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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/12 9:28:16 People’s daily： haze predict earthquakes will occur without evidence
Recently, a "serious haze predict drought and frequent earthquakes will occur" is spread across the network, causing all kinds of doubts. The view that China's recent large scale, long term causes of haze and asthenosphere of the Earth's activity, after the widespread haze and other disasters such as earthquakes, droughts could ensue. This view of science? Causes of haze and geologically related? Reporters interviewed the perspectives of people and other relevant experts.
Widespread fog and haze associated with geological activity?
"Response" is only speculation; there are no studies show that Earth's asthenosphere is particularly active in the near future, water vapour is unlikely to suddenly increase and lead to haze
Reporters read found this statement originated from Jiang Dongmei "tianda Institute" website of the haze alert after severe drought earthquake article. On December 9, the reporter contacted the Hong Kong Monetary Authority Professor Jiang Dongmei, Vice President of the school himself. In her view, the pollution of the environment is exacerbating the external manifestations of haze, but it is by no means cause haze.
Jiang Dongmei Wang Jian, a researcher at the Institute of geophysics, China Seismological Bureau cited asthenosphere of activity theory is that the asthenosphere of the Earth could explain the large area of activities, long term causes of haze. It is understood that Wang published in April 2012, the Interior of the Earth lodge to the deeper motivations and effects of climate change, flowing asthenosphere of the Earth promoted the movement of the plates and cause hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, droughts occur frequently. (As shown)
Reporters access to Wang's article found, the article does not mention flowing asthenosphere of the Earth causes the haze.
Jiang Dongmei believes that based on Wang's theory, in the asthenosphere active cases, Lithospheric thinning asthenosphere of the Earth causes the release of large amounts of water vapor and water vapor accumulates in the near-surface, combined with large amounts of pollutants produced haze. But fog and haze, earthquakes, droughts and other disastrous phenomena may also ensue, relevant departments should be prepared in advance.
To this remark, a longtime expert on earthquakes told reporters that current research has not found bound in haze and the occurrence of earthquakes or prominent links. He said that haze phenomenon and earthquakes associated with the more far-fetched.
Zhang Dong-Ning, Deputy Director of the Institute of geophysics, China Seismological Bureau believes that active period commonly referred to as the Earth's Interior, often characterized by frequent volcanic earthquakes. From the perspective of monitoring of solid Geophysics, volcano over the past decade than in the period before the earthquake has not increased. "The activity inside the Earth entered a period of active identification of" lack of evidence, from soft flowing over more than 100 km of the surface layer, particularly active at present there have been no studies to prove its recent.
Zhang Dong-Ning said that the asthenosphere is also known as the asthenosphere, and temperatures under 800 ° c to 1500 ° c range, generally considered to be major source of magma. "Floats" on top of it is a layer of low temperature, the firmness of the lithosphere. Current seismological observation and geothermal measurement are displayed, the heat release rate of the asthenosphere is a very slow and gradual process and impact on the ground is stable, water vapor is unlikely to suddenly increase. Thus, widespread fog and haze are unlikely to be caused by this factor.
Jiang Dongmei admits that this theory is still a hypothesis, lacking sufficient practice and factual basis. "Geography, such as crustal movement studies included in disastrous phenomena such as fog and haze in order to examine more fully issues. "Jiang Dongmei said.
What are the recent haze formation in the South?
"In response to" haze simply cannot be expressed in a formula; emission and static stability is the main reason causing this haze weather; haze to strengthen interdisciplinary research
Jiang Dongmei in the article gives the formula of haze: haze = (above 80% humidity + pollutants) x temperature inversion. In her view, the massive haze many times earlier this year on the Mainland, could not simply caused by a pollutant spreading.
Shanghai Meteorological Bureau experts, haze not only with the atmospheric water vapour, contaminants concentrations and temperature inversion associated with atmospheric diffusion conditions (horizontal and vertical proliferation of proliferation), pollutant transport conditions and regional factors such as geography, fog and haze weather simply cannot be expressed in a formula.
College of environmental sciences and engineering at Nankai University professor Feng Yin plant haze generated by this formula does not agree. "Fog and haze are two concepts, the mist is a natural phenomenon, in case of sufficient moisture and temperature, atmospheric stability, moisture in the air will condense into tiny water droplets suspended in the air, known as fog. Haze is caused by human activity in the air suspended particulate matter (particles called aerosols on meteorology) formed phenomenon of turbidity increases. ”
Feng Yin said that haze formed simply causes both inside and outside. Internal cause is emissions of pollutants. Particulate matter in the atmosphere is a cumulative process of industrial development, unreasonable energy structure and other issues have led to the current emissions of pollutants in the atmosphere is enough to form a haze, matched as long as weather conditions, dust haze appear. External causes are weather conditions, the horizontal movement of air to form wind, turbulent movement, which spread in favour of particulate matter. When the range of motion is small, static and stable weather, and accumulation of particulate matter in the atmosphere increasing haze forms. "This increase in haze weather and atmospheric dispersion conditions, static, steady last year great weather than last year. ”
Continued widespread fog haze formation in the near future, Shanghai Meteorological Administration experts, the climatic background in the first place, it itself is the haze of winter weather-prone season. Secondly, weak cold air from northern China in the near future, therefore less affected by the cold air of the South. Prolonged weak high pressure control in the region, atmospheric structure and stability, poor conditions of atmospheric dispersion, can easily cause pollutants to accumulate; coupled with sunny winters, radiative cooling can easily cause temperature inversion layer, high relative humidity, fog haze formed more easily.
It is understood that the December 1, our Middle East suffered widespread haze weather, Su-Wan-Hu, the most severe haze. The Central Meteorological Observatory experts said, and static stability of air pollutant emissions the weather was the main reason causing this haze weather.
The Central Meteorological Observatory chief forecaster He Lifu said the haze was this winter, our largest range of moderate to severe haze. He Lifu said, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other East China this occurrence range, long duration, up to 300 μg/m3 PM2.5 concentrations above the severe haze, rare indeed. Partly due to the cold fronts from the East into the sea after, denaturing high pressure in the East Coast, making ground moisture increases faster; partly because weak northerly winds in the early to late-weak West southerly, more conducive to the surrounding contaminants in this general area of collection.
"Although ' haze predict earthquakes ' argument is difficult to set up, but as we study the haze has provided a new perspective. Related experts can recommend from a larger perspective, multidisciplinary areas to strengthen research on haze. "One expert commented.
(Reporter Zhu Hong Li Yongning Yu Siluan Hu Anqi Cao Lingjuan Liu Yi)
This issue's column and Manpower: Yi LV
近日，一则“严重雾霾预示将出现大旱和频繁地震”的说法在网络上流传开来，引起种种疑虑。该观点认为，我国近期大面积、长时间雾霾现象的成因与地球软流层的活动有关，出现大范围雾霾后，地震、干旱等其他灾害也可能接踵而至。此说法科学吗？雾霾的成因与地质运动有关吗？记者采访了观点的提出者和其他有关专家。
大范围雾霾与地质活动有关？
【回应】 仅是猜测；目前尚无研究证明近期地球软流层特别活跃，水蒸气不太可能因此突然增多并导致雾霾
记者查阅发现，该说法源自姜冬梅在“天大研究院”网站发表《雾霾之后警惕大旱多震》一文。12月9日，记者联系到香港金融管理学院副院长姜冬梅教授本人。她认为，环境污染固然加剧了雾霾的外在表现，但却绝非雾霾根本成因。
姜冬梅引述中国地震局地球物理研究所研究员王健的软流层活动理论认为，地球软流层的活动可以解释大面积、长时间雾霾现象的成因。据了解，王健在2012年4月份发表的《地球内部深层次动因及其影响与气候变化》提出，地球软流层的涌动推动了板块运动，进而引起了地震、火山爆发、干旱等灾害现象频繁发生。(如图示)
记者查阅王健的文章发现，该文章没有提到地球软流层的涌动会导致雾霾的产生。
姜冬梅认为，依据王健的理论推导，在软流层活跃的情况下，地球软流层会使岩石圈释放出大量的水蒸气；而水蒸气积聚在近地面，结合大量的污染物后就产生了雾霾。除了雾霾，地震、干旱等其他灾害性现象也可能接踵而至，相关部门应提前做好准备。
对此说法，一位长期研究地震的专家告诉记者，目前研究还没有发现雾霾与地震的发生存在必然或显著联系。他表示，将雾霾现象与地震联系在一起比较牵强。
中国地震局地球物理研究所副所长张东宁认为，通常所说的地球内部活跃期，往往表现为火山地震多发。从固体地球物理学的监测看，最近十年火山地震比之前一段时间并无增加。“地球内部活动进入活跃期”的认定还缺乏证据，距离地表100多公里的软流层，目前也尚无研究证明其近期特别活跃。
张东宁介绍说，软流层又称为软流圈，温度在800℃至1500℃的范围，一般认为是岩浆的主要发源地。“漂浮”在它上面是一层低温、刚硬的岩石圈。目前的地震学观测和地热测量都显示，软流层的热量释放是一个非常缓慢而持续的过程，对地表的影响也是稳定的，水蒸气不太可能因此突然增多。由此，这次大范围持续雾霾也不太可能是这一因素导致的。
姜冬梅坦承，该理论到目前还是一种假说，尚缺乏足够的实践和事实依据。“把地壳运动等地理科学纳入雾霾等灾害性现象的研究是为了更全面地研究问题。”姜冬梅表示。
近期南方雾霾成因何在？
【回应】 雾霾不能简单用某个公式来表示；污染物排放量大和静稳天气是导致本轮雾霾的主要原因；雾霾需加强多学科研究
姜冬梅在文章中给出了雾霾产生的公式：雾霾=(80%以上的湿度+污染物)×逆温层。她认为，内地今年发生多次大面积雾霾，不可能仅仅由污染物传播导致。
上海气象局有关专家介绍，雾霾不仅与大气中的水汽、污染物浓度和逆温层有关，还与大气扩散条件(水平扩散和垂直扩散)、污染物输送条件和区域地理环境等因素有关，所以雾霾天气不能简单用某个公式来表示。
南开大学环境科学与工程学院冯银厂教授对雾霾产生的这一公式也不认同。“雾和霾是两个概念，雾是一种自然现象，在水汽充足、温度合适、大气层稳定的情况下，空气中的水汽便会凝结成细微的水滴悬浮于空中，称为雾。霾是人类活动造成的空气中悬浮的颗粒物(气象学上称为气溶胶颗粒)浓度增高而形成的浑浊现象。”
冯银厂说，霾的形成简单说来有内外两种成因。内因是污染物的排放。颗粒物在大气中是一个累积的过程，工业的发展，能源结构的不合理等问题导致目前大气中污染物的排放已经足以形成灰霾天气，只要气象条件吻合，灰霾就会出现。外因就是气象条件，空气的水平运动形成风，上下运动形成湍流，这些运动有利于颗粒物的扩散。当这些运动幅度都很小时，静稳天气出现，大气中累积的颗粒物越来越多，灰霾天就形成了。“今年雾霾天气增加和大气扩散条件差于去年、静稳天气多于去年关系很大。”
对于近期持续大范围雾霾天气的形成原因，上海气象局专家介绍，首先从气候背景来说，冬季本身就是雾霾天气多发的季节。其次，近期北方冷空气弱，所以南方受冷空气影响也较弱。区域内长期受弱高压控制，大气层结稳定，大气扩散条件差，容易造成污染物积累；加之晴好的冬季，辐射降温容易造成近地层逆温，相对湿度高，更容易形成雾霾天气。
据了解，12月1日至8日，我国中东部遭遇大范围雾霾天气，苏皖沪等地的霾最为严重。中央气象台有关专家表示，污染物排放量大和静稳天气是导致本轮雾霾天气的主要原因。
中央气象台首席预报员何立富表示，此次雾霾是今年入冬以来，我国范围最大的中度到重度霾天气过程。何立富说，江苏、上海等华东地区此次出现范围大、持续时间长、局地PM2.5浓度高达300微克/立方米以上的重度霾，确实比较少见。一方面是由于冷高压从华东一带入海以后，变性高压处在东部沿岸，使得地面湿度增加较快；另一方面是由于前期弱的偏北风转为后期弱的偏西偏南风，比较有利于周边污染物在这一带地区汇集。
“虽然‘雾霾预示地震’的说法难以成立，但为我们研究雾霾提供了一个新的视角。建议我国有关专家可以从更大视野、多学科领域来加强对雾霾的研究。”一位专家评价道。
(本报记者朱虹李永宁喻思娈胡安琪曹玲娟刘毅)
本期栏目统筹：吕毅品
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