Trump without TPP, China is opening up?

"Disaster"?

United States eastern standard time on November 21, the United States elected President, Trump said, he will be on his first day in Office issued an exit the trans-Pacific partnership agreement (the TPP) notice of intent.

Trump was in one hundred days after taking office announced its programme of the ruling made the announcement in a video. Trump said that the TPP on the United States, is a potential disaster, "we will negotiate fair trade agreements to replace the TPP, which for the United States bring jobs and industry opportunities. ”

Trump and he was immediately attracted much attention, because the United States exits is tantamount to announcing TPP stranded.

In fact, this is not news. As early as a month ago, on October 22, Trump during a speech at Gettysburg, had discussed article 7 protection United States worker measures, one of which is "I will withdraw from the trans-Pacific partnership agreement". Looking further ahead, Trump has repeatedly asked during the election who has actually read that more than 5,000 pages of the TPP agreement. "It was a bad deal," he said.

"The United States, not international" banner of Trump, TPP is the United States was a "disaster", lies in the TPP framework trade treaty is the United States of "loot" and stole United States workers ' employment opportunities. According to his logic, TPP agreement upholds free trade, United States manufacturing labor cost is high, no market competitiveness of industrial products, such as greater free trade, United States trade deficit would increase, and then against the United States of manufacturing jobs and the United States economy as a whole.

Heritage

TPP is Obama trying to retain an important legacy. When Trump released the video, Obama is Peru's APEC informal leaders ' meeting for the 24th time in Lima. He asked Trump across the mere chanting of empty words, "what elections and governing are two different things." In Lima during the "lame duck President" Obama successively met with TPP member countries leaders, says United States will continue to support trade, strengthening the commitment to developing relations with the Asia-Pacific region, strong support apart TPP immediately wherever he goes.

TPP was dubbed by some "kick butt", Trump has indeed played Barack Obama does not.

TPP has 12 members. However, as the Eastern Pacific power, China is not in the list of Member States, and it is this subtlety.

During the Obama administration, in accordance with its strategic vision around the world laid a great deal of authority. As rapidly as over Iraq, and Afghanistan two wars at the same time, this great chess entry point is the Middle East, from the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, remission and Iran relationship, and improve relations with the Islamic world, reset button with Russia, and all these changes the center of gravity falls in the Asia-Pacific, top priority is China. The ultimate goal of this game is to make the 21st century is still "United States centuries", while China has been identified as the most likely of the century challenge United States hegemony "imaginary enemy."

In a world that has changed in the United States as China is unlikely to contain the Soviet Union in the last century, and played a very impressive card, which is "international rules". Unwarranted scooped up on the issue of the South China Sea, United States "international rules" say in the economic and trade issues, "international rules" say. The existing international economic order, on economic and trade issues said it is home to the World Trade Organization, since joining the Organization, China where society "international rules," said the ability to continuously strengthened, United States is difficult to continue to do whatever they want. Thus, United States forced the TPP will become in economic and trade fields in China's "economic alliance." Obama repeatedly with respect, United States rather than China should become the new "international rules" makers. United States, 12 countries last October on the TPP agreement, signed in February this year the text of the agreement, but the agreement remains to be ratified by national legislatures to take effect.

Obama's chess is not suitable, he has not approved by TPP, Trump finally stirred TPP's Bureau.

Japan

TPP member countries, Japan is undoubtedly the closest partners. In addition to the overall framework of TPP and "Abe economics" step outside, this has a strong "politicization of economic and trade relations" agreement of color with the Abe Government from geopolitical strategy to contain China's calculus on the right way.

Trump was elected to Japan's calculus, Japan series of measures highlighting the gaffe. On November 10, the Japan House of representatives by virtue of the ruling coalition and Japan the party holds a majority of seats, forced approval of the TPP and related bills. On November 17, Abe ran in New York, "Trump Tower", became the world's first meeting with Trump's national leaders. MOM's Abe also likes Golf Club gave Trump a handle. Needless to say, save the TPP is one focus of Abe's public relations.

Trump went ahead and still adhere to exit the TPP might as well as badly kicked by Japan. Abe Trump video after the advent of 21st, without United States participation in TPP is meaningless. United States's exit will be destroyed by the TPP complex balance of interests of the participating States. Meanwhile, Japan apart from outside its own Senate ratification of TPP, also called for the other 11 countries also do so. One Japan scholar put it very bluntly, TPP include Japan's international political interests, Japan, TPP is not only regional economic integration, is Japan in pursuit of international voice and influence, an important tool for a counterweight to China and the carrier was Japan involved in developing a set of international guidelines "plays".

China

TPP to be shelved for China with a larger swing space strategy, but many citizens cannot trump this kick some butt and simple to "awaken". Trump vowed to "negotiate fair trade agreements" that China should head for how to stand in a new strategic structure and size up the situation.

United States rule of politics is an election promise is one thing, can deliver is another matter. Has not officially entered the White House, Trump on multiple issues in a subtle change in the tone has, so will issues in multilateral trade agreements.

This is nothing new. Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, "as the United States workers win more jobs" by clearly opposing the North American free trade agreement and the Korea-us free trade agreement and subsequent development is backed out. Now, Obama's version of the TPP may have been abandoned, replaced by a revamped Trump presidential version.

As businessmen have benefited in the rapid development of globalization of Trump will find that globalization tide does make the optimum allocation of factors of production United States domestic low-skilled jobs lost, but he was unable to iron and steel, textile and garments, home appliances, such as a full-service environmental pollution, labour-intensive industries moved from around the world or in the United States reconstruction.

Shout to exit from the TPP is likely to Trump is in the execution of a hard, to retreat into the strategy. In addition to this has been to his benefit in the general election, he said the attitude will be forced to exit the TPP United States negotiator in United States higher prices and make concessions.

Promoting the Asia-Pacific economic integration, promoting regional trade and investment liberalization and facilitation of trade arrangements, this is the trend, has a "double-edged sword" effect of depth is catalyzed by the global value chain reconstruction of economic globalization, will lead to resurgence of protectionism. Chaos bit is the most sensible choice.

More attention to bilateral economic and trade relations Trump to look down on China, the world's second-largest economy. In fact, working for United States workers Trump has to create more employment opportunities for the large scale infrastructure construction has a new plan, and in these areas, China and the United States has a lot of converging interests of the two countries.

Not the politicization of economic and trade relations, more pragmatic cooperation for China and the United States brings tangible benefits to the people of the two countries. At a new historical starting point, China and United States relations has a lot of new opportunities.

(Editors: Biao Guo UN832)
2016-11-22 23:22:34
Integrated

特朗普不搞TPP，中国机会来了？

“灾难”?

　　美国东部时间11月21日，美国当选总统特朗普称，他将在上任后的第一天就发布一项退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（简称TPP）的意向通知。

　　特朗普是在一个宣布其上任后百日执政纲领的视频中做出上述宣布的。特朗普说，TPP对美国而言是一个潜在灾难，“我们将协商公平的双边贸易协议以取代TPP，这将为美国带来工作和产业机会。”

　　特朗普此言立即引来极大关注，因为美国的退出便等于宣布了TPP的搁浅。

　　其实，这并不是新闻。早在一个月前的10月22日，特朗普在葛底斯堡发表演讲时，就已经阐述了7条保护美国工人的措施，其中一条便是“我将宣布退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”。再往前看，大选期间的特朗普曾多次反问有谁真正读过那份五千多页的TPP协定。“那是一项糟糕的交易”，他说。

　　在打着“要美国主义，不要国际主义”旗号的特朗普看来，TPP之所以对美国是个“灾难”，便在于TPP框架中的贸易条约是对美国的“打劫”，抢走了美国工人的就业机会。依据他的逻辑，TPP协议主张各国自由贸易，美国制造业人工成本高，工业品没有市场竞争力，如更大程度施行自由贸易，美国贸易逆差将加大，进而不利于美国制造业就业和美国整体经济。

遗产

　　TPP是奥巴马极力挽留的重要政治遗产。特朗普放出那段视频之时，奥巴马正在秘鲁的利马参加亚太经合组织第二十四次领导人非正式会议。他向特朗普隔空喊话，“你怎么选举与如何治国是两回事”。在利马期间，“跛鸭总统”奥巴马相继会晤TPP成员国领导人，表示美国还会继续大力支持贸易、强化与亚太地区发展关系的承诺，强撑马上散架的TPP场子。

　　TPP被一些人戏称为“踢屁屁”，特朗普此举无疑将奥巴马踢得不轻。

　　TPP有12个成员国。然而，作为太平洋东岸大国，中国并没有在成员国名单之上，这便是此事最为微妙之处。

　　奥巴马当政期间，根据其战略构想在全世界布下一个很大的局。在尽快结束伊拉克、阿富汗两场战争的同时，这盘大棋的切入点是中东，从解决巴以冲突、缓解与伊朗关系入手，进而改善与伊斯兰世界关系，重启与俄罗斯关系，而所有这些调整的重心落在亚太，重中之重便是中国。这盘棋的最终目的在于使21世纪仍为“美国世纪”，而中国则被认定为最有可能在本世纪挑战美国霸主地位的“假想敌”。

　　在一个已经变化了的世界里，美国已经不可能像上个世纪遏制苏联一样遏制中国，于是打出了一张很冠冕堂皇的牌，那就是“国际规则”。在无端搅起的南海问题上，美国拿“国际规则”说事儿，在经贸问题上，也拿“国际规则”说事儿。在现有国际经济秩序中，在经贸问题上说事儿的主场是世界贸易组织，加入这个组织以来，中国在这里学会拿“国际规则”说事儿的本领不断加强，美国已难继续为所欲为。于是，美国强推的TPP便成为在经贸领域制约中国的“经济北约”。奥巴马多次直言，美国而不是中国应成为新的“国际规则”的制定者。美国等12个国家去年10月就TPP协议达成一致，今年2月正式签署协定文本，但协议还需获得各国立法机构批准才能生效。

　　奥巴马这盘棋下得处处不顺，他在任内无法令国会通过批准TPP，特朗普最终搅了TPP的局。

日本

　　在TPP成员国中，日本无疑是跟得最紧的伙伴。除了TPP的总体框架与“安倍经济学”合拍外，这一有着浓厚“经贸关系政治化”色彩的协定也与安倍政府从地缘战略上遏制中国的小算盘对路。

　　特朗普的当选让日本的小算盘乱了套，也让日本的一连串对策突显失态。11月10日，日本众院凭借执政党联盟和日本维新会占有的多数席位，强行表决TPP批准案和相关法案。11月17日，安倍一路小跑到了位于纽约的“特朗普大厦”，成为整个世界上第一个会见特朗普的国家领导人。尽力堆笑的安倍还投其所好送了特朗普一柄高尔夫球杆。不用说，挽救TPP肯定是安倍此次公关的重点之一。

　　特朗普不为所动，仍坚持退出TPP，不啻为狠狠地踢了日本一下。安倍在特朗普视频问世后的21日表示，没有美国的参与，TPP将失去意义。美国的退出将破坏由TPP参与国达成的错综复杂的利益平衡。与此同时，日本除推动本国参院批准TPP外，还呼吁其他11个国家也如此办理。一位日本学者说得很直白，TPP包含着日本的国际政治利益， 对日本而言，TPP不仅是区域经济一体化问题，更是日本追求国际话语权和影响力、制衡中国的重要工具和载体，是日本参与制定另一套国际准则的“重头戏”。

中国

　　TPP的遭搁置确实为中国提供了更大的战略回旋空间，国人却不能因特朗普此举踢了某些人的屁屁而头脑简单地“笑醒了”。特朗普誓言将“协商公平的双边贸易协议”，中国应头脑清醒地为在新的战略格局中如何自立自强而审时度势。

　　美国政坛的潜规则是大选承诺是一回事，能否兑现是另一回事。还未正式进入白宫，特朗普在多个问题上的口风就已经有了微妙的改变，在多边贸易协定问题上也会如此。

　　这不是什么新鲜事。奥巴马2008年参加总统竞选时，曾以“为美国工人赢得更多工作机会”等为由明确反对北美自由贸易协定和韩美自由贸易协定，事后的发展都是出尔反尔。如今，奥巴马版的TPP可能已被抛弃，代之以一个改头换面的特朗普总统版。

　　作为商人也曾在全球化迅猛发展中受益的特朗普会发现，生产要素全球化最优配置的大潮确实使得美国国内低技能就业岗位流失，但他无法将从钢铁、纺织到服装、家电等全套污染环境、劳工密集型产业从全球各地搬回或在美国重建。

　　喊着要从TPP退出的特朗普很可能也是在施行一种欲擒故纵、以退求进的策略。除此举已使他在大选中获益外，他称要退出TPP的姿态会逼得美国的谈判对手们为了美国更高的要价而做出让步。

　　促进亚太经济一体化、促进区域贸易投资自由化与便利化的贸易安排，这是大势所趋，有着“双刃剑”效应的经济全球化正在催化全球价值链深度重塑，也会招致贸易保护主义回潮。乱象之中，因势利导才是最为明智的选择。

　　更为重视双边经贸关系的特朗普难以轻视中国这个世界上第二大经济体。事实上，致力于为美国工人创造更多就业机会的特朗普已对进行大规模基础设施建设等有了新的规划，而在这些领域，中国和美国两国有着诸多利益汇合点。

　　不将经贸关系政治化，多多务实合作，才能为中国和美国两国百姓带来实实在在的好处。处于历史新起点上的中国和美国关系其实有着不少新机遇。

(责任编辑：郭彪 UN832)
2016-11-22 23:22:34
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