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At present, China has entered the stage of middle income. Taken together, then six or seven-year time span "middle-income trap", into the ranks of high-income countries, and much suspense. Problem is the key, and after entering the stage of higher income, with American and European countries are still lags in China. Therefore, you must focus on the long term, increased restructuring efforts at the current stage, remolding the dynamic sources of growth, China across the "middle-income trap" remain strong after the development of power and the smooth realization of second century goal of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the Chinese dream. China's long-term economic trends? Out of the middle stages before and after how to maintain strong growth momentum? Summarizing experience and success across the "middle-income trap" economies of experience, we can draw some inspiration.

　　Across the "middle-income trap" economy and development experience

America and European countries and Japan as early as on the road to industrialization, economic development in modern times has been in a leading position in the world, in its development of experiences and lessons learned for later reference. After World War II, has successfully and there are economies out of the middle stage, into the ranks of high-income economies. First of all is to "four little dragons of Asia" as a representative of emerging economies and several other small economies from the 60 's of the last century began to take off, to the late 80 's and early 90 's have entered the stage of high income. And Central and Eastern Europe in transition and emerging market economies in South America, "magna cum laude", since the beginning of this century across the "middle-income trap", entering the stage of high income. Worth mentioning is that 2011 is the South American country out of the "middle-income trap" of the year. Chile and Uruguay this year across the South American country after World War II the collective into, for over half a century of "middle-income trap", become the first to enter the ranks of high-income country in South America.

These developing economies, they maintain a high level of development or to enter higher-income stage of historical conditions are different, way different, experience is different, in General can be summarized into three main lessons: first, increasing total factor productivity. Old capitalist countries would increase total factor productivity as an important source of growth, technological progress promote and inspire the creativity of these countries in the late 60 and early 70 achieved its peak; although experienced economic fluctuations and crises, but has remained a world leader. Second, open. "Asian Tigers" as the representative of the Asian model, seize the historical opportunity of changing the growth mode, the implementation of export-oriented development strategy, deeply involved in the international division of labour, catch the high-speed development of the world economy, which span the "middle-income trap". Third, the introduction of market economy. East European countries in transition economy is good, reached $ 2000-3000 in gross national income per capita at the beginning of transition, transition, market economics, productive forces faster development in Mainland South America, Chile and Uruguay was able to walk out of the "middle-income trap", but also because they are the most regulated market economy of the South American continent countries.

　　The prospects of China's economy from low to high income in four development stages

Reference to the World Bank and the four income groups Division, stage of economic development in China since 1978 can be appropriately divided and forward-looking forecasts. Comparative international experience, combined with the actual, in-depth analysis of the four stages can be found basically exist across the "middle-income trap" condition.

The first stage is the stage of low-income (1978-1998). In this period, China's per capita national income rose from $ 190 to $ 820, 20 years out from the low income phase. In this process, the Socialist market economy, reform is the motive force to drive economic growth, apparently from the countryside to urban State-owned enterprise reform, from ownership to introduce competition, productivity growth potential in market mechanisms under the action of releasing.

The second stage is the stage of lower middle income (1999-2009). China's economic growth at this stage is characterized by labour, physical factors such as capital, land and other natural resources continue to increase, driven the growth impetus came mainly from factors. At this stage, labour-intensive export-oriented foreign trade has become an important engine of growth, foreign exchange reserves rose by more than 10 times; investment rates remain high; real estate to become a pillar industry. However, high investment and high growth comes at a price of resource growth unsustainable contradictions emerged.

On the third stage is the middle stage (around 2010-2023). In 2010, China entered the middle stage. Meanwhile, from the high-speed economic growth began to shift to high speed, into the new normal of economic development. In accordance with high economic growth projections, our country out of this stage will take about 13 years. In the upper middle income phase, conventional element gradually disappeared, and large-scale investment constraints, growth slowed down, as soon as possible to increase productivity, grow from extensive to intensive growth, shifting from factor-driven innovation-driven. To that end, the party advancing the supply side structural reform in a timely manner, through to production capacity, inventory, and to leverage and improve the quality and efficiency of the supply side through cost reduction, fill the short Board, increase productivity, investment productivity and competitiveness. Promote the supply side of structural reform is to ensure that the high growth of the economy and across the "middle-income trap" "lifeline".

Stage of phase IV is a high income (expected to start from around 2024). High income economies is not necessarily developed economies. Developed countries must comply with a set of comprehensive evaluation system, a prominent feature was to be the technical and creative nation, must be based on source technology innovation as the motive force to drive growth. At present, the contribution rate of technological innovation to economic growth in China has risen to 55.3%, but still far below the level of the developed countries. Innovation and development is the new development of the CPC Central Committee put forward the idea of the article, improving innovation ability is the important content of supply side structural reform. These new ideas and new initiatives are intended to solve the current problems, focusing on long-term development. Only implement these new ideas, new initiatives, efforts to improve the capability of independent innovation, innovation-driven development strategy, speed up the construction of an innovative country, can we achieve the goal of reach the level of moderately developed countries by mid-century.

　　To the moderately developed countries after crossing the high income threshold

After decades of sustained and rapid development, we have confidence in the future: as long as politically subversive errors, does not appear on the economic devastation, breakfront fluctuations do not appear in the system, and then six or seven years, China successfully across the "middle-income trap" will be no suspense. By then, the centennial of the first goal has been achieved, overall well-off society has been built.

After you crossed the high income threshold set by the World Bank in China, still have a long way to go. At present, the high income threshold is $ 12,600 per capita gross national income, while the United States has reached US $ 55,000, Luxembourg more than $ 110,000, span very large. For my country, crossing the "middle-income trap", the next aim is to move towards "medium developed country." Aims of moderately developed countries by Comrade DENG Xiaoping in the late 80 planned "three-step" strategy was first proposed. Described in terms of per capita index, moderately developed countries about 2015 Korea achieved the level of GNI per capita US $ 27,000. If moderate growth excluding price factors, around 2035 gross national income per capita in China will reach us $ 26,000-30,000 (2015). This is another important phase of our economy will experience, can be seen as economic development since the reform and opening up "the fifth stage", directly related to the successful realization of second century goal dreams, China and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In the ranks of high-income economies and on the path towards medium-developed countries, will usher in a more of a challenge, but as long as unswervingly follow the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, we will be able to successfully achieve their goals. From the experience in the development of the economy, we can also get the following three revelations.

First of all, the experience from developed countries in Europe and America are displayed: with the development of economy, driven by innovation highlights the growing importance, mainly driven by factors of growth towards innovation-driven growth. My country has always attached great importance to scientific and technological innovation, every year on this investment is huge. After entering the stage of high income, promote innovation need to rely on all social forces, innovation-driven effects can increase total factor productivity to verify. More in higher-income stage, the need to increase the contribution of innovation to economic growth.

Secondly, the two groups entered the stage of high income economies after World War II the important experience which are open and the market economy, which is the basic experience of China's rapid economic growth over the past more than 30 years. The former external conditions, which is an internal condition. After entering the stage of high income, the basic experience is still driving two wheels of economic growth, are indispensable.

Third, across the "middle-income trap", and on the road to moderately developed countries, to be more fully release the economic potential, supporting economic development, must try to increase its soft power. Soft power is "invisible elements", in the higher-income stage of its less important than tangible elements. Ways to increase its soft power is mainly system building and cultural construction, and this is not an overnight thing, from now on should redouble their attention it as among the moderately developed countries and realize the goal of second century an important cornerstone. By pushing forward the institutional innovation and cultural innovation, China's soft power is more expensive than hard power, and also hard.

(Zheng Chinese Academy of social sciences researcher at the Center for studies of theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, United States Institute of)

Source: people's daily

Responsible editor: Liu Debin SN222

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人民日报:中国预计从2024年开始进入高收入阶段|人民日报|中等收入陷阱|高收入国家_新闻资讯

　　当前，我国已经进入上中等收入阶段。综合来看，再用六七年时间跨越“中等收入陷阱”、进入高收入国家行列，并无太大悬念。问题的关键是，进入高收 入阶段以后，我国同欧美发达国家依然存在较大差距。因此，必须着眼长远，在现阶段就加大结构调整力度、重塑增长动力源，使我国在跨越“中等收入陷阱”后依 然保持强劲发展动力，顺利实现第二个百年奋斗目标和中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦。中国经济长期趋势如何？在走出中等收入阶段前后如何保持强劲增长动力？总结 我国实践经验和成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”经济体的经验，可以得出一些启示。

　　跨越“中等收入陷阱”的经济体及其发展经验

　　欧美发达国家和日本最早走上工业化道路，近代以来经济发展一直处于世界领先地位，其发展中的经验和教训可以为后来者提供借鉴。二战以后，先后又有一些经 济体成功走出中等收入阶段、进入高收入经济体行列。首先是以“亚洲四小龙”为代表的新兴经济体和其他几个小型经济体从上世纪60年代开始起飞，到上世纪 80年代和90年代初纷纷进入高收入阶段。然后是中东欧转型的新兴市场经济体和南美大陆的“优等生”，进入本世纪以来先后跨越“中等收入陷阱”，进入高收 入阶段。值得一提的是，2011年是南美一些国家走出“中等收入陷阱”的元年。智利和乌拉圭在这一年成功跨越二战后南美国家集体陷入的、长达半个多世纪的 “中等收入陷阱”，成为率先进入高收入行列的南美国家。

　　先后发展起来的这些经济体，它们保持较高发展水平或进入高收入阶段的历史条件不 同、发展道路不同、经验各有千秋，总的来说可归纳出三条主要经验：第一，提高全要素生产率。老牌资本主义国家将提高全要素生产率作为增长的重要动力源泉， 技术进步的推动和创新活力的激发使这些国家在上世纪60年代末、70年代初达到发展巅峰；虽然后来经历了经济波动和危机，但始终保持世界领先地位。第二， 坚持对外开放。以“亚洲四小龙”为代表的东亚模式，抓住转变增长方式的历史机遇，实施外向型发展战略，深度参与国际分工，搭上世界经济高速发展的快车，因 而顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”。第三，实行市场经济。中东欧转型国家经济基础较好，在转型之初人均国民总收入就达到2000—3000美元，转型之后实行市 场经济，生产力得到较快发展；在南美大陆，智利和乌拉圭之所以能够率先走出“中等收入陷阱”，也是因为它们是南美大陆最规范地实行市场经济的国家。

　　展望中国经济从低收入到高收入的四个发展阶段

　　参照世界银行对四个收入组的划分，可以对1978年以来我国经济发展阶段进行相应划分和前瞻性预测。对照国际经验、结合我国实际，深入分析这四个阶段可以发现，我国已基本具备跨越“中等收入陷阱”的条件。

　　第一阶段是低收入阶段(1978—1998年)。在这一时间段，我国人均国民总收入从190美元增长到820美元，用20年时间从低收入阶段走出来。在 这一过程中，社会主义市场经济体制改革是驱动经济增长的根本动力，从农村包产到户到城镇国企改革，从产权明晰到引入竞争机制，生产力发展潜力在市场机制作 用下不断释放。

　　第二阶段是下中等收入阶段(1999—2009年)。我国经济增长在这个阶段的典型特征是劳动、资本、土地和其他自然资源等有形要素投入不断加大，增长动力主要来自要素驱动。在这一阶段，以劳动密集型产品出口为主的对外贸易成为重要增长引擎，外汇储备增长了十几倍；投资率保持高位；房地产成为国民经济支柱产业。然而，高投入、高增长也付出了资源环境代价，增长不可持续的矛盾凸显出来。

　　第三阶段是上中等收入阶段(2010—2023年左右)。2010年，我国进入上中等收入阶段。同时，经济增长开始从高速换挡为中高速，步入经济发展新 常态。按照中高经济增速来推算，我国走出这一阶段将用约13年时间。在上中等收入阶段，传统要素的优势逐步消失，大规模投入受到制约，增长速度减缓，要求 尽快提高生产率，从粗放增长转向集约增长，从要素驱动转向创新驱动。为此，党中央及时提出推进供给侧结构性改革，通过去产能、去库存、去杠杆，提高供给侧 的质量和效率；通过降成本、补短板，提高企业生产率、投入产出率和竞争力。推进供给侧结构性改革，是确保经济中高增速和跨越“中等收入陷阱”的“生命 线”。

　　第四阶段是高收入阶段(预计从2024年左右开始)。高收入经济体并不必然是发达经济体。成为发达经济体要符合一套综合评价体 系，一个突出特征就是必须是技术创新型国家，必须以技术创新作为驱动增长的根本动力源泉。目前，我国技术创新对经济增长的贡献率已上升至55.3%，但仍 远低于发达国家水平。创新发展是党中央提出的新发展理念的第一条，提高创新能力是供给侧结构性改革的重要内容。这些新理念和新举措，既着眼于解决我国当前 问题，也着眼于实现长期发展。只有认真贯彻这些新理念、新举措，努力提高自主创新能力，实施创新驱动发展战略，加快建设创新型国家，才能顺利实现本世纪中 叶达到中等发达国家水平的目标。

　　跨过高收入门槛后向中等发达国家迈进

　　经过几十年的持续快速发展，我们对未来充满信心：只要政治上不出现颠覆性错误，经济上不出现毁灭性打击，制度上不出现断层式波动，再过六七年，我国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”将无悬念。届时，第一个百年奋斗目标已经实现，全面小康社会已经建成。

　　我国在跨过世界银行设定的高收入门槛之后，还有漫漫长路要走。目前，高收入门槛是人均国民总收入1.26万美元，而美国已达5.5万美元，卢森堡超过 11万美元，跨度很大。对我国来说，在跨越“中等收入陷阱”后，下一个目标是迈向“中等发达国家”。中等发达国家目标是上世纪80年代末邓小平同志谋划 “三步走”战略时首次提出的。用人均指标来描述，中等发达国家大约相当于2015年韩国所达到的人均国民总收入2.7万美元的水平。如果按照中等增长速 度，剔除价格因素，2035年前后我国人均国民总收入将达到2.6万—3.0万美元(2015年价格)。这是我国经济将经历的又一重要阶段，可以看作改革 开放以来经济发展的“第五阶段”，直接关系到能否顺利实现第二个百年奋斗目标和中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦。在跻身高收入经济体行列和迈向中等发达国家的道 路上，尽管将迎来更大的挑战，但只要坚定不移地走中国特色社会主义道路，就一定能够成功实现目标。从前述经济体的发展经验中，我们还可以得到如下三点启 示。

　　首先，从欧美发达国家所显示的经验可见：随着经济发展，创新驱动的重要性日益凸显，以要素驱动为主的增长必须转向以创新驱动为主的 增长。我国历来高度重视科技创新，每年对此投入巨大。进入高收入阶段后，推动创新需要依靠全社会的力量，创新驱动的效果要用能否提高全要素生产率来检验。 越是在高收入阶段，越需要提高创新对经济增长的贡献率。

　　其次，二战后两批进入高收入阶段经济体的重要经验分别是坚持对外开放和实行市场经济，而这两条正是过去30多年中国经济快速增长的基本经验。其中，前者是外部条件，后者是内部条件。进入高收入阶段后，这两条基本经验依然是驱动经济增长的两个轮子，缺一不可。

　　第三，在跨越“中等收入陷阱”、通往中等发达国家的道路上，要想更充分释放经济潜力、支撑经济可持续发展，就必须努力增强软实力。软实力属于“无形要 素”，在高收入阶段其重要性不亚于有形要素。增强软实力的途径主要是制度建设和文化建设，而这不是一朝一夕的事情，从现在起就应加倍重视，将其作为跻身中 等发达国家和实现第二个百年奋斗目标的重要基石。要通过不断推进制度创新和文化创新，使我国的软实力比硬实力还要强、还要硬。

　　(郑秉文 中国社会科学院中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心研究员、美国研究所所长)

　　来源:人民日报

责任编辑：刘德宾 SN222

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