Musk: own approximately 80% of our time in engineering and design-Thomas g, Tesla, SpaceX-IT information
"Editor's note" this finishing YC partner Sam Altman an interview with Elon Musk and video form. From the anticipation of the future how about AI technology to change lives, from self expectations management to time allocation, iron man has brought us new inspiration?
YC: this year, we would like to talk about your ideas for the future, and what direction it should be super. You have a very famous, you said when you were young that the world's 5 most important things to do, now, if you are 22 years old, what do you think those five things are?
Elon Musk: first of all, I think that if people do things that will benefit society, it should be valued as a whole. Don't necessarily need to "change the world", just for people to create a high-value, even if it is a game or help people to better share photos, if it reaches enough people, even if it is only a slight improvement, I think is valuable.
But back to what the maximum human influence? I think AI,AI is what we needs to be taken seriously in the near future.
Allow the AI to play a positive role is vital to the future of business. AI may be the harm we have talked about so many times, we need to really make it right now. Therefore, AI work and confirm it "right to work" is the first important thing of the future.
The second important thing is genetic engineering. If using recombinant approach to the prevention of dementia or Alzheimer's disease, I think it will be very valuable.
In addition, try to connect the brain will be very important, we now the brain interact with the outside world was limited (output of the brain ability is not very good), our brain capacity is more than email, computer, mobile phone or the APP, we are Superman.
YC: today's young people have a very popular saying: "I want to be Elon Musk", you are the inspiration for young people. Do you think what do you do when you're young so you have influence today?
Elon Musk: first of all, I must say, I do not, I do not intend to become idols.
In fact, 25 years ago when I was in college I began to think that the 5 things: immigration outside the planet, sustainable energy, the Internet, genetic modification and AI. All began from my college to help electric cars, then my internship, the task is the study of electric vehicle battery capacity will have a breakthrough. Later went to Stanford PhD, subject is this, but dropped out in 1995, I had applied for, founder of an Internet company, as did find Internet technology in a period of dramatic change, and I don't want to be a bystander--I wasn't sure my research topic will work.
You can take a lot of professional doctorates, but these were likely to have no real impact on the development of the world, and I was again and ask yourself, "what is useful", I just want to be a useful person.
YC: now if people want to become a useful person does need to have a doctorate?
Elon Musk: most of them are not needed.
YC: how "useful" a valid path?
Elon Musk: only a very small portion of the work, most of the road will lead to failure.
YC: How do people find his path to the maximum value?
Elon Musk: I think you can count, you have to do this much improvement on the current situation, can affect many people. Or have a very large impact on minorities, or have a very small impact on most, the last calculation is the product of two numbers.
YC: you decided to start Space x, the action should look like crazy.
Elon Musk: crazy, that I die read. If the company is to achieve the best return under controlled risk, that starting this company was a crazy decision. But that was not what I wanted.
I thought that, if there is no space to do some improvements, people will forever be trapped on Earth. And largest space technology companies are not interested to do radical innovations, and they want to do is let that little bit older technology gets better every year. And the truth is, sometimes technology with time will get even worse, especially rocket technology, back in 1969, we can go to the Moon, and only put people on a near-Earth orbit of the space station, space station after retiring.
People sometimes feel that science and technology will over time become good, but it isn't. Only when the wise man with the crazy effort it will get better, without these efforts, the technology is actually degrades.
You look at Egypt, the original pyramid construction techniques have been lost, the glyph is not able to read, another example of Roman architecture is the same. History is full of too many similar examples. So I think we should always remember that the entropy of the universe is not on our side.
YC: a bit of quality that I like you, that although thousands of people to go, even though others may point to your nose and say "you're insane" you wouldn't budge-although I know a lot of crazy, but you are the one with the best and the brightest. A lot of people are questioning you, you are very strong, I would like to know where did you come from?
Elon Musk: I often feel fear – fear is normal, if someone cannot feel fear, perhaps he has some problems with such spirit.
But I believe I'm going to do something important enough, my importance to it without hesitation, so I find it more difficult to do.
I thought when he founded SpaceX, its probability of success only 10%, founder of Tesla's time, too, in fact, an electric car company, the probability of success is very low, so I've done nothing. Several help to its fatalism, to some degree, accept all possible results will give you a better fight fear.
YC: do you think that stand today and our immigrants more likely on Mars?
Elon Musk: I think it's great.
YC: so, when can I go to Mars? BTW, if you can come back, I would love to come back.
Elon Musk: I hope I'm not a pollyanna, but I was determined to establish a cycle of Mars Colony is a likely outcome. I think maybe after 10 years, or within a shorter period of time, we can do it, and I have to ensure that SpaceX does not die before this, also want to ensure that I did not; if I died, would continue to pick up the baton to do it.
YC: you shouldn't go first.
Elon Musk: first up is robots.
YC: you posted many opinions about AI. Can you describe what the future world of AI, how can we get there?
Elon Musk: AI the best way we can expect, is AI democracy means no one company or a small group can manage the AI technology. My fear is not that AI will have a sense of independence, but worried that some people will use it to do evil. This is the reason why we do OpenAI of this company, we want to spread the AI technology, let it not be only in the hands of a few.
Of course, this is in line with the high bandwidth interfaces connected to the cerebral cortex. We also have cortical and limbic system of the brain. Primary brain limbic system is, in charge of things like your intuition, and portion of the cerebral cortex is responsible for thinking, I think if we can be as good as AI and brain together, we can become "AI who" symbiont. And when everybody can be AI man when we also solved the problem of AI dictatorship. This is the best result I can think of.
YC:OpenAI established for 6 months, how are you developing now?
Elon Musk: I think it's very good, we have a very good team (it now has about 40 people), and they work hard. OpenAI is a non profit-making institutions, non-profit organizations are not urgent, but OpenAI is not, because it is doing is indeed imminent.
YC: one last question, how do you allocate your time?
Elon Musk: spend most on SpaceX and Tesla, of course, will try to allocate some time to OpenAI, about half a day a week.
Many people think that I spent a lot of time in the media, or business, but in fact I spend most of the time – about 80%--in engineering and design.
YC: I remember a long time ago you took me to visit the SpaceX, I was a very impressive, you know every detail of every project the rocket.
Elon Musk: Yes, nothing bad for Business Affairs, but I preferred engineering and design. Neither company has a special person to help me with a business finance law sales business, I spend most of my time with the engineering team to stay together.
马斯克：自己大约80%的时间花在工程和设计上 - 马斯克,特斯拉,SpaceX - IT资讯
【编者按】本文系整理YC合伙人Sam Altman采访Elon Musk视频而成。从对未来的预判聊到AI技术如何改变生活，从自我期望管理到时间分配，钢铁侠给我们带来了哪些新的启发？
YC：我们今年想聊一下关于你对未来的看法，以及人们应该超哪些方向努力。你有一个说法很有名，你说你年轻的时候认为世界上有5件最重要的事情要做，假设你现在是22岁，你觉得那五件事都是什么？
Elon Musk：首先，我觉得如果有人在做一些能让社会受益的事情，这件事总体上应该都是有价值的。不一定需要“改变世界”，只要为人们创造了高价值，哪怕是一个游戏或者帮人们更好地分享照片，如果能惠及足够多人，哪怕只是微小的进步，我觉得都是有价值的。
但是说回什么东西对未来的人类影响最大？我觉得还是AI，AI是我们在较近的未来需要认真对待的东西。
让AI发挥正面作用是未来至关重要的事。关于AI可能的危害我们已经谈论太多次，现在我们需要真的make it right了。所以，从事AI工作并确认它“正确地工作”是未来第一重要的事情。
第二重要的事情是基因工程。如果可以用基因重组的方式预防痴呆或者阿尔茨海默病，我觉得会非常有价值。
另外，想办法连接大脑会很重要，我们现在大脑和外界的交互太局限了（大脑的能力没有很好的输出），我们大脑的能力是超过email、电脑、手机或APP的，我们本来就是超人。
YC：时下年轻人中有一种很流行的说法：“我想成为Elon Musk”，你是年轻人的精神偶像。你觉得你年轻的时候做了哪些事情让你有现在的影响力？
Elon Musk：首先我得说，我志不在此，我无意成为谁的偶像。
实际上，25年前我在大学的时候就开始想这5件事了：移民外星球、可持续能源、互联网、基因改造和AI。一切是从我大学时候帮忙做电动汽车开始的，那时候我在实习，任务是研究电动车的电池容量会不会有突破性进展。后来去了斯坦福读博士，课题也是这个，但1995年我申请了退学，创办了一家互联网公司，因为当时确实觉得互联网技术处于一个剧烈的变革期，而我不想做一个旁观者——我当时也并不确定我的研究课题一定能行得通。
你可以拿很多专业的博士学位，但这些都可能对当下世界的发展没有实质的影响，而我当时一遍遍问自己“到底什么才是有用的”，我只是想做一个有用的人。
YC：现在如果人们想做一个有用的人是不是需要读一个博士学位？
Elon Musk：大部分都不需要。
YC：怎样才是“有用”的有效路径？
Elon Musk：只有很少一部分能work，大部分路都会通向失败。
YC：人们怎样才能找到能发挥他最大价值的路径？
Elon Musk：我觉得你可以估算一下，你要做的这个事情会对目前的状况有多少改善，能影响到多少人。要么对少数人产生非常大的影响，要么对多数人产生非常小的影响，最后计算的其实是这两个数字的乘积。
YC：你决定创办Space X的当时，这个举动看起来应该非常疯狂。
Elon Musk：非常疯狂，这一点我不讳认。如果开公司是为了实现最好的可控风险下的回报，那开这家公司本来就是一个疯狂的决定。不过那本来就不是我想要的。
我当时想到的是，如果没有人对太空科技做些改进，人们会永远被困在地球上。而最大的太空科技公司都没有兴趣去做彻底的创新，他们所想做的只是让那些陈旧的科技每年变好那么一点点。而事实是，有的时候科技甚至随着时间会变得更糟，尤其是火箭技术，1969年的时候，我们就可以登上月球，而之后空间站却只能把人送上近地轨道，再之后空间站都退休了。
人们有时候会觉得科技会随着时间自己变好，但实际上并不是的。只有当聪明人付出疯狂努力的时候它才会变好，如果没有这些努力，实际上科技是会退化的。
你看埃及，当初的金字塔建造技术已经失传了，象形文字也没人能看懂了，再比如古罗马的那些建筑也是一样。历史文明中有太多类似的例子。所以我觉得我们应该时刻记得，宇宙的熵并不站在我们这边。
YC：我很喜欢你身上的一点品质，那种虽千万人吾往矣的劲儿，哪怕别人指着你的鼻子说“你简直疯了”你也不为所动——虽然我认识很多疯子，但你还是最出类拔萃的那一个。很多人都在质疑你，你却很坚定，我想知道你的定力从何而来？
Elon Musk：我其实经常感到害怕——觉得害怕很正常，如果有人感觉不到害怕，可能是他精神上出了一些问题。
只不过我坚信我要做的事情足够重要，我对它的重要性毫不犹疑，让我觉得再难也要去做。
我创办SpaceX的时候就想过，它成功的概率只有10%，创办Tesla的时候也一样，其实一家电动车公司成功的概率也是极低的，所以我已经做好了一无所有的打算。宿命论某种程度上也有一些帮助，接受所有可能的结果会让你更好的抵御恐惧。
YC：你觉得站在今天看，我们移民火星的概率多大？
Elon Musk：我觉得挺大的。
YC：所以，我什么时候可以去火星？BTW，如果可以回来的话，我还是希望能回来。
Elon Musk：希望我不是盲目乐观，但是我很确定建立一个自循环的火星殖民地是一种可能的结果了。我觉得也许10年后，或者更短一点的时间内，我们就可以做到，而我必须确保SpaceX不在这之前死掉，也要确保我自己不会；如果我死了，也要有人继续接棒做下去。
YC：你自己不应该第一个上去。
Elon Musk：第一个上去的会是机器人。
YC：你发表过很多关于AI的观点。你能描述一下未来的AI世界是什么样，我们怎样才可以到达那里？
Elon Musk：我们能期待的AI最好的样子，是实现AI民主，意味着没有哪一个公司或者哪一个小团体可以掌控AI技术。我的担心并不在于AI会产生独立意识，而是担心有些人会用它作恶。这就是我们做OpenAI这家公司的原因，我们想把AI技术传播出去，让它不会只掌握在少数人手中。
当然，这也还是要配合连接到大脑皮层的高宽带接口。我们大脑中也有皮层和边缘系统。边缘系统就好像是原生的大脑，掌管你的直觉之类的东西，而大脑皮层负责的是思考的部分，我觉得如果我们能很好的把AI和大脑皮层连在一起，我们就能变成“AI人”共生体。而当每个人都能成为AI人的时候，我们也就解决了AI独裁的问题。这就是我能想到的最好的结果。
YC：OpenAI成立6个月，现在发展怎么样？
Elon Musk：我认为很好，我们有一个非常好的团队（现在有40个人左右），而且他们很努力。OpenAI是一个非盈利机构，一般非盈利机构都是不紧急的，但OpenAI不是，因为它做的事情的确是迫在眉睫。
YC：最后一个问题，你怎么分配你的时间？
Elon Musk：大部分花在SpaceX和Tesla上，当然，也会尽力分配一些时间给OpenAI，大约是每周半天。
很多人会以为我花了很多时间在媒介或者商务方面，但其实我的时间大多数——大约80%——都花在工程和设计上。
YC：我记得很久之前你带我去参观过SpaceX，我印象很深的是，你知道火箭的每一个细节每一项工程。
Elon Musk：是的，商务事务没什么不好，但我更喜欢工程和设计。两个公司都有专门的人帮我处理商务财务法务销售方面的业务，我的大部分时间都和工程团队待在一起。