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The author:(作者)aaapublished in(发表于) 2013/12/16 0:40:40 National basic old-age insurance personal accounts empty account exceed 2.6 trillion
Slowed expansion of basic old-age insurance personal accounts empty account over 2.6 trillion yuan
Wang Ling
[The potential for expansion of basic old-age insurance system less, relying on rapid maxillary expansion to control the rising dependency ratio of basic old-age insurance system for urban employees has grown harder]
Released yesterday, the development of Chinese pension insurance report 2013 (hereinafter the report) showed that increasing numbers of national basic old-age insurance rate is slowing, old-age insurance fund revenue growth of 22 provinces. At the same time, urban workers ' basic old-age insurance personal accounts empty account continued to expand, more than 2.6 trillion yuan. This means that basic old-age insurance payments will further increase in the future.
Expansion slows
According to the report, by the end of 2012, urban workers ' basic old-age insurance general staff size of 304 million, in 2011, of 7.17%, but growth was slower than the previous year's 10.44%. For 230 million in the number of insured workers, rose 6.57%, the growth rate fell 4.58%; retired number for 74.4568 million people, over 9.07%, the growth rate increased 0.81%. Toll personnel growth tapers, pension growth rate of increase in the number, this was a reduction lead to urban workers ' basic old-age insurance system dependency ratio increased from per cent in 2011 to 32.4%.
Urban and rural residents of basic old-age insurance (that is, the new rural pension insurance and endowment insurance of urban residents) extending coverage rate decline trend also emerged. According to Department statistics, 2012, urban and rural residents of basic old-age insurance reached 484 million persons, pensioners the number reached 134 million people, are higher than the significant growth in 2011. But compared with the growth rate of the previous year, but fell sharply, down and 169.47%, respectively.
The report analyses, mainly due to the number of rural residents of basic old-age insurance has been relatively high percentage of the total number of insured, enlarged surface potentials in a steep decline, and basic endowment insurance of urban residents expanded slower.
China's basic old-age insurance system for empty account huge amount, sustainability of doubt causes a great deal of controversy, but judging from the running data, income is consistently greater than expenditures. But in fact, this condition is very large due to the expansion of the collection is greater than the surface, that is, constantly improving insurance coverage arising from fee increases led to basic pension income greater than expenses.
Relevant contents of the report the author, Associate Professor of the Chinese Academy of social sciences, the World Center for social security studies Sun Yongyong analyses said data indicate potential for expansion of basic old-age insurance system is shrinking, continue to rely on rapid maxillary expansion to control the rising dependency ratio of basic old-age insurance system for urban workers getting more and more difficult.
In addition, the reporter found in field research, in order to expand the coverage of local government, to acquiesce in, condoning and even encouraging individual enterprises to reduce contribution rates, end system can continue storing up problems.
Sun Yongyong believes that expansion work temporarily improve the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees of financial sustainability, and will add to future pension liabilities and future liabilities of the increase. He suggested that the next expansion goal should be to have the ability to pay workers, and adhere to the unity of the premium rate. At the same time, establish a scientific mechanism for parameter adjustment, enhance the sustainability of the entire system.
Personal accounts empty account continued to increase
According to Department statistics, cumulative accounting 2012 basic old-age insurance for urban employees personal accounts amounted to 2.9543 trillion yuan, from 2011 18.84%. At the same time, pilot for a number of years of personal accounts do indeed work hard, 2012 a real personal accounts of the pilot provinces in the Fund's income amounted to 72.2 billion yuan, a total make of personal account fund income for 349.9 billion yuan.
In this terms, discounting solid investing individual account funds in personal accounts empty account remains more than 2.6 trillion yuan. 2012 basic old-age insurance for urban employees accumulated balances of 2.3941 trillion million. This means that even if the accumulation of urban workers ' basic old-age insurance fund for all funds are used to fill personal accounts will still be a shortfall.
Analysis of Sun Yongyong, make personal accounts very difficult. Because this 2.3941 trillion fund balance, scattered in all provinces of the country and fund balances in the various provinces there are significant regional differences.
2012, urban workers ' basic old-age insurance fund revenue reached 2.0001 trillion yuan, up 18.39% over the previous year, the growth rate fell 7.51%. Specific to the provinces, there are 22 provinces fund growth was beginning to decline, which fell 53.35% in Ningxia, Qinghai and Hubei respectively fell by five and 49.1.
Another set of data are also interesting: the 2012 national urban workers ' basic old-age insurance fund balance growth fell sharply in the period, down 71.68%. Provinces with nearly half of urban workers ' basic old-age insurance balance negative growth in the period. Among them, the Ningxia reduction of 89.96%.
"Can not use money to fill the empty account of Liaoning, Guangdong, so do personal accounts very difficult indeed. And it is still facing a lot of problems, such as the rate of return of the Fund, and so on. " Sun Yongyong said.
18 in the third plenary session of the previous caliber "to be true personal account" adjustment for "perfect personal accounts", expresses the continued to insist on personal account accounts in the name of the signal. Social Sciences social security research center Zheng Bingwen, Director of the world, says that under current conditions of high growth in China, it is on account of personal account fund investment could not have been higher than the average wage in society increases in investment income, even the CPI cannot conquer, individual account funds in greater benefits, the greater the loss.
基本养老保险扩面速度放缓个人账户空账超2.6万亿元
王羚
[ 基本养老保险制度扩面的潜力越来越小，依靠快速扩面来控制城镇职工基本养老保险制度赡养率的上升难度越来越大 ]
昨日公布的《中国养老金保险发展报告2013》(下称《报告》)显示，全国基本养老保险参保人数的增加幅度正在放缓，22个省份的养老保险基金收入增速下滑。同时，城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户空账继续扩大，超过了2.6万亿元。这意味着，未来基本养老保险的支付压力将进一步加大。
扩面速度放缓
根据《报告》，截至2012年底，城镇职工基本养老保险总参保人数为3.04亿，2011年增加了7.17%，但增速慢于上一年的10.44%。其中参保职工人数为2.3亿，比上年增长6.57%，增速回落了4.58个百分点；离退休人员数量为7445.68万人，比上年增长9.07%，增速提高了0.81个百分点。缴费人员增速下降，领取养老金人数增速增加，这一增一减导致城镇职工基本养老保险的制度赡养率由2011年的31.65%上升到32.4%。
城乡居民基本养老保险(即新型农村养老保险和城镇居民养老保险)也出现扩大覆盖面速度下滑的态势。根据人社部统计，2012年城乡居民基本养老保险参保人数达到了4.84亿人，领取养老金人数达到1.34亿人，都比2011年有显著增长。但与上年度的增速相比，却有急剧下滑，分别下滑了169.47个百分点和161.68个百分点。
《报告》分析，主要原因是农村居民基本养老保险参保人数占应参保人数的比例已经比较高，继续扩面的潜力在急剧下降，而城镇居民基本养老保险扩面速度比较缓慢。
中国的基本养老保险制度因为空账数额巨大、可持续性存疑等原因导致很多争议，但从运行数据来看，收入一直大于支出。但事实上，这种收大于支的状况很大原因是扩面，也就是说，持续提升的参保覆盖率带来的缴费人员增加导致基本养老保险收入大于支出。
《报告》相关内容的作者、中国社科院世界社保研究中心副教授孙永勇分析，上述数据表明基本养老保险制度扩面的潜力越来越小，继续依靠快速扩面来控制城镇职工基本养老保险制度赡养率的上升难度越来越大。
除此之外，记者在实地调研中发现，不少地方政府为了扩大覆盖面，不惜默许、纵容甚至鼓励个别企业降低缴费率，最终为制度的可持续埋下隐患。
孙永勇认为，扩面工作暂时提高了城镇职工基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性，同时将加大未来的养老金支付责任，加大制度的未来负债。他建议，下一步扩面的目标应该是有相当缴费能力的劳动者，并坚持保险费率的统一性。同时，建立科学的参数调整机制，增强整个制度的可持续性。
个人账户空账持续加大
据人社部统计，2012年城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户累计记账额达到29543亿元，比2011年增加了18.84%。同时，试点了许多年的个人账户做实工作推进艰难，2012年13个做实个人账户的试点省份中，基金收入共计722亿元，累计做实个人账户基金收入为3499亿元。
以此计算，即使减去做实的个人账户基金，个人账户空账依然超过2.6万亿元。2012年城镇职工基本养老保险基金累计结余额为23941亿元。这就是说，即使把城镇职工基本养老保险基金积累的所有资金都用于填补个人账户，仍然会有缺口。
孙永勇分析，做实个人账户的难度非常大。因为这23941亿元基金结余分散在全国各个省份，且各省份基金收支状况存在很大的地区差异。
2012年城镇职工基本养老保险基金总收入达到20001亿元，比上年增长18.39%，增速下降了7.51个百分点。具体到各个省份，全国有22个省份基金收入增幅开始下滑，其中宁夏下滑了53.35个百分点，青海和湖北分别下滑了49.1个和42.06个百分点。
另一组数据同样引人注意：2012年全国城镇职工基本养老保险基金当期结余增速急剧下滑，下降了71.68个百分点。有近一半的省份城镇职工基本养老保险当期结余出现了负增长。其中，宁夏减少了89.96%。
“不可能用广东的钱去补辽宁的空账，所以做实个人账户的难度非常大。而且做实之后依然面临一大堆问题，比如基金的收益率问题等等”。孙永勇说。
十八届三中全会将以往口径中的“做实个人账户”调整为“完善个人账户”，传递出继续坚持个人账户名义记账的信号。社会科学院世界社保研究中心主任郑秉文也表示，在中国目前的高增长条件下，实账上的个人账户基金投资几乎不可能取得高于社会平均工资增幅的投资收益，甚至连CPI都跑不赢，个人账户基金越大，福利损失就越大。
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