China's high-speed rail profits map: make a lot of money in Eastern, Central, Western | high-speed rail _ news

The Chief Photographer of the Visual Center of the China economic weekly Xiaoyi photography



Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed trains, and Ning-Hang Gaotie net profit reached 641 million Yuan and 101 million yuan in 2015. CFP

The China economic weekly reported Xinhua Shanghai Lao Jiadi |

(Article published in the China economic weekly, 2016, 30th)

Even in the "first nation" United States, high-speed rail has been a sensitive topic. Soon after taking office in his State of the Union address, Obama throw allocated tens of billions of dollars of good faith, macerated by Republicans and private owners of land who voted, one of the important reasons is to keep up--until 2015, America first Gao Tiecai broke ground in California.

The same time, because of high costs led to losses controversial high-speed rail in China has entered a profit-making period. Officially secret operations report card for a long time horizon in recent days: last year the Beijing-Shanghai, Shanghai-Nanjing, Nanjing-Hangzhou, Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong, Shanghai-Hangzhou and Beijing-Tianjin-6 high-speed railway profit is positive, except for Beijing-Tianjin high-speed lines, the remaining lines are running within 5 years to achieve profitability, last year's net profit of 6.58 billion yuan of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway also known as the world's most profitable high-speed rail.

In fact, the recognized break-even or profitable high-speed rail line in the world there are only two articles: traffic in 1964 Japan Tokaido Shinkansen and the Paris-Lyon TGV South-East line opened in 1981. France high-speed rail in 1995, is still mired in losses, arrears of wages for up to 3 weeks even the railway workers ' strike.

However, although domestic high-speed rail comparable to the rate of profit only by Tokaido Shinkansen, but there are still many high speed rail to break loss-making situation. According to the China economic weekly reporter, zhengxi, your Canton, LAN, Cheng Gui, South Canton, Lan-Yu and other high-speed rail lines in the Midwest are losing money, and some even from profits in sight.

　　The "demographic dividend" into a profitable key

East Coast high speed rail line is to become the largest profits in the area of "cow". Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail once expected is that 5-year construction period, plus operating 5 years, gradually to reach break-even, 14 years after repayment. After two years in a row in 1 billion after taking into account losses, 2013 or even market rumors say, second to third-largest shareholder in Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, ping an asset management company and the National Council for Social Security Fund also has suggested withdrawal request.

But in 2014, daily sending more than 290,000 visitors of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, high-speed rail ticket revenues of about 30 billion yuan has been approaching break-even point last year, which brings together the national rail passenger routes are one-eighth of a major breakthrough, reaped nearly 6.6 billion yuan in net profit for the year, become a railway company in the hands of the most valuable, high quality assets.

High speed rail generally profitable highlights in the Yangtze River Delta region. The China economic weekly reporter held 17% shares of Jiangsu Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed rail transportation holding company earnings, Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed rail connecting Shanghai and Nanjing also in 2014 to profit Net profit of 142 million Yuan profits last year expanded, reaching 641 million; Ning-Hang Gaotie in 2014 after a loss of 380 million Yuan, the same profit inflection points in last year, 101 million yuan in net profit, while according to the original Hu yadong, Deputy General Manager of the railways Corporation said, building the shorter length of the Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway have been profitable.

This is closely related to the above-mentioned population density along the high-speed rail. Such as the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway runs through the three municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hebei, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, connecting Bohai rim and the Yangtze River Delta, two most developed and urbanization's fastest-growing economic region, along the 26.7% of the total population of the country's population, accounted for 11 million population city. Shanghai-Nanjing and Shanghai-Hangzhou, Nanjing and Hangzhou line is running through the urban agglomerations in China's most populated, the productivity of the most developed Yangtze River Delta region.

Two other first profitable high speed rail lines the same interpretation of the "demographic dividend" of logic. The Canton-Shenzhen-Hong Kong rail profit of 177 million Yuan last year, for example, Hong Kong had not yet been built, but already the backbone connects two souls in the PRD cities line, Shenzhen and Dongguan station along the population flows. The sixth population census results show that the net inflow of Guangdong province 10 years about 20.62 million, ranking first in the country, is the most attractive cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

2008 opening of the Beijing-Tianjin high-speed rail line was the first high-speed rail passenger line, 120-km-long railway line connecting Beijing and Tianjin, two pivotal northern cities, radiation of the economic population amount to billions. Although there is no advantage of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway that low debt ratio, according to the China railway tunnel Group Deputy Chief Engineer Wang mengshu introduced, the current "star line" is also profitable.

　　Midwest high speed rail operations generally bleak

Than with the developed eastern areas, countries in building high-speed rail lines in the Midwest is fire ice days. The China economic weekly notes, put into operation as early as January 2010 zhengxigaotie (Zhengzhou-Xian) compared to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway early launch, profitability is always worrying. According to the feasibility study for the zhengxigaotie, in busy sectors 2010 day for lines 59 to high-speed rail emus, 2018, 125 in 2028 177 a day every day. Now, however, zhengxigaotie a day driving about 30 pairs of high-speed emus, far from increasing, even 6 years ago plans were watered down, attendance is less than 50%. Two years later, iron total were disclosed, due to the high iron loss of 1.4 billion yuan, was a drag on earnings of 400 million Yuan loss of 1 billion yuan in Zhengzhou Railway Administration.

Through the longest karst landscape of Guizhou-Guangdong high-speed railway profitability is not optimistic. It is understood that the Guizhou-Guangdong high-speed railway with a total investment of 91.819 billion yuan, 50% principal, 50% for 10-year loans. Cheung Kin-GUI-Guang railway company Board Chairman and General Manager had publicly admitted, even with 6.6% of the basic interest rate, interest on mortgage repayments will be 3 billion yuan a year. Guizhou-Guangdong high-speed railway opened, ticket revenues to 1 billion yuan a year, not counting loss of utilities, labor services, parts, maintenance and other costs, operating loss is expected.

, Probably the same struggle has cost lanxingaotie of 143.5 billion yuan (Lanzhou-Urumqi), although all have 39 points, but diminishing population density from Lanzhou to Urumqi, in Xinjiang through the Gobi wind is a world famous inland's four zones, maximum wind speed of 60 m/s, which makes construction costs to increase. Lanzhou to Urumqi each day, now only open 5 on the EMU, Lanzhou to Xining, only this time the short line for more than an hour driving more on the EMU, cost recovery is in sight.

Wide study on railway network of people believes that high-speed rail along the most critical Fulcrum profit or not, is urban population density, economic development is brought about by the traffic increase. Reporter note to, 2014 World Bank had has survey displayed, 2013 China high-speed rail passengers travel purpose more is business and leisure, in long JI city inter (Changchun-Jilin) high-speed rail Shang, passengers average months into 4300 Yuan, General train only for 3200 Yuan; Tianjin-Jinan Duan Gaotie of passengers earning 6700 Yuan, above General train of 4500 Yuan, description high-speed rail passengers more is income high of crowd.

The geographical imbalance in the urbanization rate of more than 90% of Japan also set up. China economic weekly reporter had took new route roaming Japan, found except TRANS-Kanto, and Kansai, connection Tokyo and Osaka of East Road new route passenger has guarantees outside, other as Sanyo, and Northeast, and Shang more, and North land, Hou built line attendance are very low, often a car within only has one or two bit passengers, fare slightly high of "retained seats" seat more is needy wanted.

　　Construction cost down?

Due to the high speed rail itself can stimulate local economic development, promoting the balanced geographical pattern, which belongs to the State strategic planning, although high speed rail in the Midwest were made at a loss for the time being, but on July 20, issued by China's national development and Reform Commission of the medium-and long-term railway network plan (2016-2025), China's high-speed rail network is "four vertical and four horizontal" upgrade to "eight longitudinal and eight lateral".

It is reported that by 2020, the mileage is expected to reach 30,000 kilometers of high-speed rail lines by 2025, mileage will reach 38,000 km of high-speed rail lines by 2030, high-speed rail network connecting provincial capitals and other cities of more than 500,000 people, achieve 1-4 hours between the adjacent cities of City Circle, became a top priority in the Midwest.

Behind the high loss of nature there is a high input of account. Then, over the next 10 years, is it possible to change high-speed rail projects often exceeds the situation? According to the reporter, had built the line, capital cost often exceeds initial projections. 2004 China approved by the State Council in the Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger dedicated railway feasibility report shows, when the construction of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway will cost 93 billion yuan. Coordination of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway early preparations for the meeting, said investment had risen to 116.6 billion yuan, not including actual capital chasing parts.

Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail project proposals in the budget of 160 billion yuan, is overweight in the feasibility study to the 220.9 billion yuan. Beijing-Tianjin high-speed rail investment, after up to 300 km/h, the original budget rose eventually exceeded 20 billion yuan.

"From the world-wide, high-speed rail has little precedent of absolute profits, actually from the aspects of civil engineering and vehicle cost estimates has been low by international standards, foreign high-speed rail cost of domestic high-speed rail cost 2 to 3 times. "In this regard, the railway Ministry official told the China economic weekly reporter said.

According to the source, compared to Germany Cologne Frankfurt line/km about 300 million yuan of the cost and Korea opened in 2004 high-speed railway subgrade/km cost 250 million Yuan, the cost of high-speed rail in China has a great competitive advantage,/km only 150 million Yuan.

But reporters also noted that high speed rail projects in the past a grey area of corruption, is an unavoidable reality. Audit had has official audit results displayed, Beijing Shanghai high-speed rail 1, and 4 standard paragraph, and Shanghai HongQiao station, and Tianjin West station for exists not by provides adjustable reduction engineering pricing, and Super range adjustable increased since purchased material price, problem, more meter engineering paragraph total 137 million Yuan; Beijing Shanghai company will railways economic planning Institute is responsible for of general reference figure dynamic track and technology service work in the of part content, repeat delegate to in the iron design Advisory Group Limited, increased has engineering cost 22 million Yuan.

According to statistics, at present there are 25 companies listed on the a-share market the company's main business areas involved in high-speed rail, its executives often comes from direct railway, and some also have positions in the railway system.

As anti-corruption storm sweeps, future high-speed rail construction costs might also become more "economic", which would source for high-speed rail "burden" to improve its profitability.

Responsible editor: Kun Qu SN117

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中国高铁盈利地图：东部赚大钱，中部、西部亏|高铁_新闻资讯

《中国经济周刊》视觉中心 首席摄影记者 肖翊 摄



沪宁高铁、宁杭高铁2015年净利润分别达到6.41亿元、1.01亿元。CFP

　　《中国经济周刊》 记者 劳佳迪|上海报道

　　（本文刊发于《中国经济周刊》2016年第30期）

　　即使在“铁路第一大国”美国，高铁也一直是敏感话题。奥巴马上任不久便在国情咨文中抛出划拨数百亿美元的诚意，却招来共和党和土地私人所有者们大投反对票，其中一个重要原因就是修不起——直到2015年，全美第一条高铁才在加州破土。

　　同一时间，曾因为成本高企导致亏损争议的中国高铁已经进入了盈利周期。官方口径长期讳莫如深的运营成绩单近日露出端倪：去年京沪、沪宁、宁杭、广深港、沪杭、京津6条高铁账面利润为正，除了京津高铁外，其余线路都在运行5年之内实现扭亏，去年净利润65.8亿元的京沪高铁更被誉为全球最赚钱高铁。

　　事实上，世界上公认收支平衡或盈利的高铁线路仅有两条：1964年通车的日本东海道新干线与1981年通车的法国巴黎—里昂TGV东南线。法国高铁在1995年依然陷于巨亏，甚至拖欠工资造成长达3周的铁路工人罢工。

　　不过，尽管国内部分高铁实现盈利的速度只有东海道新干线可堪媲美，但仍然有许多高铁无法打破亏损的局面。据《中国经济周刊》记者了解，郑西、贵广、兰新、成贵、南广、兰渝等多条中西部高铁线路都在亏损，有的甚至距盈利遥遥无期。

　　“人口红利”成盈利关键

　　东部沿海地区的高铁线正在成为最大的利润“奶牛”。京沪高铁当初的预期是，5年建设周期，加上运营5年，逐渐达到盈亏平衡，之后再用14年还本付息。在经历连续两年以10亿为单位计的亏损后，2013年甚至有市场传言称，京沪高铁的第二、三大股东，平安资产管理公司和全国社保基金理事会还曾提出过退股要求。

　　但就在2014年，京沪高铁的日均发送超过了29万人次，高铁客票收入约300亿元，已经逼近盈亏平衡点，去年这条汇集全国高铁八分之一旅客人数的路线更是取得重大突破，全年斩获了高达近66亿元的净利润，一举成为铁路总公司手里最值钱、最优质的资产。

　　长三角区域的高铁普遍盈利能力突出。《中国经济周刊》记者从持有沪宁高铁17%股份的江苏交通控股公司财报上看到，连接上海和南京的沪宁高铁也是在2014年扭亏为盈，净利润1.42亿元，去年利润进一步扩大，达到了6.41亿元；宁杭高铁则在2014年亏损3.8亿元后，同样在去年迎来利润拐点，净利润1.01亿元；而据铁路总公司原副总经理胡亚东透露，建设长度较短的沪杭高铁目前也已经实现盈利。

　　这与上述高铁沿线的人口密度息息相关。比如京沪高铁纵贯北京、天津、上海三个直辖市，以及河北、山东、安徽、江苏四省，连接环渤海和长江三角洲这两大最发达、城市化进程最快的经济区，沿线人口占全国总人口的26.7%，过百万人口的城市占了11个。沪宁、沪杭、宁杭三条高铁则是贯穿了中国城市群最密集、生产力最发达的长三角核心区域。

　　另两条率先盈利的高铁线同样演绎着“人口红利”的逻辑。以去年盈利1.77亿元的广深港高铁为例，香港段尚未开通，但在已经连接珠三角两大灵魂城市的骨干线路上，深圳和沿途设站的东莞都是人口流动大市。根据第六次人口普查结果显示，10年间广东省人口净流入人数约为2062万，排名全国第一，最有吸引力的城市便是广州和深圳。

　　2008年就开通的京津高铁是国内首条高铁客运专线，120公里长的铁路线也连接着北京和天津两个举足轻重的北方城市，辐射的经济圈人口数量过亿。虽然没有京沪高铁那样低负债率的优势，据中铁隧道集团副总工程师王梦恕介绍，目前这条“明星线路”也是盈利状态。

　　中西部高铁运营普遍惨淡

　　与东部经济发达地区的高铁相比，国家在中西部地区建设的高铁线却是冰火两重天。《中国经济周刊》注意到，早在2010年1月就投入运营的郑西高铁（郑州—西安）比京沪高铁更早面世，盈利能力始终堪忧。按照郑西高铁当时的可行性研究报告，在繁忙区段2010年每天开行59对高铁动车组、2018年每天125对、2028年每天177对。然而，如今郑西高铁每天仅开行30对左右高铁动车组，非但没有递增，连6年前的计划都大打折扣，上座率更是不足五成。在运营两年后，铁总曾披露过，由于这条高铁线亏损14亿元，拖累原本盈利4亿元的郑州铁路局亏损10亿元。

　　穿越了国内最长喀斯特地貌的贵广高铁盈利情况也不容乐观。据了解，贵广高铁总投资918.19亿元，其中50%为本金，50%为10年期贷款。贵广铁路有限责任公司董事长、总经理张建波曾公开坦言，即使以6.6%的基本利息计算，一年还给银行的利息就要30亿元。而贵广高铁开通后，车票收入一年才10亿元，还不算水电、人工服务、零件损耗、维护等费用，亏损运营属意料之中。

　　同样惨淡经营的恐怕还有耗资1435亿元的兰新高铁（兰州—乌鲁木齐），虽然全线设有39个站，但从兰州到乌鲁木齐人口密度不断递减，新疆段穿越的更是举世闻名的内陆四大戈壁风区，风速最大时为60米/秒，这令建设成本大增。目前兰州到乌鲁木齐每天仅开行5对动车组，只有兰州到西宁这条用时一个多小时的短途线路开行了较多对动车组，收回成本亦是遥遥无期。

　　多位对铁路网有研究的人士都认为，高铁盈利与否最关键的支点还是沿线城市人口密度、经济发达程度所带来的客流量提升。记者注意到，2014年世界银行曾有调查显示，2013年中国高铁乘客出行目的多是商务和休闲，在长吉城际（长春—吉林）高铁上，乘客平均月入4300元，普通列车仅为3200元；天津—济南段高铁的乘客月入6700元，高于普通列车的4500元，说明高铁乘客多是收入较高的人群。

　　这种地域间不平衡的情况在城镇化率超过90%的日本也同样成立。《中国经济周刊》记者曾搭乘新干线漫游日本，发现除了横贯关东、关西，连接东京和大阪的东海道新干线客流有保障外，其他如山阳、东北、上越、北陆等后建线路上座率都非常低，常常一个车厢内仅有一两位乘客，票价略高的“保留席”座位更是乏人问津。

　　建设成本为何难降？

　　由于高铁本身可以拉动当地经济发展，推进趋于平衡的地缘格局，属于国家统筹战略布局规划，尽管中西部高铁暂时都是赔本赚吆喝，但在7月20日中国国家发展改革委员会印发的《中长期铁路网规划》（2016—2025年）中，中国高铁网目前的“四纵四横”依然升级为“八纵八横”。

　　据悉，到2020年，高铁线路里程预计将达到3万公里；到2025年，高铁线路里程将达到3.8万公里；到2030年，高铁网将基本连接省会城市和其他50万人口以上的大中城市，实现相邻大中城市之间1~4小时的城市圈，中西部地区成为重中之重。

　　高亏损的背后自然有一笔高投入的账。那么，在接下去10年中，有没有可能改变高铁项目屡屡超标的情况？据记者了解，就已经建成的线路来看，建设成本往往超出最初的预计。2004年中国国务院批准的 《武广铁路客运专线可行性报告》中显示，当时武广高铁建设成本为930亿元。但到了武广高铁前期筹备协调会议上，透露的投资额却涨到1166亿元，还不包括实际投资额追涨的部分。

　　京沪高铁项目建议书中的预算为1600亿元，在可行性研究报告中则加码到了2209亿元。而京津高铁投资额也在时速提升到300公里后，原先的预算大涨，最终突破200亿元。

　　“从全世界范围看，高铁都鲜有绝对盈利的先例，实际上中国从土建和车辆两个方面的成本来估算，已经大大低于国际水平，国外高铁造价是国内高铁造价的2至3倍。”对此，原铁道部一位官员对《中国经济周刊》记者说。

　　据该位人士介绍，相比于德国法兰克福科隆线约3亿元/km的造价和韩国于2004年通车的高铁路基2.5亿元/km的造价，国内高铁的造价具有较大的竞争优势，一般仅为1.5亿元/km。

　　但记者也注意到，过去高铁项目存在灰色腐败地带，也是不容回避的现实。审计署曾有官方审计结果显示，京沪高铁1、4标段，以及上海虹桥站、天津西站因存在未按规定调减工程计价、超范围调增自购材料价格等问题，多计工程款共1.37亿元；京沪公司将铁道部经济规划研究院负责的通用参考图动态跟踪和技术服务工作中的部分内容，重复委托给中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司，增加了工程成本2200万元。

　　据统计，目前A股市场上共有25家上市公司主营业务涉足高铁领域，其高管往往出自铁路嫡系，有些还曾在铁路系统身居要职。

　　随着反腐风暴的席卷，未来高铁的建设成本或许也会变得更“经济”，这将从源头为高铁“减负”，改善其盈利水平。

责任编辑：瞿崑 SN117

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