Chinese labour for 5 years reduced by 20 million, accounted for 4% of high skilled talents-IT information
Influence of population structure changes on China's economy is gradually made explicit, quantity and quality of the working-age population in recent years "double" the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure has been formed reversed trend.
Zeng xiangquan, China Institute for employment Director in the 19th "2016 annual meeting of the Chinese society of labor economics" is expected in 2016, the working-age population continues to decline, almost 5 years to reduce the number of about 20 million, labour supply reduction in labor costs rise, industries replace labor transfer and technology become the trend of the future.
Institute of population and labor economics, Chinese Academy of social sciences said Zhang Chewei, current college graduates to China's new "half", the quality of the workforce and has been a fundamental change in structure, labour markets can no longer provide traditional manufacturing industries also needed simple labor, high investment model of economic development cannot be sustained in the past.
The working-age population accelerated reductions
15~59sui, China's working-age population peaked at 925 million people in 2011, 2012 in 2011 compared with 3.45 million, this is the first decrease in the working-age population. 2012 began to decline, 2013 and 2.44 million in 2014, decrease of 3.71 million in 2015, reduction of 4.87 million.
Xiangquan forecast decline in 2016 at least 2015 years or decline will be even greater. "Even if calculated in accordance with 487wanlai, the 5 years total working-age population fell 19.34 million people, this is not a small sum. ”
The decline in the working-age population is in the process of China's economic development had to face reality. People Club spokesman Li said in 2015, the working-age population fell to 911 million, will continue to decline, and by 2030 will drop sharply, the average annual reduction rate of 7.6 million people. By 2050, one Department is predicting the working-age population of about 830 million to 700 million by 2030.
Zeng xiangquan believes that rapid rise in labour costs labour supply continued to decline in recent years, industry-wide average remuneration growth rate growth around 10%, 2011, for example, is 11.3%, 10.5% 2012, 2013 9.7%. Many foreign-funded enterprises in recent years out of China turned to South-East Asia, and is directly related to the rapid rise in labour costs in China.
The reduction in labour supply also led to increase in frequency and scale of human resource flows. Data show that turnover rate of labour-intensive enterprises in 2011 to 35.5%, 37.2% 2012, 2013 36.2%. Zeng xiangquan said even companies to reflect the employee's turnover reached 50%, and labor disputes have occurred frequently, these bring Enterprise human resource management challenges.
Labour and skills of "scissors"
Must be another factor in the transformation of the industrial structure of China labor force age structure and knowledge are no longer human resources required to support traditional manufacturing industries in the past.
From the more than 20 years of reform and opening up to the beginning of the century, workers in manufacturing lines for age restrictions are very strict, they "pinched tip" use of young workers with the highest labor productivity until the "peasant worker shortage" after appearing in a wide range, and was obliged to release the age limit.
The "shortage" is behind the 15~24sui youth labour declined substantially. Zeng xiangquan, 15~24sui youth labour is the apparent decline in working-age population groups, in 2006 this group has 120 million people, predicts that by 2020 will be down to 60 million. This corresponds to 55~65sui of the working-age population will rise, workforce aging.
Zhang Chewei first financial reporters, with the popularization of higher education in these years, knowledge of the Chinese labor force structure is changing, for a long time in the past, new jobs each year over half of the population is below junior secondary education level, they become cheap labour in manufacturing.
Skills gap is a major worry in economic transformation and upgrading in China
Now the situation is different than in the past, and the gross enrollment rate of higher education reached 44%, 2015 University graduates accounted for 50% of the new workforce, and junior high school education accounted for about 20%. "The quality of the workforce and a radical change in the structure, high input model of development cannot be sustained in the past. "Zhang Chewei said.
Zhang Chewei believes that changes in the Chinese economy is economic growth and physical capital growth weakens, and contact with human capital becomes stronger, it is also slowing GDP growth and employment was better than expected reasons.
"Encountered problem is that labour are better educated now, but college students ' qualities and skills upgrading of industrial structure evolution of requirements is not matched, bringing risks of structural unemployment, students ' practical skills and market demand has some gaps. "Zhang Chewei said.
Skills gap is a major worry in China's economic transformation and upgrading. According to current labour market only accounts for 4% of high skilled talents in China, ordinary skilled workers accounted for 20%, do not have the skills in 76%.
2014 Kelly service index report shows global employees, currently 92% number of Chinese enterprises ' core competitiveness by the workforce and capacity (quality) a shortage of, in which the labor quality is particularly outstanding.
Zeng xiangquan first financial reporter, said, we must attach importance to training and human capital investment, alleviate structural problems in the labour market. Financial training in recent years has invested a lot of money, but the effect is not obvious. Next step should be to strengthen the evaluation of training programs, improving the efficiency of training, spend the money wisely.
中国劳动力5年减少2000万，高技能人才仅占4% - IT资讯
人口结构变化对中国经济的影响正在逐步显性化，近年来劳动年龄人口数量和质量的“双变”已经对产业结构的升级转型形成倒逼之势。
中国就业研究所所长曾湘泉在19日举行的“2016年中国劳动经济学会年会”上预计，2016年劳动年龄人口继续下降，近5年累计减少的数量约为2000万，劳动力供给的减少导致人工成本上升、产业转移和技术替代劳动成为未来的趋势。
中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所所长张车伟表示，当前大学毕业生占到了中国新增劳动力的“半壁江山”，劳动力的素质和结构已经发生了根本变化，劳动力市场也再难以大量提供传统制造业所需的简单劳动力，过去高投入的经济发展模式无法持续。
劳动年龄人口加速减少
中国15～59岁劳动年龄人口在2011年的时候达到峰值9.25亿人，2012年比2011年减少345万，这是劳动年龄人口的首次下降。2012年开始逐年下降，2013年减少244万，2014年减少371万，2015年减少487万。
曾湘泉预测2016年至少将保持2015年的降幅，或者下降幅度还会更大。“即使按照487万来计算，这5年来劳动年龄人口总共下降了1934万人，这不是一个小数目。”
劳动年龄人口的下降是中国经济发展过程中不得不面对的现实。人社部新闻发言人李忠曾表示，2015年中国劳动年龄人口下降至9.11亿，还会持续下降，而且到2030年以后将会出现大幅下降的过程，平均以每年760万人的速度减少。到2050年，人社部预测劳动年龄人口会由2030年的8.3亿降到7亿左右。
曾湘泉认为，劳动力供给持续下降带来劳动成本的迅速上涨，近年来全行业薪酬增长率平均增速保持在10%左右，比如，2011年为11.3%，2012年10.5%，2013年9.7%。不少外资企业近年来撤离中国转向东南亚，与国内劳动力成本的快速上升有直接的关系。
劳动力供给的减少还引发了人力资源流动频率与规模的增大。数据显示，劳动力密集型企业离职率2011年为35.5%，2012年37.2%，2013年36.2%。曾湘泉说，甚至有企业反映员工的离职率达到了50%，同时劳动争议也频发，这些都给企业人力资源的管理带来严峻挑战。
劳动力学历和能力的“剪刀差”
中中国国产业结构必须进行转型的另一个因素是劳动力年龄结构和知识结构都无法再支持过去传统制造业所需的人力资源。
从改革开放到本世纪初的20多年间，制造业流水线对于工人的年龄限制非常严格，它们“掐尖”使用劳动生产率最高的年轻工人，直到“民工荒”大范围出现之后，才不得不放开年龄的限制。
“民工荒”的背后是15~24岁青年劳动力的大幅下降。曾湘泉表示，15~24岁青年劳动力是劳动年龄人口下降最明显的群体，2006年这个群体有1.2亿人，预测到2020年将会下降到6000万。与此相对应，55~65岁的劳动年龄人口将出现上升，劳动力结构趋于老化。
张车伟对第一财经记者表示，随着这些年来高等教育的普及，中国劳动力的知识结构也在发生变化，在过去很长一段时间，每年新增就业人口中有一大半是初中文化程度以下的，他们成为制造业中的低廉劳动力。
技能人才的缺口将是中国经济转型升级的一大隐忧
如今情况已经和过去不同，高等教育的毛入学率达到44%，2015年大学毕业生约占到新增劳动力的50%，初中以下文化程度约占20%。“劳动力的素质和结构发生了根本变化，过去高投入的发展模式无法持续下去了。”张车伟说。
张车伟认为，中国经济正在发生的变化是经济增长与物质资本的增长联系变弱，而与人力资本联系变强，这也是GDP的增速放缓而就业却好于预期的原因。
“现在遇到的问题是虽然劳动力教育水平提高了，但大学生自身素质与技能产业结构演化升级要求不尽匹配，带来结构性失业风险，大学生实际技能与市场需求存在一定差距。”张车伟说。
技能人才的缺口将是中国经济转型升级的一大隐忧。数据显示，目前中国劳动力市场高技能人才只占4%，普通技能人才占20%，没有技能的占到76%。
2014年《kelly service全球雇员指数报告》显示，目前92%的中国企业核心竞争力受到劳动力队伍数量和能力（质量）短缺的影响，其中，劳动力质量问题尤为突出。
曾湘泉对第一财经记者称，必须重视培训和人力资本投资，缓解劳动力市场的结构矛盾。近年来财政在劳动力培训上投入了大量的资金，但效果并不明显。下一步应该加强对培训项目的评估，提高培训的效率，把钱花在刀刃上。