United States Treasury Department reiterated that China was not a currency manipulator

Photo: vision China

United States Treasury last time in Obama's Presidency declined to label China a currency manipulator, said China's recent support of RMB exchange rate in order to prevent the devaluation of the local currency quickly undermine the global economy.

And in April this year, United States Treasury Department, in its annual global exchange-rate policies will be in China, Japan, South Korea and Germany in foreign exchange control observer list, different is the country and Canada into Switzerland, and manipulate objects in Exchange for three conditions, China only meet one, reported in April that China meets two conditions.

The Treasury believes, no evidence to show that the United States any of the major trade partners meet the legal definition of a currency manipulator, China recently managed to support its currency in order to prevent the Renminbi depreciate rapidly damage the global economy.

United States Treasury Department on a watch list three conditions are: the United States significant bilateral trade surplus, a substantial current account surplus, continuing unilateral currency intervention. If China is included in the next report still only meets one of the criteria, there may be excluded from the list.

Previous United States accused other countries manipulate currency is in President Clinton's in 1994, United States means China is manipulating its currency. United States does not clear any major trading partners as a currency Manipulator.

Therefore, if the label China a currency manipulator, means that United States practices of a major shift in the past more than 20 years, China will face the United States retaliatory measures of risk.

According to the 1988 entry into force of the United States Trade Act, United States Treasury Department must submit a States currency report to Congress every six months to assess the exchange rate policies of the countries and regions in the world, decide which countries and regions for purposes such as to gain competitive advantage with manipulating their currencies.

If more than one country or region to meet the three conditions of the Ministry, the Treasury report found its currency manipulation, United States Government will work with the so-called "currency manipulator" talks are likely to impose sanctions on these countries.

Recent analyst to a falling short

United States Treasury Department issued before the latest semi-annual assessment, Friday was just over seven across the central parity of RMB. Yuan central parity for a seventh day on Thursday reduced a record longest continuous drop since January this year. At offshore fell to 6.7299 on the day, refresh a six-year low for the third time this week, four days down 0.8%.

Friday's Yuan central parity by 139 points on Thursday, raised for the first time in 8 days, and the maximum increase for more than three weeks. Friday night, on-shore Yuan against the dollar closing at 6.7271 than Thursday night slightly fell 15.

By Bloomberg as Julian Trahorsch, speculated that the most accurate foreign exchange Analyst believes that currency fall further this year will be limited to the 0.3%, or-0.7% next year. Perhaps even before the end of next year as the capital inflow and China Enterprise debt pay down the rebound.

But Bank of America Merrill Lynch offshore end of 2017 expect Exchange rates to 7.25 per cent against the dollar. Helen Qiao, the analyst said, Yuan central parity against the dollar recently surpassed 6.7, is due to formally incorporate the G20 Summit, as well as key events such as SDR is over, policymakers would like to adjust the RMB exchange rate.

Helen Qiao, believes that further to allow its currency to weaken to monetary easing in the short term the only way; in addition, capital outflows, or find new ways to circumvent the Bank on its "window guidance" limit.

(Editors: Xu Yonggang UN006)
2016-10-15 09:18:40
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美国财政部重申：中国不是汇率操纵国

图片来源：视觉中国

　　美国财政部在奥巴马总统任期内最后一次拒绝给中国贴上汇率操纵国的标签，称中国最近支撑人民币汇率是为了防止本币快速贬值损及全球经济。

　　和今年4月时一样，美国财政部在其全球汇率政策半年报中将中、日、韩、德四国列入外汇操纵观察名单，不同的是这次其中国和加拿大入了瑞士，而且这次在符合外汇操纵观察对象的三项条件之中，中国只满足一项，4月报告认为中国符合两项条件。

　　财政部认为，没有证据表明美国任何一个主要贸易伙伴符合汇率操纵国的法律定义，中国最近设法支撑人民币汇率是为了防止人民币迅速贬值损害全球经济。

　　美国财政部列入观察名单的三大条件是：与美国存在明显的双边贸易顺差、实质性经常项目盈余、持续进行单边外汇干预。若中国在下一次报告中仍只满足其中一个条件，则有可能从该名单中剔除。

　　上一次美国指控其他国家地区操纵汇率是在克林顿任总统的1994年，当时美国指中国为操纵汇率国。此后美国还没有将任何主要贸易伙伴明确列为汇率操纵国。

　　因此，若中国贴上汇率操纵国的标签，则意味着美国过去20多年来的习惯做法出现重大转变，中国将面临美国采取报复措施的风险。

　　根据1988年生效的美国《贸易法》，美国财政部必须每半年向国会提交一份各国汇率报告，评估全球各国和地区的汇率政策，判定哪些国家地区出于获得竞争优势等目的有操纵本币汇率的行为。

　　一旦某个国家或地区满足以上财政部的三项条件，财政部报告认定其操纵汇率，美国政府就将与所谓“汇率操纵国”展开谈判，有可能对这些国家进行制裁。

　　人民币近期跌跌不休 分析师仍看空

　　美国财政部发布最新半年报评估之前，人民币中间价本周五刚刚结束七连降。本周四人民币中间价连续第七天下调，创今年1月以来最长连降纪录。当日在岸人民币收跌至6.7299，本周第三次刷新六年新低，四天累计跌0.8%。

　　本周五人民币中间价较周四上调139点，为8天以来首次上调，且上调幅度为逾三周最大。周五当晚，在岸人民币兑美元收报6.7271元，较周四夜盘微幅下挫15点。

　　被彭博新闻社列为外汇推测最为准确的分析师Julian Trahorsch认为，人民币今年进一步的下跌空间将局限在0.3%之内，明年或再跌0.7%。甚至有可能在明年底之前随着资本流入和中国企业负债量逐步偿还而反弹。

　　但美银美林将在岸人民币兑美元2017年末预期汇率降至7.25。其分析师乔虹称，最近人民币兑美元中间价突破6.7，是由于G20峰会以及正式纳入SDR等关键事件已结束，政策制定者希望再次调整人民币汇率。

　　乔虹认为，进一步允许人民币走弱可能为短期内货币宽松的唯一方式； 此外，资本外流或找到新的途径去规避在岸对其的“窗口指导” 限制。

(责任编辑：徐永刚 UN006)
2016-10-15 09:18:40
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