Lei takes 15 years to prove the value of millet: the long haul-Lei, millet, IPO-IT information

In 2016, the summer Davos Forum, well-known finance red Xiaobo Wu seemingly has no intention of actually "millet when" bomb throwing Lei, Lei had "not listed within five years" the objective, but still cannot stop the public want to know more "hidden secret" curiosity.

Then, Lei delivered, said "in fact, millet patterns from founder knew that takes 15 years", Lei did not apparently Steve's reality distortion field, and a draught of pig theory 15, "mode" not some mysterious feeling. Even 15th century Seer Nostradamus predicted France revolution, but is unable to accurately predict the time of occurrence. Because the former is based on a practitioner's professional knowledge, while the latter is more like illogical God stick metaphysical theory.

Is the so-called bold assumptions, evaluate carefully, we might as well study on financing of the millet as a starting point, Lei so-called 2025 plans discussed in the end is a fool or a realistic background as support logic.

Millet since inception, conducted a total of six rounds of financing, which completed last December 2014 millet $ 1.1 billion in financing. That same month, millet technological spent 1.266 billion stake in the US group, but also because of the financial situation of the investment we have a glimpse of xiaomi: 2013 millet revenue about 26.583 billion yuan, about 347 million yuan in net profit, profit margin is only 1.8%!

But then the Wall Street Journal reported that, according to the millet for a loan document contents,2013 millet company net profit to 3.46 billion yuan, and data released by the United States risked while data released then millet said the United States is only millet millet group technology, and do not represent the whole group, millet 2013 annual revenues of 32.6 billion yuan. Then at least you can prove is: millet 2013 year of net profit is absolutely more than 347 million Yuan, but phones are profit margins .

Millet is already profitable, then melted huge motivation is worth consideration. First of all, 70% phone channels, and hunger marketing makes it unlikely channel inventory backlog. Secondly, the phone of demand to ensure a good digestion and procurement of mobile phone components. Overall, the millet are already profitable, and the inventory turnover ratio is very high, show that it has a good liquidity, their own business does not require substantial additional funding.

To allow millet where big money is called the ecological chain of investment, such as shares of American rice, investment China Science and technology (millet bracelet), purple rice technology (power) more than more than 50 millet chain enterprises can be predicted is in millet's thirst for large amounts of money, overseas investment accounted for a large chunk of. Has strong demand for funds in the strategic layout of millet's case, that 2015 is the best time to stock it?

Obviously not, because in 2015, the bottleneck of the entire mobile phone industry is in a slowdown, while market research agencies have substantially lower growth in global mobile phone sales, and market research agency Gartner says 2016 global mobile phone market will continue to be sluggish, 2016 global mobile phone sales are expected to drop to 7%, compared to 2015 is 14.4%. Environment, millet, without an exception, so the purpose is listing hard to get financing in the long term, the mobile phone industry is difficult to pick up, short-term the possibility is very low .

Not listed in the short term, 2015 millet were heard again fail to raise money, how to raise large sums of money for strategic investment? Millet launched "m financing service", namely, Internet equity raising way of conducting strategic planning, to achieve the effect of one or two ounces.

In addition, I Lei called "15 years justify millet model" very curious, why not 10, 20, and is 15? Only one can be found to prove that "15" is the primary source of Lei green company's annual meeting April 23, 2016, China entrepreneur Club speech, words like this:

In the United States lives of my fellow students, friends, I asked a few people, I say: you go to COSTCO? Most people answered, "I just went to COSTCO", was also said COSTCO did not sell I will go to other stores. Users become fans of all ... ... (Omitted here 10,000 words) took about 15 or 16 years to get the United States the trust of consumers, COSTCO last decade's business is booming.

As the Lei has been highly commended in retail businesses, COSTCO (Costco) for Millet's influence is reflected in every aspect, such as COSTCO focused on creating a single explosion, the combination of lower prices, procurement and private label brands, and so on, these millet can be found more or less. But on the core--membership in the COSTCO model, millet is in the right form and lost its spirit, as millet are missing is that there is a strong fan of sticky.

How to effectively improve the viscous fan? Upgrade viscous fan needs to improve the service experience in the first place, so as to establish brand loyalty, not millet fans known as the "price of loyalty". Second, improve stickiness is the most effective way to improve the user's replacement cost, both hardware costs and the cost .

This millet is now facing two major predicaments, offline channels open up and the explosions many copies, respectively, millet, ecological strategies of service .

1, and now, line Xia channel is was all phone manufacturers again attention up, early user for intelligent phone more care price, and with intelligent phone replacement tide, price is let is located in experience , such as phone of work, and material, and feel, and design and function experience Shang, these are need personally started to experience, and sale Qian guide can different user difference treats, upgrade has user of brand goodwill.

Secondly, with the advance of millet smart home ecosystem, through offline channels demo, to make the concept of intelligent hardware floor is all the more necessary, because the impact of the smart home is the natural way of life and philosophy, experience link is necessary.

2, since it is a smart home ecosystem, it necessarily requires a complete system of products covered . Smart home products linkage between millet was relatively isolated, fracture, among rare ecological advantages, such as millet IH rice cooker, kitchen utensils, eco-experience was in the kitchen of their faults, users still require a separate operation.

Offline channels and smart home ecosystem is obviously not accomplished overnight, in addition to the massive capital access, such as the location for offline channels, personnel training, decoration and the industrial chain layout, Smart Home technology incubation and so on, as well as training, take a long time before energy costs can form enough combat power.

In addition to the issues of financing, business model, millet's main business growth in trouble have in fact established, are major unfavourable international market and domestic market growth is slowing. As regards the analysis of the domestic market, there are many pearls of God first, and there is not a shortcoming.

Increment the global mobile phone market is Brazil, and India the Smartphone penetration is lower in developing countries, but millet cheap mode does not work in these countries, as millet is heavily dependent on Chinese characteristic--was very flourishing e-business, logistics systems and supply chain advantage.

Blend together and is flattened troubled, Internet e-commerce B2C model eliminates the middleman of the phone, that is, as much as possible to cut operating costs in the cost of goods, reduction ratio (ratio of price and cost of goods).

But these conditions were comparatively backward in infrastructure in Brazil and India are not available, as millet Vice President Hugo Bala said, Brazil logistics, tax burdens and high storage costs, making low price phone advantage is severely weakened, facing and other traditional channels of brand mobile phone costs.

This is millet patterns present another dilemma: a universal common pattern is not found . Millet mode is required to create a common framework, and according to India features, Brazil features such as localization. Of course, for higher gold content of the United States, Europe and other developed markets, siege of millet have, but did not land, across which is the issue of the patent, rather than a model.

As millet's main business phone support as well as its carrier of the core strategy, the level of sales will direct marketing of millet a series of strategic placement of final results, opinion, millet is the next step in how to maintain the existing stock of domestic cases products, brand personality; and foreign markets is how to copy millet patterns.

Taken together, the listing for a company mainly has two main functions: one is to raise huge amounts of money, and get a stable financing channels; the other is exit mechanisms for shareholder investor. But that prospect is based on enterprises with good performance, and under the premise of open market is very optimistic about its business model, it would be difficult to have a good valuation.

Therefore, millet listing does more harm than good in the short term, first of all, millet is still only a phone company, in the overall strategy has not yet been completed, all the speculation about its valuation does not reflect its maximum value, secondly, Internet equity raising way relieve the financial pressures of millet by strategic investment, meant listing its appeal is greatly reduced.

Of course, Lei was dare to shout out 15 years listed, actually proves from the side of venture capital, after all, long haul, profit maximization is their ultimate goal .

雷军要用15年证明小米的价值：放长线钓大鱼 - 雷军,小米,IPO - IT资讯

在2016年夏季达沃斯论坛上，知名财经网红吴晓波看似无意实则有心的将“小米何时上市”的炸弹抛向了雷军，虽然雷军曾有“五年内不上市”的前言，但仍旧无法阻挡大众想要知道更多“隐秘内情”的好奇心。

于是，雷军不负众望，表示“其实从小米模式创办开始就知道需要15年时间”，显然雷军并没有乔布斯的现实扭曲力场，和风口上的猪理论一样，“15年自证模式”不免有些故弄玄虚之感。即便是15世纪的大预言家诺查丹玛斯可以预言法国大革命，但却无法准确预测其发生时间。因为前者是基于从业者的职业素养，而后者更像是毫无逻辑的神棍玄学论。

正所谓大胆假设小心求证，我们不妨以小米的融资作为研究的起点，讨论雷军所谓的2025年上市计划到底是忽悠还是有现实背景作为支撑的逻辑。

小米自创立伊始，共进行了六轮融资活动，其中2014年12月小米完成了最后一笔11亿美元的融资。同月，小米科技同时斥资12.66亿元入股美的集团，也因为这次投资我们得以一窥小米科技的财务状况：2013年小米营收约为265.83亿元，净利润约为3.47亿元，利润率仅为1.8%！

但随后《华尔街日报》称，根据得到的一份小米申请贷款文件内容，2013年小米公司净利为34.6亿元，和美的公布的数据严重不符；而随即小米表示美的公布的数据仅是小米集团旗下的小米科技，并不能代表整个集团，小米2013年的总营收是326亿元。那么至少可以证明的是：小米2013年的净利绝对不仅仅是3.47亿元，不过手机确实利润微薄。

既然小米本身已经实现盈利，那么再融巨额资金动机就值得考量。首先，70%的小米手机走电商渠道，并且饥饿营销模式使得其不太可能出现渠道库存积压问题。其次，小米手机的供不应求保证了能够很好的消化采购的手机元器件。整体而言，小米本身已经盈利，并且库存周转率很高，表明其有着相当良好的资金流动性，本身业务上并不需要大笔额外融资。

那么，能够让小米大手笔撒钱的地方当属所谓生态链的投资了，譬如入股美的、投资华米科技（小米手环）、紫米科技（移动电源）等50多小米生态链家企业而，可以预测到的是小米对于大额资金的渴求中，对外投资占据了很大一块。在小米战略布局有着很强的资金需求的情况下，那2015年是不是上市融资的最好时机呢？

显然不是，因为在2015年，整个手机行业陷入了增长放缓的瓶颈，而市场调研机构纷纷大幅调低了全球手机销量增速，并且市调机构Gartner表示，2016年全球手机市场将继续低迷，预计2016年全球手机销量增速将下滑至7%，相比2015年为14.4%。大环境使然，小米必无独善其身之理，所以即便是上市也很难达到融资目的，长期来看，手机行业很难回暖，短期上市的可能性就非常低。

短期内无法上市，又曾传出小米2015年融资失败，如何筹措大笔资金进行战略投资呢？于是小米上线了“米筹金服”，即以互联网股权众筹的方式来进行战略布局，以达到一两拨千斤的效果。

此外，我对于雷军所谓的“用15年证明小米模式”非常好奇，为什么不是10年、20年，而偏偏是15年呢？唯一能够找到能够证明这个关于“15年”的出处是雷军2016年4月23日在中国企业家俱乐部绿公司年会上的演讲，原话是这样的：

在美国生活的我的那些同学、朋友，我问了几个人，我说你们去COSTCO吗？大部分人回答说“我只去COSTCO”，还有人回答说COSTCO没有卖的我再去别的商店。把所有的用户都变成了粉丝......（此处省略一万字）大概用了15、16年时间获得了美国消费者的信赖，COSTCO最近十年的经营是蒸蒸日上。

作为雷军一直非常推崇的零售企业，COSTCO（好市多）对于小米的影响体现在方方面面，例如COSTCO注重打造单款爆品、低价优质、采购和自有品牌相结合等等，这些在小米身上或多或少都能够找到影子。但是在COSTCO模式核心——会员制上，小米是得其形而失其神，因为小米恰恰缺少的就是这种有较强粘性的忠实粉丝。

如何有效提升粉丝粘性？提升粉丝粘性首先就需要提升服务体验，从而建立品牌忠诚度，而不是小米粉丝所谓的“价格忠诚度”。其次，提升用户粘性最有效的办法就是提高用户的更换成本，无论是硬件成本还是学习成本。

而这也是小米目前所面临的两大困境，即线下渠道开拓和单品爆款的多品类复制，分别对应小米的服务、生态战略。

1、现在，线下渠道正在被各个手机厂商重新重视起来，早期用户对于智能手机更在乎价格，而随着智能手机更新换代潮，价格正在让位于体验，譬如手机的做工、材质、手感、设计以及功能体验上，这些都需要亲自上手才能体验，并且售前指导可以不同用户差别对待，提升了用户的品牌好感。

其次，随着小米智能家居生态的推进，通过线下渠道的演示功能，来让智能硬件概念落地也愈发必要，因为智能家居冲击的是人们固有的生活方式以及理念，体验环节必不可少。

2、既然是智能家居生态，那必然就需要一套完整系统化的产品进行覆盖。而小米的智能家居产品之间的联系是相对孤立、断裂，相互之间鲜见生态优势，例如小米的IH电饭煲，作为厨房用具，其之于整个厨房生态体验而言是断层的，用户仍旧需要单独进行操作。

而线下渠道和智能家居生态显然不是一朝一夕就能完成的，除了大规模的资金通入，例如线下渠道的选址、人员培训、装潢以及智能家居的产业链布局、技术孵化等等，和练兵一样，需要长时间的精力成本才能够形成足够的战斗力。

除了融资、商业模式的问题之外，小米的主营业务增速陷入困境已经在事实上成立，目前主要包括国际市场开拓不利和国内市场增速放缓。至于国内市场的分析，有很多大神的珠玉在前，这里就暂不献丑了。

全球手机市场增量在于巴西、印度这些智能手机普及率较低的发展中国家，但是小米所以靠的低价模式在这些国家并不奏效，因为小米严重依赖中国特色——异常发达的电子商务、物流系统以及产业供应链优势。

其实糅合到一起，就是渠道扁平化遭遇困境，本来互联网电商手机的B2C模式消除了渠道中间商，也就是尽可能的削减商品成本中的运营成本，降低定倍率（即商品售价和成本的比率）。

但是这些条件在基础设施较为落后的巴西和印度都不具备，正如小米全球副总裁雨果·巴拉所言，巴西的物流、税负和仓储成本居高不下，使得小米手机的低价优势被严重削弱，面临和其他传统品牌手机一样的渠道成本问题。

而这是小米模式目前的另一大困境——没有找到放之四海而皆准的通用模式。小米模式需要的是打造一个通用架构，并且能够根据印度特色、巴西特色等进行本土化改造。当然，对于含金量较高的美国、欧洲等发达市场，小米虽具备攻城之心力，却没有掠地之能力，横亘在其中的便是专利问题，而不是模式问题。

小米手机作为小米的主营业务的支撑以及其核心战略的承载体，销量的高低将会直接营销小米一系列的战略布局的最终成效，个人认为，小米的下一步便是在国内如何保持现有存量的情况下提升产品、品牌气质；而国外市场则是如何复制小米模式。

综合来看，上市对于一家企业而言主要有两大主要功能：一是能够融得巨额资金，并获得稳定的融资渠道；二是为股东投资者建立退出机制。但这是基于企业拥有有良好的业绩前景，并且公开市场非常看好其商业模式的前提下，否则很难有好的估值。

所以，短期内小米上市弊大于利，首先，小米目前仍旧只能算是一家手机公司，在整体战略布局尚未完成时，一切对其的估值猜测都不能够体现其最大价值；第二，互联网股权众筹的方式缓解了小米战略投资所带来的资金压力，也就意味着上市对其的吸引力大大降低。

当然，雷军之所以敢喊出15年不上市，其实也从侧面证明了风投资本的态度，毕竟放长线钓大鱼，利润最大化才是他们的最终目的。