Youth report: China's high prices China steal jobs for young high employment rates | | | youth _ news

Original title: high prices steal jobs for youth?

Typhoon "Moranti" landed unbeatable after coastal, but in every corner of the downtown district, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, real estate agency at all without fear or favour, the housing industry is virtually the only denial of Typhoon general industry work.

According to local media reports, September 16, at 6 o'clock in the morning, 3,000 buyers appeared in Hangzhou Sales Office of the North-East of guangsha Tiandu, arrange two hours, 376 suites were sold out. This project for more than 10 years project, the ASP more than 10,000 yuan per square meter, but a few months ago, the average price was 6000 Yuan/square meter.

On September 10, Zhengzhou, conducted a lottery a real estate sale, a buyer stood on a Chair to find their number on the big screen. China cycle/Visual camera

Sky-high property prices so that local young people to bear. White collar in Hangzhou Wang Tao, with all due respect, starting from July showing, more and more hair. "Now rising trend simply out of breath, MOM and Dad a lifetime saving hundreds of thousands of Yuan, may have evaporated entirely within a week."

　If young people cannot survive, the city could not innovation

Market season "ten gold and nine silver" season, in 2016, with the outbreak of the impact on people's nerves. Both first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, is the second line of Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou and other places, prices reached record levels, frequently on the newspaper's front page.

Housing prices soared, "King" over and over, the number hit a record even. As of August 24, the China land turnover of over 1 billion yuan this year block a total of 300, and the first 8 months of last year was 150, compared with explosion 100%.

In addition, the price "Kings" also appear frequently. Single cases of more than 10 billion yuan total price "Prime" up to 4, located in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and four over 5 billion yuan, 24, 77 cases of more than 3 billion yuan. And, in addition to the strong first-and second-tier cities, Wuhan, Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Nanning, Fuzhou and other second-tier cities also began to become "King" appears frequently.

On September 11, China's State Council Development Research Center, former Deputy Director, Liu shijin, Deputy Chairman of the China Development Research Foundation at an economic round table meeting to denounce the grimace, but high prices for youth "injury"-"I think that if a city, young people feel the city's cost of living is too high, cannot survive when the city has no future. Beijing is such that some young people were going to buy a House, about 5 years ago, set all kinds of relationships, the so-called ' primitive ' can buy a House, a lot of people do not want this thing. If young people think the cost is too high in this city has moved up, this city is not innovation. ”

　　Why House prices are so crazy?

Former Chief Economist with guotai Junan securities, Li Xunlei, Chief Economist visions: trillion cases, residents from "savings" the idea, "aged" kinds of housing has become a household asset allocation, which contributed to rising property prices.

He pointed out that in the 10 years from the end of 2000 to the end of 2010, outstanding broad money (M2) compound growth rates of 18%, from 12.8 trillion expanded to 72 trillion. 10 years is also the largest house price growth for 10 years. But from the end of 2010 so far this 5.5 years, M2 and more than doubled. By 2010, rising mainly characterized by large-scale population migrations of population. After 2010, China's housing prices rose mainly as a monetary phenomenon, and that changes in the form of savings, real estate in big cities as a means of savings, in the case of money flooding not only more savings to large cities, and the allocation of financial assets and real estate is further improved.

Statistics show, has a Bank of support behind the crazy prices. As August end of, to shares listed company in the Jiangsu Bank, and peace Bank, and Pu sent Bank, and Chinese Bank and investment bank five home Bank of half reported for cases, 2016 first half of, investment bank personal housing loan put increased, first half of late balance reached 614.871 billion yuan, accounted for personal loan total of share up to 20.32%; and 2015 end of Shi, the company of personal housing loan accounted for than for 17.69%. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank late in the first half of this year totaled 337.951 billion yuan in individual housing loans, accounted for 46% of the total individual loans, and at the end of last year, individual housing loans accounted for only 44.36%.

Real estate loan data released by the Central Bank of China shows that increased personal loans of 2.36 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, has been close to 2015 annual limit of 2.66 trillion yuan.

August 12, according to data published by the Central Bank of China, in July this year 463.6 billion yuan in new loans, lowest since July 2014. Even more important is that almost all mortgages in July new loans. This suggests that real estate outside of the real economy cannot obtain funds from the financial system.

Haitong securities Chao Jiang team pointed out that the macro-analyst, 2015, the residents ' wealth allocation once again tilted towards the real estate, residents credit growth also rose sharply. Resident loan growth is close to 20% in the first half of this year, far exceeding the deposit growth, which corresponds to the consumer long growth has mortgages Ultra 30%, in contrast, residents of other loan growth, shrunk to 7%. Residents in lowering deposit interest rates and financial yields, coupled with the pressure of rising property prices, are driven to enter the real estate market. According to the team's calculations, new mortgage loans in the first half of this year and the ratio of new residential sales (purchase marginal leverage) 55%, has exceeded the United States, and Japan its historic peak. "Residents of Fortune real estate, will inevitably lead to the hollowing out of the economy! ”

　High housing prices squeezing small and micro businesses, and youth employment

Real estate's "monopoly" obviously formed the crowding out effect.

Semi-annual reporters listed companies found that, due to the overall macroeconomic slowdown, high quality of housing loans in the banking sector "Xiang Bobo", and small and micro enterprises began to be left out. A number of joint-stock banks point out that, except residents of high prices to stimulate demand, but in recent years the Bank will "defend" asset quality as the first priority. In contrast, high security housing loan was welcomed most of the listed Bank's personal housing loan rate of around 0.5%, well below the average of 1.83%.

First half of 2016, ping an Bank Small Business Finance Division managing loans of 81.751 billion yuan, compared with earlier this year dropped by 12.48%. The line is interpreted as, under the influence of macro-economic, micro-enterprises operating difficulties, exacerbated the risk of small customers. China Merchants Bank small loans from the compressed 310.777 billion yuan at the end of last year to 292.191 billion yuan at the end of the first half of this year, fell to 5.98%. Its report, the Bank's bad loans increase 77% concentration in manufacturing, mining and construction industries in three industries, after assets structure optimization, these industries total compression 7.67%.

The other hand, high prices for huge pressure on young workers ' employment and survival.

Luo Wanli, a professor at Nanhua University, said China's housing market prices, first-tier cities, housing prices have more than 90% workers or not. Even Zhengzhou, Wuhan, two or three lines of urban House prices, most of the residents are unable to pay the purchase. Some residents even if the purchase also has severe crowding in their entire household consumption.

Yi xianrong, an economist wrote that a prestigious university graduates working in Beijing for 5 years, calculated on a yearly salary of 100,000 yuan, 5-year savings of up to 200,000 yuan. Two 5-year savings of up to 400,000 yuan. Two people get married in Beijing to buy a 100 square meters of housing, both who savings have male and female both parents the life's savings, only to pay for the down payment on a House. In this case the purchase, crippling debt burden will come soon. Meanwhile, housing prices are too high, has severe crowding out of consumption not only for buyers but renters also have significant crowding out of consumption. Because the prices are too high, housing rents and prices will rise rapidly.

High prices that many firms were forced to relocated elsewhere, but also "force" a portion of the young people. According to Shenzhen land planning board data March 2016 Shenzhen prices of new homes rose 3.9%, 49989 Yuan/square meter, out of two cities Beijing, Shanghai 20%. Meanwhile, Shenzhen crowding of land and housing prices are too high for other industries gradually in recent years because of rising rent costs and labor costs significantly, many manufacturers felt the pressure, was forced to move back to the factory abundant human resources, lower-cost cities.

Luo Wanli believes that just this year Shenzhen "company relocation" event is proof of that. Overall increase in prices is too high will cause the entire operating costs. Enterprises ' operating costs plus the economic "l" cycle, collapse in living space, solution or moved out of the high prices of the city, thereby reducing the employment opportunities of the city; or holding down workers ' wages and even layoffs burden.

In other words, the high prices not only emptied buyers ' wallets, and steal people's employment opportunities.

? Youth online reporter of China Youth daily Honc non

Responsible editor: Gao Yuying

Article keywords:
High price youth employment, Hangzhou, Zhejiang

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中青报:中国的高房价悄悄偷走中国青年的饭碗|高房价|就业|青年_新闻资讯

　　原标题：高房价悄悄偷走青年的饭碗？

　　强台风“莫兰蒂”登陆沿海后所向披靡，但在浙江杭州市中心的各个角落，房产商丝毫无惧，使房产业几乎成了唯一拒绝在台风天放工的普通行业。

　　当地媒体报道称，9月16日清晨6时，3000名购房者出现在杭州东北部的广厦天都城售楼处，放盘的两小时之内，376套房源售罄。这个立项10余年的项目，此次销售均价超过了1万元/平方米，可几个月前，均价还是6000元/平方米。

　　9月10日，郑州，某楼盘进行摇号售房，一位购房者站在椅子上在大屏幕上寻找自己的号码。 周波/视觉中国 摄

　　高涨的房价让当地青年难以承受。杭州白领王涛直言，从7月开始看房，越看心里越发毛。“现在上涨的趋势让人根本就喘不过气来，爸妈一辈子攒了几十万元，一个星期内就可能完全蒸发了”。

　　如果年轻人待不下去了，这个城市也无法创新

　　楼市销售旺季“金九银十”的时节，在2016年以爆发的方式冲击着全民的神经。无论是北京、上海、广州等一线城市，还是二线的郑州、苏州、杭州、南京等地，房价创历史新高，频频登上报纸的头版。

　　房价飙升，“地王”遍地，数量之多甚至创下了历史纪录。截至8月24日，今年中国单宗土地成交金额超过10亿元的地块共有300宗，而去年前8个月为150宗，同比暴增100%。

　　除此之外，总价“地王”也频繁出现。单宗地超过100亿元的总价“地王”达到了4宗，分布于深圳、上海、杭州、天津四地；超过50亿元的有24宗，超过30亿元的有77宗。并且，除了一线和强二线城市，武汉、济南、石家庄、南宁、福州等二线中城市也开始成为“地王”频繁出现的区域。

　　9月11日，中国国务院发展研究中心原副主任、中国发展研究基金会副理事长刘世锦在一场经济圆桌会上痛斥这一怪相，直言高房价对青年的“伤害”——“我觉得如果一个城市，年轻人觉得这个城市生活成本太高，待不下去的时候，这个城市是没有未来的。北京就是这样，有一些年轻人本来打算买房子，大概在5年前，集各种关系，所谓‘洪荒之力’还能买房子的话，现在很多人已经不想这个事了。如果年轻人觉得这个城市成本太高已经待不下去了，这个城市也无法创新。”

　　房价为何如此疯狂？

　　曾任国泰君安证券总经济师、首席经济学家的李迅雷视角独特：在货币超发的情况下，居民从“储蓄养老”这一理念，变为“买房养老”，住房成为中国家庭资产配置的主要品种，这推动了房价不断上涨。

　　他指出，从2000年末至2010年末的10年间，广义货币（M2）复合增长率为18%，即从12.8万亿扩张到了72万亿。这10年也是房价涨幅最大的10年。但是从2010年末至今这五年半内，M2又翻了一番多。2010年之前，房价上涨主要表现为以人口大规模迁徙为特征的人口现象。在2010年之后，中国的房价上涨主要表现为货币现象，即居民储蓄形式的变化，大城市房产作为一种储蓄手段，在货币泛滥的情况下，不仅更多的居民储蓄流向大城市，而且金融资产和房地产的配置比例也进一步提高。

　　统计数据显示，疯狂的房价背后有着银行的鼎力支持。截至8月底，以A股上市公司中江苏银行、平安银行、浦发银行、华夏银行和招商银行五家银行的半年报为例，2016年上半年，招商银行个人住房贷款投放加大，上半年末余额达到6148.71亿元，占个人贷款总额的比重高达20.32%；而2015年年底时，该公司的个人住房贷款占比为17.69%。浦发银行今年上半年末个人住房贷款余额为3379.51亿元，占个人贷款总额的46%，而在去年年底，个人住房贷款占比只有44.36%。

　　中国中央银行公布的房地产贷款数据显示，今年上半年个人购房贷款增加2.36万亿元，已逼近2015年2.66万亿元的全年额度。

　　8月12日中国中央银行发布的数据表明，今年7月新增贷款4636亿元，创2014年7月以来新低。更为重要的是，7月的新增贷款中几乎全是房贷。这表明，房地产外的实体经济基本没有从金融体系获得资金。

　　海通证券宏观分析师姜超团队指出，2015年以来，居民财富配置再次向房地产倾斜，居民贷款增速也大幅走高。今年上半年居民贷款增速接近20%，远超存款增速，其中对应房贷的居民消费性中长贷增速已超30%，反观居民其他贷款增速则大幅缩水至7%。居民面对不断降低的存款利率和理财收益率，再加上房价不断上涨带来的压力，被驱使进入房地产市场。根据该团队的测算，今年上半年新增房贷与新增住宅销售额之比（购房边际杠杆率）达到55%，已超过美国、日本历史峰值。“居民财富地产化，势必会导致经济的空心化！”

　　高房价挤压小微企业和青年就业

　　房地产的“一家独大”形成了明显的挤出效应。

　　记者查询上市公司半年报发现，由于整个宏观经济增速放缓，银行业内质量高的住房贷款成为“香饽饽”，而小微企业开始被冷落。多家股份制银行的人士指出，除了高房价刺激的居民购买需求外，近年来银行将“保卫”资产质量作为自己的第一要务。相对而言，高安全性的住房贷款受到欢迎，多数上市银行的个人住房贷款不良率均在0.5%左右，远低于1.83%的平均水平。

　　2016年上半年，平安银行小企业金融事业部管理的贷款余额817.51亿元，相比今年年初下降了12.48%。该行解释为，受宏观经济影响，小微企业普遍经营困难，加剧了小微客户的经营风险。招商银行小微贷款余额也从去年年末的3107.77亿元压缩到今年上半年末的2921.91亿元，降幅为5.98%。观其报表，该行不良贷款增量77%集中在制造业、采矿业和建筑业三个行业，经过资产结构持续优化，上述行业贷款总额压缩7.67%。

　　另一方面，高房价对青年职工的就业和生存带来了巨大压力。

　　南华大学教授罗万里称，就目前中国的住房市场价格而言，一线城市的住房价格早已与90%以上工薪阶层无关。即使是武汉、郑州这样二三线城市的房价，多数的居民也是无支付能力购买。有些居民即使购买，也会对其整个家庭消费具有严重的挤出效应。

　　经济学家易宪容撰文指出，一个名牌大学毕业生在北京工作5年，以年薪10万元计算，5年积蓄至多20万元。两个人5年积蓄也至多为40万元。两个人结婚要在北京购买一套100平方米的住房，两个人积蓄还得加上男女父母双方一辈子的积蓄，只能够支付这套住房的首付。在这种情况下购房，严重的债务负担马上就来。同时，房价过高，不仅对购房者具有严重的消费挤出效应，而且对于租房者也具有严重的消费挤出效应。因为，房价过高，住房的租金价格同样会快速上涨。

　　高房价令不少企业被迫外迁的同时，也“逼走”了一部分年轻人。据深圳规划国土委的数据，2016年3月深圳新房成交均价环比上升3.9%，高达49989元/平方米，超出另外两座一线城市北京、上海达20%。同时，深圳地价和房价过高对其他行业的挤出效应逐步显现，近年由于租金成本和人力成本的明显上涨，不少制造企业感受到了巨大压力，被迫将工厂搬回了人力资源丰富、成本较低的城市。

　　罗万里认为，今年沸沸扬扬的深圳“华为外迁”事件已是明证。房价过高会导致整个企业营运成本全面上升。而企业的营运成本上升遇上经济的“L”型周期，生存空间骤降，解决的方法或是迁出高房价的城市，从而减少了这些城市的就业机会；或是压低企业工人的工资水平，甚至裁员减负。

　　换句话说，高房价不仅掏空购房者的钱包，也在悄悄偷走人们的就业机会。

　　中国青年报·中青在线记者 洪克非

责任编辑：高玉营

文章关键词：
高房价 就业 青年 浙江杭州

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