Expert analysis of SpaceX rocket explosion: may be low-level errors-SpaceX, Thomas g-IT information

The night of September 1, space exploration technologies Corporation (SpaceX) "Falcon 9" rocket explosion in static firing tests, and burn together with rocket Israel Amos-6 communications satellites. Fortunately there were no casualties in the accident.

SpaceX company said in a statement afterwards, in accordance with standard procedure when the replenishment of propellant, rocket upper stage liquid oxygen tank caused an exception. Aerospace experts, international space magazine managing editor II analysis, the cause of the blast could be raised in the process due to factors such as static electricity Sparks, or large amount of propellant. "I think was caused by low-level errors. "He said.

"The explosion originated from the liquid oxygen tank. "Aerospace expert, researcher at the China Aerospace Science and industry the Hospital Department said Yang yuguang, liquid oxygen while the temperature is low, but very dangerous, the slightest mistake could cause an accident. Such as ordinary combustible materials will only slowly, if splashed with liquid oxygen ignited again, it will have a powerful explosion.

Yang yuguang, said United States Apollo program had two devastating accidents, one in ground training, Apollo spacecraft, pure oxygen burning in the cabin, the astronauts were killed; other Apollo 13th spacecraft oxygen tank explosion occurred due to mixing, causes the entire task fails. "Very dangerous high purity oxygen and liquid oxygen. "He said," If you raise the liquid oxygen, or with liquid oxygen tank when the issue is likely to explode. ”

While Yang yuguang, explosions, another possibility is that the rocket's second son or delayed satellite engine fire. "Rocket control system is very complex, very small factor can cause life-threatening malfunction. "He said, the former Soviet Union had been such a tragedy: due to operating errors, rockets secondary lead to ignition of the launch pad, the rocket level explosions, left hundreds of people dead.

But the rocket complex, cannot be ruled out the cause of the blast. Pang said, such as overheated due to failure of a device, such as the European Ariane rocket has exploded because of the arrow body with extra material, there is a possibility.

The accident caused a number of static firing tests of the SpaceX company concerned. Yang yuguang said this is the company's "unique skills". As far as he knows, and the company's mainstream launch vehicle has no such practices in other countries.

Static fixtures for ignition test rocket "lock" on the launch pad, the first-stage engine ignited, to test its reliability. Yang yuguang said, the advantage of this method of testing is closer to the actual flight, you can determine the status of the engine.

While Yang yuguang said rocket tests, flying process more complex and higher costs. SpaceX company taking shortcuts directly assembled rocket, install payload fairing on the buckle, transported to the launch pad test, significant cost savings. On the launch pad fire itself however is a risky move, if only to find that insufficient thrust, you can shut down the engine in time; but the explosion occurred, are the satellite and the rocket are burning candle. "The high reliability and low cost is a contradictory body, SpaceX company apparently prefers to streamline processes, reduce costs, but they paid a heavy price. "He said.

After the accident, Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg says "extremely disappointing". This "burial" and "the Falcon 9" Amos-6 communications satellite worth $ 200 million, this will become Facebook's first satellite Internet service, Zuckerberg "all Internet" ambitious plan begins. Now this plan had to be postponed.

Disappointed not only Zuckerberg. A week ago, xinwei, China decided to acquire Amos-6, the parent company of the Group--Israel satellite company (SCC), but one of the prerequisites is Amos-6 must successfully into orbit. This incident will have much impact on acquisition is uncertain, but SCC valuations will undoubtedly shrink.

By contrast, SpaceX is undoubtedly more affected by company itself. Pang said "the Falcon 9" fail multiple times in the collection, but does not affect the mission. This fault is very deadly, will make the company's reputation is greatly reduced.

On June 28 last year, a "Falcon 9" since helium bottle steel support deficiencies in 139 seconds after launch explosive disintegration, leading all terminated within six months following launch of SpaceX company. Experts predict that launches dead time after the accident, the company will exceed that of last year.

A few days ago, SpaceX company has plans to launch the first gold in the fourth quarter of this year, "second hand" and "Falcon 9" found the courage to first "crab" customers, Luxembourg international satellite operator SES-10 worth hundreds of millions of dollars into geosynchronous orbit. Now this plan could be delayed or even cancelled.

SpaceX company last year, and NASA (United States NASA) signed contract commercial manned space flight planned in 2017, with a manned long craft United States astronaut to the international space station. Part I believe, which is hard to achieve, originally scheduled for launch may be produced by Boeing "star bus" to complete. He said SpaceX had 17 launches planned this year, but as the accident occurred, the remaining 9 will no doubt stay of execution. Even follow-up Falcon rocket plans will be affected.

As a staunch supporter of the SpaceX company and NASA declared: "our business partners to keep the faith. "However, Pang said, because too much emphasis on low cost," Falcon 9 "reliability has been under a cloud. "Many parts of the company are highly reliable industrial grade instead of the space level products test equipment was also said low-cost reliable more; even the rocket launch sites, also called ' time, few ' in order to reduce costs. "He said, hoping the lesson and can help commercial aerospace companies in cost and reliability in search of a better balance between.

专家分析SpaceX火箭爆炸原因：可能是低级失误 - SpaceX,马斯克 - IT资讯

9月1日晚，太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）的“猎鹰9”火箭在进行静态点火测试时爆炸，一同焚毁的还有火箭搭载的以色列Amos-6通信卫星。好在事故中没有人员伤亡。

SpaceX公司事后发布声明称，在按照标准程序加注推进剂时，火箭上面级液氧储罐出现异常而造成事故。航天专家、《国际太空》杂志社执行总编庞之浩分析认为，爆炸原因可能是加注过程中由于静电等因素产生火花，或是推进剂加注量过大。“我觉得是低级失误造成的。”他说。

“此次爆炸源于液氧储箱位置。”航天专家、中国航天科工二院二部研究员杨宇光表示，液氧虽然温度低，但非常危险，稍有不慎就可能引发事故。比如普通易燃物质只会慢慢燃烧，如果泼上液氧再点燃，就会产生剧烈爆炸。

杨宇光介绍说，美国阿波罗计划曾发生两次灾难性事故，一次是阿波罗一号飞船在地面训练时，舱内的纯氧产生剧烈燃烧，航天员遇难；另一次是阿波罗13号飞船的氧气罐由于搅拌发生爆炸，导致整个任务失败。“高纯度的氧气和液氧极具危险性。”他说，“如果在加注液氧，或在进行跟液氧储箱有关操作时出现问题，很有可能引发爆炸。”

同时杨宇光表示，爆炸的另一种可能是火箭二子级或卫星发动机发生误点火。“火箭控制系统非常复杂，很小的因素可能造成致命误操作。”他说，前苏联曾发生过这样的悲剧：因操作失误，发射台上的火箭二级率先点火，使火箭一级爆炸，导致现场上百人丧生。

不过火箭构造复杂，也不能排除其他爆炸原因。庞之浩说，比如某个设备因发生故障而过热，如欧洲阿里安火箭曾因箭体内留有多余物而爆炸，都存在着可能性。

这次事故引起了不少人对SpaceX公司静态点火测试的关注。杨宇光说，这是该公司的“独门绝技”。据他所知，其他国家和公司的主流运载火箭没有这种做法。

静态点火测试是用固定装置把火箭“锁”在发射台上，对一子级发动机进行点火，以测试其可靠性。杨宇光说，这种测试方法的好处是更接近于实际飞行，可以确定发动机的状态。

同时杨宇光表示，火箭的整套测试、飞行流程越复杂成本越高。SpaceX公司走了捷径，直接把火箭装配好，安上有效载荷，扣上整流罩，运到发射台上进行测试，节约了大量成本。然而在发射台上点火本身就是高风险动作，如果只是发现发动机推力不足，可以及时关闭发动机；但出现爆炸，则是星箭俱焚，得不偿失。“高可靠性和低成本是一对矛盾体，SpaceX公司显然更倾向于简化流程、降低成本，但他们这次付出了惨重的代价。”他说。

事故发生后，Facebook创始人兼CEO扎克伯格表示“极度失望”。这次“陪葬”“猎鹰9”的Amos-6通信卫星价值2亿美元，本将成为Facebook公司的首枚互联网服务卫星，是扎克伯格“让全人类都能上网”雄心计划的开始。如今这项计划不得不推迟。

失望的不只有扎克伯格。一周前，中国信威集团决定收购Amos-6卫星的母公司——以色列卫星公司（SCC），但前提条件之一是Amos-6卫星必须成功入轨。此次事故会对收购产生多大影响尚不确定，但SCC公司的估值无疑将大幅缩水。

相比之下，SpaceX公司自身受到的影响无疑更大。庞之浩表示，此前“猎鹰9”多次在回收时遭遇失败，但不影响发射任务。而这次故障则十分致命，会使该公司的声誉大大降低。

去年6月28日，一枚“猎鹰9”由于氦瓶钢支架存在缺陷，在发射后139秒爆炸解体，导致SpaceX公司终止了后续半年内全部发射任务。有专家预测，此次事故后该公司的发射停滞时间将超过去年。

几天前，SpaceX公司刚为计划于今年第四季度发射的首枚“二手”“猎鹰9”，找到了敢于第一个“吃螃蟹”的客户，要把卢森堡国际卫星运营商价值数亿美元的SES-10送入地球同步轨道。现在这项计划可能会被推迟甚至取消。

SpaceX公司去年还和NASA（美国航空航天局）签署了商业载人太空飞行合同，计划在2017年用载人龙飞船把美国航天员送往国际空间站。庞之浩认为，该合同很难如期实现，原定发射任务可能会由波音公司的“星际客车”来完成。他还表示，SpaceX公司今年本来有17次发射计划，但随着事故发生，剩下的9次无疑将延期执行。甚至后续的猎鹰重型火箭计划都会受到影响。

作为SpaceX公司的坚定支持者，NASA声明：“对我们的商业伙伴仍保持信心。”不过庞之浩表示，由于过于看重低成本，“猎鹰9”的可靠性一直受到怀疑。“该公司很多元部件都是用高可靠工业级而不是宇航级产品；测试设备也是先讲低成本再求高可靠；就连火箭进入发射场，也要求‘时间短、用人少’以降低成本。”他说，希望这次教训，能促使商业航天公司在成本和可靠性之间寻找更好的平衡点。