China 10 build 60 nuclear power plants in the future safety of the | | _ news


> Data chart: Western China's first nuclear power plant unit 1th of grid-connected power generation. New with Xinhua, Zhong Xin photo

Facing nuclear power development

　　Editor's note was reported in the media recently, head of the State nuclear power technology Corporation said in an interview over the next 10 years, China will build 60 nuclear power units. This triggered another wave of "nucleus", "nuclear" "anti-nuclear" wave of public opinion: the rumor a long time of "mass construction of nuclear power" has finally landed, so many nuclear power generating units, is it safe? Economy under the new normal, weak growth in power consumption of the whole society, which will give rise to new excess capacity? For a while. These are all issues of concern to the public. This newspaper today published series of reports on China's nuclear power development in the face of and clear up doubts for the reader.

"The next 10 years, China will build at least 60 nuclear power plants", is undoubtedly the recent biggest news in the field of nuclear power, causing netizens comment. Public concern of mass construction of nuclear power was finally settled, it means what?

　　10 60, is not too aggressive?

"10 build 60 nuclear power units", are eye-catching in the communication, in fact is nothing new – promulgated by the State Council, China's energy development strategy plan of action (2014-2020), submitted by 2020, nuclear power will reach 58 million-kilowatt in transit, building up 30 million-kilowatt.

Expert Committee member Lin Chengge explanation of State nuclear power technology company, to complete national plan, as currently in operation, 28 26.148 million kW in installed capacity, building 26, installed capacity of 29.12 million-kilowatt calculations, to "Thirteen-Five" at the end, can be 58 million-kilowatt, but less 30 million-kilowatt building size, so "Thirteen-Five" domestic 28-30 units built. At the same speed, and by 2025, there are 30 or so necessary to build.

10 60, is not too aggressive? Take a look at China's energy Green and low-carbon development goal of this background is clear: by 2020, non-fossil energy accounted for a proportion of total energy consumption reached 15% per unit GDP carbon emissions than 2005 40%-45%; by 2030, respectively, around and 20%-65% and peak around 2030 carbon emissions and strive to peak as early as possible. "Honouring our solemn commitment to the international community, various kinds of green, low-carbon energy that development must be broken down by class". 30 million-kilowatt Wan 58 million-kilowatt under construction nuclear power by 2020, "is a minimum."

　　Fukushima can not change the conclusions of the safe, clean nuclear energy

Japan Fukushima's influence on society is huge, even as "unacceptable".

Emphasize the basic points at the same time, the radiation protection experts, the nuclear group of academician Pan Ziqiang, Institute of nuclear and new energy technology Tsinghua University Professor he jiankun, Zhou Ruming researcher in Suzhou, China Guangdong Nuclear thermal hospital, after the full depth of the Fukushima pointed out that Fukushima will not change, "nuclear power is a safe, environment-friendly energy" conclusion.

Pan Ziqiang study shows that, in terms of environmental impacts, comparison of different greenhouse gas emission factors of the energy chain, lignite, coal, oil, solar, hydro, biomass, wind energy, nuclear energy, nuclear energy ranked lowest in turn; the impact of health, nuclear radiation exposure is also much lower than coal.

In fact, after Fukushima, the basic pattern of developing nuclear power in the world has not changed, with Lin Chengge's words, "the development or development, the discarded or abandoned." Germany, and Italy reiterated the Denuclearisation, has nothing to do with Fukushima itself; and before the Fukushima, mass construction of nuclear power in China, in the planning, supervision, technologies, equipment manufacturing has been "everything", Fukushima suddenly interrupt this process, China's nuclear power can be said to Fukushima "real victims".

At present, nuclear power plant under construction in the world total of 65, China 26, Russia 9 units, India 6, United States 5, Korea 4. At the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear countries have positive developments after United Kingdom, and South Africa, and Poland, and Turkey, and Finland, and Romania and the Czech Republic, U.A.E., and Viet Nam, and Argentina and Pakistan, construction of the nuclear power plant is a third generation advanced units.

　　Facing nuclear energy to the public, why particularly vulnerable?

Probability of nuclear accidents, losses that are far smaller than car accidents, mine disasters, and other accidents, why is particularly vulnerable to public psychological face of nuclear energy? The answer to this question, many years ago, the Chinese Academy of Engineering's 139th in Tianjin China engineering science and technology forum "of China's nuclear power development" on, industry experts, including 15 academicians of the antibody is impressive.

--Nuclear energy "original sin". The first use of nuclear energy, unfortunately in the war situation. Before the end of World War II Hiroshima, Nagasaki brought about by the two mushroom over the apocalyptic death and are all "nuclear fear" roots. The nuclear energy could reasonably bear the "original sin", "you can credibly talk over the peaceful use of nuclear energy, the prospect of human-controlled nuclear energy, but are hard to erase that painful original mark".

--Delay and diffusion effects of a nuclear accident. Despite the accident death toll is far less than mine, a car accident, but like the Chernobyl nuclear accident led directly to a midsize city "empty city" disaster and its consequences have yet to dispose of clean, "this domino effect on people's psychology is difficult to use numbers to describe."

--The mystery of nuclear energy. The biggest difference between nuclear power plant is different from conventional power stations, in the "conventional island" front end is called "NI" of the reactor, the conventional island like an ordinary plant, everyone will know and island given the characteristics of nuclear power, are all under strict containment of the reactor, and outsiders are not allowed to it. Which makes nuclear power covered with a layer of mystery, while "something mysterious is prone to fear is understandable."

　　Nuclear safety can be known, is the public's "psychological boost"

Beginning of a nuclear power plant project in China, in selecting a link, anti-nuclear activists to communicate to fellow of the question: "you tell me a Word, nuclear security is not secure? "As responsible of industry experts, certainly cannot" a sentence words "answered, but rigorous to with a heap" how many a ppm "of accident probability to expressed its security index, results certainly is" you so big experts are can't said is security of, that on must is not security of "--is obviously to, in here, this" security "non-he" security ".

Lin Chengge and his colleague Hao Dongqin way to look at it: absolute security does not exist, 100%, "the bus safe? "Require absolute security," fantasy a completely risk-free source of energy "," advocate a no cost benefit ", which is not realistic. So, on one hand to see reason, return of common sense: the so-called security, it is often said that the "big enough to interest + affordable, manageable risk", while the industry had to do was "minimize risk" on the other, pay attention to skills, accessible, seamless communication is also necessary, and sometimes even decisive.

Public sentiment, Lin Chengge and Hao Dongqin always think: the nuclear energy industry has made very beautiful popular science pamphlet, there is a time for irregular plant "public day" activities, but "coverage is not widespread", propaganda, communicate "still not deep and mysterious". The key is, to be accustomed to the industry "unreasonable" regulation, "whatever it takes" security design, pervasive culture of nuclear safety, "unconditional compliance" security procedures, "strictly to strict and detailed to the extreme" safety and quality controls, and so on, and made known to the public. Only its own security, even if it is the industrial area of the highest level of security is not enough; a known nuclear safety is only in the public, "reassured".

　　"Civil nuclear" contrary to facts, exaggeration

, Including the domestic nuclear power a new trend, there will always be some different voices, affecting the public, and even decision-making. Previously, these are summarized as "civil nuclear."

"' Civil nuclear ', with large data analysis results and facts." Hao Dongqin list 7 domestic nuclear provinces electricity generation accounted for respectively: Zhejiang 16.7%, Guangdong, 15.6%, 15.4%, Fujian, Liaoning, 8.9%, 3.7%, Jiangsu, Shandong and Guangxi of the new operation. The fact is, residents, local governments do not have nuclear power plants, "nuclear" "anti-nuclear" but as time went on, the local population's attitude towards nuclear power, a trend of more and more at ease, Pro. In one of the earliest of qinshan nuclear power station, has been operating for 25 years, for example, where sea salt has become known as "the nuclear resonance paradise". Guided by the positive effects that have not yet been construction site, generally show "your are looking forward to" positive attitude, most hope to build inland nuclear power plant the first batch of the Hunan taohuajiang, Xianning, Hubei and Jiangxi pengze typical.

Analysis on Lin Chengge and Hao Dongqin, "anti-nuclear" tendency is not limited to China, in the world, "nuclear", "nuclear" and "nuclear" confrontation for a long time, only a few times in the history of nuclear accidents is undoubtedly pushed up "anti-nuclear" sound but "anti-nuclear" in the opinion of resonance to levels that never seem to obviously like Fukushima. But at home and abroad, its actual effects are quite different.

Lin Chengge introduced in the United States, "anti-nuclear" sound in Fukushima was also high, but because the relevant regulatory system is sound, to United States nuclear regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory system with the core of a powerful, established Government nuclear policy has not changed substantially. At home, the relevant regulations the same sound, regulatory standards and regulatory system is also the first with international standards, and nuclear power planning numerous industry experts repeatedly released after evaluation and justification, but actually because of public opinion "lockout". He presented the country's nuclear power policy to maintain relative stability – "is the Chinese forces, thousands of industry experts both inside and outside for more than 10 years repeated scientific proof of the conclusion believable, or minority use contrary to facts, exaggerated data to kidnap the spectrum of public opinion? ”

(,, Beijing January 3-reporter Qu Jian)

>: Tang Liu Debin SN222

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中国未来10年建60台核电机组|核电|安全_新闻资讯

>资料图：中国西部首座核电站1号机组并网发电。 中新社记者 钟欣 摄

　直面核电发展

　　编者按 有媒体日前报道，国家核电技术公司负责人接受采访称，未来10年中国将建60台核电机组。这引发了又一波“疑核”“恐核”“反核”的舆论风潮：传闻日久的“核电批量化建设”终于落地，建这么多核电机组，安全吗？经济新常态下，全社会用电量增长乏力，这会否造成新的产能过剩？等等。凡此种种，都是公众热切关注的议题。本报从今天起刊登直面中国核电发展的系列报道，为读者释疑解惑。

　　“中国未来10年将至少建设60台核电机组”，无疑是核电领域近来最大的新闻，引起网民热议。公众关注的核电批量化建设终于尘埃落定，究竟意味着什么？

　　10年60台，算不算冒进？

　　“10年建60台核电机组”，在传播层面十分吸引眼球，事实上却不是什么新鲜事——中国国务院发布的《能源发展战略行动计划（2014—2020年）》早就提出：到2020年，在运核电规模将达到5800万千瓦，在建规模达3000万千瓦。

　　国家核电技术公司专家委员会委员林诚格解释，要完成国家规划，按目前在运28台、装机容量2614.8万千瓦，在建26台、装机容量2912万千瓦计算，到“十三五”末，可以达到5800万千瓦，但少了3000万千瓦在建规模；所以“十三五”内需再建28—30台机组。按同样速度，到2025年，还有30台左右需建。

　　10年60台，算不算冒进？看一看中国能源绿色低碳发展目标这一大背景就清楚了：到2020年，非化石能源占一次能源消费总量比重达到15%，单位GDP碳排放量比2005年下降40%—45%；到2030年，更分别达到20%左右和60%—65%，且2030年前后碳排放达到峰值，并力争尽早达峰。“要兑现我们对国际社会作出的庄严承诺，各门类绿色低碳能源就必须按类分解这一发展目标”。核电到2020年在运5800万千瓦、在建3000万千瓦，“是一个最起码的量”。

　　福岛事故改变不了核能安全、清洁的结论

　　日本福岛核事故对社会公众的影响是巨大的，甚至是“不可接受的”。

　　在强调这一基本点的同时，辐射防护专家、中核集团潘自强院士，清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院何建坤教授，中广核苏州热工院周如明研究员等，对福岛事故作全方位深度解析之后指出，福岛事故改变不了“核能是安全、环境友好能源”的结论。

　　潘自强的研究表明，在环境影响方面，不同能源链的温室气体排放系数比较，褐煤、煤、石油、太阳能、水力、生物质、风能、核能中，核能依次排在最低；对人员健康的影响方面，核能的辐射照射也远远低于煤。

　　事实上，福岛事故之后，世界各国发展核电的基本格局并未改变，用林诚格的话讲，“该发展的还发展，该弃用的还弃用”。德国、意大利重申弃核，跟福岛事故本身无关；而福岛之前，中国核电批量化建设，在规划、监管、技术、装备制造等方面已经“万事俱备”，福岛事故一下子中断了这一进程，中国核电可以说是福岛事故“最实质性的受害者”。

　　目前，世界在建核电机组总共65台，其中中国26台、俄罗斯9台、印度6台、美国5台、韩国4台。而在福岛之后积极发展核电的国家还有英国、南非、波兰、土耳其、芬兰、罗马尼亚、捷克、阿联酋、越南、阿根廷和巴基斯坦等，建设的核电站均为第三代先进机组。

　　公众面对核能，为何心理格外脆弱？

　　核事故概率、损失远远小于车祸、矿难等其他事故，为何公众心理面对核能时格外脆弱？对这一问题的回答，多年前中国工程院在天津举办的第139场中国工程科技论坛“中国核能的科学发展”上，包括15位院士在内的业界专家的归纳令人印象深刻。

　　——核能“原罪”。人类首次利用核能，很不幸地是在战争场合。二战结束前广岛、长崎上空的那两朵蘑菇云所带来世界末日般的巨大伤亡，是所有“核恐惧”的根源。这使核能理所当然地背负了“原罪”，“你可以令人信服地纵谈和平利用核能、人类控制核能的美好前景，但却很难抹平那样惨痛的原始印记”。

　　——核事故的滞后和扩散效应。尽管核事故死亡人数远少于矿难、车祸，但像切尔诺贝利那样的核事故直接导致了一座中型城市“空城”的灾难，其后果至今尚未处置干净，“这对人们心理的连锁冲击是难以用具体数字形容的”。

　　——核能的神秘感。核电站区别于常规电站的最大不同，是在“常规岛”前端被称为“核岛”的反应堆，常规岛跟普通电厂一样，所有人一看便知；而核岛因核能的特殊性，反应堆被全部置于严密的安全壳内，外人不得其详。这就使核电蒙上一层神秘面纱，而“神秘的东西容易引发恐惧是人之常情”。

　　可被知的核安全，是公众的“定心丸”

　　国内某核电站立项之初，在选址环节，有反核人士向前来沟通的院士质询：“你就一句话告诉我，核电站到底安全不安全？”作为负责任的业内专家，当然不能“一句话”回答，而是严谨地用一堆“多少个ppm”的事故概率来表述其安全指标，结果当然是“你这么大专家都不敢说是安全的，那就一定是不安全的”——很明显地，在这里，此“安全”非彼“安全”。

　　林诚格和他的同事郝东秦这样看待此事：绝对的、100%的安全是不存在的，“坐公交车安全吗？”要求绝对意义上的安全，等于“幻想一种完全无风险的能源”，“主张一种毫无代价的收益”，这是不现实的。所以，一方面要回归理性，回归常识：所谓安全，其实就是人们常说的“足够大的利益+可以承受的、可控的风险”，而业界要做的就是“尽可能降低风险”；另一方面，讲究技巧、通俗易懂、无缝对接的沟通也十分必要，有时甚至是决定性的。

　　面对公众的心理关口，林诚格和郝东秦也时时反省：业界虽然有编得很漂亮的核能科普小册子，有定时不定时的核电站“公众开放日”活动等，但“覆盖面还是不广”，宣讲、沟通“还是不深、不透”。最关键的是，要把业界习以为常的“蛮不讲理”的监管，“不惜代价”的安全设计，无孔不入的核安全文化，“无条件顺从”的安全程序，“严格到苛刻、细化到极致”的安全质量管控等等一切，让公众知晓。仅仅自身做到安全、哪怕是工业领域最高级别的安全是不够的；一个可被知的核安全，才是公众的“定心丸”。

　　“民间反核”违背事实、夸大数据

　　包括此次在内，国内核电领域一有新动向，总会引来一些不同声音，影响公众、甚至决策。以往，这些都被概括为“民间反核”。

　　“‘民间反核’，与大数据分析结果和事实不符”。郝东秦列举国内有核的7个省份，发电量占比分别为：浙江16.7%，广东15.6%，福建15.4%，辽宁8.9%，江苏3.7%，山东和广西新投运。事实是，核电站所在地居民、地方政府没有“恐核”“反核”的；而且，随着时间推移，当地民众对核电的态度，呈越来越放心、亲和的趋势。以国内最早的核电站、已运营25年的秦山为例，所在地海盐已成为有名的“核谐福地”。受此正面效应引导，那些尚未建设的厂址地，普遍都表现出“就盼着你们来”的积极姿态，以最有希望首批获建内陆核电站的湖南桃花江、湖北咸宁、江西彭泽最为典型。

　　郝东秦和林诚格分析，“反核”倾向不限于中国，世界范围内，“恐核”“反核”跟“挺核”的对立由来已久，历史上仅有的几次核事故无疑推高了“反核”的声音；只不过，“反核”在舆论层面所获的共鸣似乎从未像福岛之后这样明显。但在中外，其实际效果却大相径庭。

　　林诚格介绍，在美国，“反核”的声音也在福岛之后一度高涨，但由于相关法规体系健全，以美国核管会（NRC）为核心的监管制度有力，政府既定核能政策并没有实质性改变。而在国内，相关法规体系同样健全，监管标准和监管制度亦属最早跟国际接轨，核电规划经无数业内外专家学者反复评估论证后正式发布，却因为舆情而实际“停摆”。他由此提出国家核电政策如何保持相对稳定性的问题——“是举中国之力、上千名业内外专家经十几年反复科学论证的结论可信，还是少数人用违背事实、夸大数据来绑架舆论的说法靠谱？”

　　（科技日报北京1月3日电 记者 瞿 剑）

>责任编辑：刘德宾 SN222

文章关键词：
核电 安全

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