The Renminbi "iron bottom" has broken the four man's wallet is hurting
Today (October 10), is the first day of trading after the national day holiday, while the middle price of RMB fell 230 points! 6.7008, a 6-year low!
All over the world are closely watching the case, falling below the central parity of RMB "iron bottom" has raised the anxiety and speculation.
The Renminbi "iron bottom" are broken and huge hidden mystery?
In fact, during the national day holiday, offshore renminbi have been subjected to attacks, today fell 7.6%, 6.7184 minimum hitting, first falling below "iron bottom."
Under the influence of Fed rate hike expectations, the dollar rose, combined with sterling, "Flash crash" caused rise in global risk aversion, the offshore renminbi exchange rate following the "Flash crash". Which increase the Renminbi's exchange rate depreciation expected onshore RMB exchange rate under pressure.
Since mid-July, Yuan 6.7 is the key points against the dollar, China's Central Bank maintains the position apparently at this critical point.
Said Liu Dongliang, China Merchant Bank asset management senior analyst, Yuan rate below 6.70 per large psychological impact on the market, the market might understand to a certain extent, China's Central Bank loosened 6.70.
If the index continues to remain strong in the short term, the RMB central rate and the spot rate will fall further at the stage near the end of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, both of which are possible to gradually test 6.72 6.73 per cent.
Be careful! A great influx of deadly play
Outside in addition to the impact of the international financial market against the Yuan, there is one worth paying attention to. Is that China's foreign exchange reserves continued to set a new 5-year low. Indicates funds are selling assets and out of China.
Market analysis, monetary easing and currency, money to hedge assets, became the main carrier of the property market. But current prices rise too fast, just past the national day Golden Week, domestic first-tier and second-tier cities have ante real estate purchase limited credit policy, market turnover fell to freezing point.
Financial media said Liu Xiaobo, and cool at the same time, will also bring a huge challenge: the effects of Yuan-denominated assets to make money less hot money could instead increased purchases of US dollars so as to have an impact on RMB exchange rate.
After the cool, hot money needs a new place to go. Because of the economic downturn, China's Central Bank can not continue to cut interest rates, good, and certainly not raise interest rates. So, the hot money certainly don't want to go back to the Bank. Many people think of gold, the dollar. Due to the dollar before the second rise, the price of gold continued to be suppressed, so the dollar may be more sought after.
Article forwarded by the Central Bank of China, said the devaluation relatively small
This morning, the China foreign exchange trading center under the China currency issue of the September index remain basically stable RMB exchange rate, China's Central Bank official website reproduced in this paper. Points out that October 10 market makers quote form the Yuan parity rate of 6.7008 Yuan against the dollar compared with September 30 days before the devaluation of the Yuan-dollar central parity. But with developed economies, currency and other currencies of emerging economies, depreciation is relatively small, CFETS measured appreciation of RMB exchange rate index remains. Changes with reference to a basket of currencies, Yuan bilateral exchange rate against the dollar rose to reduce is normal, will continue floating in the near future.
Medium-and long-term see, China often project keep surplus, and reserves ample, and financial status good, and financial system sound of fundamentals decided has Yuan not exists long-term devaluation of based, October 1 Yuan official joined SDR currency basket Hou outside subject will holdings Yuan assets, which brings of long-term Exchange into also helps further improved exchange supply and demand, Yuan on a basket currency exchange rate will continues to keep in reasonable balanced level Shang of basic stable.
Appreciation of the current devaluation as the hot money speculation correct
The Xinhua News Agency reported on September 29, fan gang, a member of the Chinese Central Bank's monetary policy Committee to attend the 12th session of the Beijing-Tokyo Forum in Tokyo, said a lot of hot money speculation the Yuan a few years ago, cause the Yuan to appreciate, the current devaluation is corrected for this. Moreover, the current RMB exchange rate is pegged to a basket of currencies, devaluation of the pound sterling and the euro in the basket, the Yuan should be lower.
Fan Gang said in an interview with Bloomberg television on September 8 that the Government will appropriate regulation allowing the Yuan to slowly depreciate, triggered heated debate. Fan Gang said at that time, the current United States interest rate hike cycle, the dollar's long-term bullish, the Yuan should not follow up, but should be followed by other weaker currencies. Chinese Government will moderate control of the exchange rate, allowing the Yuan to slowly depreciate.
Yuan will remain relatively stable
Analyst Han realignment, said Yuan offshore market quotation at the bank market and not directly related to the middle price of RMB, no matter how offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the people's Bank will not adjusted according to its central rate. Under the pricing mechanism, RMB largely depends on how filtering mechanisms play a role.
Was made, the four man's wallet is hurting
For friends back home, and 6 x 2 can get to $ 1 last year, now takes 6 to 7, don't know that in the future will be more expensive – but all in all, this node need in dollars is not unconsciously tighten his wallet? Earn $ smiling, right? Next we have to look at, a big devaluation and friends are dealing with what has been the impact of the dollar:
RMB exchange rate for your money to do
When the devaluation of the Renminbi appreciation of the external and internal, so that consumption and investment in the offshore market (Overseas), exchange for equivalent products and services;
When the devaluation of the external and internal appreciation of the Renminbi, and between consumption and investment in the domestic market to purchase products and services.
If internal and external there is expectation of devaluation, only as soon as possible to diversify assets and manpower and configuration is the best solution to avoid risk.
15 years of 90% are in fact poorer!
In recent years, the Central Bank of China, China adopted a looser monetary policy, led to a large amount of money pouring into the capital markets, pushing up prices in one or two cities.
Rookie finance micro-letter made public, the article points out:
Core because of the high prices on the market have too much money. The money was not, but was "printed", and printed money into the property market, so now the prices it is a monetary phenomenon, out of actually needs.
But the money is not evenly distributed into the hands of each of us. Since wealth is not evenly distributed, that would lead to in fact transfers of wealth, the gap is widening, and our money will become worthless, relatively high property price is actually the value of our money.
So there are times when you feel that your monthly income is higher, income has increased, is increasing every year (in fact, many people fail to do this), but the fact is you're not getting richer.
Because this kind of thing is the rich and relatively speaking, the key is to look at your personal wealth as a proportion of total social wealth in growth or lower. Put it another way, due to personal wealth did not increase, most of the people are actually getting poorer.
Comprehensive online Gold (ID:cnfol-com), observer network, and news information on financial, CCTV, finance, Wall Street (wallstreetcn), the rookie money (cainiaolc)
(Editors: xiaowugang UN845)
2016-10-11 17:15:13
China business
人民币“铁底”已破 这四类人的钱包将很受伤
今天（10月10日），是国庆假期后的首个交易日，而人民币中间价却狂跌230点！报6.7008，创6年新低！
在全世界都密切关注着的情况下，人民币中间价跌破“铁底”，引发了各方的不安和猜测。
人民币“铁底”已破，暗藏巨大玄机？
其实国庆期间，离岸人民币已遭受一轮袭击，累计大跌7.6%，最低触及6.7184，率先跌破“铁底”。
受美联储加息预期影响，美元指数大涨，加之英镑“闪崩”事件造成全球避险情绪上升，离岸人民币汇率跟随“闪崩”。这都增加了人民币汇率贬值预期，在岸人民币汇率也因此承压。
从7月中以来，人民币兑美元6.7是关键点位，中国中央银行在这个关键点位的维护比较明显。
招商银行资产管理部高级分析师刘东亮表示，人民币中间价跌破6.70，对市场心理影响较大，市场可能会理解为某种程度上中国中国中央银行松绑6.70。
如果短期内美元指数继续保持强势，则人民币中间价与即期汇率将进一步下跌，在美联储年底临近升息的阶段，二者都可能逐步测试6.72至6.73。
小心！一大冲击将惨烈上演
除了国际金融市场对人民币的冲击以外，还有一个数据值得关注。那就是中国外汇储备继续刷新了5年新低。预示了各路资金正在抛售人民币资产，并流出中国。
市场人士分析，此前货币宽松加上人民币贬值，资金寻找保值资产，楼市成为主要载体。但当前房价上涨过快，刚刚过去的国庆黄金周，国内一线和二线城市纷纷加码房地产限购限贷政策，楼市成交一度跌至冰点。
财经传媒人刘晓博表示，楼市降温的同时，也将带来的一个巨大挑战：人民币计价资产赚钱效应减弱，热钱可能转而增持美元，从而对人民币汇率产生冲击。
楼市降温之后，热钱需要新的去处。由于实体经济不景气，中国中央银行现在能不继续降息就不错了，肯定不能加息。所以，热钱肯定不愿意回银行。很多人都想到了黄金、美元。由于在美元第二次加息之前，黄金价格仍然受到压制，所以美元可能受到更多的追捧。
中国中央银行转发文章，表态称贬值幅度相对较小
今日上午，中国外汇交易中心旗下中国货币网发布《9月份人民币汇率指数保持基本稳定》，午后中国中央银行官网转载此文。文章指出，10月10日做市商报价形成的人民币兑美元汇率中间价为6.7008元，较节前9月30日人民币兑美元汇率中间价有所贬值。但与发达经济体货币和其他新兴经济体货币相比，贬值幅度相对较小，CFETS测算的人民币汇率指数仍是升值的。参照一篮子货币变化，人民币对美元双边汇率升贬都是正常的，未来还将继续双向浮动。
中长期看，中国经常项目保持顺差、外汇储备充裕、财政状况良好、金融体系稳健的基本面决定了人民币不存在长期贬值的基础，10月1日人民币正式加入SDR货币篮子后境外主体将增持人民币资产，由此带来的长期外汇流入也有助于进一步改善外汇市场供求，人民币对一篮子货币汇率将继续保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
目前人民币贬值是对此前热钱炒作升值的纠正
新华社9月29日报道称，中国中国中央银行货币政策委员会委员樊纲在东京参加第12届北京-东京论坛时表示，前几年大量热钱炒作人民币，导致人民币升值，目前贬值正是对此的纠正。而且，目前人民币汇率盯住的是一篮子货币，篮子里的英镑和欧元都贬值了，人民币也应该走低。
樊纲曾在9月8日接受彭博电视采访时表示政府将适度调控允许人民币缓慢贬值，引发市场热议。樊纲当时称，当前美国处于加息周期，美元长期看涨，人民币不应该跟着美元涨，而应该跟着其他货币走弱。中国政府会适度控制汇率走势，允许人民币缓慢贬值。
人民币还将保持相对稳定
外汇分析师韩会师称，离岸市场的人民币报价和在岸市场的人民币中间价定价没有直接关系，无论离岸人民币汇率如何波动，人民银行也不会依据它对中间价进行调整。根据中间价定价机制，人民币中间主要取决于过滤机制如何发挥作用。
有人赚了，可这四类人的钱包很受伤
对于国内的朋友而言，去年6块2能换到1美元，现在需要花6块7了，以后不知道会不会更贵——但总之，现在这个节点，需要用美元的是不是不自觉地捂紧了钱包？赚美元的就偷着乐了吧？接下来我们分别来看看，这一大贬值对于和美元打交道的朋友们都有哪些影响：
人民币汇率变动 你的钱怎么办好
当人民币对外升值、对内贬值时，让消费和投资发生在离岸市场上（海外）换回等价的产品和服务；
当人民币对外贬值、对内升值时，把消费和投资留在国内市场之间购买产品和服务。
如果人民币对内、对外都存在贬值预期下，唯有尽快进行多元化资产的统筹和配置才是规避风险的最佳解决方案。
15年来90%的人事实上变穷了！
近年来，中国中国中央银行采取了较为宽松的货币政策，导致了大量的资金涌向了资本市场，推高了一二线城市房价。
菜鸟理财微信公众号发的一篇文章指出：
其实房价居高不下的核心原因在于市场上流通的钱太多了。这些钱本来是没有的，但被“印出来”了，印出来的钱到了楼市去，所以现在的高楼价其实已经是一种货币现象，脱离了实际上的需求。
然而这些钱是不可能平均分配到我们每个人手上的。既然财富无法平均分配，那就会导致事实上的财富转移，贫富差距被拉大，同时我们手中的钱会变得越来越不值钱，相对高楼价来说我们的钱实际上是在贬值的。
所以有时候你觉得你的月收入高了，年收入增加了，每年都在增加（实际上很多人连这个都做不到），但事实上你并没有变得更有钱。
因为贫富这种事情是相对来说的，关键是看你的个人财富占社会总财富的比例是否在增长或者降低。换一种说法就是，由于个人财富并没有同比例增长，大部分人实际上是在变得越来越穷。
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(责任编辑：肖武岗 UN845)
2016-10-11 17:15:13
中国经营报