United Kingdom EU how serious the impact on China is | | EU United Kingdom exit _ news
Foregone conclusion! United Kingdom Europe back how serious is the impact on China?
Stay ahead of the fall as European, United Kingdom referendum results show that withdrawal from the EU is a foregone conclusion, the United Kingdom will soon become the first country to leave the EU.
United Kingdom back outside Europe since 2016 the height of Black Swans, deep impact will continue to ferment for the global market, which will become the European and global financial markets the biggest shock since the 2008 global financial tsunami.
Sterling fell against the dollar to 1.3327, 1679 depreciation basis points, more than 11%, is currently slightly. Had widely expected that once United Kingdom European success back, Sterling fell cent, pound appears to be progress toward that goal at the moment.
Worth noting is that today the RMB exchange rate in the pound, led largely by significantly lower.
Among them, the offshore RMB (CNH) depreciation against the dollar is close to 1%, up to 13:40, the offshore RMB (CNH) dollar 6.6430, fell by 615 basis points.
In the offshore market, the Yuan against the US dollar spot rate decline has reached 0.68%, 6.6224, large swings in recent days, fell 446 basis points compared with the previous trading day.
So, for now, United Kingdom Europe back for how serious the impact China?
Merchant Bank asset management Department said Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of business journalists, first, whether there will be need to focus on the international market liquidity dried up.
As the referendum result reversed the previous polls, global markets does not fully anticipated by the outcome, the panic rising, panic spread and volatility in the financial markets, could lead to short-term liquidity risk.
"If this is the case, be concerned about the possibility of derivatives pricing and deals were closed, which brings unexpected losses to domestic business entities and financial institutions, can refer to the 2008 financial crisis. "Liu Dongliang said.
Meanwhile, domestic financial markets under pressure. Short term, under the influence of European risk overflow, domestic financial markets will have a certain impact.
Liu Dongliang is expected to, overseas market hedge mood rose will prompted dollars, and Yen, and beauty debt rose, pounds, and euro, non-beauty currency devaluation, beauty refers to of rose will led to Yuan CFETS index and middle price faced passive devaluation pressure, short-term trend material partial weak, has fell to 6.65 even 6.68 of risk, but is expected to Bank not allows Yuan appeared fast devaluation, may will through middle price and admission intervention of way stable exchange rate.
For stock,, he is expected to shares, and Hong Kong stocks will by overseas stock General fell of pessimistic mood led, is expected to faced Xia exploration pressure, especially Hong Kong stocks, due to Hong Kong and United Kingdom economic contact more close, Hong Kong stocks by of impact more directly and obviously, but is expected to this impact continued time not too long, and not excluded regulatory layer timing introduced good policy for hedge, while this external impact end Hou, may will for intervention stock provides better of time window.
Because of market concerns about foreign and domestic economic growth has increased, is expected to favour short-term performance in the bond market, bond trading opportunities.
"Medium-and long-term,, United Kingdom off Europe means with United Kingdom and EU Zhijian must for trade, and investment, and financial many field of agreement negotiations and policy heavy estimated, United Kingdom and EU must again for positioning, this on China economic will brings potential of adverse effect" Liu Dongliang said, if United Kingdom off Europe led to EU appeared new a round recession or pessimistic expected, material will through trade and investment chain conduction to China, and EU for China first big trade partners, China foreign trade by of effect will especially, to increased years economic down pressure.
However, it's not all bad news, United Kingdom exit could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep watch, US dollar interest rates point to defer, it will help reduce the currency medium-term pressure of devaluation and capital flight.
Responsible editor: Chen yan SN225
Article keywords:European Union United Kingdom took off in Europe
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英国退出欧盟对中国冲击有多严重|欧盟|英国脱欧_新闻资讯
大局已定！英国退欧对中国冲击有多严重？
随着退欧派的持续领先，英国公投结果显示退出欧盟已成定局，英国也即将成为历史上第一个退出欧盟的国家。
英国以外退欧这一2016年至今最大的黑天鹅事件，对于全球市场的深度影响仍将持续发酵，这或将成为欧洲乃至全球金融市场自2008年全球金融海啸后遭遇的最大冲击。
英镑兑美元一度跌至1.3327，贬值1679个基点，幅度超过11%，目前略有回升。此前业内普遍预期，一旦英国退欧成功，英镑将下跌15-20%，眼下英镑似乎正朝着这一目标前进。
值得注意的是，今日人民币汇率在英镑的拉动下，也出现明显走低。
其中，离岸人民币（CNH）对美元贬值幅度已接近1%，截至13：40，离岸人民币（CNH）对美元报6.6430，下跌615个基点。
在岸市场，人民币对美元即期汇率跌幅也达到0.68%，报6.6224，成为近日较大波动幅度，较上一交易日下跌446个基点。
那么，从目前来看，英国退欧对于中国的冲击究竟有多严重？
招商银行资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮对第一财经记者表示，首先需要关注国际市场流动性是否会出现枯竭。
由于公投结果逆转了此前的民调，全球市场对这一结果并未做好充分预期，恐慌情绪急速上升，恐慌情绪的蔓延及金融市场的剧烈动荡，可能引发短暂的流动性风险。
“若出现这种情况，需关注是否会有衍生品的报价和交易出现停摆，从而给国内实体企业和金融机构带来意外损失，可以参考2008年金融海啸。”刘东亮说道。
与此同时，国内金融市场将承受压力。短期而言，受到欧洲风险溢出的影响，国内金融市场将受到一定冲击。
刘东亮预计，海外市场避险情绪上升将促使美元、日元、美债上涨，英镑、欧元等非美货币贬值，美指的上涨将导致人民币CFETS指数和中间价面临被动贬值压力，短期走势料偏弱，有跌向6.65甚至6.68的风险，但预计央行不会允许人民币出现快速贬值，可能会通过中间价和入场干预的方式稳定汇率。
对于股市而言，他预计A股、港股将受到海外股市普跌的悲观情绪带动，预计面临下探压力，特别是港股，由于香港与英国经济联系更为紧密，港股受到的冲击更为直接和明显，但预计这种冲击持续时间不会太久，且不排除监管层择机出台利好政策进行对冲，同时这种外部冲击结束后，可能会为介入股市提供更好的时间窗口。
由于市场对于海外和国内经济增长的担忧有所上升，预计将有利于债市短期表现，长债有交易性机会。
“中长期而言，英国脱欧意味着英国与欧盟之间必须进行贸易、投资、金融诸多领域的协议谈判和政策重估，英国与欧盟必须重新进行定位，这对中国经济将带来潜在的不利影响”刘东亮说道，假如英国脱欧导致欧盟出现新一轮衰退或悲观预期，料将通过贸易和投资链条传导至中国，而欧盟为中国第一大贸易伙伴，中国外贸受到的影响将尤甚，从而加大年内经济下行压力。
然而，也并非全是坏消息，英国脱欧可能促使美联储保持观望，美元加息时点料推迟，这反而有利于减轻人民币中期贬值和资本外流压力。
责任编辑：陈琰 SN225
文章关键词： 欧盟 英国脱欧
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