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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/16 0:35:39 For 4 consecutive years， China implemented “positive sound“ fiscal and monetary policies
Xinhuanet, Beijing, December 15 (reporters Han Jie and and Wang Peiwei)-the just-concluded central economic work Conference, a clear, 2014, China will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, since 2011, this is the fourth consecutive year "actively sound" fiscal and monetary policy mix.
Present why continue a positive tone for sound macroeconomic policies? Does not change the tone control next year under which new policies passed signals? Xinhua interviewed a number of experts.
Fiscal and monetary policies continue, "a little tight" with
Beginning in 2011, saying goodbye to the "active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" portfolio and implement "active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy". The relative expansion of fiscal policies, monetary policies relatively neutral policy mix continues to this day.
"The tone for fiscal and monetary policies unchanged for four years, with similar economic situation in recent years. "Treasury Director Jia Kang, said of the Finance Branch, under the impact of the international financial crisis, downside pressures and uncertainty facing the economic development in China to pursue a loose a tight regulatory policy, which helps guard against liquidity brought about by rising price pressures accumulated in previous years, has a better highlight the structure directing and increase effective supply.
"The continuation of the name does not mean the policy was unchanged. "Gao Peiyong CASS financial strategies for the Dean believes that as the economic situation changes, thinking there will also be new changes in macro-control. Currently existing inflationary pressures and as the representative of local government debt risk for financial risk will be the hands and feet of two major contradictions keep monetary policies, to achieve steady economic improvement in chorus with the proactive fiscal policy.
"Macro-control next year the tone remains unchanged, the overall look will pay more attention to promoting reforms and structural optimization. If the economy of greater external impact, policy will not disregard the ' sequel ' to stimulate short-term demand. "CICC Chief Economist Wensheng Peng said.
Fiscal policy: adjusting the expenditure structure to expand tax cuts
The central economic work Conference, a proactive fiscal policy next year to further refine the financial expenditure structure, economy, improve investment efficiency, comprehensive structural tax reduction policy, expand the camps to increase pilot sectors.
Said Gao Peiyong, active fiscal policy next year, you should focus on three factors, deficit, tax cuts and incremental. "The current economic reforms focused on reducing government intervention and let the market play a decisive role for resource allocation. Less Government is the best way to increase tax cuts, fiscal policy should tilt toward tax cuts next year, accelerating increase camp changed the process of reform. ”
"Next year fiscal policy should focus on the short-term and long-term combines, deepen reform of service overall. Is fully functional from the market point of view, fiscal policy should pay special attention to services for the transformation of government functions and reducing administrative examination and approval. "Jia Kang, said that when the economy is stable within a reasonable range, the macro-control should emphasize being stabilized, steady, but if the likelihood of slips out of range, will start the necessary policy plans.
Song Li, Deputy Director of national development and Reform Commission Economics Institute believes that fiscal policy focuses on optimizing expenditure structure next year. Human, structural adjustments and innovations, weaknesses in infrastructure and other areas will be the focus adjustment improve the expenditure structure. At the same time, increase the intensity of structural tax reduction, in addition to further expanding the camp to increase pilot should also be more burden on SMEs.
Monetary policy: stable being the focus on risk prevention and control
The central economic work Conference next year to maintain monetary credit and community raise, reasonable growth, improvement and optimization of financing structure and credit structure, raise the proportion of direct financing, promoting the reform of interest rate marketization and the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhanced efficiency of financial operation and service capabilities in the real economy.
Experts pointed out that the money pool has enough water, further easing would increase the risk of inflation, but also in the economic downward pressure on remaining cases cannot be tightened, sound would be the best choice for monetary policy next year.
"Under the pressure of economic downturn, maintain and raise a reasonable growth of credit is necessary, conducive to the promotion of the economy began to recover. "Song Li suggested that next year should optimize the credit structure, with a focus on increasing the proportion of credit for SMEs, changing the status quo of SMEs ' access to credit is difficult to.
Peng Wensheng said that by the end of November this year, broad money supply (M2), up 14. 2%, higher than the earlier target of 13% growth goals, is expected to end early will also grow faster than the target, which will undoubtedly add to pressure on Central Bank to control liquidity. Recent rise in market interest rates that the Central Bank's monetary policy has been tightened.
"Because of the shadow banking system and local government debts have continued expanding, and prevent financial risks increased pressure, pressure tightening macro-economic policy next year. At the same time, underlying inflationary pressures will limit the room for monetary easing. "Peng Wensheng said.
Application of changes in regulation: a short-term adjustment combined with the construction of major systems
Emphasizing fiscal and monetary policies next year no change in tone at the same time, central economic work Conference next year to be used in the spirit of reform, ideas and ways to improve macro-economic control, application of changes in regulation.
"This innovative presentation showed that short-term macro-economic control would be combined with the construction of major systems in the future. "Jia Kang, said that macro regulation and control mechanisms for involving construction, need reform package.
Song Li pointed out that the regulated amount of macro-control in the Western countries, mainly settlement cycle problems, China's macro-control and volume problems, structural and institutional problems are intertwined, to achieve industrial restructuring, no reform package, the macro-control is difficult to obtain the desired effect.
"To be effective in fiscal and monetary policy, financial supporting reform of the financial system. According to the regulation need to promote reforms on the one hand, on the other hand through the reform for the macro-control to create the perfect conditions. "Song Li said.
新华网北京12月15日电（记者韩洁、王培伟）刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议明确，2014年我国将继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，这是我国自2011年以来连续第四年实施“一积极一稳健”的财政货币政策组合。
当前为何要延续积极稳健的宏观政策基调？不变的基调下明年调控政策传递出哪些新信号？新华社记者就此采访了多位专家。
财政货币政策延续“一松一紧”搭配
2011年起，我国告别“积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”组合，转而实施“积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策”。这一财政政策相对扩张、货币政策相对中性的政策组合拳一直延续至今。
“财政货币政策基调之所以四年不变，与这几年类似的经济形势有关。”财政部财科所所长贾康说，国际金融危机冲击下，我国经济发展下行压力加大且面临种种不确定性，实行一松一紧的调控政策，既有利于防范前几年积累的流动性带来的物价上涨压力，也能更好突出结构导向，增加有效供给。
“名称的延续并不意味着政策是不变的。”社科院财经战略研究院院长高培勇认为，随着经济形势变化，宏观调控思路也会有新变化。当前存在的通胀压力和以地方债风险为代表的金融风险，会成为拖住货币政策手脚的两大矛盾，要实现经济稳中求进，还需借助积极的财政政策。
“明年宏观调控基调不变，整体看会更注重推进改革和结构优化。如果经济受到较大外在冲击，政策将不会不顾‘后遗症’来刺激短期需求。”中金公司首席经济学家彭文生说。
财政政策：调整支出结构 扩大减税力度
中央经济工作会议提出，明年积极的财政政策要进一步调整财政支出结构，厉行节约，提高资金使用效率，完善结构性减税政策，扩大营改增试点行业。
高培勇说，明年积极财政政策的变化，应关注三个因素，赤字规模、减税和增支力度。“当前经济体制改革重点是减少政府干预，让市场对资源配置起决定性作用。而减少政府干预最好的办法就是加大减税规模，明年财政政策应向减税倾斜，加快营改增改革进程。”
“明年财政政策应注重短期和中长期结合，服务全面深化改革大局。从市场充分发挥作用角度考虑，财政政策要特别注意服务于转变政府职能和减少行政审批。”贾康说，当经济运行稳定在合理区间时，宏观调控应强调稳字当头、稳中有为，但如果出现滑出区间的可能性，就要启动必要的政策预案。
国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长宋立认为，明年财政政策重心在优化支出结构。民生、结构调整和创新、基础设施薄弱环节等领域都会成为调整完善支出结构的重点。同时，应加大结构性减税力度，除了进一步扩大营改增试点，还应更多为中小企业减负。
货币政策：稳字当头 注重风险防控
中央经济工作会议提出，明年要保持货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长，改善和优化融资结构和信贷结构，提高直接融资比重，推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革，增强金融运行效率和服务实体经济能力。
专家指出，目前货币池子的水已经够多了，再放松会加大通胀风险，但在经济下行压力仍存情况下也不能收紧，保持稳健将是明年货币政策最好的选择。
“经济下行压力下，保持货币信贷和融资规模合理增长是有必要的，有利于促进经济稳步回升。”宋立建议，明年应优化信贷结构，重点增加面向中小企业的信贷比例，改变中小企业获得信贷很难的现状。
彭文生说，截至11月末，今年广义货币供应量（Ｍ2）同比增14．2％，高于年初预定的13％增速目标，预计全年最终增速也将高于年初目标，这无疑增加央行控制流动性的压力。近期市场利率上升表明央行货币政策已经在收紧。
“由于影子银行和地方政府债务规模持续扩大，防范金融风险压力加大，明年宏观经济政策存在趋紧压力。同时，潜在的通胀压力也会限制货币政策放松的空间。”彭文生说。
寓改革于调控：短期调控与重大制度建设相结合
在强调明年财政货币政策基调不变的同时，中央经济工作会议还提出明年要用改革的精神、思路和办法来改善宏观调控，寓改革于调控之中。
“这一富有新意的表述，表明未来短期宏观调控将与重大制度建设相结合。”贾康说，宏观调控涉及机制建设，需要改革配套。
宋立指出，西方国家的宏观调控重在总量调控，主要是解决周期波动问题，我国宏观调控则与总量问题、结构问题和体制问题交织在一起，要实现调结构，没有改革配套，宏观调控很难取得预期效果。
“要想有效发挥财政货币政策作用，需要财政金融体制改革的配套。一方面根据调控需要推动改革，另一方面通过改革为宏观调控创造好的条件。”宋立说。
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