PLA major general discussion on the South China Sea dispute: who dares me three times
With the rising of China's comprehensive national strength, United States faces more and more "how to deal with China" problem. United States some people believed that rely solely on United States single-handedly has been unable to stop the rise of China. In that context, United States tried in China (such as the South China Sea) to create some obstacles in China, to prevent and contain China's development, but both ended in failure. Thus, it was deployed in Northeast Asia Pacific strategic objectives to the anti-missile system. It can be said that China and the United States in the South China Sea, and at Thad's game, is an extension of both power and policy interactions.
Makes clear the United States toward China's strategic thinking, look south and Sadr problems, context is pretty clear--United States think messing around China, the South China Sea and Sade is but a starting point. United States is a manufacturing-led control of international voice player, geo-political strategy is obviously to promote their hidden agenda, is still standing on the moral high ground, the banner of "freedom of navigation" and "preventing nuclear proliferation in North Korea" the guise of trickster.
The South China Sea issue: we have achieved "initial victory"
In the United States, with the United States in China around causing trouble, China must maintain sovereignty. China countered, is likely to intensify with the Philippines, Viet Nam conflict in Southeast Asia. This is China and the United States hands echoed the so-called "tough on China" and "China threat theory" argument. From that point of view, United States on strategic issues to handle very seasoned, this low cost, high efficiency, and "two birds with one stone".
Faced with this situation, China do? To adhere to the principles, the struggle is struggle. We want to expose the United States conspiracies nature, clarify the rights issue is not freedom of navigation in the South China Sea issue, but the problem of China's territory and maritime rights and interests have been violated. We maintain our own maritime rights and interests and territorial, have any reason to be suppressed? You sway to and fro on my doorstep, I would inevitably means, including military force to maintain my dignity, my sovereign.
Moreover, the United States in the South China Sea issue is a bit self-defeating. It thought to arbitration after the release of results, China would bristle, but we so firmly on the attitude, in terms of specific practices and holding moderate extent, coupled with a series of military actions, diplomatic actions, hold completely cool. This is a great victory, and in a way that is "stage victory".
South China Sea now form a relatively stable state. After arbitration results, China and ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a joint statement, saying that "are not presently uninhabited islands, reefs, beaches, sand or other natural structures to take action to live and deal with their differences in a constructive manner." This means that we've done has become a reality, who again did not help, what happens in the future, if in the future who dares in the uninhabited island adopt new action, who would dare to move, I moved three times!
It should be noted that some of our practices are very good in the East China Sea. We have worked with Japanese information issued, if you trouble in the South, in the East China Sea in the future will face the unbearable pressure. Now fulfilled! Japan worried now: in the face of China's unprecedented strength, not counter will be lost forever if the counter, will China send warships in the past? Japan in a "dilemma". Sade question: who deal with China to abide by the rules and don't wayward United States an excuse to engage in "missile defense system", its name is defensive in nature, but in fact deploy Thad both military and technical, is a great challenge for China, on China's strategic nuclear counterattack ability is great, but, even more dangerous is the strategic level issues. United States seeks to turn Korea into his strategic system, causing serious damage to China and Korea, and destruction in China and Japan and South Korea the integration process, which United States will on the military, political, geo-economic benefits are huge.
Some comrades said that China not to United States when, not because "Sade" problem with Korea have damaged relations, I do not agree with this view. You know, in international relations, who destroyed the first principle, who will pay the price. Korea despite China and Korea relations overall, to tie himself to the United States of "chariot", the severely damage China and Korea the political basis of the relations, destroyed the pattern of stability in Northeast Asia. Therefore, I argue that China must adhere to the principle of not only counter, measures to better. We have to relentlessly pressure and not slacken off, be sure to make Korea despair. The Korea "lessons" If successful, the rules also set off--a major issue, who wants to stab a knife chenrenzhiwei hurt China's core interests, it would be worth the candle. If, through to Korea press, forcing it to replace radar, narrows the detection range, the result would be different.
Of course, anti-greater China, Korea pressure, the greater, the more likely its antipathy toward China. But we can't stop doing because it annoyed us. In fact, not only for Korea, including to other countries as well. We want to tell you that deal with China is to have principles, cannot do what he want to do, be careful not too capricious, Headstrong was to smack.
Specifically, for China against Korea's measure, I have the following suggestions: first, political, Korea knows that doing so would hurt bilateral strategic mutual trust. As Permanent Representative, Ambassador Liu JIEYI of China on the Security Council said, the problem is very simple, unhappy China, unable to comply with Korea and the United States desires what the statement. This is just the beginning, which means that if you offend China, who did not lead a better life.
Second, the military. At present, China has been through the relevant channels to Korea signals, that is, if you want to deploy Sade, that your missile bases on the face may be affected, so you must be safe. If Korea makes a final decision, our military will keep up, will be able to make them see, it will be "hard kill".
Third, the economy. Some time ago there were reports, if China were to respond to the deployment of Thad, Korea Tourism, hotels and luxury retailing will usher in the winter. In fact, Korea is most vulnerable to the loss of the Chinese market, loss of China's market and strategic trust in China, Korea would be disastrous. Around strategy: "234" State is most critical in the next ten years, China and United States forces the crucial stage of the game. In particular, "Fourteen-Five", the Chinese economic influence in Asia will be way ahead, on the security of dominance will continue to decrease and the United States the gap, this time China and the United States both the key to psychological adjustment.
At present, the United States is in the midst of a general election. It should be said that Trump, Hillary, or even, who came to power will not change to maintain United States interests ... However, the new United States President's governing style will be different with Barack Obama. Therefore, China strategically, diplomacy must keep a cool head, to catch the United States newly hired, lest we be caught off guard.
For larger strategic layout, how do we do it? In my opinion, China needs to do "two, three or four" work. "Two", refers to the Chinese and United States interaction problems. China and the United States will have conflicts and frictions, but try to control a State without pit bull. "Three", and refers to the three major regions of the three variables, that is, Russia, and India, and Japan. Russia problem, China and Russia are strategic coordinating partnership, India with China is basically in the same stage of development, the two countries are developing their own strategic objectives, while Japan is the most important variable. We should fight, by pressure, work done by a variety of means, do not let Japan completely dead set in the United States, of course, this might be our wishful thinking. "Four" refers to in China and the United States in the course of two masters against, there are four countries is a critical weight: Viet Nam, Indonesia, Korea and Burma. I tell Americans said they were very unhappy: "the United States more than ever before," care "to us, and we do not like before," care "you." With the United States than China Asia with geo-geography, geo-economic strategy and the three major advantages. We now present "along the way", "Asian Investment Bank" strategic direction, if countries can reap the benefits of cooperation with China, and the United States the people do not have access to the benefits of cooperation, slowly, people will naturally think of change as long as we adhere to the road of peaceful development, adhere to the policy of cooperation and win-win, our road will become wider. (National Defense University Professor, a famous Chinese author Yang Yi was military critics of the strategy, based on the author in the World Wide Web sponsored by "senior ambassadors, generals pulse China and United States relations" to speak at the Forum on finishing and finishing/Zhai Yafei)
(Editors: Liu Cheng UN649)
2016-08-17 05:27:32
The World Wide Web
解放军少将谈南海争端：谁敢动一下 我就动三下
随着中国综合国力的不断提升，美国越来越面临着“如何应对中国”的难题。美国有一些人认为，单靠美国一己之力已经难以阻止中国崛起的态势。在此背景下，美国想尽办法在中国周边(如南海)给中国制造一些障碍，以阻碍和遏制中国的发展，可惜均以失败告终。于是，它又把战略目标转向了在东北亚部署亚太反导系统。可以说，中国和美国在南海、在萨德问题的博弈，都是双方力量对比和政策互动的延伸。
搞清了美国的对华大战略思维，再看南海和萨德问题，脉络就相当清晰了——美国想把中国周边搞乱，南海和萨德问题不过是抓手而已。美国是制造并主导、掌控国际话语权的高手，明明是推行自己不可告人的地缘政治战略，却还要站在道德高地，高举“航行自由”、“防止朝鲜核扩散”的幌子招摇撞骗。
南海问题： 我们已取得“阶段性胜利”
在美国看来，随着美国在中国周边制造麻烦，中国必然要维护主权。而中国一反制，就可能激化与菲律宾、越南等东南亚国家的矛盾。这正中国和美国国下怀，呼应了其所谓“中国强硬论”、“中国威胁论”的论调。从这点上看，美国在战略问题上拿捏的非常老道，它这一招成本低，效益高，而且“一石多鸟”。
面对这种情况，中国怎么办？要坚持原则，该斗争就斗争。我们要揭穿美国的阴谋本质，澄清南海问题不是航行自由权益的问题，而是中国的领土和海洋权益受到侵犯的问题。我们维护自己的海洋权益和领土，有什么理由还被压制？你在我家门口晃来晃去，我就必然采取包括军事力量在内的手段来维护我的尊严、维护我的主权。
况且，美国在南海问题上有点弄巧成拙。原来它以为仲裁结果发布后，中国会怒发冲冠，没想到我们在态度上如此坚定，在具体做法上又把行事的程度上握得火候适中，再加上一系列的军事动作、外交动作，完全稳住了阵脚。这是我们巨大的胜利，从某种程度上说是“阶段性的胜利”。
南海现在暂时形成了一种相对稳定的状态。仲裁结果出炉后，中国与东盟国家外长发表联合声明，称“不在现无人居住的岛、礁、滩、沙或其它自然构造上采取居住的行动，并以建设性的方式处理它们的分歧”。这意味着，我们已经做得业已成为现实，谁再反对也无济于事，至于将来怎么办，如果将来谁敢在无人岛礁上采取新建行动，谁敢动一下，我就动三下!
还有一点要指出，我们在东海的一些做法是非常好的。我们曾与日本人发出过信息，如果你在南海捣乱，将来你在东海就会面临着难以承受的压力。现在应验了!日本现在很焦虑：面对中国空前的强势，不反制就要败下去;若反制，中国会不会派军舰过去？日本陷入了“两难困境”之中。萨德问题：跟中国打交道要守规矩 谁也别任性美国借口搞“导弹防御体系”，美其名曰是防御性质，但实际上部署萨德无论从军事上还是技术上，都对中国是一个巨大挑战，对中国的战略核反击能力形成很大的制约，但是，更危险的是战略层面的问题。美国意图把韩国纳入自己的战略体系，严重破坏了中国和韩国关系，还破坏了中国和日本韩一体化的进程，从而美国会在军事上、政治上、地缘经济上都获益巨大。
有些同志说，我们中国不要上美国的当，不要因为“萨德”的问题跟韩国把关系弄坏，我是不同意这个观点的。要知道，在国际关系互动中，谁先破坏了原则，谁就要付出代价。韩国不顾中国和韩国关系的大局，把自己绑在美国的“战车”上，严重破坏了中国和韩国关系的政治基础，破坏了东北亚地区格局的稳定。因此，我主张中国一定要坚持原则，不仅要反制，措施还要更强一些。我们要毫不放松地施压，不能松劲，一定要让韩国绝望。这次对韩国的“教训”如果成功，规矩也就立下来了——在大是大非问题上，谁想趁人之危背后捅一刀伤害中国的核心利益，那将是得不偿失的。如果能够通过给韩国施压，迫使其更换雷达，缩小了探测距离，结果会大不同。
当然，中国的反制力度越大，对韩国压力的越大，就越可能导致其对中国的反感。但是，我们不能因为它反感我们就不做。实际上，不单单对韩国，包括对其它国家也一样。我们要告诉大家，跟中国打交道是要有原则的，不能想干什么就干什么，不能胡来，不能太任性，任性是要打屁屁的。
具体来说，对于中国反制韩国的措施，我有几点建议：第一，政治上，应让韩国知道，这样做会伤害双方战略互信。正如中国常驻联合国代表刘结一大使在安理会上所讲的一样，问题非常简单，中国不高兴了，不能按照韩国和美国的愿望搞什么声明。这只是个开头，这意味着如果把中国得罪了，谁都没好日子过。
第二，军事上。目前，中国已通过相关渠道给韩国释放信号，即如果你要部署萨德，那你的导弹基地就面临着受打击的可能，这样一来你肯定更不安全。如果韩国做出最后决定，我们的军事建设也必然会跟上，一定可以让对方看到，这将是“硬杀伤”。
第三，经济上。前段时间有报道称，如果中国对部署萨德真的做出回应，韩国的旅游业、酒店业和奢侈品零售业等都将迎来严冬。实际上，韩国最经受不起的就是丧失中国的市场，丧失中国的市场和中国的战略信任，对韩国来讲将是灾难性的。周边战略：“二三四”国家最关键未来十年是中国和美国力量博弈的关键阶段。特别是“十四五”后，中国在亚洲地区经济上的影响力会遥遥领先，安全上的主导力也会不断减小与美国的差距，这段时期会是中国和美国双方心理调试的关键期。
当前，美国大选正在如火如荼地进行。应该说，特朗普也好、希拉里也好，谁上台也不会改变维护美国利益的基本思路。但是，新上任美国总统的执政风格会与奥巴马有所不同。因此，中国从战略上、外交上一定要保持清醒的头脑，准备接美国的新招，以免我们会措手不及。
对于大战略布局，我们该如何去做？在我看来，中国要做好“二、三、四”的工作。“二”，是指中国和美国关系良性互动的问题。中国和美国会有矛盾和摩擦，但尽量要控制在不撕破脸皮的状态下。“三”，是指三大地区的三大变量，就是俄罗斯、印度、日本。俄罗斯问题不大，中国和俄罗斯是战略协调合作伙伴关系，印度跟中国处于基本相同的发展阶段，两国都有发展自己的战略目标，而日本是最关键的变量。我们应该通过斗争、通过压力、通过做工作等各种方式，不要让日本完全死心塌地站在美国一边，当然这可能是我们一厢情愿。“四”，是指在中国和美国两大高手过招过程中，有四个国家是很关键的砝码：越南、印尼、韩国和缅甸。我跟美国人说过一句话，他们听了很不高兴：“美国比以前更加“在意”我们了，而我们不像以前那样“在意”你们了”。与美国相比，中国亚洲地区拥有地缘地理、地缘经济和战略的三大优势。我们现在提出“一带一路”、“亚投行”等等大战略方向，如果可以让与中国合作的国家可以得到好处，而与美国合作的人得不到好处，慢慢地人心自然会思变，只要我们坚持和平发展的路线，坚持合作共赢的政策，我们的道路会越走越宽广。(作者杨毅是国防大学教授、中国著名军事战略评论家，文章根据作者在环球网主办的“资深大使、将军号脉中国和美国关系”座谈会上的发言整理而成 整理/翟亚菲)
(责任编辑：刘盛钱 UN649)
2016-08-17 05:27:32
环球网