China's National Defense University Professor: South China Sea war United States National Defense University carrier return | | | Sea Arbitration United States aircraft carriers _ news

Sea Sky won't fall down

Qiao Liang

As the arbitration case results for the South China Sea, international opinion, especially United States control of Western public opinion on China's many negative words. Although the outcome of arbitration and has no legal effect, but it does to smear China's role may also be encouraged around the South China Sea and China's controversial move to damage China's interests. For this we need to be prepared.

Things have gone to this point, the main test is a strategic force. After all, the South China Sea it is going for this arbitration results from falling. United States military posture is already setting the South China Sea, all the operations in the South China Sea it is a show, wants to put China on the spot with China without thorough turn. United States the reasons for this: first, suppress the Chinese Challenger momentum so as to maintain United States hegemony. Second United States cannot on its own restructuring of domestic economy, the only way is to use soft power to messing up other countries and highlight the United States economy is relatively good. Europe's debt crisis, the Ukraine crisis, colour revolutions in the Middle East, and even China and Japan dispute over the Diaoyu, United States has made a circle where chaos, fail. Now it also chose the South China Sea. Third, by disrupting China, East Asian countries follow the United States join the TPP, which will exclude China, forcing China's economy continued downward. Four is looking to promote its third "offset". In the South not only aggravating, as part of the strategy, United States with North Korea's nuclear test of the machine, forcing Korea to accept the deployment of "Sade" anti-missile system, which is designed to offset in the first and second island chain has formed a military advantage.

There is concern that the outcome of arbitration after the war in the South China Sea, I find this worry unnecessary. Although the United States has two aircraft carrier battle groups in the South China Sea, but clearly not here for the war. Americans are very clear, two carriers in the South China Sea sailed through without problems, but really fight, two carriers may not go back. The waters of South China Sea is too small as a battlefield, if war broke out, only one dominant country is China, which derives from and aspects related to geopolitical factors. United States military power, but its long supply lines can not meet the demands of the war in the South China Sea, the Philippines, Guam and other places cannot meet this demand.

This arbitration case can be said to be facing the most serious geopolitical crisis in China since the reform and opening. In the process of dealing with, and we should learn from the experience: first of all, we need to increase the construction of discourse competence, before that system is clearly not enough.

Secondly, in the military, we will have more tools and methods. Remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to unexpected situations still necessary at any time, but need to learn to give trouble maker trouble, problem makers create problems and then get rid of always dealing with the situation. For "low profile", we felt a certain misunderstanding. Its meaning is the undisputed boss, but not have to tolerate the passive situation. And not only is only passive aggression, by others are calculated or calculated to discredit, is also passive. In this regard, we must learn to be smart, learn to change from passive to active.

Third, the history of the country, including now the United States is using military means, and in particular to achieve the goal of non-war military operations. China is big, but it clearly shows that lack of experience, need to humbly learn from its opponents. ▲ (The author is a professor at National Defense University)

(Source: the global times)

Responsible editor: Chen yan SN225

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National Defense University, South China Sea Arbitration United States aircraft carriers

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中国国防大学教授:南海若开战，美国航母回不去了|国防大学|南海仲裁|美航母_新闻资讯

　　南海的天塌不下来

　　乔 良

　　随着南海仲裁案结果公布，国际舆论尤其是被美国操控的西方舆论对中国多有不利之辞。虽然仲裁结果并无法律效力，但它确实起到了抹黑中国的作用，还可能会鼓动南海周边某些与中国有争议的国家做出损害中国利益的举动。对此我们须有准备。

　　事情发展到这一步，主要考验的就是战略定力了。说到底，南海的天不会因为这个仲裁结果塌下来。美国对南海军事态势早已设定尺度，它在南海的所有行动就是一场秀，想既让中国难堪又不至于与中国彻底翻脸。美国这样做的原因：一是打压中国的挑战者势头，这样才能维系美国霸权。二是美国无法依靠自身力量重整国内经济，唯一办法就是利用软实力搞坏搞乱其他国家，进而凸显美国经济相对良好。欧债危机、乌克兰危机、中东颜色革命乃至中国和日本钓鱼岛争端，美国已经搞了一圈，搞哪儿哪儿乱，屡试不爽。现在它又选择了南海这个点。三是通过扰乱中国，促使东亚国家追随美国加入TPP，这样就将中国排除在外，迫使中国经济继续下行。四是借机推进其第三次“抵消战略”。不仅在南海搅局，作为该战略组成部分，美国还借助朝鲜核试验之机，迫使韩国接受部署“萨德”反导系统，其目的都是为了抵消中国在第一和第二岛链内已形成的军事优势。

　　有人担心仲裁结果公布后南海会发生战争，我觉得这种担心没必要。虽然美国两个航母战斗群都摆在了南海，但显然不是为了战争而来。美国人很清楚，两艘航母在南海航行通过没有问题，但真打仗的话，两艘航母可能都回不去。南海这片水域作为战场来讲太过狭小，如果发生战争，唯一占优势的国家就是中国，这源于与地缘有关的各方面因素。美国虽然军事力量强大，但其漫长的补给线根本满足不了在南海开战的需求，菲律宾、关岛等地也无法满足这种需求。

　　这次仲裁案可以说是改革开放以来中国面临的最严重地缘政治危机。在应对过程中，我们也要汲取经验：首先，我们需加大话语能力建设，以前那套话语体系现在显然不够用了。

　　其次，在军事上，我们应有更多手段和办法。保持警惕并随时做好应对意外情况的准备仍然必要，但还需学会给麻烦制造者制造麻烦、给问题制造者制造问题，进而摆脱总是被动应对的局面。对于“韬光养晦”，过去我们多少有些误解。它的意思是不争当老大，但决不是要忍受被动挨打的局面。而且也不只有被侵略才算被动挨打，遭别人设套算计或蓄意抹黑，同样也是被动挨打。在这方面，我们必须学得更聪明些，学会变被动为主动。

　　第三，历史上诸大国、包括现在的美国都擅用军事手段特别是非战争军事行动来达到目的。中国已是大国，但在这方面明显经验不足，需虚心向对手学习。▲(作者是国防大学教授)

　　（来源：环球时报）

责任编辑：陈琰 SN225

文章关键词：
国防大学 南海仲裁 美航母

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