Beijing Meteorological Bureau in response to "forecast no": accurate prediction difficult | | precision | Weather Bureau forecast weather forecast _ news

Beijing News Alerts (by Deng Qi) on June 13, a forecast in flood season in the biggest rainfall does not occur. Beijing Meteorological Bureau responded June 14, municipal meteorological station on the weather forecast, overall grasp a basic right, but forecast the city's average rainfall is greater than the actual precipitation, especially forecasting rainfall can occur during the evening rush hour traffic does not appear, the rainfall intensity around midnight was weaker than forecast.

City Meteorological Bureau said, mainly due to the low Vortex cold air South, resulting in weak convective development in Beijing, while cold air cutting off water vapor transport in the South channel, southerly thin warm conveyor level, resulting in convective precipitation weaker than forecast, rainfall occurred in the South of Beijing, Beijing Fangshan mountain, only local heavy rainfall.

Municipal Meteorological Bureau said the consultation process. According to the evolution of the weather situation, is expected to move East to the South of the vortex will be 13-14 to affect North China and Beijing. Careful analysis of the structure of weather systems and various elements of cases, municipal meteorological station on 12th at 17 o'clock release weather forecasts: expected 13th afternoon a convective precipitation comes into the night, with an average rainfall of moderate to heavy rain, heavy rain may occur mainly before and after periods of rainfall on the evening of 13th to the middle of the night.

In response to the rain, 13th in Beijing Municipal meteorological station and meteorological departments, universities and other experts, national meteorological center, Hebei province, Tianjin Municipal meteorological observatory conducted a special consultation, form a consistent consultation, namely maintaining municipal meteorological station forecast conclusion of 12th, at 17 o'clock.

Weather conditions shows that influence eastwards South of vortex, 13th, from daytime to night has intermittent thunderstorms all over the weather in Beijing, cumulative rainfall in most parts of the rain, rain, Fangshan local rainstorms. Overall, the rainfall, convective activity in Beijing is weak, more gentle rain.

Municipal Meteorological Bureau said that accurate precipitation forecasting is the biggest problem of science and technology in the weather forecast, current technology cannot yet be fully predicted. Beijing's Meteorological Department will continue to strengthen research, efforts to improve the prediction.

Responsible editor: Zhang Chun SN182

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Accurate forecasting the met Office weather forecast for Beijing

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北京气象局回应“预报不准”：精准预报是难题|气象局|精准预报|天气预报_新闻资讯

　　新京报快讯(记者邓琦)6月13日，一场预报中的入汛以来最大降雨并未出现。北京市气象局6月14日回应称，北京市气象台对这次天气过程的预报，总体把握基本正确，但是预报的全市平均降水量比实际降水量略偏大，特别是预报晚高峰期间可能出现降雨影响交通的情况并没有出现，午夜前后的降雨强度也比预报的更弱。

　　市气象局表示，主要原因是由于低涡底部冷空气主体偏南，导致北京地区对流发展偏弱，同时南部冷空气切断了相应水汽输送通道，偏南暖湿输送层次偏薄，造成对流降水强度比预估要弱，主降雨区出现在北京以南，北京仅在房山山区出现了局地暴雨。

　　市气象局透露了具体的会商过程。当时根据天气形势演变分析，预计东移南下的低涡将于13-14日影响华北及北京地区。在仔细分析天气系统结构演变和各种要素配置的情况下，北京市气象台于12日17时发布天气预报：预计13日午后至夜间北京将出现一次对流降水天气过程，平均雨量为中到大雨，局地可能出现暴雨，主要降雨时段在13日傍晚到半夜前后。

　　针对这次降雨天气过程，13日上午北京市气象台与在京部队气象部门、高校等各方专家、中央气象台、河北省、天津市气象台进行了专题会商，形成了比较一致的会商意见，即维持北京市气象台12日17时的预报结论。

　　天气实况表明，受东移南下的低涡影响，13日白天到夜间北京各地先后出现间歇性雷阵雨天气，大部分地区累计降雨量达中雨，局地大雨，房山局地出现暴雨。总体而言，这次降雨过程，北京地区的对流活动较弱，雨势较平缓。

　　市气象局称，精准的降水预报是天气预报中最大的科学技术难题，目前的科学技术水平还无法做到完全可以预报。北京气象部门将不断加强研究，努力提高预报水平。

责任编辑：张淳 SN182

文章关键词：
气象局 精准预报 天气预报 北京

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