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published in(发表于) 2016/11/2 9:15:16
Chinese life expectancy remaining differences: Beijing, Shanghai, more than 80 years old, less than 70 years old in Yunnan province,

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Chinese life expectancy remaining differences: Beijing, Shanghai, more than 80 years old, less than 70 years old in Yunnan province-IT information

On October 25, the CPC Central Committee, the State Council of China issued the "China health 2030" programme (hereinafter referred to as the platform), the platform States that, by 2030, "people's physical fitness increased, 2030 the average life expectancy of 79.0 years, average healthy life expectancy significantly. ”

Popular terms, "average life expectancy 79 years" refers to 2030 nationals born this year that they expected on average live to be 79 years old. But this figure shall be calculated based on the current population data and, therefore, more is reflected in the indicators present, is measure the current level of socio-economic development and health services.

Differences: Beijing and Shanghai the average life expectancy is over 80 years old, the Western provinces there are gaps

According to the sixth census in 2010, the average life expectancy of 74.9 years.

Province, Shanghai, Beijing has more than 80 years old, far ahead of other provinces. Expected more than 70 years old, has 26 provinces (cities, districts), three areas of Qinghai, Yunnan, Tibet expected to live in the 68-70 range.

First Shanghai and the bottom of Tibet, expected age 12.09.

Ranked in the top 15 provinces (cities, districts) there are 13 to the East (South) of the coastal area, behind all the inland provinces. Something different.

55 national life expectancy growth 32 years old

From the perspective of average life expectancy data, 1960 to 2015, 55 years of China's national average life expectancy rose 32.64, an increase of 75%. According to the data of the World Bank in 1960, the average life expectancy is 43.35, 1970 for 58.68, 1980 to 66.52, 1990 was 69.03 years 2000 to 71.73 years old 2010 75.01 years, to 2015, 75.99.

Data also showed that from 2012 onwards, Hong Kong of China become the region with the highest average life expectancy in the world, 2014 the average up 83.98, exceeding Japan 83.58, Japan has long been the world's highest average life expectancy in the country.

What factors affect life expectancy?

Positive factors: income

If you pull a contemporary Chinese per capita GDP value curve, and nearly 60 years of life expectancy value draws a curve, both of which are rising from southwest to Northeast, income there is a relationship between life expectancy and national values.

Demographers samiuer·pulesidun studied economy there is a strong correlation between per capita income and life expectancy. Through the experiences of various countries around the world study, Kepler found that, in General, the individual was born in rich countries than in poor countries live longer lives. This discovery is known as classical "Preston curve" (Preston Curve).

Surging News (thepaper.CN) through the World Bank and the World Health Organization database, 2015 166 countries global (data not released in some countries) of GDP per capita and life expectancy data collection through the scatter chart can be seen, developed country is located on the right of the chart (high GDP per capita, life expectancy), African countries located lower left (low low GDP per capita, life expectancy). China is located in the lower left position (relatively high life expectancy and relatively low per capita GDP).

Without regard to inheritance, education, medical, environmental and other factors of the premise, according to per capita GDP and average life expectancy two-phase data presented charts, can be expected to be, in per-capita income of Chinese residents has great growth potential in the case, the average life expectancy continues to increase.

Negative factors: the prevalence of major diseases

Effect of economic factors for the average life expectancy is positive and the other side, the prevalence of significant disease was negative. Press the surging again through the World Health Organization database, listed 144 countries around the world (some unpublished) average life expectancy and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS data through scatter diagrams found in parts of Africa is located on the left (high AIDS rates, low life expectancy), Japan and other countries in Europe and is located in the lower right (low HIV/AIDS prevalence rate, high life expectancy). Is the world's highest HIV prevalence rate in Swaziland in Africa, HIV prevalence rates as high as 27.73%, the average life expectancy is only 58.9.

Although the high prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland are not the determinants of its low life expectancy, high AIDS rates indicate that the poor standard of medical facilities in the country, very few people can have access to medical and health services, and increased mortality.

Major diseases, such as AIDS, cancer, heart disease, malignant disease, become an important factor in a country's national life expectancy.

Education, health, the environment, public safety, food

Both GDP per capita and the prevalence of major diseases do not constitute causal relationship in life expectancy and per capita, average life expectancy of the high and low is the result of multiple factors are interrelated.

In samiuer·pulesidun of research in the, "Preston curve" reveals has a phenomenon, dang per capita GDP cumulative to must degree Shi, per capita expected life of growth curve became extremely flat, that early per capita GDP of growth will great degree Shang promote people of expected life; but income became medium partial Shang Hou, must in food security, and medical, and education, and public security, and disease control work, many improve to effective to upgrade national of expected life.


中国人预期寿命存差异:北京上海超过80岁,云南不到70岁 - IT资讯

10月25日,中共中央、中国国务院印发了《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》(下称《纲要》),《纲要》指出,到2030年,“人民身体素质明显增强,2030年人均预期预期寿命达到79.0岁,人均健康预期寿命显著提高。”

通俗来讲,“人均预期寿命达到79岁”是指,2030这一年出生的国民,他们预计平均能够活到79岁。但由于这一数字须基于当前人口环境数据计算,因此,该指标更多是体现当下,是衡量当前社会的经济发展水平和医疗卫生服务水平。

东西差异:京沪人均预期寿命已过80岁,西部省份尚有差距

据第六次人口普查数据,2010年中国人均预期寿命为74.9岁。

分省来看,上海、北京均已超过80岁,遥遥领先其他省份。预期超过70岁的有26省(市、区),青海、云南、西藏三地预期寿命处于68至70岁区间。

第一位的上海与最末位的西藏,预期年龄相差12.09岁。

排在前15个省(市、区)中有13个属于东(南)部沿海地区,排在后面全部为内陆省份。东西差异巨大。

55年国民人均预期寿命增长32岁

从人均预期寿命历史数据看,1960年至2015年,55年间中国国民的平均预期寿命增长了32.64岁,增幅达75%。据世界银行数据,1960年中国人均预期寿命为43.35岁,1970年为58.68岁,1980年为66.52岁,1990年为69.03岁,2000年为71.73岁,2010年为75.01岁,至2015年为75.99岁。

数据还显示,从2012年开始,中国香港成为世界上人均预期寿命最高的地区,2014年人均预期达83.98岁,超过日本的83.58岁,而日本长期以来都是全球人均预期寿命最高的国家。

哪些因素影响人均预期寿命?

积极因子:经济收入

如果将中国当代人均GDP值拉一条曲线,同时也把近60年的人均预期寿命值画一条曲线,二者都是从西南向东北攀升,经济收入与国民预期寿命值之间存在某种关系。

据人口学家萨缪尔·普勒斯顿研究,经济收入和人均预期寿命之间存在着强相关关系。通过对全世界各个国家进行经验研究,普勒斯顿发现,一般来说,出生在富裕国家的个体要比生活在贫穷国家活得更长久。这一发现被称为经典的“普勒斯顿曲线”(Preston Curve)。

澎湃新闻(thepaper.cn)通过世界银行和世界卫生组织数据库,将2015年全球166个国家(部分国家数据未公布)的人均GDP和人均预期寿命数据收集,通过散点图可以看出,发达国家位于图表的右上(高人均GDP、人均预期寿命高),非洲国家位于左下(低人均GDP、较低人均预期寿命)。中国位于偏左下位置(相对较高的人均预期寿命、相对较低的人均GDP)。

在不考虑遗传、教育、医疗、环境等因素的前提下,根据人均GDP和人均预期寿命两相数据呈现出来的散点图,可以预期的是,中国居民在人均收入有较大增长潜力的情况下,人均预期寿命可以继续增加。

消极因子:重大疾病患病率

经济因素对于人均预期寿命的影响是积极的,另一面,重大疾病的患病率却是消极的。澎湃新闻再次通过世界卫生组织数据库,列出全球144个国家(部分国家未公布)人均预期寿命和艾滋病患病率数据,通过散点图发现,非洲部分国家位于左上(较高艾滋病患病率、低人均预期寿命),欧美日等国家位于右下(低艾滋病患病率、高人均预期寿命)。全球艾滋病患病率最高的国家是非洲的斯威士兰,艾滋患病率高达27.73%,人均预期寿命只有58.9岁。

虽然斯威士兰的高艾滋病患病率并不是导致其低人均预期寿命值的决定因素,但高艾滋病患病率表明了该国极差的医疗设施水平,极少的民众能够享受到医疗卫生服务,从而提升了死亡率。

重大疾病,如艾滋、癌症、心脏病等恶性疾病,成为制约一国国民预期寿命的重要因素。

教育、医疗、生态环境、公共安全、食品

无论人均GDP还是重大疾病患病率都不与人均预期寿命构成因果关系,人均预期寿命的高低是多重因素相互交织的结果。

在萨缪尔·普勒斯顿的研究中,“普勒斯顿曲线”揭示了一个现象,当人均GDP累计到一定程度时,人均预期寿命的增长曲线变得极其平缓,即早期人均GDP的增长会极大程度上促进民众的预期寿命;但收入变得中等偏上后,必须在食品安全、医疗、教育、公共安全、疾控工作等多方面提高才能有效地提升国民的预期寿命。





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