验是比较稳定的,那么,网络消费指数对于宏观经济预测和金融市场发展将具有一定参考意义。

一个特点不能忽视:5年间,吃喝玩乐等服务型网消规模指数扩展了70.2倍,月均增长率为7.0%,服务型网络消费金额占比从2011年4.3%上升到2016年4月的25%。网络消费正在从实物型向服务型、从生存型向发展型和享受型升级。

这些钱都花到哪里去了?数据显示,这一时段内,买包包、食品等实物性网络消费金融占比从2011年的95.7%下降到2016年4月的75%,餐饮(线下消费)、航旅、教育、生活服务等服务消费的年增长率在70%以上,成为新的消费增长点。

哪些地方跑的最快?从网络消费层次来看,经济越发达的省份,享受型消费水平越高。北京、上海和江苏的享受型网络消费水平(化妆品、金银珠宝、体育娱乐等消费)超过了生存型网络消费水平(食品、日用品等),从享受型网络消费水平指数看,前5名依次是北京、上海、浙江、江苏和广东,排在最后五名的依次是贵州、河南、山西、宁夏和甘肃。

城里人确实会玩,不过村里人网购的增速更快。过去5年间,三四线城市的网络消费人数不断增加,其中,三四线城市增量用户交易人数占比,从2011年的55%上升到2015年的63%。农村市场,正成为挖掘中国消费潜力的“新蓝海”。







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