B read the United Kingdom out of the EU process: not so simple-out of the EU, United Kingdom-IT information

United Kingdom Ou Gong back vote results, although European win back, but the process of withdrawal from the EU is far more complicated than imagined. Political and economic instability could lead to a second referendum, United Kingdom ultimately remain in the EU.

From the theoretical point of view, after the referendum, exit the process seems to be rather simple, Credit Suisse in a previous report are summarized as follows:

United Kingdom preliminary consultations with the EU, followed by United Kingdom Prime Minister to the President of the European Council sent a letter to express United Kingdom want EU Treaty 50th article to discuss idea of withdrawal from the EU.

Two years later, the United Kingdom will automatically leave the EU, unless the other 27 countries of the European Union unanimously agreed to extend the talks. If this is the case, then negotiations will continue up to the end, then United Kingdom out of the EU.

Specific procedures are as follows:

However, the fact is not so simple. Credit Suisse said that after the referendum is over the potential for political and economic turmoil will trigger a series of events that will disrupt the process.

Credit Suisse believes that there are two major factors that increase the complexity of Europe back:

First, if the result is SW back slightly ahead of the referendum, then the United Kingdom Government at the Executive retreat-Europe programme, will be resisted by Parliament, especially if Europe leads United Kingdom cannot easily enter the EU's single market.

Second, in the course of negotiations after the vote, if the United Kingdom's ties with the EU appears uncertain, United Kingdom into recession, it will lead to United Kingdom public support again in Europe.

Credit Suisse had previously reported that if Europe leads in a referendum following a massive economic turmoil does not appear, then the process of withdrawal from the EU will be relatively smooth. However, if European victory, or United Kingdom economic recession lead to reverse public opinion, might deter the United Kingdom eventually in the European Union.

This complex process is as follows:

Credit Suisse also said that from the above rough estimates that, even if the United Kingdom referendum results are out, so the possibility of eventual successful exit for 70%.

二图看懂英国脱离欧盟流程：没那么简单 - 脱离欧盟,英国 - IT资讯

英国退欧公投结果出炉，尽管退欧派获胜，但退出欧盟的过程要远比想象的复杂。政治和经济动荡很有可能引发第二次公投，令英国最终仍然留在欧盟。

从理论上看，在公投之后，退出的过程似乎相当简单，瑞信在此前的一份报告中总结如下：

英国与欧盟将进行初步磋商，随后英国首相向欧洲理事会主席致信，表达英国希望基于欧盟条约第50项条款商谈退出欧盟的想法。

两年之后，英国会自动退出欧盟，除非欧盟其他27国一致同意延长谈判。如果出现这种情况，那么谈判会延续到结束为止，之后英国退出欧盟。

具体流程如下：

但是，实际情况却不可能这么简单。瑞信称，在公投结束后可能出现的政治和经济动荡，将会引发一系列会打乱这个过程的事件。

瑞信认为，有两大因素会增加退欧过程的复杂性：

第一，如果公投结果是退欧派以微弱优势领先，那么英国政府在执行退欧计划时，会遭到议会的抵制，尤其是如果退欧导致英国不能再那么轻易进入欧盟这一单一市场。

第二，在公投之后的谈判过程中，如果英国与欧盟的关系出现不确定性、英国陷入衰退，则又会导致英国民众重新支持留欧。

瑞信此前报告称，如果退欧派在公投中大幅领先，随后也不出现大规模经济动荡，那么退出欧盟的过程会相对顺利。但是，如果退欧派险胜，或者英国经济出现衰退，导致民众意见出现反转，都可能令英国最终留在欧盟。

这一复杂的过程如下：

瑞信还称，从上图进行粗略估计得出，即便英国公投结果是退出欧盟，那么最终成功退出的可能性为70%。