Milk prices in China down, dairy industry pain some places start with fresh milk to feed the pigs
Dairy industry suffered the throesImport low-price shocks and slowing consumption growth of dairy products "meet two", selling milk began to appear
"Milk prices have been falling, the first two years also rushed to 4 dollars per kilogram, now watches the TAIEX was 3 bucks. As it goes, is about to lose money. "Recently, dairy farmers in xingtang County in Hebei hope in dairy cattle breeding region Lu Xiang to be worried about. It is swamped by falling milk prices, large number 1800 head of dairy farming in Jinan, Shandong province Qiu Shengming reluctantly sold some cows. And Qiu Shengming Lu Xianglai situation wasn't worse. As milk prices continued downward, began to appear in some areas with fresh milk to feed the pigs, and so on.
Yu kangzhen, Deputy Minister of agriculture said that China's dairy industry-wide loss of more than 50%. According to the Sentinel surveillance of agriculture in March, dairy farming losses reached 51%, an increase of 5.8% and the number of cows down 11.9%. More serious is that this situation continues, and is still spreading. Dairy industry that by some banks in the "high risk".
Analysis of losses were a result of the dairy industry, said Yu kangzhen, the last two years, as the impact imports cheap milk and dairy consumption growth slowed "meet two" dairy industry-wide challenges, product sales are sluggish, deficit is widening.
On one hand, serious upside down international prices and domestic prices. International Economic Association of dairy industry, according to data published in May of this year, average prices of raw milk in the world converted into RMB 1.44 Yuan per kilogram, 10 major grain-producing areas in China with an average 3.46 Yuan per kilogram in raw milk prices. On May 3, the New Zealand Fonterra dairy product trade fair in the world auction price displayed, WMP 2176 dollars a tonne in 2013, the highest prices 5208 per tonne to $ 58.2%. Recently, the CIF import milk powder to 18,000 yuan per ton, while close to 30,000 yuan per ton.
Meanwhile, dairy consumption slows. A case study of liquid milk, according to the National Bureau of statistics data, 2015 national fluid milk sales total 27.389 million tons, up 3.6% over the previous year. But with "Twelve-Five" during an annual average of 5.1%, "Eleven-Five" compared to average annual growth of 11.1% for the period, representing a marked low. Meanwhile, consumer confidence also in the repair phase of Chinese-made milk.
Gadfly stung dairy, the cows will be painful. GAO Hongbin, President of China dairy industry association said that currently, dairy industry pain is expressed as "triple trouble".
One difficulty is the low milk prices. At present, large farm fresh milk prices fell 10%, small-scale breeding and farm fresh milk prices fell 15%.
Another difficulty was selling milk. Downward pressure on consumption growth, dairy companies began limiting intake of fresh milk, limiting yield accounted for 10% of raw and fresh milk products. Some large farming enterprises because of sales difficulties, not processed into milk had to be the original milk paint formula, powder quantity accounted for 5% of fresh milk production.
There is also a difficult loss. At present, the loss of dairy enterprise is never met over the years.
Yu kangzhen said, current, milk industry faced of difficult and macroeconomic big environment and international dairy price periodic fluctuations about, but main also is we itself competitiveness enough strong, feed and artificial, elements cost rose fast, technology and management abridged version increased effect capacity upgrade slow, cow farming and dairy processing integration degree still not high, interests link mechanism not close, consumers on China domestic dairy of consumption confidence still not strong.
Development potential of the deep
Milk consumption is expected to be a long period of steady growth
The difficulties faced by the dairy industry is also a "growing pains." Secretary General of China Association of dairy industry Gu Jicheng said, after years of efforts, China's dairy industry has made considerable progress.
Production improvements. In 2015, the national dairy farming scale up 49%, 29.5% were higher than in 2008. Whole-plant silage rapid proliferation of mechanized milking, cold chain storage and transportation are fully realized. Milk dairy enterprises build and share more than 20%.
Cow yields significantly. Now, the average yield of 6 tons of Holstein cows than in 2008 increased by 1.2 tons, which yield more than 9 tons of high-yield cows reached 1.5 million, to large-scale dairy farms, high yielding dairy herd of production system in initial shape.
Quality and safety has increased significantly. Fresh milk banned additives sampling rate 100% for 7 consecutive years, large-scale farm production of raw milk quality of main health indicators have reached the level of developed countries. In 2015, the national dairy products rate of 99.67%.
Under the influence of these factors, China's dairy production has increased significantly. In 2015, China stock cow reaches more than 10 million head, production reached 38.7 million tons of fresh milk and dairy products and 27.82 million tons, ranking third in the world. As far as the current level of demand, the supply base saturation.
GAO Hongbin said that imported dairy products exacerbated the conflict between supply and demand. Cumulative imports 1.226 million tons of dairy products in the first half of this year, an increase of 30.49% import liquid milk rose 77.31%; importing infant milk powder grew 25.42%.
"Inventory" is an urgent task of the dairy industry. "Need to guide consumption, by expanding supply of pasteurized milk and cheese products, such as structural, better meet the needs of the masses. "Wang Junxun, Deputy Director of Ministry of agriculture animal husbandry said.
Although the prominent contradictions between supply and demand, but in the long run still has the full potential of the Chinese dairy industry, saturation is at best a temporary saturation of the current dairy products. Yu kangzhen, 2015 per capita milk consumption in China reached 36 kg in 2000, an increase of 28.4 kilograms, about 6 kg more than in 2008, but only the world's average consumption of 1/3. He said: "the national fluid milk sales last year is still faster growth in all types of bulk food. With population growth, improve people's living standard, milk consumption is expected to be a long period of steady growth, an important phase of dairy industry in China is still in play. ”
Way out in the foot
Reform and innovation, restructuring, transformation and upgrade, is the dairy industry's "best strategy"
Dairy industry in how to deal with the current difficulties encountered?
It was said that imported dairy dairy industry in China feel pressures, it imported less does not become it? CICC Chief Economist Wensheng Peng said in fact international milk prices down is under the influence of dairy development cycle. United States Department of agriculture data show, and the past two years, revenues dropped 35% dairy farms across the United States in June this year United States cheese producers and cheese inventory reached 759 million pounds, an increase of 104 million pounds. Besides, in the deepening globalization of trade today, closed it surely won't work.
"The dairy way, on our own feet. "The Minister of agriculture Han changfu said, reform and innovation, restructuring, transformation and upgrading, development of dairy industry in China is" best strategy ". In view of the current problems of dairy, use combination. Continue to strengthen the construction of milk source base, continue to enhance forage production system, sustainable strengthening of raw and fresh milk quality and safety supervision, strengthen consumer guide, use of science and technology, material and equipment, development of concept, mode of operation, the industry organization to reform the traditional industries, reduce costs, improve efficiency and enhance competitiveness.
June Wei Lihua, President of Le Bao said, "Gadfly stung the cow, cow power running. "The current supply side of structural reform of the dairy industry is advancing, innovation vitality of the dairy industry is bursting.
Quality and efficiency way become wide. Just like a coin has two sides, dairy industry-wide loss of more than 50% on the other side, some dairy enterprises above the designated size performance "red". The China dairy industry association data showed that dairy enterprises above designated size in the first half sales revenue 5.4%; total profits grew by 15.8%; stock fell 14.28%. This situation of dairy industry brings some warmth.
Dairy enterprises above designated size, one important reason is that many companies, especially listed companies from the "ranch" business opened the door to quality are explored in the "01". Deng Jiuqiang, Chairman of Hebei banner dairy introduced "01 mode" is "distance integration" model, the earliest implementation of the "01 model" of modern animal husbandry has three times won the Gold Medal of World Congress of food tasting. Modern dairy Board Chairman Gao Lina said, the company producing quality milk is the mystery of "planting and integration" and "from milk to processing in 2 hours" mode of production. At the end of last year, modern farming has been built in the country, "head Ranch" 27, signed up forage more than 800,000 acres, high quality dairy cattle population 230,000 head of dairy cows yield more than 9 tons.
Dairy farmers milk enterprises benefit coupling mechanism of win-win cooperation is steadily advancing. Currently 15,000 farmers specialized cooperatives have sprung up, grow. Ding in animal husbandry new full managed small pasture cows, milk prices high quality raw milk supply to large, as a dairy industry "waiter". Establishment of enterprise of this until May 2013, through a delegate, becoming a shareholder, custom built, technical managed mode, has integrated Ranch 140 nationwide, signed the cow number 100,000, Nissan 1100 tons of fresh milk, largest in the top 5 of national livestock, innovative dairy farmers formed the largest cooperatives.
Various exploration are exciting energy. Despite the situation, but we are convinced that China's dairy industry out of its slump would not last too long. Graphics: Yue reporter Li Zi Gao Yuncai
(Editors: Xu Yonggang UN006)
2016-09-05 08:43:13
Authorities wide nets
中国鲜奶价格下行，奶业遭遇阵痛 一些地方开始用鲜奶喂猪
奶业遭遇阵痛 进口低价乳制品冲击和消费增长放缓“两碰头”，卖奶难开始出现
“原奶价格一直在降，前两年每公斤还冲到过4块钱，现在眼瞅着就要跌破3块钱了。照这样下去，马上就要赔钱了。”最近，河北省行唐县希望奶牛养殖小区的奶农卢香来很犯愁。实在招架不住奶价持续下跌，存栏有1800头奶牛的山东济南养殖大户邱胜明准备忍痛低价卖掉一些奶牛。卢香来和邱胜明的境遇还不算最糟。随着奶价持续下行，一些地方开始出现用鲜奶喂猪等现象。
农业部副部长于康震表示，目前中国奶业全行业亏损面已经超过50%。据农业部定点监测，3月份奶牛养殖亏损面已达51%，同比增长5.8%；同时，奶牛存栏量同比减少11.9%。更严重的是，这种情况还在持续，还在蔓延。以至于奶业被一些银行列入“高危行业”。
分析奶业亏损的原因，于康震表示，最近两年以来，随着进口低价乳制品冲击和奶业消费增长放缓“两碰头”，奶业全行业面临挑战，产品销售不畅，亏损面持续扩大。
一方面，国际奶价与国内奶价严重倒挂。国际奶业经济学会发布的数据表明，今年5月，全球原料奶平均价格折合成人民币为每公斤1.44元，中国10个主产区平均原奶价格为每公斤3.46元。5月3日，新西兰恒天然全球乳制品交易会拍卖价格显示，全脂奶粉每吨2176美元，比2013年最高价格每吨5208美元降低了58.2%。近期，进口奶粉到岸价为每吨1.8万元，而国内接近每吨3万元。
另一方面，乳制品消费增速放慢。以液态奶为例，根据国家统计局数据，2015年全国液态奶销售总量2738.9万吨，比上年增长3.6%。但与“十二五”期间每年平均增长5.1%、“十一五”期间年均增长11.1%相比，增幅明显偏低。同时，中国国产奶消费信心还处在修复阶段。
牛蝇叮了奶牛，奶牛会有阵痛。中国奶业协会会长高鸿宾说，当前，奶业阵痛突出表现为“三重困难”。
一重困难是奶价低。目前，大型养殖场的生鲜乳收购价格同比下降了10%，小规模的养殖小区和养殖场，生鲜乳收购价格同比下降了15%。
另一重困难是卖奶难。受消费增速下行压力，乳品企业开始限收生鲜乳，限收量约占生鲜乳生产总量的10%。一些大型养殖企业也因为销售困难，不得不将没有加工成鲜奶的原奶喷成奶粉，喷粉数量约占生鲜乳总产量的5%。
还有一重困难是亏损大。目前，奶企的亏损面是多年来未曾遇见的。
于康震表示，当前，奶业面临的困难与宏观经济大环境和国际乳制品价格周期性波动有关，但主要还是我们自身竞争力不够强，饲料和人工等要素成本上升快，技术和管理节本增效能力提升慢，奶牛养殖和乳制品加工一体化程度仍然不高，利益联结机制不紧密，消费者对中国国产乳制品的消费信心仍然不强。
发展潜力深厚
奶类消费可望在较长时期内保持稳定增长态势
奶业面临的困难也是一种“成长的烦恼”。中国奶业协会秘书长谷继承说，经过多年的努力，中国奶业取得了长足的进步。
生产方式改善。2015年，全国奶牛规模养殖比重达到49%，比2008年提高了29.5个百分点。全株青贮饲料快速普及，机械化挤奶、冷链储运全面实现。乳品企业自建和参股的奶源比重超过了20%。
奶牛单产大幅提高。现在，荷斯坦奶牛平均单产6吨，比2008年提高1.2吨，其中单产9吨以上的高产奶牛达到150万头，以规模化奶牛场、中高产奶牛群为主体的生产体系初步形成。
质量安全水平大幅提升。生鲜乳违禁添加物抽检合格率连续7年保持100%，规模化牧场产的原奶主要质量卫生指标达到发达国家水平。2015年，全国乳制品合格率达99.67%。
在这些因素共同作用下，中国乳制品产量大幅提升。2015年，中国存栏奶牛达到1000多万头，生鲜乳和乳制品产量分别达到3870万吨和2782万吨，居世界第三位。就目前的需求水平来说，供给基本饱和。
高鸿宾表示，进口乳制品加剧了供求矛盾。今年上半年累计进口乳制品122.6万吨，同比增长30.49%；进口液体奶同比增长77.31%；进口婴幼儿奶粉同比增长25.42%。
“去库存”是奶业的紧迫任务。“需要引导消费，通过扩张巴氏奶、奶酪制品等结构性供给，更好满足群众需求。”农业部畜牧业司副司长王俊勋说。
虽然供求矛盾凸显，但从长远看中国奶业发展依然具有深厚的潜力，当前乳制品的饱和充其量是临时性饱和。于康震表示，2015年中国人均奶消费量达到36公斤，比2000年增加28.4公斤，比2008年增加约6公斤，但也只有世界平均消费量的1/3。他说：“去年全国液态奶销量增长在各类大宗食品中仍是较快的。随着人口增长、人民生活水平提高，奶类消费可望在较长时期内保持稳定增长态势，中国奶业仍处于大有可为的重要阶段。”
出路就在脚下
改革创新，结构调整，转型升级，是奶业发展的“不二之策”
如何应对目前奶业遇到的困难？
有人说，既然进口乳品让中国奶业备感压力，那少进口点不就成了吗？中金公司首席经济学家彭文生坦言，其实，国际奶价一直下行是受到奶业发展周期的影响。美国农业部数据显示，过去两年间，全美奶牛场的营收下降了35%，今年6月美国奶酪生产商奶酪库存达到75900万磅，同比增加了10400万磅。再说，在贸易全球化日益深化的今天，闭关锁国那一套肯定行不通。
“奶业出路，就在我们自己的脚下。”农业部部长韩长赋表示，改革创新，结构调整，转型升级，是中国奶业发展的“不二之策”。针对当前奶业出现的问题，要用组合拳。继续加强奶源基地建设，继续加强饲草饲料生产体系建设，持续加强生鲜乳质量安全监管，持续加强消费引导，要用科学技术、物质装备、发展理念、经营方式、产业组织改革传统行业，降低成本，提升效率，增强竞争力。
君乐宝总裁魏立华说：“牛蝇叮了奶牛，牛会发力狂奔。”当前奶业供给侧结构性改革正在推进，奶业创新的活力正在迸发。
提质增效的路子越走越宽。就像一枚硬币有两面，奶业全行业亏损面超过50%的另一面，是一些规模以上乳品企业业绩“飘红”。中国乳制品工业协会数据显示，上半年规模以上乳品企业销售收入同比增长5.4%；利润总额同比增长15.8%；库存产品同比下降14.28%。这给形势严峻的奶业带来一些暖意。
规模以上乳品企业经营状况尚可，其中一个重要原因在于，很多企业特别是上市企业从“万头牧场”的经营中探索出了一个打开优质之门的“零一模式”。河北旗帜乳业董事长邓九强介绍，“零一模式”就是“零距离一体化”模式，国内最早实施“零一模式”的现代牧业已经三次蝉联世界食品品质品鉴大会金奖。现代牧业董事长高丽娜说，公司生产优质牛奶的奥秘就在于“种养加一体化”和“从挤奶到加工2小时完成”的生产模式。截至去年底，现代牧业已经在全国建成“万头牧场”27座，签约牧草80多万亩，优质奶牛存栏数23万头，泌乳牛单产9吨以上。
奶农奶企合作共赢的利益联结机制探索也正在稳步推进。目前全国1.5万个奶农专业合作社像雨后春笋，顽强生长。中鼎牧业另辟蹊径，把中小牧场的奶牛全程托管，把优质原奶供应给大型乳企，当起了一个奶业“服务生”。这家2013年5月才创立的企业，通过委托、入股、自建、技术托管等模式，先后在全国整合牧场140个，签约奶牛存栏10万头，日产鲜奶1100吨，跃居全国牧业5强，形成了全国规模最大的创新型奶农联合体。
种种探索正带来源源活力。尽管现在形势严峻，但我们深信，中国奶业走出低谷不会为时太久。制图：李姿阅 记者 高云才
(责任编辑：徐永刚 UN006)
2016-09-05 08:43:13
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