Market rushed to the billions of dollars, why is Twitter so valuable? -Twitter, Alibaba, Twitter-IT information
Summary: in the days of early users away from, microblogging is more valuable. In May last year in the microblogging seems to be showing signs of recovery, Yin Sheng reminded the Microblogs are changing, in November, wrote the Twitter is still $ 5 billion of the probability of the event. In just 9 months since then, weibo market value has risen by 1.6 times, nearly $ 9 billion .
As a microblog users, I rarely log on once my Twitter account: at best, now I only Twitter one of 282 million monthly active users, while five years earlier if I focus on it, like now I'm on the letter I. But this does not prevent micro-blogging will become a good business, even when Twitter not to be optimistic about, and I believe it.
As early as 2013 when Alibaba announced a stake in Twitter, Ali, I wrote an article about the endorsement, Twitter value will reach US $ 60~90 billion after three years, reference to the Twitter and Facebook's valuation, in 2016 I think its value is expected to reach US $ 60~90 billion in the first half.
In light of the expected Twitter for the past four quarters, revenues are expected to exceed $ 300 million, and the actual result is much better than expected, up to 540 million dollars, but as a reference one of Twitter's valuation has dropped sharply. Currently Facebook dynamic Price to Sales Ratio of about 16 times, while Twitter is about 5 times, at a Price to Sales Ratio is 12.5 times times Facebook, Twitter's valuation is up to 30~40 times.
Twitter as a business, is close to Facebook, while it in the form of products like Twitter--Facebook has maintained a revenue and profit growth, while Twitter is not only declining revenue growth rate and are still at a loss--Twitter is becoming evident in sales and earnings trend growth.
In the past quarter, Twitter's revenue grew by 36% to $ 146.9 million, net profit increased from $ 4.2 million in the same period last year to us $ 25.9 million. In the first quarter, revenue growth is somewhat lower, only 24%, but profit also surged--from a loss of $ 3.1 million in the same period last year to a profit of $ 7.1 million. But if the influence of Ali Baba, two of the quarter's revenue growth will probably exceed 50%, much better than the same period last year.
According to the 2013 shareholder agreement, Alibaba in the next three years will be micro-blogging to spend $ 380 million in marketing expenses, and the fact of the matter is, 2013-2015 invested $ 49.14 million, US $ 108 million, respectively, and $ 144 million, respectively, per cent of total revenue that year, and 26% and 30%, but the first two quarters of this year, the ratio plummeted to 9.3% and 8.7%, respectively.
Now don't know what Ali Twitter investment strategy-the cooperation of the two companies had just expired three years – but it was Ali will be micro-blogging one of the main strategic clients, so you can expect adverse effects of Ali is now closer to the worst-case scenario .
Addition a adverse factors of effect also has Digest have almost, that is value-added service income, the items income including has game, and members fee and data open, project , in company just listed Shi, the items business was placed has hopes--2013 and 2014, the items income accounted for all income of proportion are reached has 21%, but then the business experience has delay rose, this year Qian two a quarter, the business contribution of revenue accounted for all revenue of proportion has respectively Xia down to 16.8% And 13.4%.
Twitter's revenue model rely more and more on advertising, which is conducive to the establishment of cost and efficiency advantages, both focused on the advertising model and the experience also includes sales network efficiency, and it is also in line with micro-blogging was a strong media properties, media, advertising is a matter of revenue models.
Instead, value-added service or not micro-Bo at of, or itself may will hurt its as a independent platform of value, and its concern points also and advertising mode different--based on advertising of commercial mode requirements company in content aspects always in led location, and value-added service pursuit of is existing content and flow of variable now, even is input Yu completely different of specific business, this is may makes company missed those on Qian a mode vital of investment, like short video and live.
If will past years as a overall view, micro-Bo does experience has trough, but in past of several quarter, regardless of is from business index also is financial index see, are established has obviously of recovery trend: in on Ali of effect for adjustment Hou displayed, from last year second half of began, micro-Bo of revenue growth began low enterprises stability and rebound, and this year Qian two a quarter is rendering out obviously of heavy back growth track trend.
Business, December 2012 forecast years active users in China and Japan the proportion of active users 48%, 47.6%, and 45%, respectively, show a decreasing trend. The first quarter is a quarter of Twitter users the fastest-growing and coming quarter reflects the user's ability to retain, and in the last two quarters, Twitter's share of Japanese live in months to live are 46% and 44.7%, above 45% and 43.9% in the same period of last year, this is the user active level of evidence.
In May last year in the microblogging seems to be showing signs of recovery, Yin Sheng reminded the Microblogs are changing, in November, wrote the Twitter is still $ 5 billion of the probability of the event, though I was still not sure whether the microblog has signs of bringing the company to the new growth path.
But even so, I still think Twitter market will soon be back to $ 5 billion, and enter the interval probability 60~90 of millions of dollars are also on the rise (if you buy shares in detail blog, you now have 1.6 times times return).
Compared to these external indicators, more profound indicator gives a more powerful, but often overlooked, information, and it is this information made me appear more optimistic than most people: a platform of mainstream value ultimately depends on whether it has value and entry status, and whether it has an alternative.
Although micro-letter with its more effective of social and communications capacity of rise attract has those early of micro-Bo user, but intelligent phone of universal and user of sinking, and 90 and 00 Hou of rise, and micro-Bo strong of to alternative of media property, and micro-Bo timely in vertical content, and short video, and live, field of input, are again defined has micro-Bo as mobile times of user value and entrance status-- efficient created content, and in not specific of user Zhijian established contact, and found and share content of effective way.
Now micro-Bo most core of user, has and I as core user of that times occurred has is big changes, second-tier and the following city of user has accounted for to all user of 70% above, $literal and 90 of proportion over 80% (micro-Bo no to out after the and 00 Hou of proportion, but in also based on interest of network stick there, after the and 00 Hou has over has 60%), this new of generation inter user usually more stressed self, and micro-Bo provides of rich sex and freedom just caters to has this needs, Now it's more like stick, QQ space, and a mixture of traditional micro-blog.
Meanwhile, Twitter's current value and cannot be replaced. China market traditional media of big area Super expected landslide, media concentrated type of supply structure disintegration, personal media big outbreak, this let micro-Bo of value and scarce sex get appeared , and in Twitter main where of United States market, traditional media influence still high, they still is main content supply party, this on has more strong distribution channel of Facebook favourable, even such, in event spread field, Twitter still has better than Facebook's power, precisely because of its decentralized as a news creation and distribution platform value .
So, micro-Bo future of value, on depends on its can keep live this not alternative sex, and on May of new trend made timely response, on like it on short video and live such of new form by do of as --it is not himself to do, but investment has a company to caught this two opportunities, this both get has enough of mechanism flexibility, and avoid has its in products experience aspects of short Board. Its opponents, including micro-credit, QQ, not only stick, as well as emerging content like headlines today, including potential new content portals.
But for a long time in the future, I don't see anyone who can replace the Twitter this location. App has the potential, but it is essentially a closed network of acquaintances, and depending on the network property is an important foundation, which hampered its possibilities of alternative micro-blog at present value. Video advertising has stockpiled enough growth potential for the company, and its pattern of UGC it than aiqi art, traditional video websites such as YouTube potatoes better cost structure.
So, on micro-Bo of valuation also ought to reflected its value status of again established: mutatis mutandis Facebook currently of dynamic city pin rate, give micro-Bo 15~20 times of dynamic city pin rate, this equivalent to 80~110 billion dollars of valuation; another a method is mutatis mutandis day active user of value, currently Twitter each day active user of market about for 90 dollars, and Facebook is over 300 dollars, Taking into account Facebook users has entrenched rather than Twitter, so Twitter more comparable.
If you count the potential takeover value, Twitter will still be more than a $ 20 billion company, which could be worth more than $ 140 per user. Therefore, we can try to Twitter every day active users relatively conservative valuation of US $ 90~110, the corresponding valuation of US $ 110~140 billion.
In both, I prefer the latter, namely the user value index in order to reflect the potential value of Twitter video ads and earning trends--established in accordance with the current earnings growth trend, it soon will be reduced to 100 times times earnings or less. Twitter yesterday closed up $ 12.48% to $ 41.81, worth close to $ 9 billion, but relatively reasonable valuation of US $ 110~140 billion, still 25~55% of space.
Author affirms: content is for reference only, not as a basis for investment decisions, I do not micro-blogging stocks.
Statement : the personal view of the author only, and do not represent information positions IT.
市值冲向百亿美元，微博为何这么值钱？ - 微博,阿里巴巴,Twitter - IT资讯
摘要：在被早期老用户远离的日子里，微博却更值钱了。在去年5月份的《微博似乎出现了复苏的迹象》中，尹生就提醒了微博正在发生的变化，在11月份又写了《 50亿美元的微博仍然是大概率事件》。从那以来的短短9个月中，微博市值已经上涨了1.6倍，接近90亿美元。
作为一个微博老用户，我已经难得登录一次我的微博帐号：充其量，现在的我只能算是微博2.82亿月活跃用户中的一员，而如果早五年，我每天的注意力都在它上面，就像现在我对微信我一样。但这并不会妨碍微博会成为一项好的生意，即便在微博最不被人看好时，我也坚信这一点。
早在2013年阿里巴巴宣布入股微博时，我就曾写过一篇《获阿里背书，微博三年后估值将达到60～90亿美元》，参照Twitter和Facebook当时的估值水平，我认为其在2016年上半年估值可望达到60～90亿美元。
按照当时的预期，过去四个季度微博的营收有望超过3亿美元，而实际的结果要远远好于预期，达到了5.4亿美元，但作为参照之一的Twitter的估值水平已经大幅下滑。目前Facebook的动态市销率大约为16倍，而Twitter大约为5倍，而当时Facebook的市销率为12.5倍，Twitter的估值则高达30～40倍。
眼下微博作为一项生意，正在向Facebook靠近，尽管它在产品形式上更像Twitter——Facebook一直保持着收入与盈利的高增长，而Twitter不但收入增长速度处于下降通道，而且仍然处于亏损中——微博正呈现出越来越明显的营收和盈利趋势性增长势头。
在过去的这个季度，微博的营收增长了36%至1.469亿美元，净利润则从去年同期的420万美元增长至2590万美元。在第一季度，营收增长要稍低一些，仅增长了24%，但盈利同样是大幅增长——从去年同期的亏损310万美元变为盈利710万美元。但如果调整掉阿里巴巴因素的影响，两个季度的营收增长可能都会超过50%，大大好于去年同期。
根据2013年的入股协议，阿里巴巴在此后的三个年度中将在微博投入3.8亿美元营销开支，而实际的情况是，2013～2015年分别投入了4914万美元、1.08亿美元和1.44亿美元，分别占到当年全部营收的26%、32.3%和30%，但今年前两个季度，这一比例分别骤然下降到9.3%和8.7%。
目前不知道接下来阿里在微博的投入策略——两家公司的合作刚刚届满三年——但可以肯定的是，阿里仍然会是微博主要的战略客户之一，因此，你可以预期阿里因素的不利影响目前已经接近最糟糕的情况。
另外一个不利因素的影响也已经消化得差不多，那就是增值服务收入，该项收入包括了游戏、会员费和数据开放等项目，在公司刚刚上市时，该项业务被寄予了厚望——2013年和2014年，该项收入占全部收入的比例都达到了21%，但随后该业务经历了滞涨，今年前两个季度，该业务贡献的营收占全部营收的比例已经分别下降到16.8%和13.4%。
微博的收入模式越来越依赖广告，这有利于建立成本和效率优势，这既包括专注于广告模式而带来的相关经验，也包括销售网络的效率，而且它也符合微博身上浓厚的媒体属性，对媒体而言，广告是最理所当然的营收模式。
相反，增值服务要么不是微博擅长的，要么本身可能会伤害其作为一个独立平台的价值，而且其关注点也与广告模式不同——基于广告的商业模式要求公司在内容方面始终处于主导位置，而增值服务追求的是现有内容和流量的变现，甚至是投入于完全不同的具体业务，这很可能使公司错失那些对前一种模式至关重要的投资，比如短视频和直播。
如果将过去几年作为一个整体来看，微博的确经历了低谷，但在过去的几个季度，无论是从业务指标还是财务指标看，都建立了明显的复苏趋势：在对阿里的影响进行调整后显示，从去年下半年开始，微博的营收增长开始低位企稳和反弹，而今年前两个季度则呈现出明显的重回增长轨道趋势。
就业务而言，2012年～2015年12月月活跃用户中国和日本活跃用户的比例分别为48%、47.6%、45.9%和45%，呈现逐年下降的趋势。一般第一个季度是微博用户增长最快的一个季度，而接下来的一个季度则反映出用户留存的能力，而在过去两个季度，微博的日活占月活的比例分别为46%和44.7%，高于去年同期的45%和43.9%，这是用户活跃程度提升的证据。
在去年5月份的《微博似乎出现了复苏的迹象》中，尹生就提醒了微博正在发生的变化，在11月份又写了《50亿美元的微博仍然是大概率事件》，虽然那时我仍然不能确定微博已经出现的复苏迹象能否将该公司带向确定的新增长轨道。
但即便这样，我仍然认为微博市值很快会重回50亿美元，而且进入60～90亿美元区间的概率也在上升（如果你在那时买入微博的股票，那么现在已经有1.6倍的回报）。
相比这些外在的指标，一些更为深层次的指标则可以给出更加有力、但通常很容易被忽略的信息，而正是这些信息让我表现得比一般人更为乐观：一个平台的价值从根本上看取决于它是不是拥有主流的价值认知和入口地位，以及是否具有不可替代性。
虽然微信凭借其更有效的社交和通信能力的崛起吸引了那些早期的微博用户，但智能手机的普及以及用户的下沉、90和00后的崛起、微博浓厚的难以替代的媒体属性，以及微博适时在垂直内容、短视频、直播等领域的投入，都重新定义了微博作为移动时代的用户价值和入口地位——高效创建内容，并在不特定的用户之间建立联系、发现和分享内容的有效方式。
现在微博最核心的用户，已经与我作为核心用户的那个时代发生了很大变化，二线及以下城市的用户已经占到全部用户的70%以上，80后和90的比例超过80%（微博没有给出90后和00后的比例，但在同样基于兴趣的网络贴吧那里，90后和00后已经超过了60%），这个新的代际用户通常更强调自我，而微博提供的丰富性和自由度恰好迎合了这种需求，现在它更像是贴吧、QQ空间和传统微博的一个混合体。
同时，微博目前的价值又具有不可替代性。中国市场传统媒体的大面积超预期滑坡，媒体集中式的供给结构解体，个人媒体大爆发，这让微博的价值和稀缺性得到显现，而在Twitter主要所在的美国市场，传统媒体影响力仍然较高，它们仍然是主要内容供给方，这对拥有更强分发渠道的Facebook有利，即便这样，在事件传播领域，Twitter仍然拥有比Facebook更强的威力，这恰恰是因为其作为一个新闻的去中心化创建和分发平台的价值有关。
所以，微博未来的价值，就取决于其能否保持住这种不可替代性，并对可能的新潮流做出及时响应，就像它对短视频和直播这样的新形式所做的那样——它并不是自己去做，而是投资了一家公司去抓住这两个机会，这既获得了足够的机制灵活性，又避免了其在产品体验方面的短板。而它的对手，不仅包括微信、QQ、贴吧，也包括今日头条这样的新兴内容应用，还包括潜在的新的内容入口。
但在未来的相当长时间内，我看不到有谁能替代微博的这一位置。微信拥有这样的潜力，但它本质上是一个基于熟人的封闭网络这点，而且视这种网络属性为重要的生存基础，这妨碍了它替代微博目前价值定位的可能性。而视频广告又为公司储备了足够的增长潜能，并且其UGC的模式让它拥有比爱奇艺、优酷土豆这样的传统视频网站更好的成本结构。
因此，对微博的估值也理应体现其价值地位的重新确立：比照Facebook目前的动态市销率，给予微博15～20倍的动态市销率，这相当于80～110亿美元的估值；另一种方法是比照日活跃用户的价值，目前Twitter每个日活跃用户的市值大约为90美元，而Facebook则超过300美元，考虑到Facebook拥有的用户地位牢固性不是微博所能比的，因此Twitter更具有可比性。
如果算上潜在的被收购价值，Twitter仍然会是一家200亿美元以上的公司，其每个用户的价值可能会超过140美元。因此，我们可以尝试给予微博每个日活跃用户90～110美元的相对保守估值，对应的公司估值为110～140亿美元。
在两个指标中，我更倾向于后者，即用户价值指标，以反映微博视频广告的潜在价值，以及盈利趋势的确立——按照目前的盈利增长趋势，其市盈率很快也会下降到100倍以内。微博昨天收盘上涨12.48%至41.81美元，市值接近90亿美元，但相对110～140亿美元的合理估值，仍然有25～55%的空间。
作者申明：内容仅作参考，不作为投资决策之依据，本人不持有微博股票。
声明：本文仅代表作者个人观点，不代表IT资讯立场。