China's domestic milk supply and demand contradiction: corporate killing cattle and milk powder to feed the pigs | | contradiction _ raw milk news

In recent years, milk prices across China have layout and build factories in foreign countries, through the integration of high quality milk source of resources, technology and management resources, to make up for the development of the short Board, milk prices chain-wide and international degree and higher. But, reporter recently in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,, and Heilongjiang province, and Hebei province, milk main region research understand to, last year yilai, China milk industry Shang downstream enterprise performance full fell, cow farming industry faced price fell, and Enterprise rejected of double dilemma, not only various farming subject survival difficult, and many processing enterprise also in rejected fresh milk or will fresh milk spray powder store, even has enterprise will fresh milk spray powder Hou sold pig enterprise.

　　Milk prices dairy farmers to reject "the oxen"

Reporters found that dairy-farming industry is facing falling prices, businesses rejected the double trouble, farmers have to raise rate "oxen" exit.

In fact, from the second half of 2015, Chinese milk prices have been low. According to the Sentinel surveillance of agriculture, July 27 10 dairy production such as Inner Mongolia, Hebei province (district) the average price of fresh milk 3.39 Yuan/kg, compared with roughly flat, but 15.2% has been lower than in 2014.

Song Zhen, zhaodong, Heilongjiang province, was once a famous cow town, reporters recently to the interviews, found that dairy is depression. Ruiguang village cattle song Zhen Hu Yuedong told reporters, 2014, the dairy company received milk prices dropped lower and lower, between 2015 and autumn has fallen to 2.5 Yuan per kilogram, down from cattle costs.

"The fall of milk prices this year is ' Cliff ', almost down 0.1 Yuan per month. "Ding United limited quality and technology of animal husbandry in Li guodong, the Minister said. Zhongding 2014 also profits of tens of millions of Yuan, but 2015 loss 91.81 million Yuan, due to the damage caused by the fall in milk prices to 75.07 million Yuan.

Lowered milk prices at the same time, some dairy processing enterprises on farmers limited also accepted and rejected, such as less milk a day for a week, and by the farmers themselves. Even us big enterprises such as animal husbandry also encountered this dilemma. Dr Donald Li, said: "this limit is 500 kg per day, the field limited to 800 kg, add up to 40 or 50 tonnes, 5% per cent of total production. ”

In the "low price" and "reject" dilemma under pressure, some dairy farmers who lack confidence in the future and start improving dairy cow culling rate. According to statistics, several cows, dairy farming province of eliminated up to 25% to 35%, than normal 10%-20%. China dairy industry association, said Gao Hongbin, dairy farmers currently have to be treated as cattle sold, hanging on 8,000 dollars on Internet nobody wanted, "at this stage is probably the most difficult time. ”

The dairy "cold winter" is not only retail, small exit, some are in hot pursuit of the large farming enterprises are also hard to sustain. Song Liang said dairy analyst 2011 exiting farming is mainly retail, from 2012 to 2013 is a farming district, 2014 is medium farmers. Since last year, performance of large-scale farming enterprise also began to drop.

Modern dairy Holdings Limited is China's largest dairy companies, stock more than 220,000 cows more than, the original ' normal rate is between 25% and 30%, has now increased to 34% from 40%. Modern dairy Board Chairman Gao Lina said that now almost all of the large dairy companies are accelerating the Elimination of rate, "raising the dropout rate is equivalent to killing cattle. But turns out to be dairy farmers kill them in obvious, now that companies secretly killed. ”

Gao Lina said that under the current situation, and small scale pasture will be eliminated, then there is a large farming enterprise. If countries do not have policies to support low end of the market and the transition to, and enterprises will face great challenges.

　　Processing loss of milk powder to feed the pigs

Unlike the previous dairy crisis is, the dairy processing enterprises are large losses in the crisis. According to statistics, last year listed 16 dairy enterprises total operating revenue total 154.4 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan in net profit, down 160 million Yuan, declined for the first time in recent years.

Song Liang said, the current domestic milk powder producers have an average of one-third of capacity is idle, and some enterprises operating rate, or even less than 50%. A case study of Heilongjiang feihe dairy limited company in 2015, nearly 7 billion in sales, up while there are still 10%, but well below the 30% 2014.

Dairy processing enterprises is the biggest hidden trouble of milk powder stocks surged, starting from the end of first quarter of 2015 because raw milk purchase amount is greater than the output, light, yili, mengniu, Grand Le Bao and other dairy industry top ten enterprise in fresh milk into milk storage, most long day will spray more than 1000 tons. Gao Lina said, "from last year to this year, one of the most popular business is powder coating plant. Powder is equal to milk. ”

Earlier this year, a large agriculture groups about 240 tonnes per day of milk powder, accounted for about 20% of the acquisition. The agriculture Group Deputy General Manager said, of which 200 tonnes to 1.5 Yuan to 1.8 Yuan sold to other processing enterprises, and another 40 tons can only be sold at a lower price to pig enterprises.

"Currently there are 5% to 20% excess milk. "Li Shengli, Chief Scientist of the national dairy industry technology system said normal inventory should be below 100,000 tons of milk powder in China, but the current estimate is about 400,000 tons. Spray a ton of milk costs about 36000 Yuan, but can only be sold to approximately 16000, or spray powder losses of nearly 20,000 yuan a ton.

　　Advocacy to promote consumer policy inventory

Experts believe that, at present, low milk prices and milk prices even lower than the cost of most countries, China. Milk prices should bottom out in the future, when China's medium to large ranch will also ease the difficulties encountered, the key is to guard against excessive losses and bankruptcies in the industry.

China's dairy industry in 2008, after the melamine scandal, appeared for the first time the entire value chain, including the large phenomena of massive losses. Grass-roots view, long-term losses or bankruptcy if too many leading enterprises, China's dairy industry, or will again hit in recent years supported the safety of dairy products will also face the risk of failure of the system. At present, most of the enterprises surveyed said they only rely on their own strength to smooth "winter", looking forward to relevant departments to help dairy industry from the following aspects.

The industry believes that in the current situation, relevant departments from the following help dairy "winter".

An advocate for strengthening dairy consumption. Secretary General of China Association of dairy industry Gu Jicheng said difficulty is at the root of the current milk industry downturn in the consumer market. In recent years, China's consumption growth is very slow, has been less than the increases in milk production, or even negative last year, but per capita consumption of dairy products is only half the average level of Asia. Relevant departments should let more people know the benefits of drinking milk, stimulate the consumption of dairy products.

Second, amendments to existing standards of dairy production, increase the amount of milk. Experts say some milk prices on the one hand accept reject limit Chinese-made milk, increase the use of imported milk powder on the one hand "reconstituted milk", inhibit domestic production capacity. Through the revision of standards, enhance detection, appropriate limits "reconstituted milk" live fresh milk to open outlets.

Third, introduced "the dairy industry the poor" temporary Policy Digest stocks of fresh milk and milk powder in the country. Cadre Management College Associate Professor Chen said the Ministry of agriculture, part funded by the Government to buy dairy products to poor areas, reasonable inventory digestion. Because they are not long-term behavior, nor disturb the market order.

Four is the study of appropriate fiscal policies to support development of the industry. Such as aquaculture enterprises or powder storing processing enterprises with appropriate subsidies. In addition, you can also establish national temporary storage of milk powder, milk powder futures trading systems, risk-averse.

Responsible editor: Kun Qu SN117

Article keywords:
Fresh milk conflict between supply and demand

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中国国内奶源供需矛盾加剧：企业杀牛 鲜奶喷粉喂猪|鲜奶|供需矛盾_新闻资讯

　　近几年来，中国各大乳企纷纷在国外布局建厂，通过整合国外优质的奶源资源、技术和管理资源，来弥补发展的短板，乳企的全产业链和国际化程度越来越高。不过，记者近期在内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省、河北省等牛奶主产区调研了解到，去年以来，中国乳业上下游企业业绩全面下滑，奶牛养殖业面临价格下跌、企业拒收的双重困境，不仅各类养殖主体生存困难，而且许多加工企业也在拒收鲜奶或将鲜奶喷粉储存，甚至有企业将鲜奶喷粉后卖给养猪企业。

　　乳企拒收奶 养殖者“杀牛”

　　记者调查发现，中国奶牛养殖业面临价格下跌、企业拒收的双重困境，养殖者不得不提高淘汰率“杀牛”退市。

　　事实上，从2015年下半年起，中国奶价就一直处于低位。据农业部定点监测，7月27日内蒙古、河北等10个奶牛主产省（区）生鲜乳平均价格3.39元/公斤，同比基本持平，但已比2014年下降了15.2%。

　　黑龙江省肇东市宋站镇曾是远近闻名的奶牛大镇，记者近期到该地采访，发现奶业十分萧条。宋站镇瑞光村养牛户胡跃东告诉记者，2014年以来，乳企的收奶价就一降再降，至2015年秋已跌至2.5元/公斤，低于养牛成本。

　　“今年奶价的下跌幅度是‘断崖式’的，几乎是每个月降0.1元。” 中鼎联合牧业有限公司质量技术部部长李国栋说。中鼎公司2014年还能实现利润上千万元，但2015年亏损了9181万元，其中由于奶价下跌造成的损失达到7507万元。

　　奶价下降的同时，部分乳品加工企业也对养殖者限收、拒收，比如一个星期少收一天奶，由养殖者自行处理。即便是中鼎牧业这样的大企业也遭遇了这样的困境。李国栋说：“每天这个场限500公斤，那个场限800公斤，加起来就有四、五十吨，能占到总产量的5%。”

　　在“低价”和“拒收”双重困境的压力下，部分奶牛养殖者对前景缺乏信心，开始提高奶牛淘汰率。据统计，几个奶牛养殖大省奶牛的淘汰率高达25%到35%，比正常水平提高10到20个百分点。中国奶业协会会长高鸿宾说，当前养殖者不得不将奶牛当作肉牛卖，有的挂在网上八千块钱都没人要，“目前这个阶段可能是最艰难的时期。”

　　本次乳业“寒冬”中，不仅是散户、小户退市，一些原来受到各界追捧的大型养殖企业也难以为继。乳业分析师宋亮说，2011年退出养殖业的主要是散户，2012年至2013年是养殖小区，2014年是中型养殖者。从去年开始，大规模养殖企业的业绩也开始下滑。

　　现代牧业集团有限公司是中国最大的奶牛养殖企业，存栏奶牛22万多头，原来奶牛正常淘汰率是25%至30%，现在已经提高到34%至40%。现代牧业董事长高丽娜说，现在几乎所有的大型奶牛养殖企业都在加快淘汰率，“提高淘汰率就等于杀牛。只不过原来是奶农在明面上杀，现在换成企业在暗地里杀。”

　　高丽娜说，现在的形势之下，中小规模牧场一定会被淘汰，接下来就是大型养殖企业。如果国家没有出台政策支持，低迷的行情年底又转不过来，企业将面临巨大的挑战。

　　加工企业亏损 鲜奶喷粉喂猪

　　与前几次乳业危机不同的是，此次危机中乳制品加工企业也大面积亏损。据统计，去年上市16家乳企实现营业总收入合计1544亿元，净利润95亿元，同比减少1.6亿元，近年来首次下降。

　　宋亮说，目前国内奶粉生产企业平均有三分之一的产能是闲置的，有的企业开工率甚至达不到50%。以黑龙江飞鹤乳业有限公司为例，2015年销售额接近70个亿，同比增长虽然仍有10%，但远低于2014年的30%。

　　乳制品加工企业的最大隐患在于奶粉库存激增，从2015年第一季度末起，因为原奶收购量大于生产量，光明、伊利、蒙牛、君乐宝等乳业前十强的企业都在将鲜奶喷成奶粉储存，有的企业最多时一天就要喷粉1000多吨。高丽娜说：“从去年到今年，最火的生意是喷粉厂。喷粉也就等于倒奶。”

　　今年初，国内某大型农业集团每天约有240吨的鲜奶被喷粉，占到收购量的20%左右。该农业集团副总经理说，其中200吨以1.5元至1.8元的价格卖给其他加工企业，另外40吨只能以更低的价格卖给养猪的企业。

　　“目前国内有5%至20%的奶源过剩。”国家奶牛产业技术体系首席科学家李胜利说，国内正常的奶粉库存应该在10万吨以下，但目前估算大概有40万吨左右。喷一吨奶粉的成本大概是36000元，但只能卖到16000元左右，也就是喷一吨粉要亏损近2万元。

　　宣传促消费 政策去库存

　　专家认为，目前世界奶价较低，中国奶价甚至低于多数国家成本。未来奶价应该会触底反弹，届时中国大中型牧场遇到的困难也将会有所缓解，关键是要警惕行业过度亏损和企业破产的情况发生。

　　中国乳业自2008年三聚氰胺事件后，首次出现包括大型企业在内的全产业链大面积亏损现象。基层认为，如果过多龙头企业长期亏损或破产，中国乳业或将再次遭受重创，近年来重点扶持的乳制品安全体系也将面临崩塌的风险。目前，多数受访企业表示仅凭自身之力难以顺利“过冬”，期盼有关部门从以下几方面帮扶乳业。

　　业内认为，在当前形势下，有关部门可从以下几方面入手帮助乳业“过冬”。

　　一是加强乳制品消费宣传。中国奶业协会秘书长谷继承说，当前乳业困难的根本原因还是消费市场低迷。近年来中国消费量增长十分缓慢，一直低于奶产量的增幅，去年甚至出现负增长，但实际上人均奶制品消费量仅为亚洲平均水平的一半。有关部门应让更多民众认识喝奶的好处，刺激乳制品消费。

　　二是修订现行的乳品生产标准，增加鲜奶使用量。专家表示，部分乳企一方面限收拒收中国国产奶，一方面更多地使用进口奶粉生产“复原乳”，抑制了国内产能。可通过修订生产标准，加强检测力度等方式，适当限制“复原乳”，为生鲜乳打开销路。

　　三是出台“奶业扶贫”等临时政策，消化国内的生鲜乳和奶粉库存。农业部干部管理学院副研究员陈瑜说，可由政府出资购买一部分乳制品给老少边穷地区，合理消化库存。因为不是长期行为，也不会扰乱市场秩序。

　　四是研究适当的财政政策支持行业发展。比如给养殖企业或喷粉收储的加工企业适当补贴。此外，还可以建立奶粉国家临储、奶粉期货交易等制度，规避风险。

责任编辑：瞿崑 SN117

文章关键词：
鲜奶 供需矛盾

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