Experts talk about the South China Sea "overload": I would lie here watching over you
The morning of August 8, United States Pacific fleet "Fude" destroyer docked at Qingdao port and began a 5-day goodwill visit to Qingdao. United States Navy Pacific fleet commander Scott · Swift arrived here on the same day, participate in "Ford" visits.
Compare Nanhai arbitration case before the results are released July 12, China and the United States both tense situation, arbitration cases coming out of the South China Sea Sea Breeze is blowing, the coconut palms swaying is somewhat unexpected.
"China has permanently altered the strategic situation of the South China Sea. "National Defense University Professor Qiao Liang and Wang xiangsui at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Professor surging journal (www.thepaper.CN), said in an interview.
South China Sea, China can win
Qiao Liang and Wang xiangsui at on July 30, with its famous military theory work overrun wars made the statement on the recent launch of the Chinese version.
In the eyes of Qiao Liang and Wang xiangsui at, with the reclaimed land of China in the South China Sea and the completion of the construction work, the islands of the South China Sea over a large number of unfit for human habitation has become habitable, it means strategic frontier deeper into the South China Sea, China has promoted more than 1500 kilometers. The completion of strategic infrastructure such as airports, ports, given China doesn't have to fear from the United States any military threat, capabilities.
In fact, in the South China Sea Arbitration result will be announced the same day, the Chinese Government has expropriated CAAC flight inspection center of an "Cessna" CE-680 respectively on the Spratlys Reef and zhubi reef new airport successfully implemented a check flight. Air force expert Wang said in an interview with CCTV's focus today, checking flight explains the success of the airport had already been using the conditions exist, the navigation system has to work, China has achieved stage of reef-building goals.
To enhance the control of the South China Sea, China has also been recognized across an ocean. United States well-known think tank RAND Corporation, according to a recent report issued by the end of July, with the city, the people's Liberation Army, China's military capability increased, once the United States war with China, despite China's loss is potentially worse than the United States, but they are not able to ensure the direction of war according to the US military expected, the Americans may not be able to achieve a decisive victory.
Air Force spokesman Shen Jinke said on August 6, air force organization blew -6K and Su-30 warplanes, as well as a number of other aircraft, airspace carried out combat patrols near the Spratly Islands and Scarborough. This is China's air force in less than a month's time in the second combat cruise in the South China Sea airspace, also show that China in the South China Sea to conduct routine military drills and patrols of determination.
"The South China Sea provoked the war, China will be able to win the war. "Naval Assistant to the Chief of staff of the Senior Colonel Zhang Shaobing July 30 at the National Defense University of China at the" strong military policy "Conference at the sidelines of Ta Kung Pao reportage interview said.
Around China, the silent
As early as 17 years ago, Qiao Liang, major general and Professor Wang xiangsui at the overrun has to show the world the Chinese war an anticipation of the future: the future of war is beyond the original military war boundaries and limits will be extended to the network, finance, terrorism and other (non-military) field.
According to "overrun" theory, Qiao Liang and Wang xiangsui at say, United States around China had done for deployment and operations, were part of a silent war.
Wang xiangsui at said: "the South China Sea dispute, it is Chinese and one of the few Southeast Asian countries common ocean issues. And in 2002, the Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea has for the solution of this problem provides a normal path. ”
However, the United States in 2012, urged the Philippines to provoke the "huangyan Island event" will solve the problem of the South China Sea with a direction. United States without firing a shot, but greatly influenced since the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area, China and cooperation among ASEAN countries to curb China's influence in the region grows.
In this regard, Qiao Liang said this is not a United States in China for the first time tried to when developing regional cooperation with neighboring countries, which certainly won't be the last.
Since July, the United States and South Korea announced in Korea to deploy "Sade" since the missile defense system, China and Korea Relations has faced great challenges. Experts on Korean peninsula issues at Fudan University Professor Shi Yuan hua, told reporters, "Sade" to enter South Korea, mainly United States play a leading role. United States Korea people's fear of North Korea's missile and nuclear capabilities, "Thad" advanced missile performance will stimulate China's nerves.
It is interesting, "Sade" in Han China and the Korea free trade agreement enters into force less than a year, and the United States promoted TPP (trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) at the time.
Inaction, advisable for the
On July 25, Chinese and ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a joint statement explicitly: the commitment of the parties concerned in accordance with the principles of international law, including the Convention, by the sovereign States directly concerned through friendly consultations and negotiations in a peaceful way to resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes, rather than resorting to force or the threat of force.
Wang xiangsui at say, this actually makes the process of parties in the South China Sea dispute back to the 2002 Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea to the track, mark instigated by contrary to the Declaration of unilateral arbitration farce of the Philippines declared ended. In the present environment, make good use of China's advantages to inaction, will harvest better strategic result.
Another of China's inaction "capital" is: Judging from the outcome of the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers ' meeting, United States the provocative gesture has not received a majority within the domain of national identity – in addition to Viet Nam and the Philippines, or the other ASEAN Nations to deny United States an act beneficial to peace and stability in the South China Sea, or may be wary of ASEAN Division.
United States also recognize that, in just a couple of days, United States Government abandoned the "urged China to abide by the outcome of arbitration" point of view, instead dusted off "the United States position on the South China Sea is not" rhetoric.
So, how China deals with the United States often uses non-military means to stop the development of China "overrun"? At the same time strengthen its regional and global influence, China how to United States appropriate counter?
"The current China, military means are clearly not the best choice, but diplomatic protests and are not very effective, so there is no way out? I think China can also use a variety of non-military instruments of war, or non-military means, to realize their own interests. "Qiao Liang said. "If United States each waving hands-on in the of red cloth, we are followed he restlessness up, this only will let we more easy fall into trap; instead, in sea problem Shang, China can sat hold himself through Island Reef blow fill and harvest of advantage, to static brake, quietly to see with United States out brand, let other put main brand all dumped out, instead will received better of effect. ”
(Editors: Dou Yuan UN833)
2016-08-09 16:46:15
Surging
专家谈南海“超限战”：我就静静地看着你出牌
8月8日上午，美国太平洋舰队的“本福德”号驱逐舰悄然停靠在青岛港码头，开始对青岛为期5天的友好访问。美国海军太平洋舰队司令斯考特· 斯威夫特上将同日乘专机抵达，参加“本福德”号的访问活动。
对比7月12日南海仲裁案结果出炉前中国和美国双方剑拔弩张的局面，仲裁案出炉后南海的海风习习，椰影婆娑显得多少有些出乎意料。
“中国目前已经永久性地改变了南海的战略态势。”国防大学教授乔良和北京航空航天大学教授王湘穗在接受澎湃新闻（www.thepaper.cn）采访时表示。
南海若战，中国能赢
乔良和王湘穗是在7月30日，其著名军事理论著作《超限战》最新的中文版首发仪式上做出上述表态的。
在乔良和王湘穗看来，随着中国在南海的吹填陆域和建设工作的完成，南海大量原本不适宜人类居住的岛礁已经变得适宜人类居住，这意味着中国的战略前沿向南海深处推进了1500多公里。而机场、港口等具有战略性基础设施的完工，则赋予了中国不必畏惧来自包括美国在内的任何军事威胁的能力。
实际上，就在南海仲裁结果公布当天，中国政府征用中国民航飞行校验中心一架“塞斯纳”CE－680型飞机分别对南沙群岛美济礁、渚碧礁新建机场成功实施了校验飞行。空军专家王明志在接受央视《今日关注》采访时表示，校验飞行的成功进行说明该机场已经具备了使用的条件，其导航系统已经能够正常工作，标志着中国的岛礁建设已经实现了阶段性的目标。
中国对南海掌控力的提升也得到了大洋彼岸的认可。美国著名智库兰德公司七月底发布的最新报告中显示，随着中国大陆解放军军事能力的提高，一旦美国和中国开战，尽管中国最终的损失很可能比美国要多，但是美军并不能够确保战争按照美军预料的方向发展，美军不一定能够取得决定性的胜利。
空军发言人申进科8月6日表示，空军组织轰-6K和苏-30战机，同时还有若干其他战机，对南沙群岛和黄岩岛附近空域实行了战斗巡逻。这是中国空军在不到一个月的时间内在南海空域进行的第二次战斗巡航，也表明了中国在南海进行常态化军事演练与巡逻的决心。
“南海若挑起战端，中国一定能打赢战争。”中国海军参谋长助理张少兵大校7月30日在国防大学举行的“强军策”会议间隙接受大公报採访时如是表示。
中国周边，较量无声
早在17年前，乔良少将和王湘穗教授便以一本《超限战》向全世界展现了中国对于未来战争形态的一种预判：未来战争是超出原有的军事界限和限度的战争，将延伸至网络、金融、恐怖主义等（非军事）领域。
根据“超限战”理论，乔良和王湘穗认为，美国在中国周边所做的一切部署和行动，都是一场无声战争的一部分。
王湘穗说：“所谓南海争端，本来是中国和少数几个东南亚国家之间的一个普通的海洋问题。并且，2002年的《南海各方行为宣言》已经为这一问题的解决提供了一条正常的路径。”
但是，美国在2012年怂恿菲律宾挑起了“黄岩岛事件”，将南海问题的解决带偏了方向。美国不费一枪一炮，却极大地影响了中国-东盟自由贸易区成立以来中国和东盟国家之间的合作局面，遏制了中国在区域内影响力的增强。
对此，乔良表示，这不是美国第一次在中国试图与周边国家发展区域合作时从中作梗，当然也不会是最后一次。
自7月份美韩宣布将在韩国部署“萨德”反导系统以来，中国和韩国友好关系已面临极大考验。复旦大学朝鲜半岛问题专家石源华教授对记者表示，“萨德”之所以能入韩，主要是美国所起的主导作用。美国利用了韩国人对朝鲜导弹与核能力的畏惧心理，而“萨德”先进的反导性能必将刺激中国的紧张神经。
有趣的是，“萨德”入韩恰逢中国和韩国自贸协定生效不到一年，且美国大力推动TPP（跨太平洋伙伴关系协定）之时。
以静制动，方为上策
7月25日，中国和东盟各国外长发表联合声明，明确提出：有关各方承诺根据包括《公约》在内的国际法原则，由直接有关的主权国家通过友好磋商和谈判，以和平方式解决它们的领土和管辖权争议，而不诉诸武力或以武力相威胁。
王湘穗表示，这实际上使得各方对南海争端的处理回到了2002年《南海各方行为宣言》的轨道上来，标志着菲律宾违背《宣言》单方面挑起的仲裁闹剧宣告收场。在当下环境中，利用好中国现有的优势，以静制动，会收获更好的战略效果。
中国能够以静制动的另一个“资本”是：从中国和东盟外长会议的成果来看，美国此前的挑衅姿态并未得到大多数域内国家的认同——除越南和菲律宾以外，其他东盟国家或是否认美国的行为有利于南海的和平稳定，或是对东盟分裂的可能表示警惕。
美国也认识到这一点，因此在短短几天之内，美国政府就放弃了“敦促中国遵守仲裁结果”的观点，反而重新拾起了“美国在南海问题上不持立场”的老调。
那么，中国如何应对美国屡屡使用非军事手段遏制中国发展的“超限战”？在不断增强自身区域和全球影响力的同时，中国如何对美国的行为加以适当反制？
“对目前的中国来说，军事手段显然不是最佳选择，但外交抗议又收效不大，难道这样就没办法了吗？我认为，中国还可灵活使用多种非战争军事手段，或者非军事战争手段，来实现自身利益。” 乔良表示。“如果美国每次挥舞动手中的红布，我们都跟着他躁动起来，这只会让我们更加容易落入圈套；相反，在南海问题上，中国可以坐拥自己通过岛礁吹填而收获的优势，以静制动，静静地看着美国出牌，让对方把主牌全部甩出来，反而会收到更好的效果。”
(责任编辑：窦远行 UN833)
2016-08-09 16:46:15
澎湃