Former Deputy Director of China's Taiwan Affairs Office: the peaceful reunification of Taiwan and little chance of

Today is a popular exception 2017 annual meeting of the global times, topics covered China and Japan-South Korea relations, the South China Sea issue and other fields. However, this is also one of the most powerful topic is about "how long Taiwan independence can madness" issue.

Because, in the discussion, including the military people and the Taiwan Affairs Office of a former senior government official, more guests with respect, our mainland China peaceful reunification of Taiwan has become increasingly less likely, even in front of Trump's clamor has been lost, around the year 2020 there will be a war in the Taiwan Strait!

Next, let small series to bring guests the wonderful speech!

First of all, "former Deputy Commander of the Nanjing military region, Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang" statement:

Hongguang Wang

"First of all, I have a basic judgment of the current situation across the Taiwan Strait, Trump was not elected has been on both sides of the conflict continues to accumulate, the crisis continues to deepen, have reached a near breaking point. Trump took office, recent words and actions mean the outbreak near the point of a match. My judgment is that by 2020 is certain that military conflict in 2020, before and after the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait is likely to seize Taiwan.

First, the "Taiwan independence" is the mainstream public opinion on the island now, and more and more on the island alone, cannot be returned. This example gets along well Needless to say, ten years ago is 55% does not recognize Chinese, now ten years after 2016 is 75% do not recognize themselves as Chinese, next generation, now accepted fifty or sixty years after the Chinese had not, island no one admits that he is Chinese, and this is the 1th.

Second, Tsai is rational "Taiwan independence", he's not speculators like Chen Shui-bian, she recently said she wanted to maintain the status quo, she offered to make a phone call to Trump, she used her actions broke the most basic red line of maintaining the status quo. In addition, she was appointed for "Taiwan independence" judges, these judges through judicial profile Taiwan into an independent State. Today is the most important of which is not to allow Tsai to answer answer answer no, the answer she had handed in is continuing to "Taiwan independence".

Third, some people and Japanese have connections within the Islands together, "Taiwan independence" what is next? Is in Okinawa, I cite a specific example. 1945 Taiwan retrocession, the Japanese left behind 300,000 Japanese to Taiwan after Taiwan, through Japan during the 50 years of Japanese when Taiwan was 6 million, 8% is 480,000, plus 300,000 people, nearly 800,000 people, after three generations of 75 years, 23 million people now has more than 6 million people are descendants of these people. His concept is not only "Taiwan independence", from his blood relationship and Japan's relationship is not generalized. We will force Taiwan, it's going to be a fight that we most strongly on "Taiwan independence" forces.

Fourth, the KMT has been picked up, mud help not on the wall, is constantly being marginalized. Ma Ying-jeou, who does not want the reunification of the country, the KMT is split in history habit. Early Kuomintang Sun Yat-Sen and Huang Xing there is a contradiction, then early Chiang Kai-shek and Wang Jingwei contradictory, now OK, these people which is the legislative caucus of the Kuomintang intimate comrades? The KMT did not play, and KMT young said we want to change the party, removed Chinese-made, you call this reform? Body of the party, this is the island. City now has 700 million Internet users, of which 93%, global times, when poll, is to use force to liberate Taiwan. Singapore's Lianhe zaobao, which is a white collar workers often look at newspapers, 83% agreed to the use of force or the threat of force unification Taiwan. Earlier this year, the 93% of Chinese youth against "Taiwan independence", city, 1.3 billion people are against "Taiwan independence", and General Secretary in two recent statements about 1.3 billion people, and you the island's 23 million people, then get rid of pro-unification, or more than 10 million, this confrontation is not compatible, will not give way to each other.

Fifth, Taiwan's energy has been unable to keep our armed forces unification, County have been Taiwan is not to change the initiative, this initiative, global Times editorial yesterday was good, to turn it into rebuilding Taiwan's right to reshape, and this is the balance of power. In several ways, have now reached a crucial time. I still have a four-point strategy. ”

How about taking combative, right?! However, when people thought the next appearance of the country's former Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office Wang Zaixi will ease following fierce when Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang, the former army General said he "basically agrees with," Wang Hongguang's comments, saying that "the possibility of peaceful unification is lost!"

King in Greek

The following is his statement:

“

Basically, I agree with the General Wang Hongguang said ... ... Why I said basically agree with it? In my opinion, just slightly a little different, I think the possibility of peaceful unification is gradually lost, because we have sworn of the anti-secession law is very clear, and in three cases we will act according to law, one of the most important article is the possibility of peaceful reunification has been lost. So I think it should say in the close slowly and gradually lost.

The Trump and Tsai 10 minute dialogue, Taiwan issue has aroused unprecedented attention, let Taiwan more exposed the nature of the problem. I think now of Taiwan authorities and two Jiang times, even Lee Teng-hui of times, are has up changes has, now of Taiwan authorities from a species meaning Shang told, it has lost has independent sex, slowly of has became United States, and Japan right anti-China forces of agent, United States is wants to playing Taiwan brand to curb China of peace rise, "independence" split forces wants to using United States, and Japan to seeks independent. They are used to each other. I remember after Donald Trump made the remarks, a lot of people say Taiwan has become the United States of a piece, that has access to a "Taiwan independence" scholars, he said on television, he said we were using that we still have value. Cheeky, of the current Taiwan situation, analysis of why I broadly agree with Mr Wang Hongguang, details are a little bit different. In my opinion, has four points.

1th, the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces in Taiwan have been bigger, now Taiwan island has no power to stop "Taiwan independence", so in that sense, in Taiwan "Taiwan independence" separatist could have taken to the road of no return. It is clear that turned out to contain "Taiwan independence" is mainly the KMT, KMT has had it now, he had no ability to contain. In addition, the decentralized power, can not be together. Is the younger generation now be misled by the Democratic Progressive Party, along with some small parties have to move closer to the DPP, so this trend is really bad.

2nd, I think legal "Taiwan independence" will be split in the future style. Because Chen Shui-bian had wanted to pass a referendum law "Taiwan independence", he was to succeed, because we are firmly opposed to the KMT a majority in the Legislative Yuan, and United States President Bush also hoped that stability in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, Chen Shui-bian did not succeed. But now situation different has, DPP in legislation hospital has control has most, Qian soon Tsai Ing-wen appointed has seven a justice, which has several is very obviously of has "independence" tendencies of judge, such I on is worried, future he not only through repair Gazette, and may through Shi Xian "independence", because such a "independence" style compared security, not by which leaders announced, he also not bear responsibility, he on through legislation institutions or other of way, put repair Gazette Shi Xian yihou put "independence" terms put in. "Taiwan independence" main style I think is to be legal in the future "Taiwan independence", which is his first choice.

3rd, the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan power, both Tsai and other leaders, who seeks "Taiwan independence" tendency will not change. He said maintaining the status quo, many of us understand in order to maintain its present situation of peaceful development of cross-strait relations, is not, it is necessary to maintain the current of "Taiwan independence" secessionist status quo. Tsai now policies I outline into 16 words, alienated city, relying on the United States and Japan, solid foundation, gradually plan an independent.

4th, the "Taiwan independence" how long can still rampant, I think we can now contain "Taiwan independence" only trends in mainland China. So to ask the "Taiwan independence" how long can still rampant, I think the key to the Mainland's determination.

It appears from the above two comments, if Donald Trump in Taiwan that challenges our bottom line on our core issues, Taiwan independence elements continued in Taiwan jumped a foot up, then cross-strait unification will really not far away.

However, although two guests for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan's chances looked down upon, but they are not "military" people. Among them, Wang Hongguang words capture will be back out of the "war does break out in the Taiwan Strait," the essence of who decides:

"The Democratic Progressive Party came to power on the surface situation gone bad, but I think the bad thing sometimes can be turned into a good thing, the DPP more perverse, to promote" Taiwan independence ", which may bring opportunities, it is possible to accelerate the process of the reunification of the motherland ... ... We will be with the greatest sincerity and efforts to strive for peaceful reunification, it will not change, but could last peaceful reunification does not depend on us, it depends on Taiwan island. ”

(Editors: xiaowugang UN845)
2016-12-18 15:07:04
Global times

中国国台办前副主任：和平统一台湾的可能性越来越小

　　今天举行的《环球时报》2017年年会可谓火爆异常，话题涵盖了中国和日本韩关系、南海问题等多个领域。不过，这其中最给力的话题还是关于“台独还能猖狂多久”的议题。

　　因为，在讨论中，包括军界人士和国台办前高官在内的多位嘉宾直言，我们中国大陆和平统一台湾的可能性已经越来越小，甚至在特朗普的叫嚣面前已经丧失，2020年前后台海必有一战！

　　接下来，就让小编给大家带来嘉宾们的精彩发言吧！

　　首先，是【原南京军区副司令、中将王洪光先生】的发言：

王洪光

　　“我首先对台海当前的局势有一个基本的判断，特朗普还没有当选的时候已经是两岸的冲突在不断的积累，危机在不断的加深，已经到了一个临近的爆发点。特朗普上台以后，最近的言行就等于给这个爆发的临近点点了一根火柴。我的判断是，2020年前军事冲突是肯定的，2020年前后要爆发台海战争，很可能一举夺取台湾。

　　第一个，“台独”现在是岛内的主流民意，而且岛内越来越独，不可返回。这个例子不用讲合得来，十年前是55%不承认是中国人，现在十年之后，2016年是75%不承认自己是中国人，再过一代，现在承认中国人的五六十岁以上的中国人没有了以后，全岛没有谁再承认自己是中国人，这是第一点。

　　第二个，蔡英文是理性“台独”，他不是像陈水扁这样的投机分子，最近她说她要维持现状，她主动给特朗普打一个电话，她用自己的实际行动突破了维持现状最基本的红线。另外，她任命了几个“台独”大法官，这几个大法官可以通过司法很低调的把台湾变成一个独立国。当下最主要的是不要让蔡英文再答什么没有答完的答卷，这个答卷她已经交卷了，就是持续的“台独”。

　　第三个，岛内的一些人和日本人已经完全勾连在一起，“台独”下一步是什么呢？是琉球化，我举一个具体的例子。1945年台湾光复的时候，日本人留下了30万日本人转为台籍，经过台湾、经过日本五十年的日居时期，当时台湾是600万人，8%是48万人，加上30万人，将近80万人，经过三代七十五年，现在2300万人里面有600万人以上是这些人的后代。他不仅从理念上是“台独”，他从血缘关系上和日本的关系都不是一般化的。我们以后如果武力解放台湾，这将是一次抵抗我们最坚决的“台独”力量。

　　第四个，国民党已经拾不起来了，烂泥扶不上墙，正在不断的被边缘化。马英九这些人根本就不想国家的统一，国民党在历史上是分裂习惯的。国民党早期孙中山和黄兴有一段矛盾，再早期蒋介石和汪精卫有矛盾，现在行了，国民党里面这些人哪一个是洪秀柱贴心的战友？国民党没有戏了，而且国民党年轻一代说我们要改党，把中国制拿掉了，这叫改革吗？亡党之身，这是岛内。大陆，现在有7亿网民，其中93%，环球时报进行民调的时候，是要用武力解放台湾。新加坡的联合早报，这是个白领经常看的报纸，83%同意以武力或以武力相威胁统一台湾。今年年初，93%的中国青年坚持反对“台独”，大陆13亿民意是反对“台独”的，习总书记最近有两次讲话都讲到13亿民意，和你岛内的2300万民意，再去掉统派，也就是一千多万，这个对抗是不可调和的，互相都不会让道。

　　第五个，台湾的精力已经不能坚持我们对他的武力统一，中国大陆已经对台湾有了不可改变的主动权，这个主导权，昨天环球时报的社评很好，要把它变成重塑台湾的重塑权，这是力量的对比。从几个方面来看，现在已经到了关键的时候。我后面还有四点方略。”

　　怎么样，火药味十足吧？！不过，当人们以为接下来出场的国台办前副主任王在希会缓和以下王洪光中将的激烈气氛时，这位曾经的解放军少将却表示他“基本认同”王洪光的言论，认为“和平统一的可能性正在丧失”！

王在希

　　以下就是他的发言：

　　“

　　基本上我同意王洪光将军讲的……为什么我说基本赞成呢？我的看法只是稍稍有一点点不一样，我认为和平统一的可能性正在逐步丧失，因为我们的反分裂国家法非常明确的已经宣誓了，在三种情况下我们将依法对台采取行动，其中最重要的第三条就是和平统一的可能性已经丧失。所以我认为现在应该说在慢慢的逐步的接近丧失。

　　这次特朗普和蔡英文10分钟对话，台湾问题已经引起大家空前的关注，也让台湾问题的本质更加暴露出来了。我认为现在的台湾当局和两蒋时代，甚至李登辉的时代，都已经起变化了，现在的台湾当局从某种意义上讲，它已经失去了自主性，慢慢的已经成为美国、日本右翼反华势力的代理人，美国是想打台湾牌来遏制中国的和平崛起，“台独”分裂势力想利用美国、日本来谋求独立。他们是互相利用。我记得在特朗普发表这个言论之后，很多人讲台湾已经成为美国的一颗棋子，竟然有一个“台独”的学者，他在电视上讲，他说我们被利用说明我们还有价值。简直厚颜无耻，我对当前台湾的时局，为什么我大体上同意刚才王洪光的分析呢，细节上还是有点差异。我的看法有四点。

　　第一点，“台独”分裂势力在台湾已经做大，现在台湾岛已经没有其他的力量能够遏制住“台独”，所以从这个意义上讲，在台湾“台独”分裂可能已经走上不归路。很清楚，原来遏制“台独”主要是国民党，现在国民党已经不行了，他已经没有遏制的能力了。另外，力量分散，形不成合力。另外是年轻一代现在被民进党误导，再加上有些小党纷纷向民进党靠拢，所以这个趋势确实是不好的。

　　第二点，我认为法理“台独”将是将来搞分裂的样式。因为陈水扁的时候就曾经想通过搞公投来法理“台独”，当时他很难成功，因为我们坚决反对，国民党在立法院有多数，而且美国布什当时也希望台海稳定。所以陈水扁这个没有成功。但现在情况不同了，民进党在立法院已经控制了多数，前不久蔡英文任命了七个大法官，其中有几个是非常明显的具有“台独”倾向的法官，这样我就很担心，将来他不仅通过修宪，而且可能通过施宪“台独”，因为这样一种“台独”样式比较安全，不是由哪个领导人宣布，他也不承担责任，他就通过立法机构或者其他的方式，把修宪施宪以后把“台独”条款放进去。所以“台独”将来主要的样式我认为是法理“台独”，这是他的首选。

　　第三点，民进党在台湾执政，不管是蔡英文还是别的领导人，他们谋求“台独”的趋势不会改变。他现在讲的维持现状，我们很多人都把它理解为维持两岸关系和平发展现状，不是的，它是要维持目前“台独”分裂现状。蔡英文现在的政策我概括成16个字，疏离大陆，依靠美日，稳固基础，徐图独立。

　　第四点，“台独”还能猖狂多久，我认为现在能够遏制“台独”趋势的唯一力量是中国大陆。所以要问“台独”还能猖狂多久，我认为关键就看大陆的决心。

　　从上面这两位嘉宾的言论看来，如果特朗普在台湾这个我们的核心问题上挑战我们的底线，台独分子继续在台湾跳着脚搞事，那么两岸的统一就真的不会遥远了。

　　不过，虽然两位嘉宾对于和平统一台湾的几率看低，但他们却并不是“穷兵黩武”之人。其中，王洪光中将后面的一句话就道出了“台海是否爆发战争”由谁决定的本质：

　　“民进党上台执政表面上看形势变坏了，但是我认为坏事有时候可以变好事，民进党越是倒行逆施，推动“台独”，这样就有可能带来机会，就有可能加速祖国统一的进程……我们还会以最大的诚意和努力去争取实现和平统一，这一点不会改变，但是最后能不能和平统一不取决于我们，还要看台湾岛内。”

(责任编辑：肖武岗 UN845)
2016-12-18 15:07:04
环球时报