Expert: after 2020 China or independent growth
The Chief Photographer of the Visual Center of the China economic weekly Xiaoyi | photoThe China economic weekly reporter Wang Hongru | Beijing
(Article published in the China economic weekly, 2016, 27th)
At present, China is facing a rapidly aging, workforce reduction of population structure such as many economic and social problems, follow the are fears of a demographic crisis in China. Especially recently, late on the 21st century, China's population was shrunk to 600 million or 1 billion more is rife.
If the decline in population, as the predicted huge, will give the economy the kind of impact? By the end of this century, China will have a population of? Is there any population crisis in China of the 21st century?
End of 21st century China's population of 1 billion, or 600 million?
At a recent Conference of the 2016 Summer Davos Forum, Chinese Academy of social sciences scholar Zheng Zhen of the population really led to this discussion. She said that this century, China's population would be reduced to the level of 1980, which is 1 billion people.
There's more pessimistic forecasts. United States population and statistics at the University of Wisconsin said scholar Huang wenzhen, the end of the century, China's population to maintain a level of 1 billion, even if immediate fertility is strongly encouraged, by 2100 to over 800 million of China's population, the greater may be as low as 600 million.
1 billion people, 800 million people and 600 million people, many presented the numbers one by one, which one is more accurate? "1 billion people is very accurate, plus or minus 20 million or 30 million. "Yang Yiyong, Director of the Institute of social development of China national development and Reform Commission told the China economic weekly reporter said, predicting the population model, the fertility rate of the population assumptions, the age profile of a series of indicators, very professional, very scientific," I believe the United Nations comparison of prediction accuracy. ”
End of July 2015, the United Nations Population Division released the 2015 world population prospects, China's population is expected to fall back to 1.004 billion by the end of this century. This is the predicted value, its low predictive value was 613 million, forecast higher to 1.555 billion.
In accordance with United Nations programmes, China's total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.55 2010-2015, 2015-2020 as 1.59, 2020-2030 1.66, 2045-2050 to 1.74, 2,095-2,100 was 1.81.
"With China's actual fertility level which is close to forecast is basically possible. "Yang Yiyong said.
Reasonable level of fertility is a key factor in promoting the balanced development of population, then, China's actual fertility level is how much?
Total fertility rate data to fight the two ministries, which the letter?
Fertility refers to the different times and in different areas or the actual fertility levels or the number of children women of childbearing age, calculation. Now commonly used is the total fertility rate.
Total fertility rate refers to the country or region's women during the childbearing years, average number of children per woman. The total fertility rate is a measure of fertility and total fertility rate of less than 1.3 international called "low-fertility trap" or "very low fertility", arguing that such population replacement, reproduction and populations on the future development of a negative.
All along, the controversy about the Chinese total fertility rate high or low. 2000 fifth population census results show that China's total fertility rate was 1.22 2010 sixth population census, this figure fell to 1.18; after 2011, 2012, 2013, the total fertility rate is 1.04, 1.26 1.24, respectively. In 2015, China 1% census showed that China's total fertility rate was 1.25.
However, these data are not competent sectors of the population. National health family planning Commission released data shows that "Twelve-Five" since the population continues to grow, in late 2014 reached 1.368 billion, under the influence of adjustment of the age structure of the population and family planning policy, population keeps growing, the total fertility rate is 1.5 to 1.65.
This data with census 1.25 gap is not small. Which better reflects reality?
"Census total fertility rate is 1.25, but the census there were a number of amendments, amended the total fertility rate is 1.6. Correction is due around 2010 many black households in China, when error estimates there are 30 million population. This 30 million ' black households ' not on the account. Current population of black households have more than 10 million. "Yang Yiyong, told the China economic weekly reporter, will be ' black households ', is because some people dare not to have more children, will be fined. But these children face in the 7 years after school. "The event even more at that time. 7 years later to reflect the population 7 years ago, the total fertility rate is amended by these data and information. ”
Expert: after 2020 China could soon achieve autonomous growth
State Department had arranged to have its population development strategy research, peak population should be controlled at about 1.5 billion people in China, women's total fertility rate remained at 1.8 per cent is too high or too low are not conducive to the coordinated development of population, economy and society. The China economic weekly reporter, and now probably has a population crisis, traps and shrinking theory in three views.
Views on the crisis said that China's working-age population has declined for many years. In 2014, under 16-60 of the working-age population of 915.83 million people, than the end of 2013 fell 3.71 million in 2013 and the end of 2012 than a loss of 2.44 million.
Trap theory, center Yao Meixiong, Deputy Director of the Fujian Provincial Bureau of census, he said China had fallen into the low fertility trap. "More than 10 years to the national total fertility rate between 1.4 to 1.5, well below the 2.1 replacement level, much lower than the world average of 2.5, and even lower than the level of 1.7 in developed countries. Because fertility rates below the replacement level for a long time, negative demographic trend is irreversible, is expected in 2026 will turn negative after. ”
"Shrinking" theory of Huang wenzhen, he called China's "shrinking" will go on forever, and shrinking population is not going to stop 2100, after which it will shrink further, unless you restore the fertility rate to replacement level (that is, the fertility rate of 2.2, statistics show 2015 fertility rate of 1.25).
Yang Yiyong of the three views hold negative views. He told reporters of the China economic weekly, in 21st century China not a demographic crisis, will fall into the low fertility trap populations cannot shrink indefinitely. "The population has a volatile period, during the peak down will go up. After 2020, China may soon achieve autonomous growth (Editor's Note: also known as family planning, refers to couples free to decide the number and spacing of their children), because macro-policy change, socio-cultural change, human knowledge will change, you can have more. Especially when people the disaster awareness, people will take the initiative. Thousands of years of human history there have been many such proofs. ”
Yang Yiyong a population forecast peak may appear in around 2030, estimated that by 2030, the population will reach a peak of 1.45 billion. "Currently China's population problem is a structural problem, still more than the total population. ”
In fact, China's current population structure have been more serious. Statistics show that 2014 0~14sui only 16.5% per cent of the population, already in a severe, much lower than the world average of 27%.
In addition to the low birth rate, aging is speeding up. Statistics in 2014, old people aged 60 and over 212 million people, accounting for 15.5% per cent of the total population; population of 137 million people over 65 years old, accounted for more than 10.1%, the equivalent of one out of every 10 people aged 65 or older. By 2050, China's elderly population aged 65 and over will reach 400 million, proportion of the total population of more than 30%.
In addition, serious sex ratio at birth imbalance. Data shows that in 2010, the 0~19sui population of 22.1 million more boys than girls, and the ratio is 114.6:100.
China's "demographic dividend" is still in the window period, attention should be paid "talent dividend"
Population crisis on the settlement of disputes, as well as "demographic dividend" disappearing judgment.
Many saw China's sustained and rapid economic growth in recent decades is due to the "demographic dividend". The so-called "demographic dividend" refers to a larger proportion of the working-age population of the country, low dependency rates, population has created favourable conditions for the economic development, the country's economy showed a high savings, high investment and high growth situation.
CAI Fang, Vice President of Chinese Academy of social sciences concluded that in the 30 years since the reform and opening up, bonus contribution to China's rapid economic growth rate of the population as high as 27%.
However, since 2012, China's working-age population aged 15 to 59 years old for 4 consecutive years of decline. 2015 937 million to 911 million person work force by 2012. So many people come to "China's demographic dividend is shrinking year by year and even disappear" judgment.
China's demographic dividend did disappear? Yang Yiyong rejected on this issue: "China's demographic dividend is reduced, now in a window period, dividend remains. ”
Then, leaving China's "demographic dividend," how long do we still have?
Currently there are two schools of thought: one view demographic dividend can continue beyond 2030, another view is that by the year 2030, this advantage disappears.
Yang Yiyong does not agree with a "demographic dividend" this statement: "do not nostalgia demographic dividend period piece. Demographic dividend is not a particularly good thing, eating was addicted, but will is very passive. ”
Accompanied by, along with the gradual disappearance of the population bonus led to the slowdown in economic growth. Mr CAI said in 2016 "vision glasses" global macro-economic forecast Spring said at the annual meeting, along with the gradual disappearance of the population bonus, the Chinese economy's potential growth rate inevitably declines.
Anecdotal and even view too fast population growth rates decline, demographic too fast population and ageing are becoming factors of restricting the development of China's economy.
Yang Yiyong does not agree with this view, in his opinion, the demographic dividend on a lower competition, but the Chinese economy to a new stage, from low-grade to high-grade industrial function, you have to give up dividend, creating talent dividend, that is number of people don't care how much, but people can do. China to create new advantage of the talent dividend to the central emphasis on talent strategy direction.
(Editors: Liu Cheng UN649)
2016-07-12 00:09:32
Integrated
专家：2020年后中国或实现自主生育
《中国经济周刊》视觉中心 首席摄影记者 肖翊|摄 《中国经济周刊》记者 王红茹 | 北京报道
（本文刊发于《中国经济周刊》2016年第27期）
当前，中国正面临着因老龄化加速、劳动人口减少等人口结构带来的诸多经济与社会问题，随之而来的，是对中国人口危机的担忧。尤其是近期，关于21世纪末中国人口到底是萎缩到6亿还是10亿的讨论更是甚嚣尘上。
如果人口数量真如预测的那样巨幅下降，会给中国经济带来什么样的影响？到本世纪末，中国将有多少人口？21世纪的中国到底有没有人口危机？
21世纪末我国人口是10亿还是6亿？
在近日召开的2016夏季达沃斯论坛上，中国社科院人口学者郑真真的发言引发了这场讨论。她说，本世纪末中国人口将减少到1980年的水平，也就是10亿人。
还有更悲观的预测。美国威斯康星大学人口和统计学者黄文政日前表示，到本世纪末，中国人口很难维持到10亿水平，即使立即大力鼓励生育，中国人口到2100年也难以超过8亿，更大可能是低至6亿。
10亿人、8亿人、6亿人，诸多数字一一呈现出来，哪一个比较准确？“10亿人比较准确，正负两三千万。”中国国家发展改革委员会社会发展研究所所长杨宜勇接受《中国经济周刊》记者采访时表示，预测人口有人口模型、生育率假设、年龄分布状况等一系列指标，很专业，也很科学，“我认为联合国的预测中方案比较准确。”
2015年7月底，联合国人口署发布《2015年世界人口展望》，预计中国人口到本世纪末将回落到10.04亿。这是联合国的中预测值，其低预测值是6.13亿，高预测值则为15.55亿。
根据联合国中预测方案，中国2010—2015年的总和生育率被假设为1.55，2015—2020年为1.59，2020—2030年为1.66，2045—2050年为1.74，2095—2100年为1.81。
“这组数据与中国的实际生育率水平比较接近，预测基本上是靠谱的。”杨宜勇说。
合理的生育率水平是促进人口均衡发展的一个关键因素， 那么，中国目前的实际生育率水平是多少呢？
两部委总和生育率数据打架，该信哪个？
生育率是指不同时期、不同地区妇女或育龄妇女的实际生育水平或生育子女的数量，计算方式。目前普遍采用的是总和生育率。
总和生育率，是指该国家或地区的妇女在育龄期间，每个妇女平均的生育子女数。总和生育率是一个时期生育水平的度量指标，国际上通常将总和生育率低于1.3称为“低生育率陷阱”或者“极低生育率”，认为这样的人口在人口更替、再生产和人口未来发展上不利。
一直以来，关于中国总和生育率高低的争议不断。2000年第五次人口普查结果显示，当时中国的总和生育率为1.22；2010年第六次人口普查时，这一数字下降为1.18；之后2011、2012、2013年的总和生育率分别为1.04、1.26、1.24。2015年，中国1%人口普查显示，中国的总和生育率仅为1.25。
然而，这些数据基本不被人口主管部门采用。国家卫生计生委公布数据显示，“十二五”以来我国总人口继续增长，2014年末达到13.68亿人，受人口年龄结构以及生育政策调整的影响，出生人口保持增长态势，总和生育率为1.5至1.65。
这个数据跟人口普查时的1.25差距不算小。哪一个更能反映现实呢？
“人口普查的总和生育率是1.25，但人口普查有一个修正数，修正后的总和生育率是1.6。之所以修正，是因为2010年左右中国的黑户很多，当时人口误差估计有3000万。这3000万‘黑户’没上户口。目前的人口黑户还有1000多万。”杨宜勇告诉《中国经济周刊》记者，之所以会有‘黑户’，是因为有的人超生了不敢报，报了就要罚款。但是这些孩子在7年以后面临上学。“那个时候补报的人数比较多。7岁以后再来反映7年以前的人口，总和生育率是通过这些数据和信息进行修正的。”
专家：2020年以后，中国可能很快实现自主生育
国务院曾经组织开展的人口发展战略研究认为，中国人口总量峰值应控制在15亿人左右，妇女总和生育率保持在1.8左右，过高或过低都不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展。《中国经济周刊》记者梳理，目前大概有人口危机论、陷阱论和萎缩论三种观点。
持危机论观点的人认为，中国的劳动年龄人口已经连续多年下降。2014年，中国16—60周岁以下的劳动年龄人口91583万人，比2013年末减少371万人，而2013年比2012年末也减少244万人。
持陷阱论的，是福建省统计局普查中心副主任姚美雄，他称中国已经掉入低生育率陷阱。“近10多年来全国总和生育率在1.4至1.5间，远低于2.1的更替水平，大大低于世界2.5的平均水平，甚至比发达国家水平1.7还低。由于我国生育率长时间低于更替水平，人口负增长趋势已不可逆转，预计2026年后就将出现负增长。”
持“人口萎缩”论的是黄文政，他称中国的“人口萎缩”会一直持续下去，并且，人口萎缩不会到2100年就停止，在此之后将进一步快速萎缩，除非生育率恢复到更替水平（即2.2的生育率，统计显示2015年生育率为1.25）。
杨宜勇对上述三种观点均持否定意见。他告诉《中国经济周刊》记者，21世纪中国没有人口危机，不会掉入低生育率陷阱，人口也不可能无限制萎缩下去。“人口有一个波动期，在高峰下来之后又会上去。2020年以后，中国可能很快实现自主生育（编者注：也叫家庭计划，是指由夫妇自主地决定生育子女的数量和生育间隔），因为宏观政策变了，社会文化变了，人的认识也会随之发生改变，就可以多生了。尤其是大家有灾害意识的时候，人类就会主动多生。几千年的人类发展历史就有许多这样的证明。”
杨宜勇预测下一个人口高峰可能在2030年左右出现，估计到2030年人口将达到14.5亿的峰值。“目前中国人口的问题主要是结构性问题，总量问题依然超过适度人口。”
其实，目前中国的人口结构扭曲已经比较严重。资料显示，2014年0～14岁的人口占总人口比例只有16.5%，已经处于严重少子化，大大低于世界27%的平均水平。
除了低生育率，老龄化也在加速。国家统计局数据显示，2014年中国60岁及以上老人2.12亿人，占总人口比例为15.5%；65岁以上人口数为1.37亿人，占比10.1%，相当于每10个人里就有一个65岁以上的老年人。到2050年，我国65岁及以上的老年人口数量将达到4亿，占总人口比重将超过30%。
此外，出生性别比失衡严重。数据显示，2010年，0～19岁人口男孩比女孩多了2210万，男女比例是114.6：100。
我国“人口红利”仍处于窗口期，应重视“人才红利”
伴随人口危机论争议的，还有我国“人口红利”是否消失了的判断。
很多人将中国近几十年经济持续快速增长归结为“人口红利”。所谓“人口红利”，是指一个国家的劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较大，抚养率比较低，为经济发展创造了有利的人口条件，整个国家的经济呈高储蓄、高投资和高增长的局面。
中国社会科学院副院长蔡昉研究认为，改革开放以来的30年间，人口红利对中国经济高速发展的贡献率高达27%。
但是，自2012年以来，中国15岁至59岁的劳动年龄人口连续4年下降。2015年劳动力规模由2012年的9.37亿降至9.11亿人。由此让很多人得出“中国的人口红利正在逐年缩水甚至消失”的判断。
中国的人口红利消失了吗？杨宜勇对此问题予以否定：“中国的人口红利是有所降低，目前处于一个窗口期，人口红利依然存在。”
那么，留给中国的“人口红利时间”还有多久？
当前主要有两种观点：一种观点认为人口红利还能延续到2030年以后；另一种观点则认为在2030年之前，这种优势就将消失。
杨宜勇并不赞同“人口红利”这种说法：“不要再留恋人口红利的明日黄花。人口红利不是特别好的东西，吃上瘾了，反而会很被动。”
与之相伴的，是随着人口红利的逐步消失导致的经济增速下滑。蔡昉日前在2016“远见杯”全球宏观经济预测春季年会上表示，随着人口红利的逐步消失，中国经济的潜在增长率不可避免下滑。
坊间甚至有观点认为，人口增长率过快下滑、人口结构过快少子化和老年化，正在成为中国经济发展的制约因素。
杨宜勇并不赞成上述观点，在他看来，在低层次竞争上看人口红利，但是中国经济要上新台阶，从中低档次的产业往中高档次的产业功能迈进，就得放弃人口红利，创造人才红利，即不在乎人口的数量多少，而在乎人能不能干。中国要创造人才红利的新优势，向中央强调的人才强国战略方向迈进。
(责任编辑：刘盛钱 UN649)
2016-07-12 00:09:32
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