Nanhai farce today the result of arbitration us media speculation that three different reactions | sea arbitration _ news
[Global times report] on July 12, 2016, this should be a normal day, but the outcome of the arbitration case from the oven but let the South China Sea on this day in the eyes of world public opinion to become "very unusual." Though China has made it clear that did not accept, does not recognize the ruling, but the drama may bring great uncertainty, international public opinion is still a concern. Australia people on 11th, holding their breath waiting for the South China Sea in Asia Award, the results could trigger "since Russia sent troops to Crimea since the greatest test to the international order." In addition to the ruling, the outside world is most concerned about China, the Philippines and the United States third party will react, China foreign media list from "moderate" to "get tough" with a range of responses to "options." United States not parties directly, but who knows, one playing "Nanhai police" role of Uncle Sam is the biggest drivers behind the dispute. Associated press claims that not only concerns the sovereignty of Islands and waters, the South China Sea dispute became "China challenges United States-led Asia's strategic order testing ground". No matter how much Washington wants to, it can be confirmed, China cannot "take care of" United States the idea of making concessions on the issue of sovereignty. United States and other countries placed great hopes of quorum node after the situation in the South China Sea will go from here?
Arbitration will trigger a "conflict storm?"
"The risks at sea: Philippines VS China", the Sydney Morning Herald said on 11th Sea Arbitration Tribunal to rule on the disputed South China Sea waters of some of the major issues, this is one of the most closely watched in the current global political decisions. This is what Australia fears moment: China and the United States between the battle and eventually evolved into a storm. United States has been eager to ensure that the decision is as much publicity as possible, China responded with naval exercises last week and contempt. Australia report, said arbitration comes as the South China Sea, Asia will be holding their breath. Half the world's merchant shipping through the South China Sea every year. Recently, China's naval exercises near the Paracel Islands, and the United States, "Stethem" number, "Spruance" destroyer in controlling China's huangyan island and some islands of Nansha Islands reef passing nearby. Tom Miller, an analyst in Beijing, "said ruling was expected to draw more clearly potential fronts. "The Chinese side said that regardless of the outcome of arbitration case, the Chinese side will not be accepted and recognized. Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister called it "a farce".
The 29th of last month, the Philippines unilaterally against the South China Sea Arbitration Tribunal Member said, will be officially announced on July 12 at about 11 o'clock local time in the Hague ruling. July 12 has become in the eyes of the international media's "big day". 11th in the New York Times said in Tuesday's arbitration ruling, China opposes more knock louder drums. Beijing is how to respond to the outcome of arbitration may be shaped in an increasingly dangerous hot spots of the relations among big powers. Came out of arbitration comes as United States military presence in the region, trying to lead the world in Washington forced China into submission amid public opinion to put pressure on China.
United Kingdom according to the financial times, is not conducive to China's decision is likely to heighten China's and the United States between the strained relations. United States normalized to send naval vessels to the South China Sea of China "artificial islands around" to strengthen "freedom of navigation". If the arbitral tribunal supports the Philippine claims in the arbitration request, may be declared "nine lines" are in fact illegal, or sought clarification from the Chinese "nine lines" of the base. Beijing refused to do, saying China's claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea is based on historical precedent. United Kingdom the London morning post even with "is the issue of the South China Sea 1914 disturbing echo of a powder keg" as its theme, if the United States and China can control their geopolitical competition in Asia, everything no problem; if the control is bad, an "upgraded version of a war" it is entirely possible.
"A high degree of concern recently over the South China Sea Arbitration, some speculation and even outrageous, indicates that we are very concerned about the situation in the South China Sea. "China's marine security and cooperation Hulsen, senior researcher for the global times said, there are many means to protect national interests, military confrontation is just one of the options, not all of the South China Sea. China has explicitly rejected arbitration, arbitration doesn't mean anything to us policy, sovereignty in the South China Sea.
"China's position on this thing actually, you don't have to wait until tomorrow, you already know it from beginning of 2013. "11th in a press briefing, was asked to arbitration after the results are released," the speed of how quickly China will respond "when land Kang, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said:" we simply do not recognize and will absolutely not accept such a illegal, completely contrary to international law, of a unilateral lift known as the arbitration case. "Lu Kang also said that recently many countries openly supported China's stand on the issue of the South China Sea. "In the face of this fact, the individual still trying to tarnish the image of China's so-called arbitration cases countries have difficult to pose to the international community, has been difficult to act as the spokesman of international law, it's hard to say China is called self-isolation. ”
Public opinion warfare continued until the last minute. The associated press until the 12th before the arbitration decision, Washington and Beijing are competing heavily for support for their position. United States influence in Western and some Asian countries, called for increased diplomatic pressure on China to abide by arbitration. China insists are not bound by arbitration, by securing support from mainly African and Middle Eastern countries to fight back. Agence France-Presse said, a small number of Filipinos from 11th to protest outside the Chinese Embassy in Manila, by the "Brexit" (the United Kingdom out of the EU), inspired some social networking on China from the South China Sea, "CHexit" (meaning China). United Kingdom broadcaster said China was increasing opinion offensive, in addition to State-run media issued a condemnation of the Philippines and the United States, Chinese diplomats have signed articles published in the local media from around the world reaffirmed China's position. Even thousands of miles away, and the South China Sea had nothing to do with Chinese diplomats in Cyprus for arbitration signed article.
US media speculation that three responses
Face not to recognize the outcome of arbitration, how will China react? United Kingdom 11th, the guardian said, arbitration is widely expected results will contribute to Manila, which could trigger Beijing's anger and protest, the intensity of the reaction will depend on the decisions and details. University of Sydney United States tangsiende Research Center scholars said Beijing will respond to any criticism of the Arbitration Tribunal to angry words, and may strengthen the military forces on the Islands under its control as an act of defiance, "but no military danger way out."
"Beijing's South China Sea choice, from mild to strong" United States 11th listed by Bloomberg, China's "three options". Mild response: China's Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement that the Chinese side does not accept the decision, or will completely ignore their so-called judgment; further expansion of the war of public opinion, emphasizing the more than 60 countries support China's South China Sea position; moratorium on new military facilities in the Nansha Islands. The hard-line response: announced the establishment of the South China Sea the air defense identification zone, commercial aircraft and military aircraft communications flight plans in advance; efforts to increase maritime police and naval patrol, blockade "aground" charity reef Philippines ship supply; withdrawal from the United Nations Convention on law of the sea. Tough response: China has begun to build artificial facilities in Scarborough, in radar deployed on the island, aircraft and missiles can directly and the use of us military bases in the Philippines in Manila; in extension reef offensive missile systems were deployed and the army; love reef "aground" Philippines ship towed away.
Bloomberg said, the United States sees itself as the water police. If China adopted a tough response, will make the United States in a difficult position. United States Defense Secretary Robert Carter said in June that if China's huangyan Island the implementation of, the United States will take action. But the US side earlier in other parts of the world and the lack of so-called "crossed the line of action" to take adequate response, after all, the United States fought thousands of miles away from their coastline is not in line with their own interests. According to the New York Times, United States as the dominant military power in the region, may use arbitration decisions to prove more naval patrols were legitimate, secure new allies and old allies more support and to world opinion against Beijing's behavior.
"No matter how to respond, there is no doubt that China's sovereignty over the South China Sea give an inch. "Hulsen told the global Times newspaper said China has tried his best to maintain sea peace efforts that China has the ability to control the situation in the South China Sea, because of concerns over the years to other countries and strive for peaceful settlement of disputes did not take radical action. South China Sea after arbitration, do not look at China's attitude, United States, the Philippines, Viet Nam and other countries reaction is also important. China will also take corresponding measures according to their action.
Of the global times, a Chinese military expert said that peaceful and stable peripheral security environment currently still in development is crucial and the rise of China, United States now is to try every means to interrupt China's development momentum. Keep United States strategic plan to succeed, it should be is in the best national interest of China. After arbitration results, United States if you take too much means, such as the joint cruise the South China Sea, then we can announce the South China Sea the air defense identification zone. "Our construction of the South China Sea has achieved remarkable results, should now be seen tackling, should not move. ”
Japan urging G7 statement
The United States of inciting and double standards, the international community is very clear. The Sydney Morning Herald said the United States deliberately fanned expectations for the ruling, however, is not over the South China Sea standoff. China vows to ignore the ruling and strongly for their international supporters. United States through "based on rules of order" dispute, but the United States itself has not ratified the United Nations Convention on law of the sea, which has weakened Washington's leadership. According to the Convention, China has the right to exclude arbitration, as Australia did in maritime boundary dispute with East Timor.
Alun·Mohan·sukumaer 11th, head of New Delhi's observer Research Foundation network initiative in the United States wrote in the Wired Magazine Web site, the new President of the Philippines duteerte the United States does not have feelings like the former Aquino, the Philippine side has recognized legal means to upgrade the folly of political disputes with China. Several days before the ruling, duteerte seeking "direct dialogue with China as soon as possible." Arbitration may be a setback for Beijing, but will not let the relationship deteriorated to the point where irreparable, seriously undermine stability in the region. As a former Chinese diplomat Dai bingguo in Washington puts it, is United States General Douglas MacArthur after World War II to help China regain the Spratly Islands. If the political need for United States support for China, now it is promoting the Philippines confrontation with Beijing, which is unbearable in Manila.
New Government's policy will not change regardless of the Philippines, United States always have a "hardcore Sidekick"--Japan. Singapore's Straits Times said 11th as the Abe Government, "pre-emptive diplomacy" part of Japan is trying to let the Group of seven countries issued a joint statement on the South China Sea Arbitration findings. Japan media reported that the G7 is expected to make a statement, this is the third time since April that the organization statement on maritime security in order to put pressure on Beijing. Japan is not the South Somali, but China's growing military power as a threat. Japan xiyuanyashi, Director of the Institute for peace and security said that as this year's G7 Summit in Tokyo by the Presidency is trying to promote "G7 agree with allies in Southeast Asia," "before the G7 Summit, a number of European countries in the South China Sea issue and had little interest in, but then they started to increase."
[Global times stationed in the Philippines, the United Kingdom, and Germany global times special correspondent Fu Qiang Sun Weiqing wood Xing Xiaojing Zhen Xiang Wei Hui]
Source: global times
Responsible editor: Qiao Leihua SN098
Article keywords:South China Sea Arbitration
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南海仲裁闹剧今日出结果 美媒猜测中国三种反应|南海仲裁_新闻资讯
[环球时报综合报道]2016年7月12日，本应是普通的一天，但南海仲裁案结果的出炉却让这一天在世界舆论眼中变得“很不寻常”。尽管中国已明确表示不接受、不承认裁决，但面对这场闹剧可能带来的巨大不确定性，国际舆论还是一片担忧。《澳大利亚人报》11日称，亚洲屏住呼吸等待南海裁决，结果可能引发“自俄罗斯出兵克里米亚以来对国际秩序的最大考验”。除了裁决结果，外界最关注的是中国、菲律宾和美国三 方将作何反应，有外媒罗列出中国从“温和”到“强硬”的一系列回应“选项”。美国虽然不是直接当事方，但谁都清楚，一心扮演“南海警察”角色的山姆大叔才 是争端背后的最大推手。美联社宣称，不仅关乎岛礁和水域主权，南海纠纷成了“中国挑战美国主导的亚洲战略秩序的试验场”。不管华盛顿怎么想，有一点可以确 认，中国不可能为了“照顾”美国的想法在主权问题上让步。被美国等国家寄予厚望的仲裁节点过后，南海局势会何去何从？
仲裁会引发“冲突风暴”？
“海上的巨大风险：菲律宾VS中国”，《悉尼先驱晨报》11日称，南海仲裁庭即将就南海争 议水域的一些重大问题作出裁决，这是目前全球政治中最受关注的决定之一。这也正是澳大利亚所担心的时刻：中国和美国之间的争斗或最终演变成为一场风暴。美国一直 急于确保裁决结果得到尽可能多的宣传，中国则在上周报之以海军演习和蔑视。《澳大利亚人报》称，南海仲裁结果出炉之际，亚洲将屏住呼吸。每年世界商船运输 一半要通过南海。近来，中国海军在西沙群岛附近举行演习，而美国“斯特西姆”号、“斯普鲁恩斯”号驱逐舰则在中国控制的黄岩岛和南沙群岛部分岛礁附近驶 过。在北京工作的分析师汤姆·米勒称，“裁决预计将更清晰地划出潜在的战线。”中方表示，无论仲裁案最终结果如何，中方都不会接受和承认。中国外长王毅称 之为“一场闹剧”。
上月29日，菲律宾单方面状告中国的南海仲裁案仲裁庭书记处发布消息称，将于海牙当地时间 7月12日11时左右正式公布裁决结果。7月12日由此成为国际媒体眼中的“大日子”。《纽约时报》11日称，对于将于周二出炉的仲裁判决，中国反对的鼓 点越敲越响。北京如何回应仲裁结果可能塑造在一个越来越危险的热点地区的大国关系。仲裁的出炉正值美国在该地区加强军事存在，华盛顿试图引领世界舆论向中 国施压、逼中国就范之际。
英国《金 融时报》称，不利于中国的裁决可能会加剧中国和美国之间的紧张关系。美国常态化地派遣海军舰艇前往南海的一些中国“人造岛屿”附近，强化“航行自由”。如果仲裁 庭支持菲律宾在仲裁请求中的主张，可能会宣告“九段线”实际上是非法的，或者要求中国澄清“九段线”的法理基础。北京拒绝这么做，称中国对南海的主权要求 是基于历史先例。英国《伦敦金融城晨报》甚至以“南海是发出1914年不安回声的火药桶”为题称，如果美国和中国能够管控它们在亚洲的地缘竞争，一切都没 有问题；如果管控不好，一场“升级版的一战”完全有可能。
“最近外界对南海仲裁的关注度很高，有的猜测甚至离谱，说明大家都很关心南海局 势。”中国海南海洋安全与合作研究院高级研究员许森对《环球时报》记者说，维护国家利益有很多手段，军事对抗只是其中一个选项，不是南海问题的全部。中国 已经明确拒绝仲裁，仲裁结果对我们在南海的政策、主权没有任何意义。
“中方对于这个东西的立场实际上你不用等到明天，你从2013年一开始就已经知道 了。”11日在记者会上，被问到仲裁结果出炉后“中方会以多快的速度作出回应”时，中国外交部发言人陆慷表示：“我们根本不承认、也绝对不会接受这样一个 非法的、完全违背了国际法的这么一个单方面提起来的所谓的仲裁案。” 陆慷还表示，近期又有很多国家公开表态支持中国在南海问题上的立场。“在这样的一个事实面前，个别仍在试图拿所谓仲裁案抹黑中国的国家已经很难再以国际社 会自居，已经很难再以国际法代言人自居，已经很难再称中国是所谓自我孤立了。”
舆论战一直持续到最后一刻。美联社称，直到12日仲裁案裁决之前，华盛顿和北京都 在大力争取对本国立场的支持。美国一直在西方和部分亚洲国家施加影响，要求增加对中国遵守仲裁的外交压力。中国坚称不受仲裁约束，通过争取主要为非洲和中 东国家的支持进行反击。法新社称，少数菲律宾人11日到中国驻马尼拉大使馆外抗议，受“Brexit”（英国脱离欧盟）的启发，一些人在社交网络上要求中国从 南海“CHexit”（意为中国撤出）。英国广播公司称，中国正加大舆论攻势，除了官方媒体发文谴责菲律宾和美国，中国的外交官们也在全球各地的当地媒体 上发表署名文章重申中国立场。即使远在千里之外，与南海仲裁毫无干系的塞浦路斯也有了中国外交官的署名文章。
美媒猜测中国三种反应
面对自己不承认的仲裁结果，中国会如何反应？英国《卫报》11日称，外界普遍预计仲裁结果将有利于马尼拉，这可能引发北京的愤怒和抗议，反应的激烈程度将决定于裁决的力度和细节。悉尼大学美国研究中心学者汤斯恩德说，北京将以愤怒言辞回应仲裁庭的任何批评，并可能加强在其控制的岛礁上的军事力量作为一种蔑视行为，“但不可能以军事上危险的方式出击”。
“北京的南海选择，从温和到强硬”，美国彭博社11日列出中国的“三种不同选 择”。温和回应：中国外交部发表措辞强硬的声明，表示中方不接受判决，或者说将完全无视其所谓判决；进一步扩展舆论战，强调60多个国家支持中方南海立 场；暂停在南沙群岛新建军事设施。比较强硬回应：比如宣布设立南海防空识别区，要求商业飞机和军机提前通报飞行计划；加大海警和军舰巡逻力度，封锁“坐 滩”仁爱礁的菲方舰艇补给；退出《联合国海洋法公约》等。强硬回应：中方开始在黄岩岛建设人造设施，在岛上部署雷达、飞机和导弹能直接覆盖马尼拉和美军使用的菲律宾基地；在扩建岛礁上部署攻击性导弹系统和军队；将仁爱礁“坐滩”的菲方军舰拖走。
彭博社称，美方把自己定位为这片水域的警察。如果中国采取强硬回应，将令美国陷入 困难境地。美国防长卡特6月曾表示，若中方在黄岩岛实施建设，美方将采取行动。不过美方此前在世界其他一些地区并没有对所谓“越过红线的行动”采取足够回 应，毕竟美方在远离本国海岸线数千英里的地方打起来并不符合自己的利益。《纽约时报》称，美国作为本地区主导性的军事大国，可能利用仲裁决定来证明其更多 的海军巡逻是正当的，争取新的盟友，给老盟友更多支援，并争取世界舆论反对北京的行为。
“不论如何回应，毫无疑问中国对南海主权寸步不让。”许森对《环球时报》记者表 示，中国已为维护南海和平尽了最大努力，中国完全有能力掌控南海局势，这些年正是因为顾忌到其他国家，力争和平解决争端问题才没有采取激进行动。南海仲裁 之后，不要光看中国的态度，美国、菲律宾、越南等国的反应也很重要。中国也会根据它们的行动采取相应措施。
一名中国军事问题专家对《环球时报》记者说，和平稳定的周边安全环境对当前仍处于 发展和上升阶段的中国来说至关重要，美国现在就是要想尽一切办法打断中国的发展势头。不让美国的战略谋划得逞，应该是最符合中国国家利益的。仲裁结果出炉 后，美国如果采取过分手段，比如搞南海联合巡航，那我们就可以宣布南海防空识别区。“我们的南海建设已经取得显著成效，现在应该是见招拆招，切忌乱出 招。”
日本撺掇G7发声明
对美国的挑拨和双重标准，国际社会看得很清。《悉尼先驱晨报》称，美国故意煽起对 裁决的预期，尽管如此，裁决并不会结束南海僵局。中国誓言无视裁决，并大力争取自己的国际支持者。美国强调通过“以规则为基础的秩序”解决争端，但美国自 身却没有批准《联合国海洋法公约》，这削弱了华盛顿的领导。根据公约，中国有权排除仲裁，正如澳大利亚在与东帝汶的海上边界争端中所做的那样。
新德里观察者研究基金会网络倡议负责人阿伦·莫汉·苏库马尔11日在美国《连线》 杂志网站撰文说，菲律宾新总统杜特尔特对美国并不像前任阿基诺三世那样有感情，菲方已经认识到以法律手段升级与中国的政治争端的愚蠢。在裁决前数日，杜特 尔特寻求“尽早与中国直接对话”。仲裁对北京而言也许是一个挫折，但不会让双方关系恶化到无法挽回的地步，严重破坏地区稳定。正如中国前外交官戴秉国日前 在华盛顿指出的那样，正是美国将领麦克阿瑟在二战后帮助中国收复南沙群岛。如果说当时的政治需要促使美国支持中国，现在它正推动菲律宾与北京对抗，而这是 马尼拉难以承受的。
不管菲律宾新政府的政策会不会变，美国始终有一个“铁杆跟班”——日本。新加坡《海 峡时报》11日称，作为安倍政府“先发制人外交”的一部分，日本正试图让七国集团就南海仲裁结果发表联合声明。日本媒体报道称，G7预计将发表声明，这将 是4月份以来该组织第三次就海上安全发表声明，以向北京施压。日本不是南海声索国，但将中国日益增强的军事力量视作威胁。日本和平与安全研究所所长西原雅 史说，东京作为今年G7峰会轮值主席国正努力促使“G7与东南亚盟国达成一致”，“在G7峰会前，一些欧洲国家对南海问题并没有什么兴趣，但此后他们开始 加大关注”。
[环球时报驻菲律宾、英国、德国特约记者 付强 孙微 青木 环球时报记者 邢晓婧 甄翔 魏辉]
来源：环球时报
责任编辑：乔雷华 SN098
文章关键词： 南海仲裁
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