German media said China's aging society: demographic dividends pay

Reference news, September 9-German media said, fewer children in China means there is more time, money and resources to other things. In any case, things used to be so. Chinese women's fertility rate decreased from 70 's of the last century, early 80 's this trend was further strengthened because of the one-child policy. For 30 years, drop in China's birth rate in the economy: the national fertility rate per capita, people (especially women) work more, save more money, has more time to education and training.

According to the Germany of the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on September 7, now goes to the other extreme: by 2050, may one-third of the population (nearly 500 million people) will be over the age of 60. China is David · E ? bloom described a "demographic dividend" the best examples of the concept. The Americans was of Economics and demography at Harvard University School of public health Professor, in his article published before and after the turn of the century put forward the concept. Demographic dividend refers to the concept of an economy is first child mortality and then fertility decline some twenty or thirty-year period. This creates this situation, gradually, people reach adulthood than children, adolescents and the elderly. In developed economies such as the "baby boomers" and known, a large portion of them will be reaching retirement age in the next ten years.

Reports said that when people talk about the rise of China and it will soon replace the United States as the world's largest economy, and the development of the population of this country has a lot to do. "China has very good use of a demographic dividend", Bloom said, "for decades, per capita economic growth of 2%". But when it comes to slowing Chinese growth, people talk about first is the transition from industrial society to a service society, but said little about the age structure of the population-but one should not underestimate its effect.

Macro-economic development in China not only associated with the decline in the birth rate, but also associated with improvements in public health. Today, life expectancy in China over the age of 70, in 1958, less than 50 years old. No country in the world, life expectancy was lower than the middle of the last century. It unleashed huge growth potential in many countries.

Reports said, because it is only when child mortality is down, people will reduce the child. Only when life expectancy increases, the potential for growth will only increase. Since the second world war, global health is improving. "Millions of tens of millions of people to flee the world of disease and deprivation," last year's Nobel economics prize winner and Princeton University economist Angus Deaton writes.

However, economics for a long time misjudged the impact of health on economic growth. Health and health status, past and present are considered to be an indicator of economic development, but has not been considered a catalyst for economic development. "This change is not very long," Broome said. At least in the field of Economics, macro-economics is. So, people have been only from the angle of ethics to defend public health care expenditure, Broome said. Through the efforts of researchers like him, this has changed. "Health care must be an element of growth equations," the Economist asked. Take this he also provides powerful for AIDS prevention, malaria spending and improve the vaccination program arguments. "African countries have great potential to benefit from the demographic dividend," bloom said.

He predicted that other parts of the world the future is not so bright. Because the demographic dividend but also had to pay at some point. China is currently experiencing – preparing for an ageing society, because the proportion of the working-age population has begun to decline. Germany also has experience, it is preparing to support more and more pensioners. Bloom: "the retirement age should be raised. People must be prepared to work long days. ”

(Editors: Zhong Qinghui UN660)
2016-09-09 00:45:49
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德媒称中国迎来老龄化社会：为人口红利还债

　　参考消息网9月9日报道 德媒称，在中国孩子更少意味着有更多的时间、金钱和资源给其他事物。不管怎样，事情曾经如此。中国女性生育率从上世纪70年代开始降低，到80年代初这一趋势因为独生子女政策而进一步加强。整整30年来，中国得以将出生率的下降用在它的经济发展上：国民人均生育率降低，人们（特别是女性）工作得更多，省下的钱更多，也有了更多的时间来接受教育和培训。

　　据德国《南德意志报》9月7日报道，眼下事情走向了另外一个极端：到2050年，可能有三分之一的中国人口（将近5亿人）将超过60岁。中国是戴维·E·布鲁姆所描述的“人口红利”概念的最佳范例。这位美国人是哈佛大学公共健康学院的经济学和人口学教授，他在世纪之交前后出版的文章中提出了这一概念。人口红利的概念是指一个经济体先是儿童死亡率然后是出生率下降的大约二三十年的时期。这样就产生了这种情况，逐渐地，达到劳动年龄的人数量超过了儿童、青少年和老人。在发达经济体这种现象因为“婴儿潮一代”而为人所知，他们当中的很大一部分将在未来十年内达到退休年龄。

　　报道称，所以说，当人们谈到中国的崛起以及它很快就将取代美国成为世界最大经济体时，这也与这个国家的人口发展有很大的关系。“中国非常好地利用了人口红利”，布鲁姆说，“几十年来，它为人均经济增长贡献了2%”。但是眼下在谈到中国增速放慢时，人们谈论的首先是从工业社会向服务型社会的过渡，而很少谈到人口年龄结构——然而人们不应低估它的效应。

　　中国宏观经济发展不仅与出生率下降有关，而且也与大众健康状况的改善有关。今天中国的预期寿命在70岁以上，而1958年时还不到50岁。当今世界上没有一个国家的预期寿命比上世纪中期还低。这在很多国家释放出巨大的增长潜力。

　　报道称，因为只有当儿童死亡率下跌时，人们才会减少生孩子。只有当预期寿命提高时，增长的潜力才会增大。自第二次世界大战以来，全球健康状况几乎是全面改善。“几百万几千万人逃离了疾病和物质匮乏的世界，”去年的诺贝尔经济奖得主、普林斯顿大学经济学家安格斯·迪顿这样写道。

　　然而，经济学有很长时间错误判断了健康状况对经济增长的影响。健康与医疗卫生状况过去和现在都被公认为是经济发展的一个指标，但却并未被视为经济发展的催化剂。“这点发生变化还不是很久，”布鲁姆说。至少在经济学的宏观经济学领域是这样。因此人们一直只是从伦理道德角度来为公共卫生医疗开支进行辩护，布鲁姆说。通过像他这样的研究者的努力，这点发生了改变。“医疗卫生必须是增长方程式上的一个要素，”这位经济学家要求说。借此他也提供了有力的为预防艾滋病、疟疾增加开支和改善疫苗接种计划的论据。“非洲国家恰恰有巨大从人口红利中获益的潜力，”布鲁姆说。

　　他预言，世界其他地区的未来就没有这么璀璨了。因为人口红利也包括不得不在某个时刻还债。中国目前正在经历——为一个老龄化社会做好准备，因为劳动年龄人口比例已经开始下降。而这点德国也有体会，它正为供养越来越多的退休者作准备。布鲁姆建议：“退休年龄必须提高。人们必须为工作更长年头做好准备。”

(责任编辑：钟庆辉 UN660)
2016-09-09 00:45:49
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