Typhoon "forecast di": the most effective method is the aircraft flew into the eye of the Typhoon

The "forecast di" appeared again. Xiamen 25 hours before the typhoon hit, after successful tornado forecast in Yancheng in advance @ weather enthusiasts, issued a document saying, the Typhoon is very likely on the morning of 15th from Fukien landed along the coast, up to level 15.

"Come true" was beyond praise, he calls himself also depend on analysis of data and experience. And accurate data depends on meteorological observations, on the Typhoon and most accurate detection, aircraft detection methods. United States from 40 's of last century, routinely probe a hurricane, while Taiwan has only aircraft exploration program in Asia, but the basic cost of a flight of more than NT $ 3 million. In addition, the UAV detection will be enabled in Zhoushan, China.

(August 2013, the Hong Kong Observatory sent aircraft, through the Ute eye wall, flew it over the eye of the typhoon, took the following pictures, the South China Sea is clearly visible. ）

Tornado "forecast di" one day ahead forecast typhoons

September 14 at 2 o'clock, @ weather enthusiasts, opined that the probability of the Typhoon landed in Fujian, Xiamen and Zhangzhou coastal State should enter the Supreme defense. Day 8:41 A.M., his long hair article that Moranti May 15th in coastal Xiamen, Fukien landed in the morning, when there may be upper limit lower limit Super typhoons to Typhoon strength (15-16).

"Moranti is strongest typhoons in Taiwanese history, friend of Xia-Zhang Quan, to guard against Typhoon record level standard defense of it. "He stressed.

14th at 15 o'clock in the afternoon, published for the first time in the history of Xiamen preventing and antagonizing Typhoon to mobilize. 15th 3:05 A.M., Moranti xiangan of Xiamen City, from the coastal typhoon made landfall, maximum sustained winds near the center level 15 (48m/s), 4 the instantaneous wind speed up to 54.9m/s, for the history since the founding of the second wind.

@ Weather enthusiasts to Sohu news analysis, relative stability in the path of Typhoon, landed in Xiamen is subtropical steering flow to Xiamen, wind so strong is that it developed in the Bashi Channel to the limit, on this basis, the core structure is not destroyed by the central mountain range.

The Xiamen Typhoon using high altitude balloon method

"Typhoon forecasting difficult, Typhoon forecasting accurate and requires a lot of data and more data forecasts more accurate. "@ Weather enthusiast, told Sohu news in China, in order to obtain the data, the common status of satellite and radar data of Typhoon is also commonly used with balloon-borne method.

Xiamen Meteorological Department confirms that the typhoon will use the balloon method – every morning, and 7:15 P.M., flying a balloon probe stop, not one second maximum delay of 5 minutes and 59 seconds, once the time is not right, or can't balloon day, even if the accident. Upper air sounding balloons up to 2 metres in diameter, can detect humidity, barometric pressure and temperature, but also to monitor wind direction and wind speed – Typhoon "medical examination", can provide important data for Typhoon early warning support.

"The balloon ran into strong winds blew directly, not measured. "@ Weather enthusiasts point out that China, the most effective and direct detection method of the Typhoon was sent flying into a typhoon data. Current international most advanced technology, is manned military refitted aircraft, flew into the Center, and can even detect a very strong hurricanes. "Not in external circles, is to fly into the eye of the typhoon, last year was a King of the wind in the Eastern Pacific, they fly is not wrong, did go wrong. ”

The most effective but also the most money: plane flew into the Typhoon detection

@ China weather enthusiasts said last year China had fired missiles into Rainbow Typhoon detection, at present, Hong Kong, Taiwan may be represented by artificial planes fly into typhoon Typhoon Center and not too strong.

August 2013, the Hong Kong Observatory sent aircraft through the Ute eye wall, flew it over the eye of the typhoon, took to the sea surface is clearly visible. Shortly after the probe, the Hong Kong Observatory from the Typhoon Utor downgraded to Typhoon.

Sohu News noted that Asia's only aircraft for Typhoon observation research plan-"herd plan", has been in Taiwan over 12 years, completing 74 flights, track 58 Typhoon is observed. Each flight takes 5-6 hours, costing more than NT $ 3 million. Judging by the results from more than 10 years of observations, within 5 days of the typhoon in this way, been reduced on average by nearly 20% path error, within 72 hours of the typhoon, is able to reduce the prediction error of about 6%.

It's basic approach is to use an aircraft around the key areas of typhoons, from 13000 meters in the air one by one put on is called "Dropsonde" air detector. Detectors within the landing time of 20 minutes, with 120 beats per minute frequency, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and wind speed data, returned behind a computer in real time, as a basis for simulation, prediction of Typhoon moving towards.

August 2016, Zhejiang daishan Zhoushan plans to built unmanned aircraft detection systems by 2020, severe weather forecasting accuracy 80%, 60-kilometer Typhoon track forecast error is less than 24 hours.

(Editor: Yang Lei UN873)
2016-09-15 13:28:29
Sohu

台风“预测帝”：最有效探测法是飞机飞进台风眼

　　“预测帝”又显灵。厦门台风来袭前25小时，此前成功提前预测盐城龙卷风的@中国气象爱好者 ，就发文称，台风极有可能在15日早晨从厦漳泉沿海登陆，可达15级。

　　“应验”被赞之外，他称自己也是靠数据和经验分析而来的。而准确的数据有赖于气象观测，对台风最准确的探测，是飞机探测方法。美国从上世纪40年代起就经常性地探测飓风，而台湾则拥有亚洲唯一的飞机探测计划，但一次飞行基本成本就超过300万新台币。此外，中国舟山将启用无人机探测法。

 

（2013年8月，香港天文台派出飞机，穿越尤特眼墙，飞抵它的台风眼上空，拍下如下画面，南海海面清晰可见。）

　　龙卷风“预测帝”提前一天预测台风

　　9月14日2时许，@中国气象爱好者 便指出，台风登陆福建的概率增大，厦门和漳州沿海应进入最高防御状态。当天上午8点41分，他发长文分析，莫兰蒂最可能于15日早晨在厦、漳、泉沿海登陆，登陆时可能还有超强台风下限到强台风上限的实力（15-16级）。

　　“莫兰蒂有可能是闽南历史上最强的登陆台风，厦漳泉的朋友，应以防范历史纪录级别台风的标准防御它。”他强调。

　　14日下午15时许，厦门史上首次发布防抗台风动员令。15日凌晨3时05分许，台风莫兰蒂从厦门市翔安区沿海登陆，中心附近最大风力15级（48m/s），4点瞬时风速达54.9m/s，为建国以来历史第二强风。

　　@中国气象爱好者 向搜狐新闻分析，台风的路径相对稳定，登陆厦门是因为副热带高压引导气流正好指向厦门，风力这么强是因为它在巴士海峡发展到了极限，在此基础上，核心结构没有被中央山脉破坏。

　　此次厦门台风使用高空气球探测法

　　“台风预测难度大，台风预测需要大量的、准确的数据，数据越多预测越准。”@中国气象爱好者 告诉搜狐新闻，为了取得数据，国内常用卫星、雷达资料判断台风的状态，此外也常用气球探测法。

　　厦门气象部门证实此次台风中便使用了气球探测法——每天早、晚7点15分，探测站都要各放飞一颗高空气球，不能提前一秒，最多延迟5分59秒，一旦时间不对，或是气球上不了天，就算事故。高空探测气球直径达2米，能探测湿度、气压和温度，还能监测风向和风速——相当于为台风做“体检”，能够为台风预警提供重要的数据支持。

　　“气球遇到强风直接炸了，不好测。”@中国气象爱好者 指出，最有效最直接的台风探测法，是派飞机飞到台风里面去测量数据。当前国际最尖端技术，是人工驾驶军用改装飞机，飞进台风中心，甚至可探测极强飓风。“不是在外围打转，是要飞到台风眼的，去年东太平洋出了一个风王，他们照飞不误，也没出问题。”

　　最有效也最烧钱：飞机冲进台风里探测

　　@中国气象爱好者 称，去年中国曾发射导弹到彩虹台风里探测，目前香港、台湾可派人工飞机飞进台风外围和不太强的台风中心。

　　2013年8月，香港天文台派出飞机，穿越尤特台风眼墙，飞抵它的台风眼上空，拍到南海海面清晰可见。探测后不久，香港天文台将尤特从强台风降格为台风。

　　搜狐新闻注意到，亚洲唯一的应用飞机进行台风观测的科研计划——“追风计划”，已在台湾实施了12年，完成74次飞行，追踪观测了58个台风。每次飞行需5到6小时，基本成本超过300万元新台币。而从十几年来的观测结果来看，这种方式对5天之内的台风，平均可降低近20%的路径误差，对72小时之内的台风，则能降低约6%的预报误差。

　　它的基本做法就是利用飞机绕行台风的关键区域，从13000米的高空逐一投放被称为“投落送”的大气探测仪。探测仪在20分钟的降落时间内，以每分钟120次的频率，将温度、湿度、气压和风速等数据，实时传回后方计算机，作为模拟、预测台风走向的依据。

　　2016年8月，浙江舟山打算建岱山无人飞机探测系统，以期到2020年，灾害性天气预报准确率达到80％，台风路径24小时预报误差小于60千米。

(责任编辑：杨磊 UN873)
2016-09-15 13:28:29
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