Media: try not to make big news in China and the United States in the South China Sea _ not war South China Sea | news

United States Defense Secretary Carter

These days, twice a year the US-China strategic and economic dialogue opens in Beijing. This is the highest profile dialogue mechanism between China and, explore the shaping of a new type of relations between China and, as is common across thousands of years ago in ancient Greece of a man digging a hole, called "Thucydides trap".

But recently in Singapore ended the Shangri-La dialogue, United States Defense Ministers speak of aggressive, pointed to the destruction of the South China Sea, China peace, 5th United States Secretary of State John Kerry visited Mongolia Shi, also blamed China for "air defense identification zone of South China Sea", bring new turmoil to the South China Sea issue, coupled with the recent United States and want to sanction China's Huawei ... ... And so on, is also the background of the dialogue in Beijing.

Therefore, doomed relationship will not be easy, and bumps are inevitable.

This year, China and the most difficult issues between the two countries belong to the South China Sea.

Tert-observation Island, South China Sea has formed a "wrestling fight in the first half, the second half of the meetings to make peace" cycle, for a number of reasons, including weather, international atmosphere, island t-two years ago this was discussed in detail. Usually by the time June, parties focused on the South China Sea issue reached a climax this year Mo exception, and you may orgasm after another.

　The war of public opinion

Literally speaking, the game is now a full spectrum of integrated sea battle and confrontation, especially in the last two years of United States to the front, after the public to challenge China, United States and China in the South China Sea played their "bridge": surveillance and counter surveillance, harassment and harassment, deterrence and the deterrence, such as more frequent diplomatic warfare and legal warfare, the war of public opinion are rushed off their feet.

Here of course there is no lack of "anyone", foreign public opinion, including some of the country's military trumpet za za whirring claims in the South China Sea between China and "there will be a war."

But so gross, who is not a fool. United States there is no war intentions in the South China Sea and China, that's a fact.

In today's world, after all, and the 19th century are very different, one is a word not straighten arms waving fists? China has a high level of economic and social interdependence, and China is a nuclear power. United States military, diplomacy, international law, public opinion of all actions, actions in the South China Sea, China is trying to increase the cost, to force China to compromise, through indirect means to an end, because directly bound to Mapoor knife look, have to bear the consequences and costs of the armed conflict with China.

In this "imposes costs" strategy, the United States recently, many military actions in the South China Sea, but the military's role lies mainly in the deterrence and cooperate with foreign wars and the war of public opinion. Taking into account China's national strength, as well as the complexity of the relations between China and the foreign wars and the war of public opinion is the main battleground in the fight.

And the war of public opinion is the most important. On one hand, get the media involved, confidentiality of zoom in low profile in the past "freedom of navigation"; the other hand, the United States President, the Defense Minister, Secretary of State, the position too frequent Commander and other senior officials on the South China Sea, go into battle himself playing war of public opinion.

Since the end of the cold war, Foreign Affairs, United States official so hard, it is uncommon for the war of public opinion. Obviously, in the South China Sea and the struggle for public opinion, China has been United States elevated to a strategic height.

　　Word and find

With several predecessors, United States Defense Secretary Ashton. Carter level of rhetoric and language ability is very good, have to say, he is a master of words.

At the Shangri-La dialogue in 2015, for the construction of China's Nansha Islands, in his speech he called China's actions "Too quick, too much" (too much, too fast). Funny, world class infrastructure technology in China, not unpleasant.

On the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue, Carter, entitled "building a secure network of the Asia-Pacific region have common principles" speech. Accused China on the South China Sea "self-imposed isolation", hoping that China's entry into the "common principles of security network." He claims that "China's actions in the South China Sea, isolate themselves, and the entire Asia-Pacific region was United this time. If it continues, will establish self-isolation of the great wall of China. ”

Then, the "self-isolation" became a new Word, was deserted in China.

In fact, in the days before the United States Naval Academy speech, Carter delivered a similar speech, preview. In response, China's Foreign Ministry responded that "reflects the typical American thinking, American hegemony ... ... United States some people, the body has entered the 21st century, but the head is still stuck in the cold war, they fabricate any story to create news, look for and manufacturing rivals and enemies around the world. ”

In this regard, the island Uncle trying to say is, Carter said the United States Government, and that is to isolate China in the South.

Beyond words, United States efforts to find it.

According to United Kingdom BBC reported, Kerry recently in access Mongolia during said, "If China really of in Sea established air defense recognition district, will depending on this for provocation and the makes sea not stability of action, also was questioned China will whether perform commitment, to diplomatic means solution dispute", also said "any national are not should to unilateral action, will resources rich of sea ' militarization '".

On "sea air defense identification zone" is not the United States referred to for the first time, United States all speculation for almost a year now. But the Chinese Government and military have never publicly said he would immediately set the "South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone", although some experts have called for the initiative, but this does not represent the official meaning.

In fact, the establishment of the air defense identification zone is China's rights, not connected with the territorial sovereignty and maritime rights disputes. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said, "will be designated ' South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone ' is whether or not depends on the air threat, threat level and other factors." This meaning clearer, China has not set up the South China Sea the air defense identification zone is their business, but we also have to see whether some country has.

　　Who rules?

In the South China Sea issue, United States frequently claims that "does not stand on the issue of sovereignty, United States don't care about reefs and the delimitation issue of attribution", United States worried about the current situation, regulations and orders were changed. But the United States in the eyes of the rule or order is what? United States there are three words:

First, the United States that China in the South China Sea has "excessive" maritime claims.

Problem is, too much or not, should the United States decide? If the United States is based on the United Nations Convention, the United States is even less qualified because the United States is not yet a full member of the Convention. United States freedom of navigation operations performed since 1979, is downright hegemonism and power politics, and United States according to its own set of rules, was willful and challenges in the world including Japan, and Korea, and Australia, the coastal State claims. This set of rules, there is no legitimacy in the world, the fact that international rules, can only be described as United States their rules.

Second, the United States has rendered China impede freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

Problem is, United States found China not undermine freedom of navigation example. Instead, the United States continued to increase reaching reconnaissance against China, frequent in the South China Sea "show muscles" seriously damaged China's sovereignty, threaten China's security. The Charter of the United Nations, "said without the threat of force and the peaceful settlement of disputes", knowing that United States was signed. Into the road you don't go to walk in front of the national, the so-called freedom of navigation is clearly against freedom in other countries.

Finally, the United States accused China of "destruction of the status quo in the area of the South China Sea."

In the South China Sea, including land reclamation operations are strictly complied with international law in General, there is no violation of the Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea. If you want to find the places where change, that's because the balance of power in the region after China's strength led to changes, but this is a natural law, China cannot change or shift. United States destruction of the status quo for the South China Sea to be sharper and more aggressive. You know, United States has been in Singapore, and the Philippines, Malaysia and other places has substantially increased the lead military force and increased reconnaissance, patrol and exercises in the South China Sea waters. To say the South China Sea "militarization", Philippines, Viet Nam, lead, and the United States are the biggest.

According to Thucydides, history of war is emerging and conservative country's destiny, but modern warfare than the cold war era, if you come to blows, that is the consequences of the extinction of civilization. Thousands of years of human evolution, tamed cats, never able to tame the heart is motivated by desire.

China and the us can skip "Thucydides trap"? Well, world peace depends on the jump.

Responsible editor: Mao Minmin SN184

Article keywords:
The South China Sea

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媒体：不要总想搞个大新闻 中国和美国在南海不会开战|南海_新闻资讯

美国防长卡特

　　这几天，一年两度的中美战略与经济对话在北京开幕了。这是中美间最高规格的对话机制，探求中美间新型大国关系的塑造，为的就是共同跨越千年前古希腊的一个老头儿挖的一个坑，唤作“修昔底德陷阱”。

　　但想到不久前刚在新加坡结束的香格里拉对话会，美国防长的发言咄咄逼人，直指中国破坏南海和平，5日美国国务卿克里访问蒙古时，又指责中国欲划设“南海防空识别区”，给南海问题带来新的动荡，加之不久前美国又想制裁中国华为……如此种种，也是这次北京对话会的背景。

　　所以，历史注定了两国关系不会是一帆风顺，磕磕碰碰在所难免。

　　而这两年，中美两国间最棘手的问题非南海莫属。

　　依岛叔观察，南海局势已经形成了“上半年吵架较劲、下半年开会讲和”的怪圈，原因有很多，包括天气、国际氛围等等，岛叔两年前对此曾有详细论述。通常到6月的时候，各方关于南海问题的聚焦会达到一个高潮，今年概莫例外，且可能会高潮迭出。

　　舆论战

　　毫不夸张地讲，南海博弈现在已经是全谱系的综合较量与对抗，特别是近两年美国走向前台，公开向中国叫板之后，美国与中国在南海上演着各式“桥段”：侦察与反侦察、骚扰与反骚扰、威慑与反威慑等愈加频繁，外交战、法理战、舆论战更是不可开交。

　　此间当然不乏“唯恐天下不乱者”，国外舆论，包括国内的一些军事小号都咋咋呼呼地号称中美在南海“必有一战”。

　　但中美这么大体量，谁都不是傻子。美国尚没有意愿在南海与中国开战，这是事实。

　　当 今世界毕竟与19世纪有很大不同啦，哪是一言不合就撸膀子抡拳头的？中美有着高度的经济社会相互依赖，况且中国还是核大国。美国展开军事、外交、国际法、 舆论等方面的所有行动，都试图增加中国在南海行动的成本，以迫使中国妥协让步，意在通过间接方式达成目的，因为直接方式必然图穷匕见，要承担与中国武装冲 突的后果与代价。

　　在这类“成本强加”战略中，美国近期在南海的军事动作很多，但军事的作用主要在于威慑，并配合外交战和舆论战。考虑到中国的国力，以及中美两国关系的复杂性，外交战和舆论战才是斗争的主要战场。

　　而舆论战又是重中之重。一方面，让媒体参与进来，放大以往比较低调保密的“航行自由行动”；另一方面，美国总统、国防部长、国务卿、太总部司令等高官频繁就南海事务表态，亲自披挂上阵打舆论战。

　　自冷战结束以来，在对外事务方面，美国官方如此上心、大搞舆论战的情况实属罕见。显然，在南海与中国的舆论斗争已被美国提升到一个相当战略的高度。

　　造词与找事儿

　　与几个前任相比，美国国防部长阿什顿﹒卡特的修辞水平和语言能力显得格外出色，不得不说，他是个造词的高手。

　　在2015年的香格里拉对话会上，针对中国的南沙岛礁建设，他在讲话中称中国的动作“Too quick， too much”（太快太多了）。想来可笑，中国基建技术世界一流，想不快也不行啊。

　　在 刚闭幕的香格里拉对话会上，卡特发表题为“构建亚太地区有共同原则的安全网络”的讲话。指责中国在南海问题上“自我孤立”，希望中国加入“有共同原则的安 全网络”。他声称，“中国在南海的行动，孤立了自己，而这个时候整个亚太地区正在团结起来。如果继续下去的话，中国会建立起自我孤立的长城。”

　　于是，“自我孤立”又成了个新词儿，搞得中国众叛亲离似的。

　　实际上，在几天前的美国海军军官学校的演讲中，卡特就发表过类似的讲话，进行过预演。对此，中国外交部的回应是，“反映了典型的美式思维、美式霸权……美方有一些人，身体虽已进入21世纪，但脑袋还停留在冷战时期，他们杜撰故事，炮制新闻，在世界各地寻找和制造对手和敌人。”

　　对此，岛叔想说的是，卡特说出了美国政府的心声，那就是要在南海孤立中国。

　　造词儿之外，美国还努力找事儿。

　　据英国BBC报道，克里近日在访问蒙古期间表示，“如果中国真的在南海设立防空识别区，将视此为挑衅及令南海不稳的行动，也令人质疑中国会否履行承诺，以外交手段解决争议”，还称“任何国家都不应以单方面行动，将资源丰富的南海‘军事化’”。

　　关于“南海防空识别区”，已不是美国首次提及，美国都炒作了快一年了。但中国政府和军方从来没有公开说过要马上设置“南海防空识别区”，虽然有个别专家学者呼吁过该倡议，但这并不能代表官方的意思。

　　事 实上，设立防空识别区是中国的权利，与领土主权和海洋权益争端没有关系。外交部曾表示，“将来是否划设‘南海防空识别区’取决于空中安全是否受到威胁、威 胁程度及其他各方面因素”。这意思再明白不过，中国设不设南海防空识别区是自家的事儿，不过我们也得看某些国家是不是配合了。

　　谁的规则？

　　在南海问题上，美国频繁声称，“在主权问题上不持立场，美国不关心岛礁归属和海域划界问题”，美国担心的是现状、规则和秩序被改变。但美国眼中的规则或秩序是什么呢？美国有三种说辞：

　　首先，美国认为中国在南海有“过度”的海洋主张。

　　问题是，过度与否，是否要由美国来决定？如果美国是基于《联合国海 洋法公约》，那么美国就更没有资格，因为美国尚不是《公约》的正式成员。美国自1979年执行的航行自由行动，是彻头彻尾的霸权主义和强权政治，美国依据 自己的这套规则，非常任性地在世界上挑战包括日本、韩国、澳大利亚在内的各沿海国的主张。这套规则在世界上根本没有合法性，很难说是国际规则，只能说是美 国自己的规则。

　　其次，美国一直渲染中国妨碍了南海地区的航行自由。

　　问 题是，美国又找不出中国破坏航行自由的例子。反而，美国不断加大针对中国的抵近侦察，频繁在南海“秀肌肉”，严重损害了中国的主权利益，危及到中国的安 全。《联合国宪章》说，“不以武力相威胁及和平解决争议”，要知道美国也是签了字的。朝天的大道你不走，偏要在中国家门口溜达，这种所谓航行自由明显在危 害其他国家的自由。

　　最后，美国指责中国在“破坏南海地区的现状”。

　　中 国在南海包括陆域吹填等行动都严格遵守一般国际法，也没有违反《南海各方行为宣言》。如果非要找出改变的地方，那就是因为中国力量增强后导致的地区力量平 衡变化，但这是自然规律，中国无法改变或左右。但美国对于南海地区现状的破坏要更为剧烈，也更具有进攻性。要知道，美国已经在新加坡、菲律宾、马来西亚等 地大幅增加了前置军事力量，并加大在南海海域的侦察、巡航和演习等力度。要说南海“军事化”，菲律宾、越南等是始作俑者，而美国则是力度最大的。

　　照修昔底德看来，新兴大国和守成大国之间的战争是历史的宿命，但现代战争不比冷兵器时代，如果真打起来，那就是文明灭绝的后果。人类进化了几千年了，驯服了阿猫阿狗，始终没能驯服内心被利益驱使的欲望。

　　中美两国能不能跳过“修昔底德陷阱”？恩，世界和平就看这一跳了。

责任编辑：茅敏敏 SN184

文章关键词：
南海

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