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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/16 0:35:45 Foreign media say China GDP slowdown which led the world with win
As a highlight of the annual economic work, central economic work Conference, often unravel and discover the suspense by foreign media as an important opportunity.
Yesterday, at the closing, thoughtful foreign media quickly "blast", Chinese officials will be the third year in a row, "amidst" set the general tone for the economic work in the coming year.
For the coming year, the media focused interpretation of the important year is the blueprint of China's reform, on the path of reform in China, long reap will face painful choices, the economy will achieve slowly forward.
In this regard, this morning, "BRIC" father of Jim o ' Neill, a well-known economist said in an interview with the legal evening news reporter, although the pace slowed, but China's economy to achieve a qualitative leap. China on the path of sustainable economic development, and let the world rejoice.
If the slowdown in GDP was due, then the "consequences" will no doubt be more space ushered in China's reform, in this previous post closely, China was a "reform Opera", to achieve the balanced development of China and the world.
Suspect jumped out "numbers game" what kind of reform the space left?
Growth for the world's second largest economy desalination, raise various interpretation immediately.
United Kingdom, Reuters said during the central economic work Conference, officials did not disclose the specific objective of economic growth, but indicated that "safe" and "promote reforms." In this regard, the financial times noted that, when the market still clinging to a digital, policymakers seem to have been established on a reform course forward. The central economic work Conference, growth targets is not the focus. How to create a stable environment, third plenary session a series of reform measures, the main purpose of the meeting.
The article points out that investors may wish to jump out "numbers game" and pay more attention to this meeting on economic potential of specific reform measures. These measures will actually have an impact on different economic sectors and industries.
Reports said just recently, new standards for local officials check, stop comparing GDP growth heroes. China's move is aimed at rebalancing China's economy. While the view was expressed that, as the key to advancing the reform and adjusting economic structure next year year, appropriate downward economic growth targets, not only to the reform to create more space, also help to eliminate the market for the Chinese Government was still "way" concern.
Asia News Network commented that in the Economist on China to take "stronger and more specific" calls for reform in the tone of economic development in 2014 was held in China's central economic work Conference. Reports that 2014 will be implemented in China last month released "blueprint for reform" and "an important year".
Reports quoted official think-tank of the Chinese Academy of social sciences, Director of the Institute of quantitative and technical economy Li Ping said, to keep China's steady economic growth is China's top priority. In this condition, structural reform will push China into the next "new stage of growth."
Glimpse of GDP next year set the number is the right number?
Although China has not announced concrete GDP target value, but its still the bellwether of foreign media into China.
United States CNBC TV pointed out that while Chinese officials played down the economic growth target specific values, but GDP is seen as Chinese leaders seriously economic reforms unleashed by an important signal. It is also in the coming years, China's financial and monetary policies will face what "situation" an important indicator. Reports noted that of the image, the Chinese Government next year is to maintain 7.5%-'s growth was reduced to three, a pulse of this Conference next year, China's economy, "close call" iconic signal.
Report quoted Zhang Zhiwei, China Economist for Nomura pointed out that if the Chinese Government will cut its economic growth target next year to 7%, meaning that China will further tighten its monetary policy. And what is more important is, the Chinese Government will temporarily "put up with" as a result of the economic downturn, "short-term pain", while the realization of sustainable development of their economies. This "long-term pains reap" policy is also considered China's long-term policy stance in the future.
For the upcoming 2014 to make subjects ", strong economic" concept and growing Barclays Capital, predicted that China will cut economic growth in order to achieve the objective of controlling potential financial risks. China is committed to making the "rebalancing" the determination, will be reflected in next year's economic growth target, while 7% would be a suitable number.
Asia News Network quoted the views of economists said that China's economic growth has entered a "structural slowed" a new stage. By 2030, China's economic growth may slow to below 6%. The transformation of economic development pattern, China has reached a "can't slow down" of the State.
Economic policy should focus on "the quality and effectiveness of" growth, replacing the past pattern of short-term growth.
Effect gently and running, and winning World?
Global economic recovery is sluggish, the Chinese economy's direction has been the lifeblood of the world waiting on the sidelines. The Wall Street Journal said that generally no ambiguity about China's actual economic growth exceeds its economic growth target, but the world is still eyeing the Chinese Government's policy.
Chinese Government's "to-do list" in the "Preferences" are often hint at the direction of monetary policy, and cast in the context of global economic "China economic path."
Reports said that China's economy, "a fall into a" affects the global economy. China's high economic growth target is based on government investment and exports for a long time. And stick to high-growth means China will miss boarding the train for sustainable growth momentum. This train has provided effective economic power, could provide the economy with sufficient new jobs to ensure social stability.
By contrast, if China's economic growth target be lowered, China is likely to "bloated State" of State-owned enterprises "axe", seek the development of rational curves, will curb polluting enterprises, solve the problem of overcapacity. And this will promote China's "consumer-driven" growth pattern. Globally, this development will undoubtedly be useful.
United States think tank Brookings Institute fellow at Brookings Institution believes that due to China's economic transformation of the global economy and benefit from the upgraded version of economic reform. The next 5 years, China needs to import about $ 10 trillion of goods. The International Monetary Fund forecasts, if 7.5% economic growth in China this year, contributions to global economic growth rate will reach 27.76%. "Chinese economic upgrades" will contribute greatly to global economic recovery.
Expert analysis
"Father of the BRIC": debunk "unsustainable bubbles"
"BRIC" father of Jim o ' Neill told the legal evening news reporter, a famous economist, during the central economic work Conference, release the key signal not just on economic growth targets. For some time now, China's policymakers have clearly demonstrated its economic growth, China will focus more on quality rather than quantity of expansion. China is taking the right road and, even more important is, follow this path, can greatly reduce China's breeding "unsustainable bubbles" probability.
Further elaborated that, as Chinese officials put it, China is to achieve steady growth, so next year's GDP growth estimated at around 7.5%, there could be no big ups and downs. China's five-year plan to make China's future in the "quality" direction, and this aspect will not fundamentally change in the future.
O ' Neill said China's growing influence on the world, 2013, China's economic output is expected to reach more than $ 9 trillion, China's economy account for a growing share of global GDP. In addition, the impact of slowing economic growth in China and the world economy, one of the most likely will reduce the upward pressure on commodity prices. Which for many oil and other commodity imports in developed countries is a major positive news. And this will allow group of seven economies to achieve better development.
"Father of emerging markets": the beneficiaries will have to sacrifice
"Father of the emerging market," maipusi told reporters in 2014, for many emerging markets will be a very important year. And sustainable development of China also created plenty of opportunities for investors. On the reform of State-owned enterprises, mainly in improving the professionalism and effectiveness of its resource use, which makes their affiliates benefit equally. Encourage enterprises to innovate and prohibition of unfair competition will accelerate China's economic "rebalancing" away from the investment-led economic growth. This is conducive to China's development, "enterprise", "consumer-driven" and "service-oriented" models of economic development.
China's efforts in this regard, believes that China in 2014, will make progress in this regard. Dr maipusi further pointed out that we should also see that these reforms will no doubt have "sacrificed". Companies will face more intense competition, past Government-sponsored enterprises could also be affected.
Believe that in the new year, China will once again achieve significant economic growth. When the third plenary session of the reform "decisions" from now on, the implementation by 2020, compared to now, the Chinese economy will become more complex and more dynamic. As an investor, welcomes this prospect and will be looking forward to it.
Harvard expert: even while the slowdown is still located in fast-growing countries in the
Harvard University professor Dwight Perkins, Director of the Institute, told reporters said the East Asian economies, China's economic slowdown is largely due to China's rapid economic growth can no longer be supported in simple mode. China's economic slowdown is not due to China's policy on "significant mistakes", but because "struggling" trying to 9% each year a high rate of economic growth, will lead to a lot of ineffective investment, the end result will be China's economy is in even worse situations.
Perkins pointed out that this situation of China and Korea similar to the 90 's of the last century, when Korea 1997-1998 financial crisis in therefore. Unlike China, Korea over-investment boom was caused by the mistakes of large chaebol. At this stage of China's economy has begun to gradually "Swerve", especially on the household consumption as a share of GDP, as well as serious environmental issues. While China's slowing economy will help them right in time to correct these distortions.
Slowdown of China's economy does not mean the economy is no longer growing, growth or below international standards is increasing. China's economy slowed to 5% per cent, and still ranks among the fast-growing middle income countries.
This version of the article/reporter Li Shixiang
(Original title: jump out "numbers game" change spaces)
作为年度经济工作的重头戏，中央经济工作会议往往被外媒看做解开和发掘悬念的重要机会。
昨日，会议闭幕，细心的外媒迅速“爆料”，中国官方连续第三年将“稳中求进”设定为来年经济工作的总基调。
对于未来一年，媒体集中解读将是实现中国改革蓝图的重要一年，在中国改革的道路上，将面临长痛不如短痛的抉择，经济将实现缓步前进。
对此，今晨，“金砖四国之父”、著名经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔在接受《法制晚报》记者采访时称，尽管脚步放缓了，但是中国经济将实现质的飞跃。中国走在经济可持续发展的道路上，也让世界感到欣喜。
如果说GDP放缓是前因的话，那么“后果”无疑将是中国改革迎来了更大的空间，在这一前一后的紧密相连中，中国上演着“改革大戏”，只为实现中国乃至世界的平衡发展。
猜想 跳出“数字游戏”留下怎样的改革空间？
世界第二大经济体淡化增长，立即引发各种解读。
英国路透社说，在本次中央经济工作会议上，官方并没有公布具体的经济增长目标，而是表明在“求稳”的同时“促进改革”。对此，《金融时报》指出，在市场还在纠缠于数字时，决策者们似乎在既定的改革路线上前行。中央经济工作会议上，增长目标并非讨论重点。如何营造稳定环境、落实三中全会的一系列改革措施，才是此次会议的主要目的。
文章指出，投资者们不妨跳出“数字游戏”，更加关注本次经济工作会议可能出台的具体改革措施。这些措施会切切实实地对不同经济领域和产业产生影响。
报道称，就在最近，对当地官员考核的新标准，不再拿GDP增长论英雄。中国此举的目的就是要重塑中国经济。而有观点认为，明年作为推进改革和调结构的关键年，适当下调经济增长目标，不仅能给改革创造更大空间，也有助于消除市场对中国政府仍在“走老路”的担忧。
亚洲新闻网评论称，在经济学家一片中国需采取“更强、更具体”的改革呼声中，中国召开了定调2014年经济发展的中央经济工作会议。报道称，2014年将是实施上月中国公布的“改革蓝图”的“重要一年”。
报道援引中国官方智库社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所主任李平的观点称，保持中国经济平稳增长是中国的重中之重。而在这一条件下，进行结构性改革将会推进中国迈入下一个“增长新阶段”。
窥探 明年GDP 设定多少是合适的数字？
尽管中国没有公布具体的GDP目标数值，但是其仍为外媒窥探中国经济的风向标。
美国CNBC电视台指出，尽管中国官方淡化经济增长目标的具体数值，但是GDP目标被视为中国领导人严肃对待经济改革所释放出来的一个重要信号。它同时也是在未来一年内，中国的金融和货币政策将面临何种“境遇”的重要指标。报道形象地指出，中国政府明年是维持7.5%的经济增速还是将其下调至7%，成为本次会议把脉中国明年经济的“千钧一发”标志性信号。
报道援引野村证券中国经济学家张智威的观点指出，如果中国政府将明年的经济增长目标下调至7%，意味着中国将进一步收紧其货币政策。而更为重要的是，中国政府将暂时“忍受”由于经济下调导致的“短期痛苦”，而实现其经济的可持续发展。这种“长痛不如短痛”的政策也被视为中国未来长期的政策立场。
对于即将到来的2014年，以提出“克强经济学”概念而声名鹊起的巴克莱资本，也预测中国将下调经济增长速度，以此达到控制潜在金融风险的目标。中国致力于使得“经济再平衡”的决心，将体现在明年的经济增长目标中，而7%将是一个合适的数字。
亚洲新闻网援引经济学家的观点表示，中国的经济增长已经进入到了“结构性放缓”新阶段。而到2030年底，中国的经济增速可能放缓至6%以下。转变经济发展模式，中国已经到了“一刻不能延缓”的地步。
经济政策应该注重“质量性和有效性”增长，取代以往的短期高速增长模式。
效应 中国慢步走带动世界跟着赢？
全球经济复苏而低迷着，中国经济的走向一直是全球翘首观望的动力源。《华尔街日报》说，中国经济的实际增长一般而言都会毫无悬念地超过其制定的经济增长目标，但是，全球仍需紧盯着中国政府采取的政策。
中国政府的“任务清单”中的“优先选项”往往暗示了货币政策的走向，并能投射出在全球经济大背景下的“中国经济之路”。
报道称，中国经济的“一进一退”牵动着全球经济。中国高经济增长目标长期以来以政府投资和出口为基础。而坚持高增长意味着中国将错过登上可持续增长动力的列车。这一列车提供了有效的经济动力，能够为经济提供足够的、新的就业机会，确保社会稳定。
相反，如果中国降低经济增长目标的话，中国将可能向“臃肿不堪”的国有企业“开刀”，寻求合理性曲线发展，将会抑制污染企业，解决产能过剩的问题。而这将促进中国以“消费拉动”经济增长的模式。对全球来说，这一发展无疑是有益的。
美国智库布鲁金斯学会研究员李成认为，全球经济都会因中国经济转型和升级版的经济改革而获益。未来5年，中国需要进口10万亿美元左右的商品。国际货币基金组织预测，如果中国今年实现7.5%的经济增长，对全球经济增长的贡献率将达到27.76%。“中国经济升级版”将对全球经济复苏做出巨大贡献。
专家解读
“金砖四国之父”：中国戳穿“不可持续泡沫”
“金砖四国之父”、著名经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔告诉《法制晚报》记者，在本次中央经济工作会议中，释放的关键信号不仅仅局限于经济增长目标上。一段时间以来，中国的政策制定者已经向外界明确表明了在经济增长上，中国将更加注重质的发展而非量的膨胀。中国正在走正确的道路，更为重要的是，走这条道路，能够大大降低中国滋生“不可持续泡沫”的几率。
奥尼尔指出，正如中国官方所言，中国要实现平稳增长，所以明年的GDP增长估计仍将维持在7.5%左右，不可能出现大起大落。中国的五年计划使得中国未来朝着“重质量”的方向发展，而未来这一方面不会发生根本性的转变。
奥尼尔称，中国对世界的影响力越来越大，预计2013年中国的经济总量将达到逾9万亿美元，中国经济占据全球GDP的份额越来越大。此外，中国放缓经济增速对世界经济产生的影响之一，很有可能将减少商品价格的上行压力。而这对于很多石油和其他商品进口发达国家来说是一大利好消息。而这将使得七国集团国家经济实现更好的发展。
“新兴市场之父”：有受益者也会有牺牲者
“新兴市场之父”麦朴思告诉记者，2014年对于很多的新兴市场而言将会是非常重要的一年。而中国的可持续发展也为投资者创造了大量的机会。对国有企业的改革，主要集中在改善其在资源上的专业和有效性利用，这能够使得他们的子公司同样受益。而鼓励企业创新和禁止不公平竞争将加速中国经济“再平衡”，远离投资为导向的经济增长。这有利于中国发展“企业化”、“消费为主导”和“服务为方向”的经济发展模式。
中国一直在这方面努力，相信中国在2014年将在这方面取得进步。麦朴思博士进一步指出，我们也应该看到，在这一系列改革中无疑将会有“牺牲者”。企业将面临更加激烈的竞争，过去政府支持的企业也有可能受到影响。
相信在新的一年里，中国经济将再次实现可观的增长。当三中全会的改革“决定”从现在开始实施，到2020年，相比于现在，中国经济将变得更为复杂、更具活力。而作为投资者，将会对这一前景表示欢迎和期待。
哈佛大学专家：即使放缓仍可位于快速增长国家之列
哈佛大学东亚经济研究所主任德怀特·帕金斯教授对记者分析说，中国经济放缓很大程度上是由于中国高速的经济增长，不能再以简单模式来支撑。中国的经济出现放缓并不是由于中国在政策上有了“重大的失误”，而是因为如果还“苦苦支撑”纠结于每年9%高经济增长速率的话，将会导致很多的无效投资，最终的结果将是中国的经济陷入更为糟糕的境地。
帕金斯教授指出，中国的这一情况与韩国上世纪90年代相似，当时韩国因此陷入了1997至1998年的金融危机。当时与中国不同，韩国过度投资热潮是由于大型财阀的失误造成的。现阶段的中国经济已经开始逐渐“脱离正轨”，尤其是在家庭消费所占GDP的份额上，以及在严重的环境问题上。而中国适时地放缓经济将会帮助其矫正方向，改正这些扭曲的方面。
而放缓的中国经济并不意味着经济不再增长，或是以低于国际标准的增速在增长。中国的经济如果放缓到5%-6%，仍然使其位列快速增长的中等收入国家之列。
本版文/记者黎史翔
(原标题：跳出“数字游戏”留改革空间)
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