Experts say Sadr deployed winner China should let North Korea Korea China lessons | | | Sade _ North Korea news

Original title: Thad missile defense settled in and stir in North-East Asia expert: needs Korea penalty

Reporter Li Tianyang Qu Xiangyu Liu Yang

On July 8, on Friday, but for Northeast Asia, the "weekend" not meant to relax. Us and South Korean Defence Department issued a joint statement on formally announced its decision to American troops deployed in South Korea "the Terminal high altitude area defense system". Even if you're not a military buff, presumably also in various news reports in recent years have heard of it, its more familiar name, called "Sade (THAAD)".

The news got out, the Chinese Foreign Ministry websites in the Home top right most prominently published "the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement." And before long, said matters more declarations, according to the 8th ROK-US deployment "Sade" anti-missile system said China's "strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition," the statement, the title has only five words. Statement criticized South Korea's move was not conducive to the maintenance of peace and stability on the peninsula, will seriously damage the countries in the region, including China's strategic security interests and the regional strategic balance. The Chinese side strongly urges the United States and South Korea to stop "Sade" anti-missile system deployment process.

Korea JoongAng Ilbo said the United States obviously has expected deployments "Sade" is bound to cause China and Russia strongly opposed, and stresses therefore that "Sade after system deployment on the Korean peninsula, not directed against third countries, to North Korea's nuclear and missile threat." It is clearly said to the Chinese or Western media such as Reuters, Agence France-Presse reported that after this sentence, not immediately coupled with China's statement of objections. This interpretation in China over the past few years and also to n times, but attitudes remained firmly against the deployment.

Even Japan media know why China is vehemently opposed.

Japan's Asahi Shimbun said on 8th "Sade" anti-missile systems equipped with detection range of 1800 km of An/tpy-2 x-band active phased array fire control radar, the radar system will seriously weaken the Chinese ballistic missile deterrent. The Yomiuri also believes that "Sade" system could become an important tool for monitoring Chinese military. In a Foreign Ministry statement issued, Japan di Tian Guangyi, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary in Tokyo said Japan Government supported the US-South Korea deployed "Sade" anti-missile system, "third countries should not comment on this." His insights seem less than the Japan Economic News reported. The report said that the Chinese side "Sade" of radar detection systems up to 1000 to 2000 km, completely covering the Beijing, this will lead to equilibrium is destroyed.

As global times ? World Wide Web news 8th time, Pyongyang and Moscow have not yet decided to deploy us-South Korea "Sade" official response. Korea JoongAng Ilbo noted that after Putin's recent talks with XI Jinping, China's President, is included in the joint statement the two countries oppose the deployment of "Sadr", two common positions also include "against the forces of foreign military presence in Northeast Asia to strengthen", "escalation in the political and military confrontation and an arms race is not acceptable."

8th Global times ? global network reporters, three scholars Lv Chao, China, long concerned about the situation on the Korean peninsula (Liaoning Academy of social sciences researcher), Jin (Associate Dean of international relations at Renmin University), Zhao Xiaozhuo (Military Academy of Sciences of China and the United States Deputy Director of the Centre for defence studies) talked about the United States and South Korea insisted on deploying "Sade" anti-missile system view:

　　Lv Chao: North Korea is the winner

"Sade" on the face of North Korea's defense, but pose a real threat to Russia, and disrupt the balance of the Northeast Asia situation relative to the original. In Russia may be the introduction of countermeasures. United States deployment "Sade" as a return to Asia-Pacific, an important step in strengthening the arms forces in East Asia, saying that "Sade" to ensure that United States interests in the East Asia region to curb China's military development has a significant role and can also monitor the Russia military forces in the far East. United States is deploying "Sade" major trader. There is no doubt that the deployment of "Sadr" will damage the Sino-South Korean relations and setbacks, Korea's decision is very regrettable, China should make the necessary countermeasures.

Lv Chao said, "Sade" itself pure on technology, on North Korea of defense role is unlikely to, if North Korea on Korea launched attack certainly not like United States said of with in the long-range missiles, towards Han near, "Sade" of positive defense role is unlikely to, this is many Korea military experts are argument had, can certainly of said Korea move is disadvantages is greater than Lee, lost is greater than have, not only is diplomatic, on in the Han economic political cooperation also has adverse effect, in the Han people of feelings also will so produced clearance. From Korea internally, promote the deployment of "Sadr" was part of the military's hard-line pro-American forces, there are some people who have a clear position firmly opposed and opposition in Korea is strong, Korea Government has ignored such calls, the Korea society will also be affected. Korea knows the deployment "Sade" with many shortcomings still choose to deploy, has obviously been influenced by United States no small pressure.

North Korea has been is against deployment "Sade" system of, but this is surface phenomenon, actually Korea deployment, North Korea is winner, now Peninsula main target is in United Nations Framework Xia on North Korea sanctions, in this Shang China and United States Han in specific demands Shang quite consistent, if in the Han appeared opposition, will reduce North Korea of pressure, prompted North Korea abandoned nuclear became secondary problem, North Korea can from get breathing. Is the North Korea missile tests several times to stimulate the Korea hardliner, found excuses for them, reduce the pressure on North Korea by the international community, Sino-Korean cooperation on denuclearization may be affected.

　　Jin Canrong, China required actuarial

United States first deployed for military reasons, "Sade", North Korea trying to develop missiles capable of hitting Guam, United States the need to militarily control the long-range missile threat from North Korea. Politically strengthened us-South Korean Alliance more strategically on the Sino-Russian cards, national ABM system is deployed to the door. From a strategic point of view, United States began to decrease in these two years to deal with China, United States and some anxiety. International action in the past, now a few countries should, dare not to punish China economically, don't scare China militarily. Internal subversion and external pressure of public opinion, now armed forces deterrence, economic sanctions and other restrictions in the past decline in effectiveness in China means, makes the United States towards China conflicts with neighboring countries. The contradiction between China and its neighboring countries are Viet Nam and the Philippines, and now he hopes Sino-South Korean relations worse, United States initiative in the peninsula. This is the United States of "a little more focus" strategy, which are quite beautiful. China first opposed the deployment of "Sadr", but you can do some article, Russia tensions higher than China's, future Russia may be more need China. China to give Korea a little punishment, but Sino-South Korean relations cannot go too far. Under the new situation, China specifically how countermeasures requires actuarial would break off the Korea-us close Sino-Korean plot to alienate, to minimize harm.

　　Zhao Xiaozhuo: Magic feet taller, way taller Zhang

First, "Sade" system of deployment is a political decided, once Han beauty common decided deployment, next of technology program is step by step has, estimated month announced deployment locations Hou soon, "Sade" system of missile, equipment and radar on will arrived Korea, next is put Korea of "Sade" system data chain into United States of overall missile defense system data chain, will very fast.

"Sade" is, of course, that the main effect of the deployment to undermine China and United States-Russian strategic balance between the three major powers of the world. Prototype of the strategic balance between the three great powers come from the ABM Treaty signed in 1972. A basic principle is that nuclear power could be "mutually assured destruction", so although there are many nuclear warheads aimed at each other, Treaty on the construction of both the US and Russia missile defense systems has more stringent constraints, that is only in the capital, an important economic center and other key places around the establishment of anti-missile systems, and on both quantity and quality should be the equivalent of nuclear war unlikely. China and the United States between the years of strategic stability is maintained, and Russia is different, fewer nuclear warheads, and their means of delivery is relatively backward, with us several orders of magnitude of variance. China and the United States "but not broken" is not broken by China's "limited but effective" nuclear deterrent support.

"Sade" deployment of technology's biggest impact was on strengthening United States anti-missile system in the Western Pacific. Current United States deployed third-tier anti-missile system in the West too, divided along the island chain. First island chain to Japan's x-band radar and anti-missile systems, Taiwan using the "Patriot" missiles with anti-missile capabilities, and data link with United States adaptation was a part. Planned construction of the Philippines and the South China Sea an area of x-band radar and anti-missile system, likely the Philippines United States 5 bases. The second line is the United States anti-missile system in Alaska and Guam, plus Australia sites on the ground, with the United States strategic early warning monitoring platform and the satellite in the sky to form Trinity, the third line is California, and Hawaii United States native. Korea deployment of Sade, meaning was closer to the Chinese, and to make matters worse, "Thad" not only the ABM, x-band radar can monitor China's second artillery forces in North China and Russia far east part, which pose a great threat to national security. Especially for China, to make it to the United States nuclear warheads flew almost all through the Pacific, layers of block hits is greatly affected, Russia men better, because they can go ballistic in the Arctic.

China and Russia do? Magic feet taller, of course, way taller Zhang, increased intelligence on technology research and application, and enhance the validity of nuclear deterrence, and expanded cooperation in anti-missile field, anti-missile system, after all, the current failure rate is not low.

Related information:

"Sade" anti-missile system full name as "theater high altitude area defense system" (THAAD) is a ground-based anti-missile system remotely from a height, intercept above the atmosphere, reaching 150-kilometer. Is the United States in the 1990 of the 20th century for the theater missile defense (TMD) program focus on the development of the first dedicated ground system. Its main purpose is: 1) with "directly collision anti kinetic energy intercept play" technology defense in the remote theatre ballistic missile, aimed at defend big of regional from range in 3,500-kilometer following missile of attack; 2) as army double theatre missile defense system of senior defense system, both can in atmosphere within 40-kilometer above of high, and can in atmosphere outside 100-kilometer above of height intercept to hit of ballistic missile.

Source: global times

Responsible editor: Wang Hao

Article keywords:
Sade China North Korea Korea

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专家称萨德部署让朝鲜成赢家 中国应给韩国教训|中国|朝鲜|萨德_新闻资讯

　　原标题：萨德反导落户搅动东北亚 专家：需给韩国点惩罚　　

　　记者 李天阳 曲翔宇 刘洋

　　7月8日是周五，但对东北亚来说，这个“周末”注定不会轻松。美韩两国防务部门当日发表联合声明，正式宣布决定在驻韩美军部署“末段高空区域防御系统”。即使你不是军事迷，近几年想必也在各种新闻报道中听说过它，它更被人熟知的名字，叫做“萨德(THAAD)”。

　　消息一出，中国外交部网站迅速在首页右上角最显著位置刊发“中国外交部声明”。与以往动辄很长，详细点出表态事项的声明不同，8日这份针对韩美部署“萨德”反导系统表示中方“强烈不满和坚决反对”的声明，标题仅有这五个字。声明批评美韩此举不利于维护半岛和平稳定，将严重损害包括中国在内本地区国家的战略安全利益和地区战略平衡。中方强烈敦促美韩停止“萨德”反导系统部署进程。

　　韩国《中央日报》称，韩美显然已料到部署“萨德”势必引起中国与俄罗斯强烈反对，因此强调“萨德系统部署在朝鲜半岛后，不会针对第三国，至用于对朝鲜的核与导弹威胁”。这话显然是说给中国听的，否则路透社、法新社等西方媒体报道这句话后，不会立刻加上中国的反对声明。这种解释中国过去几年也听了N次，但反对部署的态度依然坚决。

　　连日本媒体都知道，中国为什么激烈反对。

　　日本《朝日新闻》8日称，“萨德”反导系统搭载有探测距离为1800公里的An/tpy-2型X波段有源相控阵火控雷达，该雷达系统将严重削弱中国弹道导弹的威慑力。《读卖新闻》也认为，“萨德”系统或将成为监视中国军队的重要利器。在中国外交部声明发出后，日本内阁官房副长官荻生田光一在东京宣称，日本政府支持美韩部署“萨德”反导系统，“第三国不应该对此做出评价”。他的见识似乎还比不上《日本经济新闻》的报道。该报道称，中方认为“萨德”的雷达探测系统高达1000至2000公里，完全覆盖了北京，这必将导致地区均衡被破坏。

　　截至环球时报·环球网记者8日发稿时，平壤与莫斯科尚未对美韩决定部署“萨德”做官方回应。韩国《中央日报》注意到，普京不久前与中国国家主席习近平会谈后，两国发表的联合声明中已包含反对部署“萨德”的内容，两国共同立场还包括“反对域外势力在东北亚地区加强军事存在”，“政治军事对抗和地区军备竞赛升级不可接受”。

　　8日接受环球时报·环球网记者采访时，三位长期关注半岛局势的中国学者吕超(辽宁社科院研究员)、金灿荣(中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长)、赵小卓(军事科学院中国和美国防务研究中心副主任)谈了他们对美韩执意部署“萨德”反导系统的看法：

　　吕超：朝鲜是赢家

　　“萨德”表面上有对朝鲜的防御作用，却对中俄构成实质威胁，进而打破东北亚局势原有的相对平衡。中俄可能会实行一些反制措施。美国把部署“萨德”看做重返亚太、加强东亚地区军备力量的重要一步，认为“萨德”对确保美国在东亚地区的利益，遏制中国军事发展有很大的作用，还可以监视俄罗斯在远东的军事力量。因此美国是部署“萨德”的主要操盘手。毫无疑问，部署“萨德”将使中韩关系带来损害和倒退，韩国的决定是非常令人遗憾，中国应该做出必要反制措施。

　　吕超说，“萨德”本身纯就技术而言对朝鲜的防卫作用不大，如果朝鲜对韩国发动攻击肯定不是像美国说的用中远程导弹，朝韩近在咫尺，“萨德”的正面防御作用不大，这一点很多韩国军事专家都论证过，可以肯定的说韩国此举是弊大于利，失大于得，不单是外交，对中韩经济政治合作也有不利影响，中韩人民的感情也会因此产生间隙。从韩国内部说，推动部署“萨德”的是部分军方强硬派和亲美力量，也有一些抱有清醒立场的人士坚决反对，且反对呼声在韩国比较强烈，韩国政府无视这种呼声，对韩国社会也将造成影响。韩国明知部署“萨德”有诸多弊端仍选择部署，显然受到了美国不小的压力。

　　朝鲜一直是反对部署“萨德”系统的，但这是表面现象，实际上韩国部署，朝鲜是赢家，现在朝鲜半岛主要目标是在联合国框架下对朝鲜制裁，在这点上中国和美国韩在具体诉求上相当一致，如果中韩出现对立，将减轻朝鲜的压力，促使朝鲜弃核成为次要问题，朝鲜可以从中得到喘息。也正是朝鲜多次试射导弹刺激了韩国的强硬派，为他们找到了借口，减轻国际社会对朝鲜的压力，中韩在无核化上的合作态度可能都会受到影响。

　　金灿荣：中国需精算

　　美国首先出于军事考虑部署“萨德”，朝鲜在拼命发展能打到关岛的导弹，美国有必要在军事上把来自朝鲜的远程导弹威胁控制住。政治上加强美韩同盟，战略上多一张对中俄的牌，把反导系统部署到中国家门口。从战略上看，美国对付中国的牌这两年相对开始减少，令美国有些焦虑。国际上过去一呼百应，现在一呼几个国家应，经济上不敢随便制裁中国，军事上吓不倒中国。现在内部颠覆、外部舆论压力、武力威慑、经济制裁等以往限制中国手段的效力在下降，使得美国转向依靠中国与周边国家的矛盾。中国与周边国家矛盾主要是越南和菲律宾，现在他希望中韩关系差一些，美国在半岛的主动性强一点。这是美国的“一点多焦”战略，它算得挺美。中国第一反对部署“萨德”，但是也可以从中做点文章，俄罗斯的紧张程度会比中国高，未来俄罗斯也许会更需要中国。中国要给韩国一点惩罚，但中韩关系不能走得太远。新形势下，中国具体怎么对策，需要精算，要破掉韩美接近，中韩疏远的阴谋，把危害降到最低。

　　赵小卓：魔高一尺，道高一丈

　　首先，“萨德”系统的部署是个政治决定，一旦韩美共同决定部署，接下来的技术程序就是按部就班了，估计月底公布部署地点后不久，“萨德”系统的导弹等装备和雷达就会运抵韩国，接下来就是把韩国的“萨德”系统数据链并入美国的整体导弹防御系统数据链，会非常快。

　　“萨德”部署的最大影响当然是破坏中国和美国俄三个世界主要大国之间的战略平衡。三大国之间的战略平衡的雏形来源于1972年签署的反导条约。当时的一条基本原则是核力量能够“相互确保摧毁”，因此尽管相互间都有很多核弹头瞄准对方，条约对美俄双方建构反导系统有着较为严格的约束，即只能在首都、重要经济中心等要害部位周边建立反导系统，且双方从数量质量上应是对等的，核大战打不起来。中国和美国间这些年的战略稳定基本上也是如此维持，而且与俄罗斯不同，我国核弹头较少，运载工具也相对落后，跟美方差了几个量级。中国和美国“斗而不破”的不破正是靠中国“有限但有效”的核威慑力量支撑着。

　　“萨德”部署技术上的最大影响则是强化美国西太平洋地区的反导体系。目前美国在西太地区的反导系统分三线部署，基本按照岛链划分。第一岛链以日本的x波段雷达和反导系统为主，台湾使用“爱国者”导弹，具备反导功能，且数据链与美国适配，也算是一部分。谋划建设的有菲律宾及南海区域的X波段雷达和反导系统，有可能是菲律宾让美国用的5个基地之一。第二线是美国阿拉斯加和关岛的反导系统，外加澳大利亚的地面站点，它与美国战略预警平台、天上的卫星形成三位一体的监控，第三线则是加利福利亚、夏威夷等美国本土。在韩国部署萨德，意味着离中国更近了，更糟糕的是“萨德”不仅能反导，x波段雷达还可以监控中国华北地区二炮部队和俄罗斯远东部分，这构成很大的国家安全威胁。尤其对于中国，能打到美国的核弹头几乎都得经太平洋飞，层层拦截命中率受到很大影响，俄罗斯人好一点，因为他们可以走北极弹道。

　　中俄如何应对？大的思路当然是魔高一尺，道高一丈，增加分弹头等技术的研究应用，提升核威慑的效度，同时在反导领域扩大合作，毕竟反导系统目前来看失败率还是不低。

　　相关资料：

　　“萨德”反导系统全名为“战区高空区域防御系统”(THAAD)，是陆基高空远程反导系统，拦截高度超出大气层，达到了150千米。是美国在20世纪90年代为战区导弹防御(TMD)计划重点开发研制的第一个专门的地基系统。其主要目的是：1)用“直接碰撞杀伤动能拦截弹”技术防御中远程战区弹道导弹，旨在保卫大的区域免遭射程在3500千米以下导弹的攻击;2)作为陆军双层战区导弹防御系统的高层防御系统，既可以在大气层内40千米以上的高空，又可以在大气层外100千米以上的高度拦截来袭的弹道导弹。

　　来源：环球时报

责任编辑：王浩成

文章关键词：
中国 朝鲜 萨德 韩国

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