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published in(发表于) 2016/8/16 20:47:45
Oxford University historian: reshaping the world in China, the western end of era

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Oxford University historian: China to remake the world in the West end of era

United Kingdom famous historian Dr bide·fulankepan as senior fellow at Worcester College, University of Oxford, Director of the Center for Byzantine studies, University of Oxford, often writing in the mainstream Western media. Pictured here: the new Silk Road: a history of the new world.

"Global times, stationed in United Kingdom freelance journalist Sun Wei" Editor's Note: "silk road rehabilitation. "United Kingdom Bloo ' Bloomsbury Publishing Director of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine studies, University of bide·fulankepan book Silk Road: a history of the new world, have recently raised great concern in the West, including translations also reported will be published officially. In the view of the Western historians, in the history of the Silk Road, you can look for changes in China's shadow, we can see that countries along the rise and fall of powers law. By the ancient and the modern, fulankepan in the book talked about China's "along the way" program, recently at the University of Oxford, told the global Times newspaper said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua, from setting up when there are structural problems in the West, the "along the way" are trying to predict and define the future of the world, the proactive approach is "the best response, smart politics."


  Not only from the perspective of Western history


GT: you wrote in the Silk Road: tracking the silk road of civilization: strong long before in the West, Asia access to connect peoples and places together. When did you begin to study the "Silk Road"? Fulankepan: I am from childhood is curious about the world and learn about the Silk Road for the first time when I was only seven or eight years old. I wrote in the book Alexander the great's links with China, and China and Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean regional trade, the history, I am interested for years. I don't suddenly want to begin to study the Silk Road at a particular time, only because it was part of my life.  I enjoy learning about different cultures, speak different languages, how to understand each other, how to trade, borrow, competition and learn from each other. English titles in the "Silk Road" is plural, because more than one of the Silk Road, cities along the Silk Road and many. My visit to China, China is changing, and it's not just things of the past 30 years. Throughout its history, China has been experiencing a rebirth and growth. GT: when you tell the history and current situation of countries along the Silk Road, you mentioned the "roads of faith" and "road to change" and "road to peace", also talked about here are "the golden path" and "Imperial road", "the road to war," "road to hegemony" and so on. Why you stressed that the West can no longer ignore the "Silk Road" historical status, stress can no longer ignore the non-western areas of the world and mankind's contribution? Fulankepan: why do we study history? Mark Twain once said: "history does not repeat itself, but there is a striking resemblance". You can learn from the history, understanding transitions of power, knows how to deal with the crises and challenges, why success or failure. Understand the history of Asian countries, I must mention another saying: "history is written by the victors. "While China, India, and Iran and Russia had a great history, but we can say that we have been in the last three hundred or four hundred years" European era. " More than 100 years ago, from which the country has more than 80% of goods loaded on United Kingdom ships. Part of my book is to explain why the past three hundred or four hundred years in Europe became important, and before that at the edge of Europe and Eurasia in an important position. 1000 years ago, not to study in Oxford and Cambridge, since almost all the Learning Center in Asia. Even 500 years ago, China, India, Central Asia, and Egypt has a more powerful learning center.  But the world is changing, and because of this, clear political and economic power to Asia is not new or revolutionary, but a return to the past is necessary. Borrow this book and I would like to say that the rise of Asia is not the awakening to sleep for more than 2000 years later, but history has shaped all of Asia, including the initial rise in Europe and Asia about. In my opinion, we need a more comprehensive understanding of world history. Asia's rich history, they have a fundamental place in the history, but in the "European era" was ignored. To cite an example, in the Oxford University Museum of natural history's greatest statues of 27 scientists, but none of them come from non-European countries. This also reflects our view of history from the perspective of the West.


"Along the way" in shaping the future of the world GT: you have Western readers about China today "along the way" of great significance. "Along the way" involved countries in cultural, religious, ethnic, political systems are different, why the advocates can play a unique role in China? Fulankepan: our relationship with neighbouring countries often have very complex. We spend a lot of time dealing with them, but they are probably the most trouble people, also has the potential to be the best way to help our people. Neighbours need to trust each other with different linguistic and cultural backgrounds in order to build good relations. This is not an easy thing. If you are confident enough, you won't mind them and you can't wear the same clothes, believe in different religions and eat different foods. In fact to learn from them, you will become stronger. It can be said that the worst thing people are fighting each other, and the best ability is cooperation and communication.


China for the 21st century, "along the way" the grand strategy highlights China's desire to understand the world, it is important for China to maintain its economic growth. I learned a lot in the past 6 months the rise of big cities in China, in order to maintain the development of big cities, China needs to secure access to energy, resources, food, maintenance of good relations and neighbours. "Along the way" emphasizes the "cooperation" and "collaboration", China not only on its own interests, but taking into account the interests of other countries. This is a very positive response to the world around and enlightened manner. It's like if you have a marble made of gold and a large House, but your neighbor is down and out, then this will cause problems. The best solution is to take out some money to ensure that the entire "community" is prosperous, this is in line with their long-term interests. For China, too.


XI Jinping proposed "along the way" is very helpful to China's long-term economic development, but also to maintain the stability of the entire region. If China becomes more and more powerful rich and around other countries have developed very well, so China is not necessarily a good thing. "Along the way" this search infrastructure, government-level cooperation, the granting of loans to help development of models of other countries, are very healthy and correct. For many years, "along the way" of countries involved in trying to find a way to share ideas related to security, intelligence and counterterrorism. And we have heard in recent months at the European tune is very different in Europe recently to discuss how more independent and separate discussion. "Along the way" are trying to predict and define the future of the world: what the world would be the next twenty or thirty years, proactive can help you do the best. This is smart politics. GT: you have in the United States the Huffington Post wrote, "along the way" in leading the trend first and plan for the future, and too little time in the West end. Why do you say that? Fulankepan: GDP, Asia is on the rise, many people out of poverty in the past 10 years. As I mentioned, "along the way" in an attempt to shape the world. When talking about the Western world is almost at the end, I am from the historians point to talk about all the cultural and political center ultimately cannot avoid death. I think we have seen--religious fundamentalism header, the frequent problems in the Middle East, and Iran are increasingly active, the development of South Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as China's growing ambitions – these are the shift brought about by the changes in the world. Russia and Turkey the two key state between East and West, devoting more attention to the East, this is not a coincidence.


Asia's future looks more promising than in the West, there is a structural problem in Europe. About United Kingdom from the European Union, the European Union disintegration, more attention to self and other contemporary European phenomenon in a way somewhat similar to a period and the Roman Empire. When the 34th century AD, had a similar description: once upon a time, the Roman Empire is so powerful, the Romans scattered around the world, guarding their borders (the United Kingdom had done so), but now, people put the time at Bath Spa, people are talking about the most popular celebrity, no one talked about which General people working or those running the Empire. Collapse of the Roman Empire is a slow and gradual process. It can be said that Rome 2000 years ago has its own "along the way", when all the nodes are interconnected--"can get the resources you need, promoting economic growth and got along well with his neighbors"--what I call the "three principles", which are required for any country in history.


Now is the scale of the changes. More than 100 years ago, 1/4 of the world from the United Kingdom control. After World War two, United Kingdom began to decline. United Kingdom like the Roman Empire, from the 18th century onwards the territory a little bit all over the world join together to form the Empire, can be said that this is the United Kingdom version of "along the way". Thirty or forty years ago, you set sail from London to China without even leaving United Kingdom territory, such as via West Africa, Cape Town, Kenya to Hong Kong, Mumbai, Sri Lanka. Even on land, United Kingdom in Russia, the Middle East includes trading posts. Now, however, such a network has gone. GT: "along the way" for countries and regions, China's significant investment in change is what? Fulankepan: if I was (China), Adviser to the Government, then I would suggest that the Government should be realistic, because not every investment to meet expected, and some may be much more than expected. We live in a changing world, the United Kingdom out of the results of the EU referendum will affect China in the United Kingdom overall investment, while the United States election is bound to affect global. As investors say, if you invest a lot of money, then you will not every three months to follow up with results, you need to have a long term view. But over the years, Western countries seem to have a big weakness is not good at long-term planning, follow a five-year cycle of Government. If you like China have more long-term planning, then success will be easier. China's "along the way" is of strategic importance to the correct,, followed in a period of growth seek to build future-oriented relations "power mode". Difficulties facing China is how to deal with potential problems, especially in the case of changes to speed up. When faced with powerful neighbouring countries, small countries find it hard to resist. China must be very careful not to ask for too much in the negotiations. GT: your conclusion in the book "the new Silk Road" also mentioned that China is building a new, worldwide network, it will make deep prejudices against China and the West. How to eliminate these biases? Fulankepan: this is the next 10 years, China will be faced with the most difficult issues, China every step for defensive reasons, it will be interpreted as aggression and aggression of other countries. It is very dangerous and very important to address that concern. In that case, communication is the only feasible way, explaining what you plan to do some of the things that are necessary. It can be said that with the rise of China, world China both in terms of military, geopolitical or economic, there are many situations that do not match. China can try to prepare and plan, in fact, can do a better job in this regard, China – China does not like criticism, particularly at Government level, but any successful politician, businessman or long-term planning is the first thing to learn is to listen. China is very active in trying to encourage, inspire and help economic growth in other areas, but how will these practices in other countries? China's policy makers need to hear their voices.


"Is not that China is strong, other countries would weaken" gt: you emphasized "the center of the world is the heartland of Asia"? Why special attention in the West China, India and other countries of the rapid development and social change? Fulankepan: development of these countries, full of energy, and the market is very large, there are many opportunities. Europe as a whole very liberal thinking is open, although they may not speak the language of those countries, but Westerners are very interested in those countries, they know enough before. Now the Europeans are interested in and contact with Asia. World like a jigsaw puzzle, an integral part of we are all connected, I wrote at the beginning of the book, globalization is not only in 21st century, humans 2000 years ago, began the process of globalization. Learn history so that we can have another view of our world, exposed to the world in the 21st century, China is not a zero-sum world, is not to say that China is strong, other countries will weaken, but China's strong, stronger in other countries, this is a viable option, because we are connected to each other depending on each other. GT: United Kingdom from the European Union, "the Islamic State" raging, waves of refugees, and United States general election "hot spots" behind global chaos, what do you think about this?


Fulankepan: these hot spots are different, but there are some revealed a problem: social inequality in developed countries are increasing. Inequality means that countries with serious structural problems of our economy. In many European countries, economic growth haven't in the past 10 years, we should consider how to get the economy back on track again, but the change will not happen immediately.


(Editors: Biao Guo UN832)
2016-08-17 07:43:42
The World Wide Web
牛津大学历史学家:中国重塑世界 西方时代终结

  英国著名历史学家彼得·弗兰科潘博士为牛津大学伍斯特学院高级研究员,牛津大学拜占庭研究中心主任,经常在西方主流媒体撰文。图为其新著《丝绸之路:一部新的世界史》。

  【环球时报驻英国特约记者 孙微】编者按:“丝绸之路正在复兴。”由英国布卢姆斯伯里出版社出版的牛津大学拜占庭研究中心主任彼得·弗兰科潘新著《丝绸之路:一部新的世界史》,近日引起西方的极大关注,其中译本据悉也将正式出版。在这位西方历史学家看来,在丝绸之路的历史中,可以找寻中国巨变的影子,可以知道沿线各国权力兴衰的规律。由古及今,弗兰科潘在书中畅谈中国提出的“一带一路”计划,他近日在牛津大学接受《环球时报》记者专访时表示,当出现结构性问题的西方裹足不前时,“一带一路”正在试图预测和定义未来的世界,这种未雨绸缪的做法是“最棒的应对,聪明的政治”。


  不能只从西方视角看历史


  环球时报:您在《丝绸之路》中写道:追踪文明的丝绸之路:在西方强盛以前很久,亚洲的通路就把各国人民和各个地方连接在一起。您从什么时候开始研究“丝绸之路”的?弗兰科潘:我从孩童时代就对世界充满好奇,第一次了解丝绸之路时我只有七八岁。我在书中写到亚历山大大帝与中国的联系,以及中国和中亚、地中海区域的贸易往来,对这些历史,我很多年前就感兴趣。我并不是在某个特定时刻突然想开始研究丝绸之路,只因为这已是我人生的一部分。我喜欢了解来自不同文化、讲不同语言的人如何了解对方,如何贸易、借贷、竞争和相互学习。  英文书名中的“丝绸之路”是复数,因为丝绸之路不止一条,丝绸之路沿线城市也有很多。我到访过中国,中国在不断变化,而且这不只是过去30年里的事情。纵观历史,中国一直在经历重生和成长。环球时报:在讲述丝绸之路沿线国家的历史和现状时,您提到有“信仰之路”“变革之路”“和睦之路”,也谈到这里有“黄金之路”“帝国之路”,有“战争之路”“霸权之路”等。为什么您强调,西方不能再漠视“丝绸之路”历史地位,强调不能再忽略非西方地区对世界和人类的贡献?弗兰科潘:我们为什么要学习历史?马克·吐温说过:“历史不会重演,但总会惊人的相似”。你可以从历史中学习,了解权力更替,知道人们如何应对危机和挑战,为什么成功或失败。至于了解亚洲国家的历史,不得不提另一句名言:“历史是由胜利者书写的。”尽管中国、印度、伊朗和俄罗斯有过伟大的历史时期,但最近三四百年可以说我们一直处于“欧洲时代”。100多年前,从中国运出来的货物超过80%都装上了英国船只。我的书有一部分是解释欧洲最近三四百年为什么变得重要,而此前位于欧亚大陆边缘的欧洲还处在根本不重要的地位。1000年前,人们不会来牛津剑桥学习,因为几乎所有的学习中心都在亚洲。即便是500年前,中国、印度、中亚、埃及等地有着更强大的学习中心。但世界是不断变化的,正因如此,解释清楚政治经济权力向亚洲转移并非全新或革命性的,而是回归到过去曾经的样子就很有必要。  借这本书我想说,亚洲的崛起并不是沉睡2000多年之后的觉醒,而是历史上亚洲一直就在塑造着一切,包括欧洲最初如何兴起也与亚洲有关。在我看来,我们需要更全面了解世界历史。亚洲的历史丰富多元,他们在历史上有着最根本的地位,但在“欧洲时代”却被忽略了。举个例子,在牛津大学自然历史博物馆收藏着历史上最伟大的27个科学家雕像,但没有一个来自非欧洲国家。这也反映出我们看待历史只是从西方的视角出发。


  “一带一路”在塑造未来的世界环球时报:您也给西方读者讲述了今天中国提出“一带一路”的重要意义。“一带一路”涉及到的国家在文化、宗教、种族、政治制度上都有不同,为什么中国的倡导能发挥独特的作用?弗兰科潘:我们和邻国往往有着非常复杂的关系。我们花大量时间与他们打交道,但他们既可能是最能制造麻烦的人,也有可能是最能帮助我们的人。不同语言和文化背景的邻国需要彼此信任,才能建立良好关系。这不是一件容易的事情。如果你足够自信,你不会介意人家和你穿不一样的衣服,信不同的宗教,吃不同的食物。事实上向他们学习,你会变得更强。可以说,人们最糟糕的事情是相互斗争,而最美好的能力则是合作和交流。


  对于21世纪的中国,“一带一路”这一宏大的战略凸显中国了解世界的愿望,对中国保持自身经济增长有重要意义。我在过去6个月了解了很多中国大城市的兴起,为了维持大城市的发展,中国需要确保获得能源、资源、粮食,维持和邻国的良好关系。“一带一路”强调“合作”与“协作”,中国不是只盯着自己的利益,而是同时重视其他国家的利益。这是一个应对周围世界非常积极和开明的方式。这就像如果你有一座大理石和金子做成的大房子,但是你的邻居却穷困潦倒,那么这就会带来问题。最好的办法是拿出一些钱,确保整个“社区”都很繁荣,这才符合自身的长远利益。对中国来说,也是如此。


  习近平主席提出的“一带一路”对中国的长远经济发展非常有帮助,而且能维护整个地区的稳定。如果只是中国变得越来越强大富有,而周边其他国家发展得很不好,那么对中国也未必是好事。像“一带一路”这种寻求基础建设、政府层面进行合作、发放贷款帮助其他国家发展的模式,是非常健康和正确的。多年以来,“一带一路”涉及的国家都在试图寻找解决问题的方法,分享有关安全、情报和反恐方面的想法。这和我们最近几个月在欧洲所听到的论调很不一样,欧洲最近在讨论怎样更独立、讨论分开。“一带一路”是在试图预测和定义未来的世界:未来二三十年世界会变成什么样子,未雨绸缪可以帮助自己做好最棒的应对。这是聪明的政治。环球时报:您曾在美国《赫芬顿邮报》撰文说,“一带一路”在引领风气之先和规划未来,而西方时代几乎已终结。为什么您会这样说?弗兰科潘:从国内生产总值来看,亚洲正在崛起,过去10年有很多人脱贫。我刚才提到,“一带一路”在试图塑造世界。当谈论西方世界几近终结时,我是从历史学家的出发点来谈论,所有的文化和政治中心最终都无法避免衰亡。我认为,我们当下在所看到的——宗教原教旨主义抬头、中东问题频出、伊朗日益活跃、南亚和东南亚的发展,以及中国不断增长的雄心——这些都是世界重心转移所带来的变化。俄罗斯和土耳其这两个介于东西方之间的关键国家,正把更多目光投向东方,这并非巧合。


  亚洲的未来看起来比西方更有希望,欧洲存在结构性问题。有关英国脱离欧盟、欧盟解体、更关注自我等当下欧洲出现的现象在某种程度上和罗马帝国的某段时期有些相似。公元三四世纪时,人们有过类似描述:曾几何时,罗马帝国如此强大,罗马人分散在世界各地,保卫着他们的边境(英国也曾这样),而如今,人们把闲暇时光放在巴斯泡温泉,人们谈论的是最火的明星,没有人谈论哪位将军或是那些为帝国运转辛勤劳作的人。罗马帝国的分崩离析是缓慢渐变的过程。可以说,罗马在2000年前有自己的“一带一路”,当所有的结点都能相互联系——“能获得所需的资源,促进经济增长并与邻居相处很好”——也就是我说的“三点原则”,这在历史上是任何一个大国都需要的。


  当下的变化是规模性的。100多年前,世界的1/4由英国控制。两次世界大战后,英国开始走下坡路。英国曾像罗马帝国一样,自18世纪开始将世界各地的领地一点点连接起来形成帝国,可以说这是英国版的“一带一路”。三四十年前,你从伦敦乘船出发前往中国,甚至无需离开英国领土,比如途经西非、开普敦、肯尼亚、孟买、斯里兰卡到当时的香港。即便是陆地上,英国在俄罗斯、中东都设有贸易站。然而现在,这样的网络已一去不复返。环球时报:对“一带一路”相关国家和地区来说,中国的大量投资最终改变的是什么?弗兰科潘:如果我是(中国)政府的顾问,那么我会建议政府要现实一点,因为不是每一个投资都能满足预期,而有些可能又远远超过预期。我们生活在一个风云变幻的世界,英国脱离欧盟公投的结果会影响中国在英国的整体投资,而美国大选也势必给全球带来影响。正如投资者们所说,如果你投入大量资金,那么你不会每三个月就跟进成果,你需要有长远的眼光。然而这些年,西方似乎有一个很大的弱点便是不擅长长远规划,只遵循五年的政府周期。如果能像中国那样有更长远的规划,那么成功就会更容易。中国提出的“一带一路”是正确的、具有战略意义的,遵循了处于成长期寻求建立面向未来关系的“大国模式”。中国面临的困难将是如何应对潜在的问题,尤其是在变化加快的情况下。当面临强大的邻国时,小的国家很难拒绝。中国必须非常小心,不要在谈判中要求太多。环球时报:您在本书结语“新丝绸之路”中也提到,中国正在建设一张全新的、遍布世界的网络,这自然会让西方对中国的偏见越来越深。中国如何才能消除这些偏见?弗兰科潘:这是中国未来10年将面临的最困难的问题,中国每一步出于防守的考虑,都会被其他国家解读为侵略和好斗行为。这非常危险,消除这种担心非常重要。这种情况下,沟通是唯一可行的办法,解释清楚你计划做的一些事情很有必要。可以说,随着中国的崛起,世界观察中国的角度无论是军事、地缘政治还是经济,都存在很多不匹配的情况。中国可以尽量去准备和计划,事实上中国在这方面能做得更好——中国不喜欢批评,尤其是政府层面,然而任何成功的政治家、商人或长期规划者要学会的第一件事就是倾听。中国正在非常积极地试图鼓励、激发和帮助其他地区的经济增长,但其他国家将如何看待中国的这些做法?中国的政策制定者需要听到他们的声音。


  “并不是说中国强大了,其他国家就会变弱”环球时报:您强调“世界的中心是亚洲的中心地带”?为什么西方学术界特别关注中国、印度等国的迅速发展和社会变革?弗兰科潘:这些国家发展很快,充满活力,而且市场也很大,有很多机会。欧洲整体来说思维是非常开明开放的,尽管人们可能并不会说这些国家的语言,但西方人对这些国家非常感兴趣,以前对它们的了解不够。现在欧洲人想进一步了解和接触亚洲。世界就像是拼图游戏,我们都是相互连接不可或缺的,我在书的最开头就写到,全球化并不是21世纪才有,人类在2000年前就开始了全球化的进程。学习历史让我们换个视角来看待我们的世界,中国在21世纪所接触到的世界不是一个零和世界,并不是说中国强大了,其他国家就会变弱,而是中国强大,其他国家也要强大,这才是可行的方案,因为我们彼此连接相互依存。环球时报:英国脱离欧盟、“伊斯兰国”肆虐、难民潮、美国大选等“热点”背后,显出全球性的混乱,对此您怎么看?


  弗兰科潘:这些热点各有不同,但有的透露出一个问题:发达国家的社会不平等在加剧。不平等严重意味着国家经济层面出现结构性问题。欧洲很多国家的经济在过去10年都没怎么增长,我们应考虑如何让经济重新返回轨道,但是改变不会马上发生。


(责任编辑:郭彪 UN832)
2016-08-17 07:43:42
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