Tencent's $ 8.6 billion acquisition of Supercell worth? Scenery also has worries behind-Supercell, Tencent games, Royal wars, tribal wars-IT information
Supercell gossip spread starting from late last year, many Chinese firms are actively involved, but in the end it is the whispering of Tencent.
Today, the company said in a statement, Finland Supercell hand Developer after consultation 84.3% stake in Tencent to form a consortium to buy Supercell, which divided into three periods, the total amount is estimated at $ 8.6 billion.
Tencent's $ 8.6 billion mean? Shanghai Disneyland cost $ 5.5 billion, 360 ultimate privatization agreement could be nearly $ 9 billion, Reagan aircraft carrier cost $ 4.5 billion, North Korea's military spending was US $ 4 billion annually. Under the deal, Supercell as a 6-year, released only four games of the tour company, has been valued at $ 10.2 billion. End of tour companies Activision value only $ 28.9 billion.
So here's the thing, buy price of Supercell,86 billion and 10.2 billion dollar valuation values? Tencent why loans to buy Supercell? Is it true that the deal is only good side?
Monthly income of $ 194 million
84.3% stake in Tencent's $ 8.6 billion acquisition of Supercell, not only set one of China's largest overseas acquisition records, is also the world's biggest tour deals.
Hand field acquisitions largest tour company, Activision Blizzard hit. November 2015 Blizzard developers of the $ 5.9 billion acquisition of the legend of candy King Digital Entertainment. King Digital Entertainment at the annual profits of $ 517 million and revenue to $ 2 billion, and the 2015 up to 474 million monthly active users.
King of Digital Entertainment as a reference, Supercell2015 annual revenue US $ 2.326 billion, net income of $ 964 million, according to the Supercell said, has now reached 100 million active users of its games. Two revenue for the full year, but the valuation difference nearly twice times, disparity lies in where?
First, because the income, but Supercell2015 year of profit is King nearly twice times of Digital Entertainment.
Second, Blizzard acquired King while Digital Entertainment, King Digital Entertainment has begun weakening. 2015 than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and profits for the year, revenues and trading volumes have declined, dropped in and 10%, and 10%. While Supercell2015 still maintain growth, revenue and profit growth of 37% and 63%, respectively.
Third, King Digital Entertainment and not to hard to replicate previous success, single, over-reliance on the legend of the candy problem. But Supercell released almost all of the four games was a huge success, especially after the tribal conflict, 2016 's new collection, again in the Royal war PA bestseller list from around the world, and the average monthly income is around $ 100 million, proved that he could continue to make global super s-class product capabilities.
Four, King Digital Entertainment has a 1400-person team. Supercell has only 190 people, lower-cost, more efficient.
Tencent hand in three game tour revenue 72%
The Royal war published in January 2016, say 2015 revenue 2.326 billion dollars, net income of $ 964 million, is actually made up of the tribal conflicts, and the island Raiders and three games created by the cartoon farm, known as the "mad money" much at all.
And port tours compared giant Activision Blizzard and Tencent hand, Supercell victory condition.
2015 Blizzard's revenue of $ 4.66 billion, net income of $ 892 million. Supercell in 2015, half of the revenue for Blizzard, but profit is more than a Blizzard. And products from the time, Supercell only 6 years, Blizzard has 25 years of history. Supercell just four games, while the Blizzard world of Warcraft, StarCraft, and Diablo series pioneer, furnace and watch games such as rock legends.
And the buyer company compared to 2015 Tencent hand income of 21.3 billion yuan, Supercell, with three games accounted for 72% of Tencent's revenue. Due in 2015, Tencent has modified the revenue rule, exclusive mobile game developer revenue share with third parties, and channel costs are recognized as revenue costs, excluding this part, this ratio is even larger.
According to the company's purchase price, Supercell is valued at $ 10.2 billion. Comparing Chinese game company typically valuations and 10.2 billion dollars is definitely not a more expensive deal.
Price/earnings ratio, according to the net profit projection of Supercell PE values is 10.6, universal PE in the international capital market for the gaming company valuations, in the normal high standards. At the international level, basic to the game company PE valuation will not be more than 10. Which is often given to 30-40 times, or even more than a hundredfold valuations.
Tencent needs Supercell in addition to games and social
Before the Tencent, said Ali and the giant Union had also once very close to the Supercell. But Tencent joined prices increasing to $ 8.6 billion, finally forced back by Ali and Giants. Tencent is also higher than the London interbank offered rate of 102 basis points lending rates to over 20 $ 4.4 billion of bank loans.
For Tencent, buy Supercell potential, not just the Supercell Tencent can bring immediate benefits, the game's development, but also about globalization and social strategies.
According to the Supercell's revenue and profits, acquisitions and table, instantly see the effect is that surging revenues, profits and cash flow.
From the layout of the games, Tencent hand overseas distribution mainly in Korea and Southeast Asia, the layout is relatively weak in Europe and America. Supercell Tencent's international expansion and international brand strategy are complementary. In hand travel market more and more towards quality and trend of severe, Supercell excellent Games team and product, Tencent innovations product line is also very significant in the future.
In addition to games, Supercell 100 million active users of its games, 250 million within the game community and global markets, may be a rare breakthrough for Tencent's social business.
Tencent's mobile QQ, app platform users in slowing domestic growth, on the other hand, micro-letter on the go, while spending was huge, but the results are not satisfactory, even compete in the Asian region can and Line, WhatsApp.
Supercell has made it clear that the future will explore the social games played with Tencent, micro-account access letter Q or hands can be expected. For the promotion of social tools, relationships are very important, and import the original user through the game, the import way more convenient than before.
Why Supercell see Tencent?
Softbank holds Supercell73.2% shares, but the rest of the shares are in the hands of Supercell management personnel and the hands of 180 employees and Supercell operates independently, the team itself has a great degree of freedom and the right to decide. So the takeover, Supercell team opinions are also very important.
Supercell CEO Ilkka Paananen the company about what they value most is the long term development. Last choice of Tencent, Tencent is Supercell can make important leaps.
"First of all, according to the agreement, after the acquisition is completed, Supercell will still operate independently, remain small and independent of team culture. China is the world's largest number of players of the game. Tencent's platform over the user of more than 1 billion people, separate non-repeating more than 300 million users, but also by Tencent's social networking platform, exploring more social game. "
Ilkka Paananen Martin LAU, Tencent's passion for games, and Tencent company previously has acquired his fists (Riot Games) experience Supercell value.
4th is Tencent Supercell can continue to maintain private identity, does not need to be listed, are not required for short-term interests and under pressure from the financial sector.
I am afraid that the four other Chinese companies are competing for Supercell lost when important reasons. Apart from the few Internet and gaming companies can take out the $ 8.6 billion, Baidu and Ali can come up with the money, no experience in game development and distribution. While other game companies, not only easily see short term benefits, but also difficult to guarantee that independence.
Behind the scenery hidden problems
Buy Supercell prospects seem rosy, but good also have worries.
Ilkka Paananen after acquisition suggests that he thought cooperation with Tencent, and all listed companies can bring to the team's strengths, employees in the future in accordance with the wishes of the Supercell Supercell sell shares (all).
Below the 10.2 billion dollar valuations, Supercell has reached the appropriate exit. For any company, which are more vulnerable when employees cashed out, Supercell, is more dangerous, the company only 190 employees, exits are at greater risk for the team.
In addition, the tour company of unstable tend to hand, it is easy to bust. Zynga and Rovio are any guide, due to not being able to continue, or repeat the phenomenal success, market capitalisation dropped by 80%.
Supercell and then a product of the Royal war broke the spell, but compared to the tribal wars, the Royal war faces serious loss of product users, the problem of short life cycle. For about two years to have the rhythm of a product, and corporate risk in a high State.
And Tencent run risks, Tencent invested before many of the overseas companies are faced with the difficult new quality games, Supercell was the exception is worthy of observation.
腾讯86亿美元收购Supercell值不值？ 风光背后也有隐忧 - Supercell,
腾讯游戏,皇室战争,部落战争 - IT资讯
从去年年底开始Supercell的绯闻就四处传播，不少中国公司积极介入，但是最终还是花落腾讯。
今日，腾讯发布公告称，经与芬兰手游开发商Supercell协商后，腾讯组建的财团将收购Supercell 84.3%的股权，该交易分三期支付，总金额预计为86亿美元。
腾讯的86亿美元意味着什么？上海迪斯尼造价55亿美元，360最终私有化协议可能是近90亿美元，里根号航母造价45亿美元，朝鲜军费曾经是年均40亿美元。根据这次收购，Supercell作为一个成立6年、仅发布了四款游戏的手游公司，已经估值102亿美元。而端游大厂动视暴雪市值只有289亿美元。
那么问题来了，买Supercell，86亿的价钱和102亿美元估值值吗？腾讯为什么贷款也要买Supercell？这笔交易是否真的就是只有美好的一面呢？
每月收入1.94亿美元
腾讯以86亿美元收购Supercell 84.3%的股权，不仅创下了中国海外最大的一笔收购记录，同样也是全球范围内最大的一笔手游收购案。
此前手游领域收购金额最大的一笔手游公司收购，由动视暴雪创下。2015年11月暴雪以59亿美元收购《糖果传奇》开发商King Digital Entertainment。King Digital Entertainment当时全年利润为5.17亿美元，收入为20亿美元，而且2015年月活跃用户人数达到4.74亿。
以King Digital Entertainment为参照物，Supercell2015年营收23.26亿美元，净利润9.64亿美元，据Supercell透露，旗下游戏的日活跃用户目前已经达到1亿。两家全年的营收差不多，但是估值却差了近两倍，差距主要在哪里？
一、因为收入差不多，但是Supercell2015年的利润却是King Digital Entertainment的近2倍。
二、暴雪收购King Digital Entertainment时，King Digital Entertainment已经开始疲软。2015年第四季度盈利不及预期，而且全年利润、收入和交易额均出现下滑，下降幅度在10%、12%和10%。而Supercell2015年依旧保持增长，收入和利润分别同比增长37%和63%。
三、King Digital Entertainment并没有能够难以复制前作的成功，存在产品单一，过渡依赖《糖果传奇》的问题。而此时Supercell发布的四款游戏几乎都大获成功，尤其是《部落冲突》之后，2016年的新作《皇室战争》再次在全球各大畅销榜霸榜，并且月均收入都在1亿美元左右，证明了自己能够持续制作全球超S级产品的能力。
四、King Digital Entertainment拥有1400人团队。Supercell却仅有190个人，成本更低，效率更高。
三款游戏就占腾讯手游营收72%
《皇室战争》发布于2016年1月，也就是说2015年营收23.26亿美元，净利润9.64亿美元，其实是由《部落冲突》、《海岛奇兵》和《卡通农场》三款游戏创造的，称之为“疯狂的赚钱机器”丝毫不过分。
和端游巨头动视暴雪和腾讯手游业务相比，Supercell也是完胜的状态。
2015年暴雪营收为46.6亿美元，净利润为8.92亿美元。Supercell在2015年的营收为暴雪的一半，但利润却超过了暴雪。从时间和产品来看，Supercell仅成立6年，而暴雪已经有25年历史。Supercell只有四款游戏，而暴雪却有魔兽、星际争霸、暗黑破坏神系列和守望先锋、炉石传说等多款游戏。
和买方的腾讯相比，2015年腾讯手游的收入为213亿元，Supercell凭借三款游戏就占到了腾讯近72%的收入。由于2015年，腾讯修改了收入计算规则，将独家代理的手机游戏与第三方开发商的收入分成，以及渠道成本确认为收入成本项，如果扣除这部分，这个比例恐怕更大。
按照腾讯的收购价，Supercell目前的估值为102亿美元。对比中国游戏公司的通常估值水平，102亿美元绝对不是一笔贵的交易。
以市盈率来看，根据净利润推算Supercell的PE值为10.6，在国际资本市场对于游戏公司的普遍PE估值水平来看，处于正常偏高的水平。此前在国际上，基本给游戏公司PE估值都不会超过10。而国内却常常给到30-40倍，甚至百倍以上的估值。
腾讯需要Supercell除了游戏还有社交
在腾讯之前，有消息称，阿里和巨人联盟曾经也一度非常接近Supercell。但是腾讯的加入，把价钱不断提高到86亿美元，最后逼退了阿里和巨人。腾讯也为此以较伦敦银行间同业拆借利率高102个基点的贷款利率，向超20家银行贷款了44亿美元。
对于腾讯而言，收购Supercell势在必得，不仅仅是Supercell能给腾讯带来即时的收益，游戏的发展，还关乎全球化战略和社交战略。
按照Supercell的营收和利润，收购并表之后，立刻就能看到效果的就是，收入、利润和现金流飙升。
从游戏的布局来看，腾讯手游的海外布局主要是在韩国和东南亚，欧美市场布局相对薄弱。Supercell对腾讯的国际化扩张和国际品牌战略而言，极为互补。另外在手游市场越来越走向精品化和重度化的趋势下，Supercell优秀的游戏团队和产品，对腾讯未来产品线创新的意义也非常重大。
除了游戏之外，Supercell旗下游戏的1亿日活跃用户，2.5亿个游戏内社区和全球市场，对于腾讯的社交业务可能也是难得的突破点。
腾讯的手机QQ、微信平台用户在国内的增长速度不断放缓，另一方面，微信在走出去上，虽然投入巨大，但效果却不尽如人意，即便是在亚洲地区都难以和Line、WhatsApp抗衡。
Supercell已经明确表示未来将和腾讯一起探讨游戏的社交玩法，那么微信或者手Q的账号接入也是可以预计的。对于社交工具的推广而言，关系圈是非常重要的，通过游戏导入原始用户，较比之前的导入方式更为便利。
为什么Supercell看中了腾讯？
虽然软银持有Supercell73.2%的股份，但是剩下的股份都握在Supercell管理人员和180名员工的手中，而且Supercell是独立运营，团队本身拥有很大的自由度和决定权。所以这场收购中，Supercell团队的意见也非常重要。
Supercell公司CEO Ilkka Paananen谈到他们最看重的是长远发展。最后选择腾讯，是觉得腾讯可以让Supercell取得重要的跳跃式发展。
”首先，根据协议，在收购完成后，Supercell仍将独立运营，依旧保持小而独立的团队文化。其次中国的游戏玩家数是全球最多的。腾讯的平台覆盖用户量超过10亿人，单独非重复用户超过3亿，而且可以通过腾讯社交平台，探索更多的社交玩法”。
Ilkka Paananen觉得腾讯总裁刘炽平对于游戏的热情，以及腾讯此前有过的收购拳头公司（Riot Games）的经验也是Supercell看重的。
第四点就是腾讯保证Supercell可以继续维持私营身份，不需要上市，也不需要为了短期利益而受到来自金融方面的压力。
恐怕这四点也是其他中国公司在争夺Supercell时落败的重要原因。除了很少有互联网和游戏公司能拿出来86亿美元外，能拿出钱的百度和阿里，没有游戏研发和发行的经验。而其他游戏公司，不但容易只看到短期利益，而且也很难保证独立性。
风光背后有隐忧
虽然收购Supercell看起来前景似乎一片美好，但是美好之下也有隐忧。
从Ilkka Paananen在收购之后的发言来看，他觉得与腾讯的合作，可以给团队带来所有上市公司拥有的优势，Supercell的员工可以在未来按照意愿卖掉手中的Supercell股份（所有人都有股份）。
在102亿美元高估值之下，Supercell其实已经到了比较合适的退出时机。对于任何公司而言，这种时候都比较容易遇到员工的套现退出，对于Supercell而言，比较危险的是，这家公司只有190个员工，退出对于团队的风险更大。
另外，手游公司的成绩一般都不稳定，很容易大起大落。Zynga和Rovio都是前车之鉴，由于无法延续或重复现象级产品的成功，市值最高下降了80%。
虽然Supercell以又一部现象级产品《皇室战争》打破了魔咒，但是和《部落战争》相比，《皇室战争》却面临产品用户流失严重，生命周期短的问题。而两年左右才有一款产品的节奏，也让公司的风险处于高企的状态。
和腾讯的磨合也是风险所在，腾讯之前投资的不少海外公司都面临着再难出新精品游戏的情况，Supercell能否是例外也值得观察。