Japan scholar: China into the Asia-Pacific region-led United States sooner or later withdraw | | Asia Pacific Japan | China News
> File photo: first aid flights of the Ministry of transport of the South China Sea in search of one fishing boat carrying the wounded. Xinhua News Agency
Reference news, December 11 Austria the news publication of the newspaper website on December 6 to Japan by Keio University Professor, National Security Council Adviser fine interview with Gu Xiongyi, spoke of how Trump would further undermine the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and other issues. Interview excerpts are as follows:
The news reporter asked: what is Donald Trump was elected President of the Asian impact? In particular, he has hinted that the United States will pull out.
Fine Gu Xiong answers: in East and Southeast Asia is currently experiencing very contradictory: in the economy of the region is the most dynamic in the world--but it's also the most dangerous. In Beijing for a long time in the United States retreated as the goal, to conduct themselves as leading foothold in the region – in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did. If the Americans withdraw, China will carry out its plan. Because Beijing will not close the military opponent.
Q: Trump hopes ending the trans-Pacific partnership agreement (TPP), and import tariffs on Chinese goods. What will be the consequences?
Answer: does Trump really would do that we will have to wait. Because the United States damage and enhance Chinese power: the United States will exit from one of the most economically dynamic region, while China ranks as the leading economic force and thereby consolidate its geopolitical position. After all, China's regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement is a model relative to the TPP and TPP failed, Japan would join the former. China, Korea and Japan agreement between is also possible.
Q: you anticipate the United States would withdraw it? Or is is just bravado during the election?
A: we should keep the United States pressure, so as to make it stay. But at the same time we should see the reality: sooner or later the Americans will withdraw from Asia--even if Hillary Clinton is elected, it is prepared to do so. Trump just speed up the early stages of a trend. United States reluctant to burden the protection of Korea, and Japan, or is the cost of the Philippines and other countries. But this makes it more vulnerable to attack: China in the South China Sea, military bases, and now by the nuclear-powered submarine of the Pacific can directly to United States territory to launch attacks. If Beijing took the lead in the area, and United States are shackles.
Q: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Trump talk about this question?
Answer: Abe has taken a sensible approach: he will be on the TPP future and security details of the cooperation were deleted from the agenda. He just said, and Japan cooperation will make the United States "more important". It's Donald Trump, he loves Abe. Trump dislike of multilateralism, but like the bilateral agreements. He will be glad to have an ally in Asia.
Q: Trump, Japan has the bomb is not a problem. Japan's "peace" defense policy ended up on this yet?
A: China's biggest worry is Japan militarized. This will not happen, even if Japan hard-liners so require. We do not seek to develop any nuclear weapons programs. Such a move would further undermine stability in the region. Nevertheless, the United States withdrawal will strengthen Japan's regional influence. The country has learned to peacefully resolve the crisis. Feeling threatened neighbours and we are close.
Q: North Korea is another destabilizing factor. "Trump" will affect it?
A: North Korea's foreign policy was driven by internal rather than external factors. However, North Korea has recently proposed a new nuclear bargain. I held a meeting with the North Korean delegation in Beijing. Conditions for negotiations in Pyongyang is the United States and China for nuclear disarmament. This means that is impossible to renounce nuclear weapons, and North Korea's wish to be recognized as a nuclear State.
Q: which Trump will accept?
Answer: it is possible. Trump made it clear that he refuses to present international order--including the nuclear non-proliferation system. Trump may be reached an agreement with North Korea. But it could prompt Korea to nuclear expansion, and so on. I believe that this desertion of international law is one of the new Presidency's biggest risk, especially in Europe and Japan for multilateralism.
Source: references
>: Tang Kang Yunkai
Article keywords:Asia Pacific Japan China United States
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日本学者：中国将成亚太地区主导 美国迟早撤出|亚太地区|日本|中国_新闻资讯
>资料图片：交通运输部南海第一救助飞行队在搜寻观察一艘载有伤员的渔船。新华社发
参考消息网12月11日报道 奥地利《新闻报》网站12月6日刊发该报对日本庆应大学教授、国家安全委员会顾问细谷雄一的专访，其中谈及了特朗普会如何进一步破坏亚太地区的稳定等问题。访谈摘编如下：
《新闻报》记者问：唐纳德·特朗普当选总统对亚洲有哪些影响呢？尤其是他已经暗示了美国将抽身而退。
细谷雄一答：东亚和东南亚目前正经历非常矛盾的时期：在经济方面该地区是世界上最具活力的——但同时也是最危险的。很长时间以来北京就以美国撤退为目标，以便自己作为地区主导站稳脚跟——就和当时苏联在东欧所做的那样。如果美国人撤退，中国就将贯彻它的计划。因为届时北京就没有势均力敌的军事对手了。
问：特朗普希望结束《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP）并对中国商品实行进口关税。这会产生哪些后果呢？
答：特朗普是否真会这么做我们将拭目以待。因为这会对美国造成损害，并增强中国人的力量：美国将从一个最具经济活力的地区退出，而中国则会跃居为主导的经济力量并借此来巩固其地缘政治地位。毕竟中国的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》是与TPP相对的一个模式，如果TPP失败，日本可能会加入前者。中国、韩国和日本之间缔结协议也是可能的。
问：您预计美国真会撤出吗？还是说不过是选举期间的虚张声势？
答：我们应当保持对美国的压力，从而令它留下来。但是与此同时我们应当看到现实：美国人迟早会撤出亚洲——即便希拉里·克林顿当选的话它也准备这么做。特朗普只是加快了这个初现端倪的趋势。美国不愿再负担保护韩国、日本或者是菲律宾等国的成本。但是这令它更容易受到攻击：中国在南中国海拥有军事基地，如今通过太平洋的核潜艇可以直接对美国领土发起攻击。如果北京主导了该地区，美国就受到桎梏。
问：日本首相安倍晋三和特朗普谈论过这个问题吗？
答：安倍采取了明智的做法：他将关于TPP未来以及安全合作的所有细节都从议事日程上删除。他只是说，与日本合作将令美国“更重要”。这很合特朗普的意，他喜欢安倍。特朗普厌恶多边主义，但喜欢双边协议。他将很高兴在亚洲有一个盟友。
问：对特朗普来说，日本拥有核弹也是没问题的。日本的“和平主义”国防政策就此而告终了吗？
答：中国最大的担心是日本军事化。这将不会发生，就算日本强硬派这么要求。我们也不谋求发展任何核武计划。这样的举措将进一步破坏该地区的稳定。尽管如此，美国撤退会加强日本的地区影响力。这个国家已经学会和平地解决危机。感觉自己受到威胁的邻国将与我们接近。
问：朝鲜是另外一个不稳定因素。“特朗普主义”会产生哪些影响呢？
答：朝鲜的外交政策是受内部而非外部因素推动的。然而朝鲜最近提出了新的核谈条件。我参加了在北京举行的与朝鲜代表团的会面。平壤的谈判条件是美国和中国进行核裁军。这意味着：放弃核武器是不可能的，眼下朝鲜希望作为核国家得到承认。
问：这特朗普会接受吗？
答：它是可能的。特朗普明确表示他拒绝目前这种国际秩序——也包括核不扩散体系。特朗普可能会与朝鲜达成协议。但这可能会促使韩国进行核扩军等等。我目前认为，这种对国际法的背弃是新一任总统任期最大的风险之一，特别是对欧洲和日本这样的多边主义者来说。
来源：参考消息
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文章关键词： 亚太地区 日本 中国 美国
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