"People's Republic of China the eldest son" the quagmire of economic depression, Liaoning province, the Government debt ratio doubled | | | debt _ the Government of Liaoning province news

Original title: the debt ratio doubled three years "stalemate" survey

Reporter Yang Zhijin

　　Solutions for local debt

Liaoning was the eldest son of the Republic, is into an economic quagmire of negative growth, more alarming is that economic development is a "rising debt risks-new contract-infrastructure investment funds-slowdown-debt risk climbed" loop, how to break this awkward circle, placed in front of the large province of Liaoning and other resource-based problems.

　　Guided reading

Although the Government of Liaoning province in 2015 debt balance is reduced slightly, but due to the sharp contraction of the integrated financial and debt reached 157.72%. Compared to the end of 2014 and 25%, from 2012 expand 88%.

In early July, Shenyang hunnan white Tahe road, jindaowanli square, surrounded by weeds. Square bundles of steel framework fall on one side, and rusty. Nearby residents said that commercial real estate project has shut down more than two years.

In places such as Shenyang hunnan new district, Shenyang-Fushun city, shut down real estate projects are not uncommon. First quarter of the year, only negative growth in their provinces are Liaoning national GDP: growth-only 1.3%.

21st century business Herald reporters interview shows, in addition to outside factors such as population, the private economy developed, high government debt ratios on the formation of government investment and financing constraints, so that capital inflows to reduce, and perhaps important reasons of slowing economic growth in Liaoning.

In particular, because of the sluggish real estate market, revenue and governmental Fund revenues nearly halved in Liaoning province, the Government debt ratio "passive" increase. This further the integration of Government-led funds increase narrowed the field of investment and financing infrastructure investment have fallen sharply, investment in infrastructure "countercyclical" economic effect does not appear.

Budget report shows the end of 2015, the Liaoning Provincial Government debt totaled 871.85 billion compared to late 2012 growth 356.985 billion. According to relevant data, Liaoning 2015 debt ratio at the end of 157.72%, compared to late 2012 rose 88%.

Department of Finance of Liaoning province last year issued a document around the city also said: "the larger debt balances in our province, far exceeds the standard limit of debt. ”

　　Doubling the debt for three years but the risk is not

According to the audit report for the Audit Department, by the end of 2012, Liaoning province has the responsibility for debt balance was 514.865 billion, debt 68.78%. In the country's 31 provinces, Liaoning government debt and debt when rates are not high.

Turning point in the year 2014. Liaoning Provincial Government debt 878.751 billion that year, compared to late 2012 expansion to more than 360 billion.

In this regard, a prefecture-level city in Liaoning province, the financial systems to the 21st century business Herald journalists explains, 2013-year audit, places are not yet fully reported to the Government debt; the 2014 debt when screening, thinks that this is the last finds that debt financing platforms of opportunity, select debt and contingent liabilities to the Government. Therefore, in 2014 outstanding government debt increased.

However, this interpretation may not be comprehensive.

In October 2014, the financial system to clean up the Government debt of the screening. In addition to Chongqing, a 2014 local government debt showed expansion in most provinces. Liaoning's particularity lies in its debt and expand at the same time, comprehensive resources in 2014 has narrowed significantly.

Plus, due to greater reporting of contingent liabilities of the Government to government debt, the Liaoning Provincial Government has responsibility for the debt increased as a share of total government debt: its specific gravity by up to 2014 2012 in 83%.

Although the Government of Liaoning province in 2015 debt balance is reduced slightly, but due to the sharp contraction in comprehensive financial, equal to the denominator becomes small, debt ratio increased to 157.72%. Compared to the end of 2014 and 25%, from 2012 expand 88%.

According to the Department of Finance of Liaoning province, Liaoning province, in January-May this year fiscal revenue ratio declined from a year earlier to 8.6%. If this trend continues, financial contraction will continue to indirectly enlarge debt exposures.

According to the 21st century business Herald reporter, the end of 2015, debt rate second only to Guizhou, Liaoning province (190%), are more than 100% of the cordon. At the time of the former Liaoning Provincial Department of finance does not respond to 21st century business Herald reporter interview.

Regionally, the debt risks under the jurisdiction of cities in Liaoning province have also not optimistic. According to the 21st century economic reporter access to 2015 debt the highest in Dalian City, nearly 200 billion, other cities government debt and tens of billions of per cent.

Debt rate, in addition to panjin, a, tieling, Liaoyang, Fushun and Jinzhou prefecture-level cities, such as debt ratios exceed 100%, Fushun has more than the maximum 200% (see graphic).

Financing platform for some areas with higher debt ratios, rating rating reports issued by the company, (Liaoning) local government debt under a lot of pressure, future debt repayment pressure.

21st century economic reported reporter get of Liaoning Province Department of finance 2015 issued of local government debt limit measuring description displayed, the province measure local government debt risk of thought is: in financing environment deterioration, and market no added financing source support take new also old of risk outbreak tipping point--that local government in guarantee issued wage, and organ running, and necessary livelihood project, and debt coupon, rigid spending of premise Xia--compression other spending Hou, General can maintained debt debt.

Documents, in accordance with the above idea, size of average annual payments on outstanding government debt should be less than or equal to the annual debt-servicing resources. Measure, debt balances the standard limit shall be equal to the local government debt means multiplied by the average length of its debt. This provincial Department of finance document, Liaoning Provincial debt is large, far exceeds the standard limit of debt.

21st century business Herald reporter learned that, last year the Central Bank branch in Liaoning province Liaoning investment and financing platform for research, major investment projects, business development and substitution effect of debt on loans. "Despite the increased risk, but the platform default risk exposure is yet to appear. "Bank Liaoning branch involved in the investigation said.

　　Capital logistics bottlenecks

Outside is highly concerned about the domestic process of deleveraging. Scio briefing of the end of June, China's national development and Reform Commission said Sun Xuegong, Deputy Director of the Finance Division, the corporate sector deleveraging at the same time, the Government and residents should be suitably added leverage to ensure stable development of the economy.

Liaoning Provincial Academy of social sciences, Institute of Economics, Director CHEUNG Man-to the 21st century business Herald said, the Liaoning government debt is relatively high. In Liaoning province, the Government should still deleveraging.

Traditionally, the main levers of government forms through the expansion of infrastructure investment. That is why the Government "counter-cyclical" an important means of adjusting macro-economy. In Liaoning, passive increase of the Government debt ratio and Government-led funds increase narrowed the field of investment and financing in 2015, infrastructure investment fell 22.6%.

For the immediate project funding requirements, and public finances at present, Liaoning province, it is difficult to translate into investment capacity. The prefecture-level city in the financial system before and who are, in order to balance the budget, local compression spending become the norm: "public funding" part will be cut, while some was supposed to invest in double guide financial funds, small and micro businesses is yet in place, capital expenditures will be reduced.

"Part of the investment in infrastructure through land leasing expenses, but after the land transfer to reduce infrastructure investments also fell. "He said.

Added do not have many municipal bond funds. In accordance with Ministry requirements, provinces assigned to the new bonds for higher debt ratio amount is relatively small. In the context of national debt new bonds to expand 50%, Liaoning since the debt rate is greater than the warning line, its added 12.5 billion debt by 2014 have diminished in 2015 to 10.65 billion.

Financial markets, local government debt last year was a stream of Liaoning province. This year, under the same conditions, bid interest rate is higher than that of local debt in Liaoning province by 10 basis points (BP).

City investment bond the successful bidder also showed a visible risk premium in interest rates. A Beijing brokerage investment banking Department project to the 21st century business Herald said, three provinces in Northeast China city investment bond offering higher interest rates than other provinces around 50 BP. Dongbei special steel after the default this year, companies risk review of the Liaoning project are more stringent, have higher requirements for local resources.

Loans and bonds are still important financing channels of government investment and financing field, Liaoning province not only bonds but increase reduction loans also decline.

21st century business Herald reporters wind compiled, 2013-2015 58, Liaoning city investment company new long-term loan and bond financing and 32.049 billion and 18.382 billion respectively, 1.042 billion, decreasing, even more so in 2015.

21st century economic reporter access to a local city commercial bank in Liaoning province said the 2016 public credit policy guidelines, on real estate loans, Liaoning province Shenyang and Dalian of non-residential projects in addition to specializing in the commercial real estate business may not intervene, Yingkou, Dandong principle does not intervene, compressed out of the stock. Credit policy guidelines also specify, which in principle may not be involved in the three Northeastern provinces Government platform project.

"Platform for financing to Liaoning province, and government debt, we are more cautious. Whether loans, purchases are also non-standard financing financing balance within our province a few platforms are on the decline. "An inter city firm, Liaoning province, the middle of the 21st century business Herald said," recently a district level platforms want us to subscribe them to issue debt, but strongly rejected. ”

In Liaoning province, new credit have gradually declined. Bank Shenyang branch data show that Liaoning new loans decreased from 2012 347.45 billion in 2015 to 325.9 billion, displays the degree of economic boom is on the decline.

Responsible editor: Wang Hao

Article keywords:
Liaoning Government of debt

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“中华人民共和国长子”辽宁省经济陷泥潭 政府债务率翻番|辽宁|债务|政府_新闻资讯

　　原标题：辽宁债务率三年翻番 “僵局”全调查

　　记者 杨志锦

　　解局地方债

　　辽宁，曾经的共和国长子，正在陷入经济负增长泥潭，更值得警惕的是，辽宁经济发展正在陷入“债务风险攀升-新增资金收缩-基建投资下降-经济增速放缓-债务风险攀升”的循环中，如何破解这一尴尬的循环，成为摆在辽宁以及其他资源型大省面前的难题。

　　导读

　　虽然辽宁省2015年政府债务余额小幅缩减，但由于综合财力的大幅收缩，其债务率达到157.72%。相比2014年末扩张25个百分点，相比2012年扩张88个百分点。

　　7月初，沈阳浑南新区白塔河二路，金道万丽广场四周杂草丛生。广场内一捆捆钢筋框架歪倒在一边，锈迹斑斑。附近居民说，这一商业地产项目已停工两年多。

　　在沈阳浑南新区、沈抚新城等地，停工的地产项目并不少见。今年一季度，全国GDP唯一负增长的省份便是辽宁：经济增速仅为-1.3%。

　　21世纪经济报道记者实地采访显示，除人口流出、民营经济不发达等因素外，过高的政府债务率对政府投融资形成制约，以致资金流入减少，或许也是辽宁经济增速放缓的重要原因。

　　具体而言，由于房地产市场不景气，辽宁财政收入和政府性基金收入几乎腰斩，政府债务率“被动”上升。这进一步使政府主导的投融资领域到位资金增幅收窄，基建投资规模也大幅下降，基建投资“逆周期”调节经济的作用并未显现。

　　预算报告显示，2015年末辽宁省政府债务余额为8718.5亿，相比2012年末增长3569.85亿。根据相关数据计算，辽宁2015末债务率为157.72%，相比2012年末上升了88个百分点。

　　辽宁省财政厅去年下发各地市的一份文件亦坦言：“目前我省债务余额较大，远超出债务标准限额。”

　　债务率三年翻番但风险未显

　　根据审计部门的审计报告，截至2012年末，辽宁省负有偿还责任的债务余额为5148.65亿，债务率68.78%。在全国31个省份中，彼时辽宁政府债务规模和债务率均不高。

　　转折点出现在2014年。当年辽宁省政府债务余额8787.51亿，相比2012年末扩张了3600多亿。

　　对此，辽宁省一地级市财政系统人士向21世纪经济报道记者解释称，2013年审计时，地方并未全面上报政府债务；2014年债务甄别时，融资平台认为这是最后一次认定债务的机会，选择多报并将或有债务报为政府债务。因此，2014年政府债务余额增加较多。

　　不过，这一解释或许并不全面。

　　2014年10月，财政系统对政府性债务进行清理甄别。除重庆外，大多省份2014年地方政府债务都呈扩张态势。而辽宁的特殊性在于其债务扩张的同时，综合财力在2014年已经明显收缩。

　　再加上，由于选择将政府或有债务更多地上报为政府债务，辽宁省政府负有偿还责任的债务占政府性债务的比重上升：其比重由2012年的74%上升至2014年的83%。

　　虽然辽宁省2015年政府债务余额小幅缩减，但由于综合财力大幅收缩，相当于分母变小，债务率增至157.72%。相比2014年末扩张25个百分点，相比2012年扩张88个百分点。

　　辽宁省财政厅的数据显示，今年1-5月辽宁省财政收入比上年同期下降8.6%。如果这种趋势持续下去，因财力收缩而间接放大债务风险的情况还将继续。

　　据21世纪经济报道记者了解，2015年末，辽宁省的债务率仅次于贵州(190%)，均超过100%的警戒线。截至发稿前，辽宁省财政厅并未回复21世纪经济报道记者的采访函。

　　分地区来看，辽宁下辖地级市的债务风险亦不容乐观。21世纪经济报道记者获得的数据显示，2015年大连市债务规模最高，近两千亿，其他地级市政府债务规模几百亿不等。

　　从债务率来看，除盘锦外，锦州、铁岭、辽阳、抚顺等地级市债务率均超过100%，最高者抚顺已经超过200%(详见本版图形)。

　　针对一些高债务率地区的融资平台，有评级公司出具的评级报告称，(辽宁)地方政府债务压力很大，未来债务偿还有一定压力。

　　21世纪经济报道记者获得的辽宁省财政厅2015年下发的《地方政府债务限额测算说明》显示，该省衡量地方政府债务风险的思路是：在融资环境恶化、市场无新增融资来源支撑借新还旧的风险爆发临界点——即地方政府在保证发放工资、机关运转、必要民生项目、债务付息等刚性支出的前提下——压缩其他支出后，大体能维持债务还本。

　　文件称，按照上述思路，平均每年需要偿还的政府债务余额规模应小于或等于地方年度可偿债财力。据此衡量，债务余额标准限额应等于地方政府可偿债财力乘以债务平均年限。上述省财政厅文件认为，目前辽宁省债务余额较大，远超出债务标准限额。

　　21世纪经济报道记者了解到，去年央行辽宁分支机构对辽宁投融资平台进行调研，主要了解投资项目、业务开展情况以及置换债对贷款的影响。“虽然风险增加，但是平台违约等风险暴露的情况还没有出现。”参与调研的央行辽宁分支机构人士表示。

　　资金运筹瓶颈

　　外界正高度关注国内的去杠杆进程。6月底的国新办吹风会上，中国国家发展改革委员会财金司副司长孙学工表示，企业部门去杠杆的同时，政府和居民应适度加杠杆，以保证经济平稳发展。

　　辽宁省社科院经济研究所所长张万强对21世纪经济报道记者表示，辽宁政府债务还是比较高。对辽宁来说，政府部门还是应该去杠杆。

　　传统上，政府加杠杆的形式主要通过扩大基建投资实现。这也是政府“逆周期”调节宏观经济的重要手段。在辽宁，由于政府债务率的被动提高，政府主导的投融资领域到位资金增幅收窄，2015年基建投资同比下降22.60%。

　　对即期项目资金需求而言，辽宁省目前公共财政也很难转化为投资能力。前述地级市财政系统人士介绍，为平衡财政收支，当地压缩财政支出成为常态：“三公经费”肯定会被砍掉部分，而一些本该投资于双创、小微企业的财政引导资金迟迟未到位，基建支出也会减少。

　　“一部分基建投资通过土地出让金支出，但土地出让金减少之后，基建投资也回落了。”他说。

　　新增地方政府债券资金也不多。按照财政部要求，债务率过高的省份分配到的新增债券额度相对较少。在全国地方债新增债券规模扩大50%的背景下，辽宁因为债务率超警戒线，其新增债券规模由2014年的125亿反而减少至2015年的106.5亿。

　　金融市场上，辽宁地方债去年一度流标。今年以来，同等条件下，辽宁地方债的中标利率要高于其他省份10个基点(BP)左右。

　　城投债的中标利率也出现明显的风险溢价。北京一券商投行部项目负责人向21世纪经济报道记者表示，东北三省城投债发行利率要比其他省区高50个BP左右。今年东北特钢违约后，公司对辽宁项目的风险审查更严格，对地方财力有更高的要求。

　　贷款和债券仍然是政府投融资领域重要的融资渠道，不过辽宁省不仅债券增幅缩减，贷款也有下滑趋势。

　　21世纪经济报道记者根据wind资讯整理，2013-2015年58家辽宁城投公司新增长期贷款和债券融资之和分别为320.49亿、183.82亿、10.42亿，逐年递减，2015年更甚。

　　21世纪经济报道记者获得一份辽宁当地城商行《2016年对公信贷政策指引》称，房地产贷款上，辽宁省沈阳和大连非住宅项目除专业商业地产经营企业外不得介入，营口、丹东原则不介入，存量压缩退出。信贷政策指引同时注明，该行原则上不得介入东北三省政府平台项目。

　　“对辽宁省的平台融资和政府性债务，我们比较谨慎。不管是贷款、购买债券还是非标融资，我们行省内几个平台融资余额都在减少。”一位辽宁省内城商行中层人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，“最近一家区县级平台希望我们认购他们发行的企业债，但我们坚决拒绝了。”

　　在辽宁，新增信贷也逐年减少。人行沈阳分行的数据显示，辽宁新增贷款由2012年的3474.5亿减少至2015年的3259亿，显示经济景气程度在下滑。

责任编辑：王浩成

文章关键词：
辽宁 债务 政府

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