Hong Kong media: Rob housing boom or tied up in the Mainland speculators "Millionaire" hopeless | real estate _ news

File photo: real estate.

Reference news, May 22, local media said the current mainland China, all kinds of occasions are talking about the House. Recent hit TV show characters in the Ode to Fan Shengmei's words: "I don't want anyone to know, I was in Shanghai for years, rent only. "As the topic gives rise" today's slaves are multimillionaires in the future "argument, and this argument is the current real estate on the Mainland and the mentality of young people, thus setting off a House stealing a share surge. But the actual outcome, what will happen in the next 30 years, people did not know, this unit will rob the housing boom is more likely to be real persons.

According to the business newspaper, May 16 in Hong Kong, people's view is that renting is a pure consumption, pay the rent without anything. Buying a House can be an investment, equivalent to RMB to the replacement property. So, if it is willing to spend millions of slaves, the future is a multimillionaire. Such inflammatory remarks natural middle-class introduced in the housing market. However, this argument is built on a series of unfounded on the basis set.

Reported that, first of all, this conclusion is based on the previous housing market in more than 10 years of experience. In the past more than 10 years, due to the real estate policy encouraging and promoting for mainland property market an unprecedented miracle of prices up not down. This real estate market is not a cyclical adjustment, prices can only rise and not fall, residents bought houses is to make money, while also pushing mainland real estate market to an extreme. However, this not only unsustainable real estate bubble of the Mainland (the Government recently acknowledged for the first time in China's real estate bubble), and cyclical adjustment is inevitable. In other words, not to mention the next 30 years impossible as more than 10 years before the real estate market development in the Mainland, is in the short term (within the last 3 years) periodic adjustment is the inevitable trend of the real estate market, mainland property market bubble burst, only a matter of time. If the real estate bubble burst, mainland real estate market prices can only rise not fall? If prices cannot rise and not fall, instead falling house slaves to become multimillionaires might be pie in the sky.

Reports and, secondly, this conclusion is based on the mortgage interest rate stays at the current low point, established in the mainland this year on the basis of monetary policy was too loose. But within 30 years not only changes in this era of low interest rates, increased volatility in interest rates and is very normal in the future. Just a bit of history, you will see that in the last 20 years of the last century, the world's main developed market economy countries interest rates average around 10%, China's interest rates is more than 10%, then the future rise in mortgage rates in the Mainland is also normal. If interest rates rise, home loan still can't afford it, after 30 years of wealth would have jifeidanda, where multimillionaires to speak?

Again, this conclusion assumes that the Mainland 30 years as more than 10 years before the housing policy will never change. That housing investment and live functions always confusing and, as such, rental is the consumption, as a House slave is an investment. It can be said that more than 10 years before the real estate market is going crazy in the Mainland, has scrambled higher and higher prices, the real estate bubble growing, the core question is to mix the two housing properties, the last housing market away from its basic residential properties and a handful of speculative money-making tools. However, don't say this kind of real estate policy for 30 years won't change, is in this year, the policy may change radically.

Reports said if the tax policy for the housing market to make it back to basic living functions, housing is not to become a tool of speculative money, 30 years after the housing market's investment properties come from? Living and housing return to its basic function, requires housing market prices back to sensible real estate speculation behavior will stop. After 30 years of residential investment properties are gone, house slaves how to be a multimillionaire?

Reported that it can be said that these assumptions, any is not established, "today is a House slave, became a multimillionaire tomorrow" the conclusions become castles in the air, or fantasy. However, it should be noted that it is this fantasy, so that many parts of China's recent unprecedented House stealing surge, housing prices on the crazy tide, first in Shenzhen, and then extended to first-tier cities, extending to around in first-tier cities and some cities in the Mainland. Whenever you see a housing mortgage loans to total loans in the first quarter of this year over one-third, 80% per cent of total loans in April, residents of medium-and long-term loans, you know that at present, mainland residents are hoping to use bank loans leveraged, even the down payment loan, allow themselves to be "house slaves today, 30 years after the multimillionaire". And, in recently of Rob room tide in the, into real estate market of not no housing of people, and most are is has room of, or in the produced who, these people are hope himself can grasp real estate hype money of last once opportunities, have Rob room, but actually, these people influx market Hou, not only policy and the environment will changes, and estimated no more of people to buyers. If that's the case, their expectations or fantasies will be gone with the wind, can all be seriously stuck, and even wash away the poor and heavily indebted.

Responsible editor: Kun Qu SN117

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港媒:内地抢房潮或套牢炒房者 变“富翁”无望|炒房_新闻资讯

资料图片：炒房。

　　参考消息网5月22日报道 港媒称，当前的中国内地，各种场合都在谈论房子。最近有人以热播电视剧《欢乐颂》中人物樊胜美的一句话：“我不想让别人知道，我在上海这些年，住的只是合租房。”作为话题，引申出“今天的房奴都是来日的千万富翁”的论调，而这种论调也正合当前内地一些炒房者和年轻人的心态，因而掀起了一股抢房潮。但实际的结果如何，未来30年会发生什么，人们根本就不知道，这股抢房潮更可能是将炒房者套住。

　　据香港《商报》网站5月16日报道，人们的观点是，租房是纯消费，交完房租得不到任何东西。买房可以算是一种投资，相当于用人民币去置换房屋产权。所以，如果今天愿意花数百万成为房奴，未来就是千万富翁。这样煽动性的言论自然把中产者引入住房市场。但是，这样的论点却是建立在一系列不成立的设定基础上。

　　报道认为，首先，这种结论是建立在前十几年中国住房市场的经验上。即在过去的十几年，由于房地产政策的鼓励及推动，让内地的房地产市场出现一个前所未有的房价只涨不跌的奇迹。这样的房地产市场没有周期性调整，房价只涨不跌，居民买到住房就是赚钱，同时也把内地房地产市场推到一个极端。但是，内地的这个房地产泡沫不仅不可持续（这一届政府最近第一次承认中国房地产市场存在泡沫），而且周期性调整也不可避免。也就是说，不要说未来30年内地房地产市场不可能如前十几年那样发展，就是在短期内（近3年内）房地产市场周期性调整也是必然之势，内地房地产市场的泡沫破灭只是时间问题。如果房地产泡沫破灭，内地房地产市场的价格岂能只涨不跌？如果房价不能只涨不跌，反之下跌，那么房奴要成为千万富翁就可能会是空中楼阁。

　　报道称，其次，这种结论是建立在住房按揭贷款利率永远停留在目前的低点上，建立在今年内地的货币政策永远是过度宽松的基础上。但不仅30年内这种低利率时代会改变，今后利率的波动与上升也是十分正常。只要读点历史，就会看到在上个世纪最后20年，全球主要发达市场经济国家利率平均在10%左右，中国的利率在10%以上，那么未来的内地按揭利率上升也是正常。如果利率上升，购买住房还贷都还不起，30年后的财富早就鸡飞蛋打，哪里还有千万富翁可言？

　　再次，上述结论假定内地未来30年的住房政策会如前十几年那样永远不会变化。即住房的投资功能与居住功能永远混淆，而且正如上述，租房是消费，作为房奴是投资。可以说，前十几年内地房地产市场之所以会疯狂，之所以会把房价炒得越来越高，房地产泡沫越来越大，最为核心的问题就是把住房的两种属性混淆，最后必然让住房市场远离它的基本居住属性而成为少数人投机炒作赚钱的工具。但是，不要说这种房地产政策30年不会变化，就是在今年，政策或许就会发生根本性变化。

　　报道称，如果内地的住房市场用税收政策让它回归基本的居住功能，住房不能够成为投机炒作赚钱的工具，那么30年后住房市场的投资属性从何而来？而且住房回归到它的基本居住功能，就要求住房市场的价格回归理性，房地产的投机炒作行为就会戛然而止。30年后的住房投资属性都没有了，房奴如何成为千万富翁？

　　报道称，可以说，上述的假定，任何一个不成立，都会让“今天是房奴，明天成为千万富翁”的结论成为空中楼阁或幻想。不过，也应该看到，也正是这种幻想，使最近内地不少地方出现前所未有的抢房潮、房价疯狂上涨潮，先是深圳，然后扩展到一线城市，扩展到一线城市的周边及内地一些城市。只要看到今年一季度住房按揭贷款占整个贷款三分之一以上，看到4月份居民中长期贷款占整个贷款80%以上，就知道目前内地不少居民都希望利用银行的贷款杠杆，甚至于利用首付贷，让自己成为“今天的房奴，30年后的千万富翁”。而且，在最近的抢房潮中，进入房地产市场的不是没有住房的人，而绝大多数都是有房的，或中产者，这些人都希望自己能够把握地产炒作赚钱的最后一次机会，纷纷抢房，但实际上，这些人涌入市场后，不仅政策及环境会变化，而且估计没有更多的人来接盘。如果是这样的话，他们的期望或幻想都将随风消逝，都可能全部被严重套牢，甚至于涤荡得一贫如洗、债务沉重。

责任编辑：瞿崑 SN117

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