Go homepage(回首页) Upload pictures (上传图片) Write articles (发文字帖)
The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/16 0:35:56 Friction in Sino-Japanese experts debate East today， the Minister said without the use of force
China's reform effort, the Asia-Pacific are many variables
Global times 2014 annual special report on TER
Tokai friction, how far is it from the war
Tokai no full-scale war
Chen Xiaogong (former Deputy Commander of PLA air force, Lieutenant General): Although some fear misfires over the East China Sea, but did not appear to war situations in East Asia, but there are two issues that need attention. First, changes in the balance of power in East Asia, this change will bring order to the adjustment. How to ensure that this process of change and adjustment is peace, requires policymakers think.
Second, the region is characterized by many countries in the region there is a dispute over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, the resolution of these disputes getting more and more difficult, it is easy to fall into the security dilemma. How to solve the case of contradictions and differences to maintain stability in East Asia, but also need to think hard about.
Horinouchi-show time (Japan Embassy Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary in China): I frictions will escalate into a military conflict to the East China Sea are very surprised by this setting. Now tried to power to unilaterally alter the status quo and escalation in China, the Japanese side did not trigger military conflicts of ideas. To explore this topic, ignored the existence of the 1978 Sino-Japanese Treaty of peace and friendship, the Treaty expressly provided in the first section, confirm the mutual relationship between the parties to settle all disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to force or threat of force. Normalization is 41 years, I sincerely hope that the two countries at an early date back to the beginning of the strategic and mutually beneficial relations with each other to achieve common face, wandering around.
Romanian aid (Vice President of the Association of Chinese strategic culture and Secretary General, and major general): until now, to fight a full-scale war in China and Japan, not how many people agree with this judgment. But the possibilities of misfires event occurs there is, will it become a reality, restriction from all quarters. Minister thinks that China set up air defense identification zone, adding to tensions in the East China Sea, these military conflicts will arise, I do not agree with this view, because China's air defense identification zone is also being forced into it. Is Japan has proposed to make warning shots in the air defense identification zone, is likely to exacerbate crises; second, Japan the Prime Minister has signed a decree, when the other drones entered Japan's airspace, you can put it down. Japan's airspace is not Japan itself, but now the disputed Diaoyu Islands. Once our UAV regular patrols cordon near the Diaoyu Islands, Japan shoot down if this was fuelling conflicts?
Dai Xu (Academy of maritime security and cooperation): the current crisis Diaoyu Island dispute is expanding into the East China Sea, has changes from an island dispute between the Sino-Japanese strategic struggle. In this context, we now have military confrontation will determine the East China Sea, is first determined by the United States would allow Japan militarism go far, United States how mess mess the East China Sea; and then Japan how far you want to go, Japan to achieve a rearmament needed to East China Sea crisis as an excuse to finally depend on China to Japan militarism go far. These three factors determine the East China Sea crisis will evolve into a military conflict, as well as time, the intensity of the eruption and the end result.
China knows a district in crisis prevention
Irrigation ditches within the show for a long time: the practice of setting the air defense identification zone in China, is one contradiction, we opposed. Japan last century 60 's has been designated an air defense identification zone, for several decades there has been criticized by other countries, while China's air defense identification zone practices in content too, requiring all aircraft, including civil, corporate, military, you need to provide information to China, I think China is against the practice of free flight over the high seas right.
With regard to the Privacy Act led China worries that Japan took to the road of militarism, that is impossible. A country in terms of intelligence and of course there are confidential matters, but Japan information disclosure has been well in excess of information disclosure in China, Japan have now adopted national security meetings Act of Congress, and from there it is possible to see all internal Department of defense agencies. "Japan through the Privacy Act would lead to militarism" argument, I do not recognize. This argument, if set up, China was a big military country.
Romanian aid: China to build marine power must rush out the first island chain, now Japan constantly in the first island chain deployment forces wanted to seal our strategic channel toward the Pacific. By force of circumstance, self-defence, only we had to air defense identification zone, neighboring countries have a bottom line, is what places are free to fly, and where you are not going to, where you are allowed to pass. Before the China Air Defense identification zone, United States aircraft around frequently to our coastal reconnaissance, establish air defense identification zone is to tell them they can't do whatever they want. That is crisis prevention, it is not a contradiction, but crisis-prevention and control, to resolve the crisis. China set up air-defense identification zone is in fact play the role of firewalls, shock absorbers, have some peripheral security environment stabilized. China's comprehensive national strength increasing, you need a strategic buffer zone, you need to have a strategic early warning, that in itself is a manifestation of active defense, rather than passive defense.
Yang Yi (Rear-Admiral): international public opinion, believe China's growing power in changing the status quo, which is very wrong. A case study of South China Sea, within the jurisdiction of the South China Sea for thousands of years in China, Ming dynasty, decreed that, in 1947, the Republic of China promulgated "11 lines", line becomes section since the founding of new China, when no objections and demanded change. Why was considered to change the status quo in China now? Or because the two background, first, the United States in the Asia-Pacific strategic rebalancing and strengthening China's prevention and, secondly, the rise of so-called strong and rapid development of China added to the piece. United States implement strategic rebalancing, put pressure on China and other countries think that open up a contradiction between China and America seem to be contradictions. At the same time, rising China does everything is infinite zoom in the process, originally justified the Chinese are considered to be unreasonable.
Peng Guangqian (Forum on China's national security, Deputy Secretary-General, major-general): Japan can keep peace that does not depend on China, but Japan. Purchased the island staged a farce, it makes trouble, changing the status quo is Japan, not China. Abe took office, in the political far-right, desperately on the road to militarization of diplomacy, war cabinet "you go", Japan was once again the military crisis in the Asia Pacific region also. Japan today a revival of militarism is not accidental, postwar Japan militarism has never received the settlement; the second is the deliberate manipulation of Abe. Abe claimed to not only our biology, genes and political genes came from his grandfather, inheritance of class-a war criminals Kishi Nobusuke. Today, Abe leads Japan run along militaristic, has his internal logic.
Song Fangming (Kunlun, Executive Vice President of the China strategic Institute): Abe continues to challenge China's bottom line, also in the probe into United States, neighboring countries, the bottom line and put their opposition and people's bottom line, this is a dangerous course. In fact, now, Japan and South Korea economic dependency ratio is very high, play a pillar role in the economic prosperity in the Asia-Pacific. Japan and China in harmony will benefit both economies and the world economy, no need to go to that dead end, and the end of militarism.
Feng Zhaokui (China Academy of social sciences honors academician): Japan is a "height external rely on national", 96% of energy by imports, 73% of grain to by imports, Japan of one serving diplomat has said, Japan of maximum core interests is around environment stable, in around not enemies, guarantee sea channel security, now Ann times is runs counter to the, take "enemies diplomatic", caused around waters situation height tension, this on Japan is very dangerous of.
China strategically playing my first gun
Peng Guangqian: rationally speaking, Japan should not challenge China, which don't qualify for confrontation with China. Next year is a 120 years of Sino-Japanese war, Japan domestic mad clamor to relive "the Sino-Japanese war of glory", but today's China is not 120 years ago, the Qing dynasty, Japan nor the year of Japan. Japan strategic space, strategic resources are scarce, fragile economic structures, two out, and its military forces are, at best, a dependent, combat-oriented military force, with such independence, China has a strong strategic response capability is not on a grade. We do not want war, if Abe be blinded by lust for gain, misjudge the situation, will bury Japan in the future.
Feng Zhaokui: now is that Japan frequently provoked China, but was afraid to play; China has completed its preparations to fight, but don't want to play, I will fear no evil; United States is advised on both sides, because the State of Sino-Japanese relations are not at loggerheads on United States best, so United States attitude is not. Among the three United States attitude of the most critical, but the United States and Japan has been seeking alliances to each other determines the United States on the Diaoyu Island issue is actually standing in Japan, and Japan once the fight, United States Japan will "help" into a "State" will not stand idly by. China staunchly defended its sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands is not meant to challenge United States hegemony, in other words, China's "rights" does not constitute a United States "dimensional fighter" threatened United States don't need to as far away as several small islands across the Pacific, Japan paws, mess and China relations.
Song Fangming: the United States, a financial and economic hard times and on which war machine rich countries, to let it not on the military needs find a way out, it is impossible. Obama's "rebalancing" strategy is simply to see China's development momentum and the importance of Asia-Pacific, an expansionist military strategic adjustment, open up new economic growth in demand, so the United States does not have illusions of peace.
However, today than ever before, really beat up on the United States are unfavourable. Abe wanted to rely on militarism and save Japan, and he was on the Diaoyu Island issue, "betting", ostensibly for the United States, "trouble", is actually forcing United States "a noose", its not intended for "island", "untie" restore "normal country" treatment, then you can get rid of United States control, achieve its strategic ambitions. If the plot succeeded, hurt not only by China and its neighboring countries, United States interests may be the biggest losers, it will lose not only a "Crown Dependencies", and may create a "revenge match".
Yang Yi: safeguarding national interests, to be two sentences, first, the firm is to enhance comprehensive national power, including military force, and the courage to use the force's determination to safeguard national interests and the will and, secondly, a moderate, is to insist "reasonable, supportive," diplomatically. China is a great country, love peace and we hope that the peaceful settlement of disputes. The Diaoyu Islands issue, too, China does not want to fight, but not scared, we insist on the strategy the first shot, but never give the opponent a second chance. ▲ (Finishing this article from global times 2014 annual Conference "China's reform effort, the Asia-Pacific are many variables" third issue "East China Sea and the South China Sea will increase friction for military conflict? "Speak of the subject chaired by He Liangliang. )
中国改革劲，亚太变数多
环球时报2014年会特别报道之三
东海摩擦，中日距战争有多远
东海不会爆发全面战争
陈小工(原解放军空军副司令员、中将)：虽然一些人担心东海上空会擦枪走火，但目前东亚并没有出现走向战争的形势，只是有两个问题需要注意。第一，东亚地区的力量格局在发生变化，这种变化会带来地区秩序的调整。如何保证这种变化和调整是和平的过程，需要各国决策者认真思考。
第二，东亚地区一个特点是区域内许多国家间存在着领土主权、海洋权益纠纷，这些纠纷的解决难度越来越大，很容易陷入安全困境。如何在一时解决不了这些矛盾和分歧的情况下保持东亚地区稳定，也需要认真思考。
堀之内秀久(日本驻中国大使馆特命全权公使)：我对东海的摩擦会否升级为军事冲突这一设定感到非常惊讶。目前试图以实力单方面改变现状并使事态升级的是中国，日方丝毫没有引发军事冲突的想法。探讨这一话题，是否忽视了1978年《中日和平友好条约》的存在，该条约在第一条就明确规定，双方确认在相互关系中用和平手段解决一切争端，而不诉诸武力和武力威胁。日中邦交正常化已经有41年，我由衷希望两国能够早日重新回到战略互惠关系的起点，相互之间能够实现常见面、多走动式的关系。
罗援(中国战略文化促进会副会长兼秘书长、少将)：现在来看，中日要打一次全面战争，不会有多少人同意这种判断。但是双方发生擦枪走火事件的可能性是有的，它是否会成为现实，就靠各方制约。公使先生认为中国设立防空识别区，加剧东海紧张局势，会引发这些军事冲突，我不同意这个看法，因为中国设防空识别区也是被逼无奈。一是日本已经提出在其防空识别区内要打警告弹，很有可能加剧危机；二是日本首相已经签署命令，当别国无人机进入日本的领空时，就可以把它击落。这里的日本领空绝对不是指日本本土，而是现在有争议的钓鱼岛。一旦我们的无人机到钓鱼岛附近进行正常的巡逻警戒，被日本打下来，这是不是就激化了矛盾？
戴旭(海洋安全与合作研究院院长)：目前钓鱼岛争端正在扩大为东海危机，中日之间已经由岛屿之争变为战略之争。在这种前提下，我们现在要判定东海会不会发生军事冲突，首先取决于美国会允许日本军国主义走多远，美国要把东海乱局搞乱到什么程度；其次取决于日本自己想走多远，日本要实现重新武装，需要以东海危机为借口；最后取决于中国允许日本军国主义走多远。这三个因素决定了东海危机会不会演变为军事冲突以及爆发的时间、烈度及最后的结果。
中国设空识区属危机预防
堀之内秀久：中国这次设定防空识别区的做法，是在单方面加剧矛盾，我们持反对态度。日本上世纪60年代已经划了防空识别区，几十年没有受到其他国家的批评，而中国的防空识别区做法在内容上比较过分，要求所有的飞机，包括民间、公务、军事的，都需要先提供给中国信息，我认为中国的做法是在侵害公海上空的自由飞行权利。
至于这次保密法案导致中国担心日本走上军国主义之路，这是不可能的。一个国家在情报方面当然有需要保密的事情，不过日本的信息公开度已经大大超过中国的信息公开度，日本国会现在已经通过国家安全保障会议法，从那里人们可以看到防务部门的所有内部机构。所以“日本通过保密法案会导致军国主义”的说法，我并不承认。这种说法如果成立的话，中国已经是很大的军事主义国家。
罗援：中国要建设海洋强国就必须冲出第一岛链，现在日本不断在第一岛链部署军力，想把我们走向太平洋的战略通道封死。形势所迫，我们才出于自卫不得不设防空识别区，向周边国家划了一个底线，就是哪些地方可以自由飞行，哪些地方不许去，哪些地方经过允许可以通行。在中国没有设防空识别区之前，美国的飞机频频到我们沿海附近进行侦察，设立防空识别区就是告诉他们这些地方不能再为所欲为。这是危机预防，它不是加剧矛盾，而是预防危机，并控制、解决危机。所以中国设立防空识别区实际上是起到防火墙、减震器作用，会使我们周边安全环境趋于稳定。中国的综合国力在不断提升，需要一个战略缓冲地带，需要有一个战略预警区，这本身就是积极防御的一个体现，而不是消极防御。
杨毅(海军少将)：现在国际上存在一些舆论，认为中国利用不断增强的实力在改变现状，这是非常错误的。以南海为例，南海几千年来就在中国管辖内，明朝时就颁布法令，1947年民国颁布 “十一段线”，新中国建立后变为九段线，当时没有任何人反对和要求改变。现在中国为什么被看做在改变现状？就是因为两大背景，第一，美国在亚太的战略再平衡和强化对中国的防范；第二，中国的所谓强势崛起与快速发展加在一块。美国一推行战略再平衡，就把压力对准中国，其他国家认为有机可乘，中美矛盾似乎成为主要矛盾。同时，崛起进程中中国做任何事情都被无限放大了，本来有理的中国被认为是无理的。
彭光谦(中国国家安全论坛副秘书长、少将)：中日能不能和平下去，不取决于中国，而取决于日本。上演购岛闹剧，制造麻烦、改变现状的是日本，不是中国。安倍上台后，在政治极右化、外交军事化、内阁战争化道路上不顾一切地“暴走”，日本正再次成为亚太地区军事危机策源地。日本军国主义今天死灰复燃不是偶然的，一是战后日本军国主义从未得到应有的清算；二是安倍的蓄意操弄。安倍自称不仅自己的生物学基因，而且政治基因也来自他的外祖父、甲级战犯岸信介的遗传。今天安倍带领日本沿军国主义狂奔，是有他内在逻辑的。
宋方敏(昆仑策研究院常务副院长)：安倍在不断挑战中国的底线，也在试探美国、周边国家的底线，试探本国在野党和民众的底线，这是一条危险路线。其实，现在中日韩经济依存度非常高，在亚太经济繁荣中起支柱作用。日本如果和中国友好相处，对两国经济乃至世界经济都有好处，完全没必要走军国主义的那条死路和绝路。
冯昭奎(中国社科院荣誉学部委员)：日本是一个“高度对外依赖国家”，96%的能源靠进口，73%的谷物要靠进口，日本的一位现职外交官曾说，日本的最大核心利益就是周边环境稳定，在周边不树敌，保证海上通道安全，现在安倍却背道而驰，采取“树敌外交”，造成周边海域形势高度紧张，这对日本是非常危险的。
中国不会在战略上打第一枪
彭光谦：从理性上讲，日本不应该挑战中国，它不够资格跟中国对抗。明年是甲午战争120周年，近来日本国内有人疯狂叫嚣要重温“甲午荣光”，但今天的中国已经不是120年前的清王朝，日本也不是当年的日本。日本战略空间狭小，战略资源奇缺，经济结构脆弱，两头在外，其军事力量充其量是一种依附型、战役型军事力量，跟中国这样独立自主、有强大战略反击能力的国家较量根本不在一个档次上。我们不希望打仗，如果安倍利令智昏，错估形势，必将葬送日本的未来。
冯昭奎：现在的情况是，日本频频挑衅中国，但是不敢大打；中国已经做好了应战的准备，但不想打、也不怕打；美国是两边劝，因为中日关系不打不和的状态对美国最有利，因此美国的态度是不让打。在三者当中美国的态度最关键，但美日互有所求的同盟关系，决定了美国在钓鱼岛问题上实际上是站在日本一边的，而中日一旦开打，美国对日本必定会从“暗助”转变为“明帮”，决不会袖手旁观。中国坚决维护对钓鱼岛的主权，并不意味着要挑战美国霸权，换句话说中国“维权”不构成对美国“维霸”的威胁，美国犯不着为了远在太平洋彼岸的几个小岛，为日本火中取栗，搞砸和中国的关系。
宋方敏：就美国来说，一个财政经济日子不好过，又靠战争机器发财的国家，要让它不在军事需求上找出路，也不可能。奥巴马的“再平衡”战略，说白了就是看到中国发展势头和亚太重要性，进行一种扩张性的军事战略调整，开拓新的军事经济需求增长点，所以对美国不能抱有和平幻想。
不过，今天不如以往，真打起来对美国也不利。安倍想靠军国主义救日本，他在钓鱼岛问题上是“押宝”，表面上替美国“闹事”，实际是逼美国“上套”，其意图不在“争岛”，而在“松绑”，恢复“正常国家”待遇，然后就可以摆脱美国控制，实现战略野心。如果这个阴谋得逞，受伤害的不仅仅是中国和周边国家，美国可能是最大的利益受损者，它不仅会失去一个“附属国”，而且可能造就一个“复仇对手”。
杨毅：维护国家利益，要做到两句话，第一，坚定有力，就是增强包括军事力量在内的综合国力和敢于使用力量维护国家利益的决心与意志；第二，适度有节，就是坚持“有理、有利、有节”，讲究策略。中国是泱泱大国，热爱和平，我们希望和平解决纠纷。钓鱼岛问题也是这样，中国不愿意打，但是也不怕打，我们坚持不在战略上打第一枪，但绝不给对手打第二枪的机会。▲(本文整理自环球时报2014年会“中国改革劲，亚太变数多”第三议题“东海、南海摩擦会上升为军事冲突吗？”的发言讨论，该议题由何亮亮主持。)
赞