Mito, cannot be said of the secret? -Mito, Cai Wensheng-IT information

If there is such a company, more than 95% of revenue from hardware sales in the first half, how do you give this company's business nature? Hardware manufacturers?

Sorry, Cai Wensheng doesn't think so.

Listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange disclosure materials, Mito defines itself as a mobile Internet company--it should be said that this is a very good reason. 446 million monthly active users, Internet companies all over the world can stand on the issue. Compare Sina weibo has just exceeded billion dollars market capitalisation, which the monthly active user "only" 282 million, Mito MAU to 164 million higher.

However, relative to the microblogging 1.438 billion in advertising revenue in the first half, advertising revenue of Mito just 25.9 million people wondering if this document is wrong decimal counting advertising revenue per user contributions, at least 80 times times more powerful micro-bobimeituxiuxiu.

Advertising cannot sell it doesn't matter, we have the self portrait artifact, there is Angelababy. As the company's main source of revenue, Mito mobile phones sold 289,000 units in the first half and created 556 million of sales revenue or per phone, the ex-factory prices up to 1903. In the era of the thousand performances playing God now, Mito mobile shows the attractiveness of high-value users.

However, this does not guarantee that the United States chart company mobile phones businesses make money, for what?

Because, in the first half of 2016, the company has spent more than 200 million in marketing expenses, and in 2015, the company spent 650 million marketing cost. For a company with annual incomes of less than 1 billion, 1.5 years spend 850 million on marketing, what is doing what? I'd like to know.

So, I listed this 412-page disclosure documents double from head to tail, wondering what Mito 850 million marketing spend where it went? No answers.

Companies emphasized that most of the budget was used to promote the company's products and brands, relatively low for smart phone. But relatively low in the end is how much?

Why are you obsessed with marketing costs consist of? Because Mito's business model, based on a somewhat subtle logic chain: APP's massive user base into a mobile phone consumers, revenue from mobile phones and then feed into APP development and operation of business. This story to make sense, it is necessary to prove that mobile customers are converted from the APP's user base, rather than buy from other third-party channels. If the latter is the case, that means unprofitable APP and shipments of mobile phones businesses are two separate stalls, no way to pack into an IPO, continue to tell the whole story.

Starting from the launch in 2013 Mito mobile phone, as of June 30, 2016, Mito mobile phones businesses today create margins for the company is 300 million, while marketing costs have reached the sum of nearly 1 billion. A simple problem is, the company obtained from the Mito mobile phone business margin, enough to cover the marketing expenses to pay for?

If marketing is relatively small, it means that either the United States mobile phone quality, do not need to advertise to sell out or APP users a high conversion rate, without relying on external resources, relying only on their own user transformation can support sales growth. No matter what kind of situation, you can support the United States chart company competitiveness but if marketing spending is very high, for example, exceeds the total gross profit of 300 million Yuan, this thing just looks like the IPO money income.

That is, beauty figure company for phone business spent has how many marketing costs, is whole listed file in most sensitive of a data: If this part costs of proportion partial high, on means with beauty tuxiuxiu huge of user group and no approach into into phone of consumers, company had to from external channel to looking for customer, mass user of variable now problem actually no solution; instead, if this proportion is low, means with only by itself user group of into on can completed large of phone sales, future of prospects on optimistic has many.

Picture of the specific composition of the company's huge marketing costs, is listed as a whole most analytical value of file data, but unfortunately, American companies seem to use it as a "can't say of secret."

Actually, this cannot said of secret behind, also has addition of a layer meaning: 2014 end of, company months active user is 184 million, just one years zhihou, this digital into has 372 million, turned has a, but with user scale is closely related to of advertising income just growth has 25%, to June 2016 end of, months active into has 446 million, but advertising income compared instead fell has 32%, that is, If we believe that figure most of their marketing costs are used to promote the APP, then, in the APP's monthly active user growth and associated marketing costs can be found, but could not find an association between advertising revenues.

In this age of your mobile traffic, such as oil, what kind of new users are created (user) the number, do not produce the (advertising) revenue? Does that mean new users in a large number of users is a low consumption power of third world countries? So consumers can afford the average retail price of close to 3000 us mobile phone? If not, this part of the user how you want to generate income in the future?

Unfortunately, in terms of internationalization, Mito is still very Dim, a single national and regional distribution of the number of users are not willing to provide, nor tell you States the number of signing up for the past year.

As China's most famous retouching tools, Mito understands the "beauty" of the road. So, after reading this 412-page file, I still cannot make accurate judgments about the investment value of the company, as it is difficult to export based on Mito photos to determine network whether the girl is stunning beauty or a mediocre fat powder. The disclosure of information, I can give you two completely opposite prospect assessment-

Optimistic version are: the company spent very little on marketing in the mobile phone business, has made today's achievements, and most of the marketing costs to buy APP users, these users are mainly distributed in the high consumption of the developed countries, is not advertising because there is no rush to commercialize ... ... This version of the Mito, performance excellence, a promising future.

And pessimistic of version is is: company actually spent off has several billion used to marketing beauty figure phone, but also only sold has now of number, Maori even cover can't advertising fee, and APP of original user most are on beauty figure phone dull, past two years of added user main concentrated in developed, value is low, future variable now prospects difficult measuring......

It is clear that this version was unable to support the level of billions of dollars behind valuations.

Existing information alone, we cannot know which version is closer to the above. Maybe beauty Supreme is really like, and hazy, so you can't see the facts as they are. But as an investor, management will share more detailed business information, it does not have the courage to join them and "the beautiful" dancing, after all, in the investment world, which should not be existed could not say secret, isn't it?

Author: rain-Feng app public number: Feng said the rain

美图秀秀，不能说的秘密？ - 美图秀秀,蔡文胜 - IT资讯

如果有这么一家公司，上半年超过95%的收入都来自于硬件销售，你如何给这家公司的业务定性？硬件制造商？

对不起，蔡文胜并不这么认为。

在港交所披露的上市材料中，美图秀秀把自己定义为移动互联网公司——应该说，这是有非常充分的理由的。4.46亿的月活跃用户，放在全世界的互联网公司里都可以排得上号。对比一下刚刚突破百亿美金市值的新浪微博，后者的月活跃用户也“仅仅”2.82亿而已，美图秀秀的MAU要高出1.64亿。

不过，相对于上半年微博14.38亿的广告收入，美图区区2590万的广告收入让人怀疑这份文件是不是算错了小数点，单纯计算每用户的广告收入贡献，微博比美图秀秀强至少80倍。

广告卖不出去没关系，我们有自拍神器，还有Angelababy。作为公司最主要的收入来源，美图手机上半年卖了28.9万部，并创造了5.56亿的销售收入，折合每部手机的出厂价高达1903元。在如今这个千元机性能逆天的时代，美图手机还是显示出了对高价值用户的吸引力的。

不过，这并不能保证美图公司靠手机业务赚到钱，为什么呢？

因为，在2016年上半年，这家公司花了2个亿在市场营销费用上，而在2015年，公司花费了6.5个亿的市场营销费用。对于一个年收入不到10亿的公司而言，一年半时间花8.5亿的营销费用出去，到底是做了一些什么呢？我很想知道。

于是，我把这份412页厚的上市披露文件从头翻到尾，想知道美图秀秀究竟把这8.5亿的营销费用花到哪儿去了？没有答案。

公司只是强调说，大部分预算都用来宣传公司的产品和品牌了，用于智能手机的比例相对较低。但相对较低到底是多少呢？

为什么要纠结于营销费用的构成？因为美图秀秀的商业模式，基于一个有些微妙的逻辑链条：APP的海量用户群转化为手机的消费者，手机带来的收入再反哺到APP的开发和运营业务当中。这个故事想要讲得通，必须要证明手机的顾客是从APP的用户群里转化过来的，而不是从其他第三方渠道花钱买过来的。因为如果是后者的情况，那就意味着不赚钱的APP和没销量的手机业务是两个互不关联的摊子，没办法打包成一个整体去IPO，整个故事就讲不下去了。

从2013年推出美图手机算起，截止到2016年6月30日，美图手机业务累计为公司创造的毛利是3亿，而同期公司营销费用的总和达到了近10亿。一个很简单的问题是，公司从美图手机业务上获得的毛利，是否足以覆盖为其支付的营销费用？

如果营销支出比较少，那就意味着要么美图手机品质优良，不需要打广告也能卖得出去，要么APP用户的转化率很高，不用靠外部资源，仅仅依赖自身用户的转化就可以支持销量增长。无论是哪种情况，都可以佐证美图公司的竞争力；但如果营销支出很高，譬如超过了累计毛利的3亿元，这件事情就显得很像是为了IPO花钱买收入的行为了。

也就是说，美图公司为手机业务花了多少营销费用，是整个上市文件里最敏感的一个数据：如果这部分费用的比例偏高，就意味着美图秀秀庞大的用户群并没有办法转化成手机的消费者，公司不得不从外部渠道去寻找顾客，海量用户的变现问题实际上没有解决；相反，如果这个比例很低，意味着仅靠自身用户群的转化就可以完成大量的手机销售，未来的前景就乐观了许多。

美图公司巨额营销费用的具体构成，是整份上市文件里最有分析价值的数据，可惜，美图公司似乎把它当做了“不能说的秘密”。

实际上，这个不能说的秘密背后，还有另外的一层含义：2014年底，公司月活跃用户是1.84亿，仅仅一年之后，这个数字变成了3.72亿，翻了一番，但跟用户规模息息相关的广告收入仅仅增长了25%，到2016年6月底，月活跃变成了4.46亿，但广告收入同比反而下跌了32%，也就是说，如果我们认为美图公司大部分的营销费用是用来推广APP产品了，那么，在APP的月活跃用户的增长和营销费用之间能找得到关联，但和广告收入之间找不到关联。

在这个移动端流量贵如油的时代，到底是什么样的新增用户是只创造（用户）数量，不产生（广告）收入的呢？是否意味着新增用户里大量都是低消费能力的第三世界国家的用户？这样的消费者能买得起平均零售价接近3000块的美图手机吗？如果不能，未来这部分用户要如何产生收入？

很可惜，在国际化方面，美图秀秀仍然还是很朦胧，连一张各个国家和地区的用户数量分布都不愿意提供，更不会告诉你过去一年多新增用户数的国家构成情况。

作为中国最出名的修图工具，美图秀秀深谙“美颜”之道。以至于，看完这份412页的文件，我仍然无法对这家公司的投资价值做出准确的判断，就像我们很难基于美图秀秀导出的照片，来判断网络对面的姑娘到底是绝色美女还是庸脂俗粉。就目前披露的信息，我可以给出两种完全相反的前景评估——

乐观的版本是：公司只花了非常少的营销费用在手机业务上，就取得了今天的成绩，而大部分营销费用都用来购买APP新增用户，这些用户主要分布在高消费的发达国家，之所以没产生广告收入是因为公司没有急于进行商业化……这个版本的美图秀秀，业绩卓越、前途无量。

而悲观的版本则是：公司其实花掉了几个亿用来推销美图手机，但也只卖出了现在的数量，毛利甚至覆盖不了广告费，而APP的原有用户绝大部分都对美图手机兴味索然，过去两年的新增用户主要集中在不发达国家，价值很低，未来变现前景难测……

很显然，后面这个版本是无法支持几十亿美金级的估值的。

仅凭现有的信息，我们无法知道事实究竟更接近于上述哪一个版本。或许美颜的至高境界就是似真似幻、朦朦胧胧，让你无法看清事实的本来面目。但作为投资者，在管理层愿意分享更多更详细的业务信息之前，实在没有勇气投身其中与“美”共舞，毕竟在投资的世界里，本来就不应当存在不能说的秘密，不是吗？

本文作者：雨枫 微信公众号：雨枫有话说