Expert: China expected to to l-form growth across the middle stage

CAI Fang, Vice President of Chinese Academy of social sciences. Beijing, Xinhua Li Jinlei photography
CNS, Beijing, June 23 (reporter Li Jinlei)-Deputy CAI Fang, President of the Chinese Academy of social sciences in Beijing on 23rd, l-forms of China is expected to grow across the middle phase, is expected in 2022 across high income threshold, more power is needed in the coming years to improve income distribution, makes people feel more access.
On June 23, by Peking University's National School of development and co-sponsored by the social sciences academic press under the background of the global book launch held in Beijing of China's economic transformation. CAI made entitled ' how to achieve high growth in the l ' speech.
"Now China's economic slowdown in the first big problem is encountered, all other questions are derived from the, what caused the slowdown, need for scientific analysis and awareness. "CAI Fang, said that recently some international judgement on China's economic growth, overall the empirical research illustrates some rules, but there is a" forest, not trees "defects, given China's unusual" tree "research is not enough.
CAI Fang, China cannot ignore a country is "old before it gets rich" phase changes of aging and population more than in many other countries, demographic dividend in phase with lower per capita GDP than lose, drop in China's potential growth rate.
CAI said that according to estimates, the potential growth rate by 2010 is 10%, "Twelve-Five" period to 7.6%, "Thirteen-Five" period will be reduced to 6.2%.
In particular, the analysis of CAI, labour shortages led to rapid rise in wages, wages grew faster than productivity rate, comparative advantages and competitiveness will drop; labor significantly reduces new growth, human capital improvement slowed, capital of diminishing marginal phenomenon, decline in return on investments, efficiency of resource distribution space.
CAI said that factors leading to reduced economic growth cannot be resolved by stimulating, achieve an l-shaped growth, depends on advancing the supply side structural reform. Supply side structural reform can bring dividends, the dividend is slow potential growth rate of decline, in the potential growth rate of the original reform case level to increase the number of percentage points.
"The supply side through reforms in the areas of structural reform, increased labour force participation rates, the level of human capital and total factor productivity, fertility, reduce costs, thereby enhancing the potential growth rate. "Mr CAI said.

Site map.
Prospects for development, Mr CAI believes that China is expected to stage of l-form growth across the middle. "2014 China's per capita GDP is us $ 7400, belong to the middle income phase, according to potential growth and constant prices in 2022, the per capita GDP will reach us $ 12,600, this is the current definition of middle income by the World Bank development stage and the threshold for the high income development stage. ”
However, CAI told Xinhua Beijing, reporters remind 2022 was expected to cross the threshold in high income countries, is still not particularly high levels of income. Also see, according to the international lessons in some countries, even beyond the high income threshold, if you encounter difficulties in the future, economic policy errors may also be returned to, the need to guard against.
"Want to ensure economic growth in the next six or seven years at the same time, with more power to improve income distribution, improve incomes and makes everyone feel more access. "Mr CAI said.
(Editors: Zhong Qinghui UN660)
2016-06-23 22:42:20
China News Network

专家：中国有望以L型增长跨越中等收入阶段

中国社会科学院副院长蔡昉。中新网记者 李金磊 摄
　　中新网北京6月23日电  (记者 李金磊)中国社会科学院副院长蔡昉23日在北京表示，中国有望以L型增长跨越中等收入阶段，预计2022年将跨越高收入门槛，未来几年需要用更多的力量改善收入分配，让民众有更多的获得感。
　　6月23日，由北京大学国家发展研究院和社会科学文献出版社共同主办的《全球背景下的中国经济转型》新书发布会在北京举行。蔡昉在会上作了题为《如何实现L型中高速增长》的演讲。
　　“现在中国经济遇到的第一大问题就是增长减速，所有其他问题都是衍生出来的，什么原因造成的经济减速，需要科学分析和清醒认识。”蔡昉说，最近国际上有一些对中国经济增长速度的判断，总的来说这些经验研究说明了一些规律，但都存在“只见森林，不见树木”的缺陷，对中国这特定的不同寻常的“大树”研究得还不够。
　　在蔡昉看来，不能忽略的一个国情是中国“未富先老”，老龄化发展和人口阶段转变超过其他很多国家，人口红利在人均GDP比较低的阶段丧失，中国潜在增长率下降。
　　蔡昉表示，根据测算，潜在增长率在2010年之前为10%，“十二五”期间降到7.6%， “十三五”期间将下降为6.2%。
　　具体而言，蔡昉分析，劳动力短缺导致工资持续快速上涨，工资增速快于劳动生产率提高速度，比较优势和竞争力就会下降；新成长劳动力显著减少，人力资本改善速度减慢，资本边际报酬递减现象呈现，投资回报率下降，资源重配效率空间缩小。
　　蔡昉表示，导致经济增速降低的因素是不能靠刺激解决的，实现L型中高速增长，取决于推进供给侧结构性改革。供给侧结构性改革可以带来红利，这个红利就是减缓潜在增长率下降的速度，在原来不改革情况下的潜在增长率水平上增加若干百分点。
　　“供给侧结构性改革要通过各领域的改革，分别提高劳动参与率、人力资本水平、全要素生产率、生育率，降低企业成本，从而提高潜在增长率。”蔡昉说。

　　现场图。
　　对于发展前景，蔡昉认为，中国有望以L型增长跨越中等收入阶段。“2014年中国人均GDP是7400美元，属于中等偏上收入阶段，按照潜在增长率和不变的价格计算，2022年人均GDP将达到1.26万美元，这是当前世界银行所定义的中等偏上收入发展阶段和高收入发展阶段的门槛。”
　　不过，蔡昉在接受中新网记者提问时提醒，2022年只是有望跨越高收入国家的最低门槛，还是不特别高的收入水平。同时也要看到，按照国际上一些国家的教训，即使跨越了高收入门槛，如果未来遭遇困难，经济政策出现错误，也可能会退回来，这需要防范。
　　“希望未来六七年中能够保证经济增速的同时，用更多的力量改善收入分配，真正提高居民收入，让大家有更多的获得感。”蔡昉说。
(责任编辑：钟庆辉 UN660)
2016-06-23 22:42:20
中国新闻网