China's domestic oil prices downward for the second time within a year return 5 | domestic oil prices _ the times news

Information diagram. News Agency, Mr CHEUNG photography



January-June of the International crude oil price chart. Source: CMS information.



China's national development and Reform Commission summary of previous oil price adjustments. Source: long petrochemical network

CNS, Beijing, July 21-year oil product retail price adjustment window period opened July 21, at 24 o'clock for the 14th time. After the first two amazing, several agencies predict will mark the second time this year the oil price decline, prices per litre again 5 times.

In June, the International crude oil prices have been in shock consolidation within the price range of 45-52 dollars per barrel. Previous price cycles (June 9 – July 7), according to the domestic oil product pricing mechanism, adjusting the amount of less than 50 Yuan per ton, prices do not adjust.

Several agencies believe that this round of price hike cycle, due to the rising dollar, United States fuel stocks rose around the world such as Cushing, adding to concern about a glut in the market, led to international shocks in oil prices downward.

As of market close on July 19, the London ice Brent crude-oil futures settled at $ 48.18, WTI crude oil futures settled at $ 47.6; the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures closed at $ 45.45, compared to June 8 at 51.23 dollars, decreased to 11.28%.

CMS information view, consolidated after the first two rounds of domestic oil prices stranded, on July 22 retail price is expected to be down 145 Yuan/ton. Long petrochemical network monitoring is expected, the prices of gasoline and diesel down 130-150 Yuan/ton, or $ 0.10 and 0.13 Yuan per liter.

This year, the domestic refined oil has undergone 13 price adjustment window, 4 of them up, 1 down and 8 does not adjust – because international oil prices below $ 40 a barrel, "floor price" without adjustment. A domestic oil price cut on January 13 this year 24 o'clock, gasoline and diesel oil price down 140 and 135 Yuan per ton respectively.

NCR thought is expected, if the retail downturn, domestic retail sales of gasoline and diesel market will once again fully return to "five times". For end consumers, reduce the cost of travel is good news.

In Yu Ma Jiancai, information analyst estimates, now 145 Yuan/ton drop calculation when 92# down about 0.11 Yuan/liter of gasoline, 0# diesel oil cut of about 0.12 Yuan per liter. According to the general household gas tank 50L capacity estimation, fill it up with a tank of gas will save approximately 5.5 Yuan.

For future oil prices, Yu said Zhang Jin, information analyst, international oil prices continue to move down the center of gravity in the near future, Fed rate hike expectations and concerns crude demand on the market in the near future more and down 145 Yuan/ton is expected this Friday, wait-and-see mood in the market is strong.

NCR thinking believe that recent oil demand forecasts show that global demand growth is slowing and inventory is still high, especially oil inventory is expected next week, there is still downside risk in international oil prices.

Long term, long crude oil analyst Li Yan that Petro-pass, the current international oil market no overwhelmingly good and bad, the basic supply and demand will determine the price of oil in the long run. Due to the excess supply gradually eased, decline in oil prices is unlikely to collapse in the second half of this year, or the overall performance was stronger than last year, $ 37-40 or near a solid bottom, if there is no sudden major plus, $ 55 is probably oil prices this year "ceiling". (Cheng Chunyu)

Responsible editor: Kun Qu SN117

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中国国内油价一年内第二次下调 回归5元时代|国内油价_新闻资讯

资料图。中新社发 张云 摄



1-6月国际原油期货价格走势图。来源：中宇资讯。



中国国家发展改革委员会历次成品油价格调整汇总表。来源：隆众石化网

　　中新网北京7月21日电 我国年内第14次成品油零售价调价窗口期7月21日24时开启。经过前两次搁浅后，多家机构预测本次成品油价格将迎来年内第二次下调，每升油价再次回归5元时代。

　　6月份开始，国际原油价格一直处于45-52美元/桶的价格区间内震荡盘整。前两次调价周期（6月9日-7月7日）内，按国内成品油价格机制，调价金额每吨不足50元，成品油价格不调整。

　　多家机构认为，本轮调价周期内，因美元上涨，美国库欣地区等全球各地燃油库存大涨，加重了市场对供应过剩的忧虑，导致国际油价震荡下行。

　　截至7月19日收盘，伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油期货结算价报48.18美元，WTI原油期货结算价报47.6美元；纽约商品交易所原油期货结算价收报45.45美元，相比6月8日的51.23美元，下跌幅度为11.28%。

　　中宇资讯认为，综合前两轮国内油价搁浅幅度后，预计7月22日零时成品油零售限价将下调145元/吨。隆众石化网监测预计，本次汽柴油价格下调130-150元/吨，折合每升0.10-0.13元。

　　今年以来，国内成品油已经历13次调价窗口，其中4次上调，1次下调，8次不作调整——六次因国际油价低于每桶40美元的“地板价”而不调整。上一次国内油价下调发生在今年1月13日24时，汽、柴油价格每吨分别下调140元和135元。

　　安迅思预计，若此次成品油零售价格下调，国内汽柴油零售市场将再次全面回归“五元时代”。对于终端消费者来说，降低出行成本无疑是个好消息。

　　中宇资讯分析师马建彩估算，按现在的145元/吨的下跌幅度计算，届时92#汽油下调约0.11元/升，0#柴油下调约0.12元/升。按一般家用汽车油箱50L的容量估测，加满一箱汽油将节省约5.5元。

　　对于未来油价走势，中宇资讯分析师张津表示，近期国际油价重心继续下移，美联储加息预期再起和近期原油需求的担忧对市场打击较大，且本周五预计下调145元/吨，市场观望情绪浓郁。

　　安迅思认为，近期的原油需求预测报告显示，全球需求增长正在减缓，而库存仍然居高不下，特别是成品油库存，预计未来一周，国际油价仍有下行风险。

　　长期看，隆众石化通原油分析师李彦认为，当下国际原油市场的利好和利空均无压倒性优势，最基本的供需面将决定油价中长期走势。由于供应过剩逐渐缓解，今年下半年油价或难出现崩塌式下滑，整体表现或强于去年，37-40美元附近或成较坚固底部，若无突发性重大利好，55美元可能就是今年油价的“天花板”。（程春雨）

责任编辑：瞿崑 SN117

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